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Android growth prior to iPhone 5 launch further established market dominance

post #1 of 176
Thread Starter 
Smartphones running Android saw double-digit marketshare gains in the third quarter as Apple?s iOS lost substantial ground, leading one analyst to question whether Google's OS could be in a position to take over the entire market.

Galaxy S III


In a note to investors on Monday, Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co. said that Android?s market share rose to 72.4 percent in September, up from 64.1 percent quarter-to-quarter, while Apple saw its share slip to 13.9 percent from 18.8 percent over the same period.

Wolf was quick to point out that Apple's numbers were likely impacted by hesitant consumers who put off new iPhone purchases ahead of the iPhone 5?s September release. However with Android now accounting for almost three-fourths of the market, the analyst speculated that the smartphone industry may soon become a one-horse race.

?As we have discussed in previous reports, we think a ?winner-take-all? outcome is possible, but highly unlikely,? wrote Wolf, who last week said that the launch of Google Maps on the iPhone was a ?mixed blessing? for Apple.

Struggling smartphone maker RIM saw BlackBerry market share rise from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent, but that figure was still less than half of the company?s 11 percent stake a year ago. Microsoft's Windows Phone share decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent as consumers held out for the October release of Windows Phone 8.

As for the hardware market, Wolf said Samsung was the clear winner after taking a a 32.4 percent share on shipments of 54.1 million units, a 129 percent year-over-year increase from 23.6 million units in the third quarter of 2011.
post #2 of 176

Apple is doomed.

"We're Apple. We don't wear suits. We don't even own suits."
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"We're Apple. We don't wear suits. We don't even own suits."
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post #3 of 176
Why publish this crap?
post #4 of 176
LOL. "One horse race." Even if that happens, and there is effectively no more competition, the Fandroids will never, ever say "Google needs competition."

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #5 of 176
Meanwhile iOS still has more traffic than Android by almost 2:1 for phones and 9:1 for tablets.

When Android internet traffic passes iOS, then they can claim the smartphone or tablet crown. Until then they don't "own" anything.
post #6 of 176
I still would rather have a iPhone that is fairly resilient to malware attacks compared to the Android system which as I we all know is just as hackable as Windows 95 was when it first came out and you are constantly seeing exploits that hack the system even further.

People are really taking a big risk with anything that has to do with the Android system, from banking to their personal information.
post #7 of 176

Windows poised to take over PC market....
Android posed to take over smartphone market...

Apple to continue making all the profits.

Does that about cover it?

post #8 of 176
Use Lightning adapter as an model, Apple could do the unthinkable: License iOS to OEM's
post #9 of 176
So, just because the last quarter android sold 70pc of smartphone sales, we assume android's marketshare is about 70pc? Please... Kill yourselfs. First of all, samsung did not sold all those units, then android did not sell like that, then apple never sold as many phones as they do now, then the difference between the iphone and the others was never as big, developers prefer iOS more and more.... Just wait until the market saturates. Apple was never as good as it is now, please stop publishing crap.
post #10 of 176

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 9:54am
post #11 of 176
Not the first time Charlie Wolf "cried wolf."

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #12 of 176

The headline doesn't seem to accurately describe the information they cited. In the quote below, he's just acknowledging the possibility in an extremely skeptical tone. This is one of those times where I feel like I've been trolled by Appleinsider.

 

Quote:

 

?As we have discussed in previous reports, we think a ?winner-take-all? outcome is possible, but highly unlikely,? wrote Wolf, who last week said that the launch of Google Maps on the iPhone was a ?mixed blessing? for Apple.

post #13 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

Meanwhile iOS still has more traffic than Android by almost 2:1 for phones and 9:1 for tablets.
When Android internet traffic passes iOS, then they can claim the smartphone or tablet crown. Until then they don't "own" anything.

Another shift of the goal posts.

 

Here's a brief history of claims on this site:

1. Android phones will never sell in Apple's new market.

2. Android will never outsell iOS.

3. No single company will sell more phones than Apple.

 

Do you see the trend?  The business model for Android lends itself to market domination, and whether or not you want to believe it, Android will control the smartphone market within a couple years.  But Apple is not going anywhere.  Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!

post #14 of 176
Implying that Apple might disappear completely from the market is quite a stretch.

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #15 of 176

A 5 dollar whore, standing on your average street corner, is going to blow more guys in one night than the exclusive upscale whore who works in a classy hotel. Who makes more money per night?

 

Everybody knows that Android phones cater to the lowest common denominator, the broke ass customer who hardly uses their phone as a smart phone and customers who have gotten their phones for free or in BOGOF deals.

 

As long as Apple is around, Android will never take over the smartphone market, what a stupid assertion to make. Apple still has the best devices, the best ecosystem, the best support, the best customer satisfaction and the best apps/software. Hundreds of millions of people use iOS devices.

 

It's not, and it shouldn't be Apple's goal to own all of the smartphone market. As long as Apple holds a decent piece of it, selling their premium devices, then all will continue to be fine. Apple should not enter the business of making junk for junky people.

post #16 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by sennen View Post

Apple is doomed.

This analyst is basing his information on the Pre-iPhone 5 introduction in a slow quarter.  COMPLETE IDIOT.

 

Apple's ALWAYS builds up pent up demand during the 2 to 3 months prior to a major product announcement.  It has already been stated that a lot of corporations that are currently using RIM are going to go with iPhones. 

 

Sorry, but this analyst is a complete IDIOT.  He probably went to a Samsung event and got drunk off the wrong Kool Aid.  Sorry, but this guys is completely wrong.

 

I would say that it's probably a 60/40 split, THAT I could believe.  It's still to early to tell since Apple is STILL signing up cell carriers.  Still way too pre-mature.

post #17 of 176
... and this is why I think Apple is serious about diversifying the iPhone lineup. expect an iPhone Nano next year.
post #18 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Another shift of the goal posts.

 

Here's a brief history of claims on this site:

1. Android phones will never sell in Apple's new market.

2. Android will never outsell iOS.

3. No single company will sell more phones than Apple.

 

Do you see the trend?  The business model for Android lends itself to market domination, and whether or not you want to believe it, Android will control the smartphone market within a couple years.  But Apple is not going anywhere.  Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!

I see Android controlling the cheap smartphone sales, that I would believe, but there isn't much money in that market segment.  How many Android phone mfg are there?   I think I counted about 20.  Only maybe 4 or them sell enough to make a OK profit, so I see a LOT of fall out with Android mfg., but then again, most of them don't make much money.  The Nexus products that Google has private labeled, don't make Google hardly any money.  There's not money in private labeled products at those price points.

post #19 of 176
interesting that
%u2022 you can't eat turnover
%u2022 usage of smartphones is surely consuming web services
%u2022 dominating usage, dominating profits... one horse race..
post #20 of 176
Good for android. Wake me up when usage share or profit share matches the SHIPMENT share.
post #21 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by sennen View Post

Apple is doomed.

They didn't mentioned that Dell announced they were getting out of the smartphone business, so that's one Android/Windows phone maker getting out, because there isn't any MONEY for them.  One down, who's next?

post #22 of 176
It makes sense that the late adopters would lean towards cheaper Android handsets, especially in countries without carrier subsidies, but some of those people will get iPhones when they realize how bad the cheaper devices are. My sister has a Samsung Android phone that needs to be constantly plugged in because the battery only holds out for a few hours. Her next phone will be an iPhone, and I doubt she'd ever get another Samsung, no matter how good the high-end models appear to be.
post #23 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Why publish this crap?

I wouldn't post this crap either.  I would wait until at least 3 or 6 months after Apple's iPhone announcement, because they usually pound a lot of sales  in that time frame.


Sept, is the worst quarter of the year because most people are on vacation.  The Christmas and March quarters are typically much bigger than the Summer quarter for the high tech industry.

post #24 of 176
Apple makes most all of the profits and dominates web traffic.

Android's gains were just prior to release of iPhone 5 when Apple customers were awaiting a new product release. That gives a really distorted view.

Apple appears to be selling iPhones about as fast as they're able to make them. The overall market for smartphones is exploding. Apple's sales are rising.
post #25 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post

Use Lightning adapter as an model, Apple could do the unthinkable: License iOS to OEM's

Don't be silly. That will never happen.

post #26 of 176

 

... but what is the aggregate?

 

Even if Android users are on par using cellular data but below iOS on wifi; is the average of these two figures still 2:1 for iOS for web browsing? This is the quest for eyeballs so it is important to know this.

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post #27 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Another shift of the goal posts.

 

Here's a brief history of claims on this site:

1. Android phones will never sell in Apple's new market.

2. Android will never outsell iOS.

3. No single company will sell more phones than Apple.

 

Do you see the trend?  The business model for Android lends itself to market domination, and whether or not you want to believe it, Android will control the smartphone market within a couple years.  But Apple is not going anywhere.  Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!

 

I think that Tim Cook has a different perspective on market share than Steve Jobs. (Hell, for all I know, Steve Jobs may have starting thinking more about market share)

 

I think that Tim Cook is devising a plan to take back market share. Larger phones, smaller phones, cheaper phones, even better OS, killer app... who knows*. I do think though that we will have an answer in the next 3 months.

 

*No, not licencing

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post #28 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post

Use Lightning adapter as an model, Apple could do the unthinkable: License iOS to OEM's
I hope not. Then we'll see the same kind of fragmentation that you see with Android now. Worse, other vendors will be sorely tempted to add in their own malware and tweaks that will change the iOS experience. When that happens, Apple will be hurt not the third-party vendors.

Not a good idea in my opinion.
post #29 of 176

Laughable if it weren't a bit sad. According to your link, Android users are so stupid or the interface is so bad that they can't figure out if they're on wifi. And they are likely to be poorer (therefore less likely to afford wifi).

Thanks for clarifying something that I always suspected.
post #30 of 176
Should have added: the 2:1 ratio originally quoted still stands.
post #31 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I think that Tim Cook has a different perspective on market share than Steve Jobs. (Hell, for all I know, Steve Jobs may have starting thinking more about market share)

I think that Tim Cook is devising a plan to take back market share. Larger phones, smaller phones, cheaper phones, even better OS, killer app... who knows*. I do think though that we will have an answer in the next 3 months.

*No, not licencing

Again, market share is not Apple's goal. However, if there is a profitable segment, Apple will investigate and enter if/when they have a viable product.
post #32 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!

Yet, how do you explain that far fewer developers have apps for Android?
post #33 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Again, market share is not Apple's goal. However, if there is a profitable segment, Apple will investigate and enter if/when they have a viable product.

 

I'm glad to see we have someone on the forum from Apple's inner circle.

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post #34 of 176
OK, I'm officially going to stop wasting my time reading stories like these...

The iPhone 5 was introduced in late September... That month, of course, is an anomoly... To extrapolate a long-term prediction from the particular month is total folly...

Android has the unit shipments, but a TINY percentage of web traffic... Why? A big chunk of Android sales are low-cost devices being sold into developing markets... Apple continues to hold the advantage in leading markets, in both smartphones and tablets... Android is giving Apple a run for their money to be sure - competition is great! - but analysts who write stories like these are either incredibly lazy or on the take from hedge funds and short-sellers...
post #35 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Laughable if it weren't a bit sad. According to your link, Android users are so stupid or the interface is so bad that they can't figure out if they're on wifi. And they are likely to be poorer (therefore less likely to afford wifi).
Thanks for clarifying something that I always suspected.

 

Most of the Android users I know are never on WiFi, even when it's freely available to them at, say, work. Most of them keep the WiFi turned off to "conserve battery", I guess on the theory they have to stay on cellular to get their texts.

post #36 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

A 5 dollar whore, standing on your average street corner, is going to blow more guys in one night than the exclusive upscale whore who works in a classy hotel. Who makes more money per night?

 

Everybody knows that Android phones cater to the lowest common denominator, the broke ass customer who hardly uses their phone as a smart phone and customers who have gotten their phones for free or in BOGOF deals.

 

As long as Apple is around, Android will never take over the smartphone market, what a stupid assertion to make. Apple still has the best devices, the best ecosystem, the best support, the best customer satisfaction and the best apps/software. Hundreds of millions of people use iOS devices.

 

It's not, and it shouldn't be Apple's goal to own all of the smartphone market. As long as Apple holds a decent piece of it, selling their premium devices, then all will continue to be fine. Apple should not enter the business of making junk for junky people.

By paragraph

 

(1) As a user of Apple products rather than an Apple shareholder, I couldn't care less whether Apple, Google, Samsung or whoever is making more money. I care about the quality of the products I use, not whose pockets are being filled. (Though I resent the Ad-intrusive means inherent to Google's business model.)

 

(2) Utter nonsense. Android succeeds in terms of marketshare because it competes in every sector. From the high end, where top Samsung models are selling reasonably well against the iPhone, to the bargain basement - and everything in between.

 

(3) What's a 'take over'? Android could well 'take over' the smartphone market to the same extent and, gallingly, in exactly the same manner as Windows did. Sure they never eradicated Macs from the face of the earth, and it still a thriving platform. But things got worse for Mac Users as the Mac's marketshare shrank. Major developers who'd written great software for the Mac first, began to give more priority to PC versions - understandably. At the moment developers, for well rehearsed reasons, prefer iOS - it's a huge factor in making it a superior platform. But if marketshare trends continue, they will switch attention to Android first.

 

Apple needs a less expensive smartphone. They showed in the development of the iPod range (which retained market dominance), that they could compete at lower price points than top end - without their products feeling cheap - indeed some of their best designed iPods were in their mid-range nano/mini models.

 

 

(4) To value people by the products they use, or in many cases using the only devices they can afford, shows incredibly shallow judgment.

post #37 of 176

The basic conclusion in the link is that Android users are poor and don't have WiFi and can't afford surfing the web on their devices.  That may be true, but it doesn't suggest that Android is winning the mobile war.  It suggests to me that Android users have an Android phone because they needed a phone and their phone company provides an android phone.  

 

The droves of Android users may be no more likely to stick with Android in the long run than the users of Nokia or RIM were.  What makes a device platform "sticky" is if you purchase and use software specific to the platform (e.g. buy and store music and apps).  In this sense, Apple is more like Microsoft than Android is.  

 

This will continue to be a two-horse race.  Apple will sell devices that people want and Google will continue to service devices that cell phone companies want to give away.  

post #38 of 176
Such analysts are just stuck in the paradigm they understand, and not the one we are in. Follow the money.

1. Apple takes most of the profits from the handset market.
2. iOS delivers more ad revenue both per user and in total.
3. iOS users spend more on apps than on other platforms.
4. iOS developers earn more on apps than on other platforms.

And don't forget ...

iOS isn't just the iPhone. It's the iPad and the AppleTV.
post #39 of 176
What should we learn from this story ?

Place a mole in a successful company and steal their ideas ?

That is the world al about isn't it. Stealing.

I pisssssss on Android.
post #40 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Another shift of the goal posts.

Here's a brief history of claims on this site:
1. Android phones will never sell in Apple's new market.
2. Android will never outsell iOS.
3. No single company will sell more phones than Apple.

Do you see the trend?  The business model for Android lends itself to market domination, and whether or not you want to believe it, Android will control the smartphone market within a couple years.  But Apple is not going anywhere.  Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!

Exactly.

Both platforms will exist.

So other than providing the headline "Android dominates over the iPhone" what is the result from all of this?

Android will have a bigger slice on the market share piechart... and Apple will sell millions of iPhones every week and makes a crap-ton of money doing it.

Am I missing something? It's been like that for years.

If anything... it proves that the #2 is still an OK place to be.... the scrappy little underdog 1smile.gif
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