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Android growth prior to iPhone 5 launch further established market dominance - Page 4

post #121 of 176

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Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:03am
post #122 of 176

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Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:03am
post #123 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

But your premise could only be correct if the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android.  Think about that for a minute before replying.

 

It's difficult to know what you mean by "your premise", but there's nothing in what I wrote that depends on "the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android." If Android can't retain customers because people don't really like it and the phones don't really work that well, it doesn't matter what heights their market share reach before it collapses.

post #124 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

 

You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.

 

I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.

I read the thread, and I think the numbers speak for themselves.

post #125 of 176

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Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:02am
post #126 of 176
Getting heated huh? Few points.

1) Apple is safe in tablets. I don't think that anybody will take their lead. The only competitors are giving it away, keeping the other Android competitors at bay.
2) Apple is safe in the US
3) this 75% is one quarter. The installed base is about even.

That's the good news. Bad news is that 75% in one quarter will quickly become the installed base.

Solution is simple.

Cheap phones or licence iOS. To those of you who oppose the licensing of iOS because they make $200 on iPhones now - the answer is the margins on the cheap phones will be about $50. And licensing saves brand dilution on the phone if not, necessarily the OS. It gives an advantage to HTC or whomever when competing against Android clones. Whether that beats "free" is a guess. Possibly not ( and if not Windows is also fucked).

The purists here oppose cheap Apple phones. Get real. It may not apply to the US - it may not even happen in the US ( no need to dilute the brand there) but it is needed elsewhere. Unlocked phones off contract will avoid the pitfalls of competing on the shelves of carrier companies where the salesman gets a commission because google is sharing revenue, and the carriers are making money from their installed apps.

Cheap PAYG phones can be sold simless in any electrical shop - or anywhere - and you get a microsim when and where you need it. A different carrier every month if you can transfer numbers. Selling outside carrier shops puts Apple back in the driver seat, and we know they plan this because they wanted programmable sims.

They probably have been as surprised as anybody by Androids ascendancy - the meteoric rise so far. I think they will bite the bullet on cheap iPhones when some other product takes up the slack on margins. Cough. Tv. Cough.
Edited by asdasd - 12/18/12 at 4:23pm
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post #127 of 176
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
…it is needed elsewhere.

 

Wealthiest corporation on the planet.

Breaks its own sales and profit records every single quarter. 

"Needed."

Originally Posted by helia

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Originally Posted by helia

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post #128 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Yet, how do you explain that far fewer developers have apps for Android?

iPhone owners have more disposable income.


Edited by hentaiboy - 12/18/12 at 4:16pm
Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
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post #129 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Wealthiest corporation on the planet.
Breaks its own sales and profit records every single quarter. 
"Needed."

We're talking market share. However if profits be your thing, here's a history lesson for you.

There once was a very rich American company which had huge profits in the PC business even though it had only 12% of the market share at peak , not much less than Apple in mobile share now , huge loyalty and massive retention rates. In fact the loyalty was such that most of that 12% continued to buy that companies computers many years later; however nobody else did having never had a chance to buy the stuff cheaply. So when, a few years on, the market increased fourfold the company found itself at 3% of the market, and developers left in droves, share price and profits collapsed.

I know because I was that soldier.

Sorry. Sorry carried away there.

Apple was that soldier.

The market is factoring in apple repeating history again which is why the p/e ratio sucks.

Apple is, I hope, wiser than its apologists.
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post #130 of 176
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
We're talking market share.

 

And developers refuse to build stuff for Android because of the rampant piracy and lack of money spent there.

 

Pretty sure Apple's gonna do just fine without a $100 off-contract phone, given that those people wouldn't be buying apps in the first place.

Originally Posted by helia

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Originally Posted by helia

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post #131 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Dayum! There is $450 worth of parts, manufacturing and other stuff in every 16GB iPhone?
That's kinda crazy!

 

Pretty close.   People constantly talk about the Bill of Materials and then say things like, "Well there's also R&D", but nobody calculates the total figures.   So I did, using the best available information:

 
Trial documents have recently revealed that Apple makes an average 53% gross profit margin on a $640 iPhone.  In other words, $340 is their raw revenue after paying $300 for the parts, manufacturing, packaging, shipping, and patent licenses per device.
 
Of that $340 gross per phone, Apple financial statements indicate that about $20 goes to overall Apple R&D, $50 to pay for Apple employees and buildings and sales and ads, and $70 is put aside for both actually paid and possible taxes if Apple ever decides to bring overseas earnings back to the US and pay taxes on it... leaving a nice net profit of $200 (30% net margin) per phone.
 
Summary: Out of the $640 Apple sells each iPhone for, $300 goes to making it, $140 goes to corporate costs and tax, leaving $200 or more clear profit to stick in the bank.    

Edited by KDarling - 12/18/12 at 5:25pm
post #132 of 176

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Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:02am
post #133 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

You're citing a subset of network usage stats from a single company as the only reliable source in the world while all else is suspect?  That's rich.

 

Here's a summary of sources from my links:

 

Strategy Analytics

ABI Research

Informa

IDC

Jefferies

UBS Investment Research

Analysis International

Pew Research

 

What specific aspects of their methodologies do you take exception with, and how did they respond when you wrote them to explain their failures?

 

And in the case of IDC, UBS, and possibly Jefferies, would you kindly explain why you take exception with them here, but accept any similar stats they offer when they favor your preferred brand?

 

So, people are buying Android tablets, they just never take them anywhere or actually, you know, use them? Right, that must be it.

 

So, you can trot out all the names you want, unless they are conflating shipped with owned, the numbers are fiction.

 

But, the more important point is that Android is a house of cards, a confusing OS on cheap hardware, and people just don't like it that much. They also don't invest in the ecosystem, so there's really no barrier at all to abandoning it. And that's exactly what they do.


Edited by anonymouse - 12/18/12 at 7:47pm
post #134 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

And developers refuse to build stuff for Android because of the rampant piracy and lack of money spent there.

Pretty sure Apple's gonna do just fine without a $100 off-contract phone, given that those people wouldn't be buying apps in the first place.

To be fair that is a good point. We just don't know how many people buy apps at low end devices or how sticky the ecosystem is. But that merely kicks the can down the road. In future these devices will be more powerful and have better apps and better lockin. Apples future is secure if it aims for about 30% of the market. If iOS users are twice as likely to buy as Android users then ios will be the first choice of devs. It needs cheaper iPhones to compete worldwide though.
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post #135 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

To be fair that is a good point. We just don't know how many people buy apps at low end devices or how sticky the ecosystem is. But that merely kicks the can down the road. In future these devices will be more powerful and have better apps and better lockin. Apples future is secure if it aims for about 30% of the market. If iOS users are twice as likely to buy as Android users then ios will be the first choice of devs. It needs cheaper iPhones to compete worldwide though.

I've read all your posts and I still don't understand why Apple needs so much market share.

Android is already "dominating" the smartphone space with something like 75%... and Apple at 14%.

Why does Apple need a higher number to survive? Why is market share the be-all-end-all path to success?

Earlier you suggested that Apple needs to either sell dirt-cheap phones... or license iOS. That's a good way to gain market share... but Apple is a hardware company.

Sure... iOS could gain market share... but at the same time undermine Apple's core business of selling hardware. An HTC phone running iOS would be a slap in the face to Apple's entire philosophy.

Look at the Mac. It has NEVER had a huge amount of market share against Microsoft PCs in 27 years. Yet the Mac is still around today. Hell... Apple's laptops start at $1000... when you can get a decent Windows laptop for half that. Clearly Apple has chosen profits over the mythical market share advantage.

Why can't the same be true for phones?

I just don't see what's so wrong with being a profitable 2nd place...

.
Edited by Michael Scrip - 12/19/12 at 1:05am
post #136 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

 

Because lots of people are still buying their first smartphone. Android's troubles begin when all those users have been churned through. Apple's sales keep growing too, so it's not like people have stopped buying iPhones. The point is that, from what I've seen, Android is simply unable to retain users, and, "its market share keeps growing," doesn't address that issue.

I think you give the average consumer too much credit. Most Android users that I know, and I seem to be surrounded by them, have no idea about the underlying OS that powers their phones. Sure, they hear about Android, but what they generally see when using their phones are Samsung TouchWiz, HTC Sense, Motorola MotoBlur, etc. The interface overlays are what average consumers associate with their phones. So when they get frustrated by an HTC phone with Sense they use their upgrade on a Samsung phone with TouchWiz. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but most people I know don't switch from Android to Apple. Instead, they switch to a different Android phone running a different interface overlay. I'm the only person that I personally know to have made the switch from Android to Apple.

post #137 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vital0gy View Post

I think you give the average consumer too much credit. Most Android users that I know, and I seem to be surrounded by them, have no idea about the underlying OS that powers their phones. Sure, they hear about Android, but what they generally see when using their phones are Samsung TouchWiz, HTC Sense, Motorola MotoBlur, etc. The interface overlays are what average consumers associate with their phones. So when they get frustrated by an HTC phone with Sense they use their upgrade on a Samsung phone with TouchWiz. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but most people I know don't switch from Android to Apple. Instead, they switch to a different Android phone running a different interface overlay. I'm the only person that I personally know to have made the switch from Android to Apple.

 

I think you have to be talking about geeks. No one, and I mean no one, I know, other than geeks, who has or has had an Android phone has any idea what TouchWiz, MotoBlur or Sense are. They don't even know that there are differences between Android phones. Some of them didn't even understand the difference between Android and iOS (or know what they were) when they first got their phone.

 

They know they have Android, they can probably tell you who made their phone (although, they may answer with the carrier name, and these are intelligent people, mostly, they just have other things on their minds), but, if any of them told me they had a Samsung phone and I asked them how they liked TouchWiz, they would not have the slightest idea what I was talking about. Average users have no clue about these different UI variations. I have never known anyone but a geek switch from one Android brand to another, and the smart ones switch to iPhone, it's sort of like an IQ and rationality test.

post #138 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

I've read all your posts and I still don't understand why Apple needs so much market share.
Android is already "dominating" the smartphone space with something like 75%... and Apple at 14%.
Why does Apple need a higher number to survive? Why is market share the be-all-end-all path to success?
Earlier you suggested that Apple needs to either sell dirt-cheap phones... or license iOS. That's a good way to gain market share... but Apple is a hardware company.
Sure... iOS could gain market share... but at the same time undermine Apple's core business of selling hardware. An HTC phone running iOS would be a slap in the face to Apple's entire philosophy.
Look at the Mac. It has NEVER had a huge amount of market share against Microsoft PCs in 27 years. Yet the Mac is still around today. Hell... Apple's laptops start at $1000... when you can get a decent Windows laptop for half that. Clearly Apple has chosen profits over the mythical market share advantage.
Why can't the same be true for phones?
I just don't see what's so wrong with being a profitable 2nd place...
.

What you forget is

a) Apple barely survived low marketshare as a company.
b) Other companies in the mobile sector will fail - that is go out of business - because of low market share which eventually means lower profits. Do you think RIM are in a good position? Or Windows? Or - changing to manufacturers - Nokia?
c) The devs will follow the market eventually, making Android apps first or only, feeding back into lower market share for iOS as people who want certain apps flock to the main platform.

It's a platform. I remember when the iPhone first passed out blackberry in market share in the US and nobody was making "market share doesn't matter" comment. It was "RIM are doomed" comments. And they are, pretty much. If the BB10 doesn't sell they will wind up. That marketshare switch happened merely 2 years ago. Although this quarter Q4 will see Apple retrench somewhat the kind of growth which sees a platform go from 0% to 75% in a matter of 4 years will see that platform increase to 90+% in another 4, assuming a slowdown in market share growth.

But none of this needs explaining. If windows 8 gets 3% of the market this quarter we will be pretty sure that it is doomed. Market share matters to Apple as much as its competitors.
Edited by asdasd - 12/19/12 at 6:56am
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post #139 of 176
As for licencing - Apple can only licence from a strong position not a weak one. When the Mac OS 9 was being licencened as Apple bled losses it cost the company. Had they licenced in 1992 they could have won market share before Windows 95 ended their chances. Everything is faster now. Apple is about where they were in 1992 in PC's. Huge margins , low teens market share, an inferior competitor at about 70% and rising. A few years later and they were nearly bust.

It's not exactly the same now. Apple is bigger in the US, and in tablets. But close.

But for licencing I think a licence to sell a co-branded device - not a free for all but ablicence for certain certain companys - in a certain region : Russia, Asia, Africa will work.
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post #140 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vital0gy View Post

I think you give the average consumer too much credit. Most Android users that I know, and I seem to be surrounded by them, have no idea about the underlying OS that powers their phones. Sure, they hear about Android, but what they generally see when using their phones are Samsung TouchWiz, HTC Sense, Motorola MotoBlur, etc. The interface overlays are what average consumers associate with their phones. So when they get frustrated by an HTC phone with Sense they use their upgrade on a Samsung phone with TouchWiz. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but most people I know don't switch from Android to Apple. Instead, they switch to a different Android phone running a different interface overlay. I'm the only person that I personally know to have made the switch from Android to Apple.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

The Android market share numbers are not really cause for concern. Outside of the 1st world, Android sale are largely irrelevant. In the 1st World, they mostly represent new smartphone users who don't understand what they are getting into, don't realize there are real differences between phones, and get Android phones pushed on them by fast talking carrier sale people. (Sure, there are a few tech geeks who are rabidly into Android, but their actual numbers are so tiny as to be of no consequence.) In tablets, Android isn't even a significant player, so irrelevant.

These people do not get invested in the Google/Android ecosystem in any significant way that hinders their switching, and in large numbers they are switching, as their contracts come up for renewal, to iPhone. This is happening with every Android user I know but for a tiny handful of geeks who think they are cool rooting their phones. Just today, I found out another one I know switched. A person who always talked about how great their Android phone was. (Confirmation bias, obviously.) And not only did they buy an iPhone, they bought an iPad mini at the same time. Now they talk like they always had an iPhone, about how great it is to Face Time with their niece.

It may come as a surprise to many of you, but I don't go around trying to convert these people to Apple users. I just observe what they are using and how they use it. Although, pretty soon it seems, if I don't significantly expand the circle of my acquaintance, I'm not going to know any Android users.

Android may well find it's ascendancy ephemeral because the platform just doesn't seem to be able to hold users.

A lot are switching from Android to Apple as well. It's no longer the rooting crowd only. Younger people like the increased sophistication and flexibility. Still no swipe typing on iOS.
post #141 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

As for licencing - Apple can only licence from a strong position not a weak one. When the Mac OS 9 was being licencened as Apple bled losses it cost the company. Had they licenced in 1992 they could have won market share before Windows 95 ended their chances. Everything is faster now. Apple is about where they were in 1992 in PC's. Huge margins , low teens market share, an inferior competitor at about 70% and rising. A few years later and they were nearly bust.
It's not exactly the same now. Apple is bigger in the US, and in tablets. But close.
But for licencing I think a licence to sell a co-branded device - not a free for all but ablicence for certain certain companys - in a certain region : Russia, Asia, Africa will work.

 

There's not going to be any licensing.

post #142 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr2012 View Post


A lot are switching from Android to Apple as well. It's no longer the rooting crowd only. Younger people like the increased sophistication and flexibility. Still no swipe typing on iOS.

 

Yes, a lot are switching from Android to Apple, in significant and increasing numbers. Besides a few tech bloggers who think it's worth page hits to write about, very, very, few people ever switch from Apple to Android. So few that the number is negligible.

post #143 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Yes, a lot are switching from Android to Apple, in significant and increasing numbers. Besides a few tech bloggers who think it's worth page hits to write about, very, very, few people ever switch from Apple to Android. So few that the number is negligible.

I'm not sure there's any basis to your claims especially since you also have to account for Android growth. There's a lot of new users but where's the data on switchers?
post #144 of 176

Anonymouse, do you have  any  stats to back up your previous posts  or are your comments based on opinion and/or on your personal experience?  

post #145 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr2012 View Post


I'm not sure there's any basis to your claims especially since you also have to account for Android growth. There's a lot of new users but where's the data on switchers?

 

I made it pretty evidently clear that I'm basing these "claims" on my personal observations, among a group of what I believe are fairly typical consumers of my acquaintance, and among whom I've made no effort to influence their decisions. (I have seen a handful of studies that support these observations, but I don't have links to any of them, so I'm not citing them here.) The most interesting part of the process is that there are absolutely no ecosystem ties that make the process of switching "painful" for these people. This I believe is a key point, that people are not at all invested in an Android ecosystem. This is completely different than, say, Windows, where the investment in software, or absence  of particular software, made it difficult or painful for people to switch. That isn't the case with Android at all. If anything, many of these people, even while using Android phones, had more of an investment with Apple's ecosystem, through iTunes, than they ever developed with Android. Their Android investment amounted to at most, a few free apps, perhaps a gmail account (which doesn't tie them anywhere) and that's pretty much it.

 

The points are that,

 

* Android users establish no ties to Android

* They generally find using Android and the hardware it runs on a frustrating experience, for various reasons

* They switch to Apple because they just want their phones to work without fuss and confusion

post #146 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

 

I think you have to be talking about geeks. No one, and I mean no one, I know, other than geeks, who has or has had an Android phone has any idea what TouchWiz, MotoBlur or Sense are. They don't even know that there are differences between Android phones. Some of them didn't even understand the difference between Android and iOS (or know what they were) when they first got their phone.

 

They know they have Android, they can probably tell you who made their phone (although, they may answer with the carrier name, and these are intelligent people, mostly, they just have other things on their minds), but, if any of them told me they had a Samsung phone and I asked them how they liked TouchWiz, they would not have the slightest idea what I was talking about. Average users have no clue about these different UI variations. I have never known anyone but a geek switch from one Android brand to another, and the smart ones switch to iPhone, it's sort of like an IQ and rationality test.

I'm not implying that they know the name of the overlay, e.g. Sense, TouchWiz, etc. On the contrary, they have no idea that they have anything other than a "Droid" phone. But, anecdotally, I've witnessed several people bounce from one Android manufacturer to another because they didn't like how their phone functioned. They never blamed it on Android, but on their particular phone manufacturer. None of these people are geeks. The geeks I know with Android either root their phone or prefer a Nexus devise with stock Android. I've had one employee switch from an HTC Thunderbolt to an iPhone 5, but she isn't happy with the reduced screen size and is contemplating a switch back to Android with a Galaxy Note II. For some people, it truly is all about screen size. My elderly parents each have an Android phone because the larger screen sizes are easier on their eyes. I'm not going to denigrate their IQ or rationality as suggested for a consumer device choice. I enjoy my Apple products, but I don't expect the world to conform to my viewpoint.

post #147 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vital0gy View Post

I'm not implying that they know the name of the overlay, e.g. Sense, TouchWiz, etc. On the contrary, they have no idea that they have anything other than a "Droid" phone. But, anecdotally, I've witnessed several people bounce from one Android manufacturer to another because they didn't like how their phone functioned. They never blamed it on Android, but on their particular phone manufacturer. None of these people are geeks. The geeks I know with Android either root their phone or prefer a Nexus devise with stock Android. I've had one employee switch from an HTC Thunderbolt to an iPhone 5, but she isn't happy with the reduced screen size and is contemplating a switch back to Android with a Galaxy Note II. For some people, it truly is all about screen size. My elderly parents each have an Android phone because the larger screen sizes are easier on their eyes. I'm not going to denigrate their IQ or rationality as suggested for a consumer device choice. I enjoy my Apple products, but I don't expect the world to conform to my viewpoint.

 

The comment about IQ or rationality was meant to apply only to geeks, who ought to be able to objectively evaluate the quality of the respective OS's and hardware.

 

You sample is apparently even more naive than mine, not knowing anything at all about the phones they bought, but it does confirm my observation that the people who end up with Android are typically those who know less about what they are getting into.

post #148 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

What you forget is
a) Apple barely survived low marketshare as a company.
b) Other companies in the mobile sector will fail - that is go out of business - because of low market share which eventually means lower profits. Do you think RIM are in a good position? Or Windows? Or - changing to manufacturers - Nokia?
c) The devs will follow the market eventually, making Android apps first or only, feeding back into lower market share for iOS as people who want certain apps flock to the main platform.
It's a platform. I remember when the iPhone first passed out blackberry in market share in the US and nobody was making "market share doesn't matter" comment. It was "RIM are doomed" comments. And they are, pretty much. If the BB10 doesn't sell they will wind up. That marketshare switch happened merely 2 years ago. Although this quarter Q4 will see Apple retrench somewhat the kind of growth which sees a platform go from 0% to 75% in a matter of 4 years will see that platform increase to 90+% in another 4, assuming a slowdown in market share growth.
But none of this needs explaining. If windows 8 gets 3% of the market this quarter we will be pretty sure that it is doomed. Market share matters to Apple as much as its competitors.

Companies go out of business when they run out of money... not because of their ranking on a market share chart.

But since you like charts... here is the preliminary forecast of the Top 5 OEMs for 2012:

Smartphones
28% Samsung
20% Apple
5% Nokia
5% HTC
5% RIM

ALL Phones
29% Samsung
24% Nokia
10% Apple
6% ZTE
4% LG

Apple is 2nd place in global smartphone sales... and 3rd place in ALL phones sold in the world... 20% and 10% respectively. That's actually not bad considering they only make one new phone a year... and it's a rather expensive phone.

Smartphone Platforms
75% Android
14% iOS

Those particular numbers might look scary... but hold on.

Apple made $8.2 billion in profit last quarter. That's an incredible number whether they are in 1st place or last place. That's why I don't think market share ranking is a big deal.

Apple may be a distant 2nd on that chart... but they are not having a yard sale to liquidate their assets.

Yes... I think RIM is in trouble. They are having trouble moving units and they are laying off people at an alarming rate.

Apple isn't. They are selling iPhones as fast as they can make them. They are hiring more employees. They are building a new headquarters to house them all. Apple is the complete opposite of RIM.

The developer situation is interesting. Android has outsold iOS for quite some time... but there haven't been too many Android-exclusive apps that I'm aware of. We're at the point now where most of the "top 100" apps are on both platforms... but there are still quite a few iOS-exclusive apps.

Android handsets are supposedly selling a million per day. That's a lot of units. But I can't recall any developer who dropped iOS in favor of Android. I think the iOS ecosystem is still a massive draw for developers.

This article sheds some light on it: http://www.knowyourmobile.com/features/1639307/android_vs_ios_a_developers_perspective_on_the_big_two.html

Drawback to developing for Android include: fewer paying customers, piracy, less-mature APIs, device inconsistency, and Android version adoption.

This is just one developer's experience... but clearly something is going on. With so many Android devices out in the world... you'd think developers would be fawning all over Android.

So... Android outsells iOS... but developers prefer iOS anyway. And Android phones outsells iPhones... but Apple still makes a healthy amount of money.

Maybe that's just how it will be.
post #149 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

 

I made it pretty evidently clear that I'm basing these "claims" on my personal observations, among a group of what I believe are fairly typical consumers of my acquaintance, and among whom I've made no effort to influence their decisions. (I have seen a handful of studies that support these observations, but I don't have links to any of them, so I'm not citing them here.) The most interesting part of the process is that there are absolutely no ecosystem ties that make the process of switching "painful" for these people. This I believe is a key point, that people are not at all invested in an Android ecosystem. This is completely different than, say, Windows, where the investment in software, or absence  of particular software, made it difficult or painful for people to switch. That isn't the case with Android at all. If anything, many of these people, even while using Android phones, had more of an investment with Apple's ecosystem, through iTunes, than they ever developed with Android. Their Android investment amounted to at most, a few free apps, perhaps a gmail account (which doesn't tie them anywhere) and that's pretty much it.

 

The points are that,

 

* Android users establish no ties to Android

* They generally find using Android and the hardware it runs on a frustrating experience, for various reasons

* They switch to Apple because they just want their phones to work without fuss and confusion

 

So basically, your claims on this matter are based on your own personal experience and what you see around you rather than actual documented evidence?  If someone came into this thread and posted an opposite opinion purely based on what they see their acquaintances doing, I'm pretty sure you'd be crying "Where's your evidence?".  Pretty typical of yourself and these forums really.  Pro-Apple - "whatever we say is evidence".  Neutral or anti-Apple - "anecdotal evidence is not enough".  Double standards at its finest.

post #150 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

You sample is apparently even more naive than mine, not knowing anything at all about the phones they bought, but it does confirm my observation that the people who end up with Android are typically those who know less about what they are getting into.

 

I can't say whether that's true of the larger population, but some people I know are doing their homework and choosing Samsung anyway. To use my daughter as an example, she understands most of the differences, but they are things that don't matter to her. She has no interest in Airplay, doesn't see a need for iCloud, and after smashing the screen of an iPod Touch TWICE is not moved by claims that Apple hardware is better quality.

 

Things that DID matter to her were the larger screen on the Samsung, the fact that she could get it for a fraction of the cost of an iPhone (she's young and poor), and that the plan she wanted is not available for the iPhone.

post #151 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by reefoid View Post

 

So basically, your claims on this matter are based on your own personal experience and what you see around you rather than actual documented evidence?  If someone came into this thread and posted an opposite opinion purely based on what they see their acquaintances doing, I'm pretty sure you'd be crying "Where's your evidence?".  Pretty typical of yourself and these forums really.  Pro-Apple - "whatever we say is evidence".  Neutral or anti-Apple - "anecdotal evidence is not enough".  Double standards at its finest.

 

You don't have to accept it. I made it abundantly clear what I was basing it on and I did not in any way pretend that I was basing it on some sort of objective third party study.

 

You don't even have to believe it. Whether you or I believe it or not won't change what's happening. However, I'm as convinced of this as a real problem for Android as I was a couple of years ago that Flash had 2-5 years of life in it. I look around, I see what's happening, I trust my instincts. If you choose to believe otherwise, you're free to. I think the problem for Android is very real. Frankly, I'm just fine with you and everyone else not believing it, because, then, nothing will be done about it, which I'm also totally fine with.

post #152 of 176
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

…and that the plan she wanted is not available for the iPhone.

 

What plan was that?

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply
post #153 of 176

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:02am
post #154 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

The developer situation is interesting. Android has outsold iOS for quite some time... but there haven't been too many Android-exclusive apps that I'm aware of. We're at the point now where most of the "top 100" apps are on both platforms... but there are still quite a few iOS-exclusive apps.

 

Yep, the major apps are on both platforms.  (The only one I'm missing on Android is the iOS Optimum online app that lets me watch TV on my iPad.)  

 

One major difference is that Android has lots of interesting control apps and widgets.  Stock iOS doesn't allow such things.

 


Android handsets are supposedly selling a million per day. That's a lot of units. But I can't recall any developer who dropped iOS in favor of Android. I think the iOS ecosystem is still a massive draw for developers.

 

The biggest problem with any market is getting people to find your app.   In the Apple App Store, half of US app revenue goes to just 25 developers.

 

At the same time, I've read of a few developers dropping Android because of not getting enough returns there, either.

post #155 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

...and that the plan she wanted is not available for the iPhone.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

What plan was that?

 

I don't remember the details. Her carrier had some deal on a combination of minutes, data and add-ons that appealed to her, but it wasn't available for the iPhone. I don't know why. I have long since given up trying to understand how Canadian carriers get away with abusing their customers the way they do.

post #156 of 176
Originally Posted by v5v View Post
I don't remember the details. Her carrier had some deal on a combination of minutes, data and add-ons that appealed to her, but it wasn't available for the iPhone. I don't know why.


I know why; because the carriers are idiots and restrict iPhones. Ugh… That really shouldn't be allowed.


…Canadian carriers…

 

I'm so sorry.

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply
post #157 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I know why; because the carriers are idiots and restrict iPhones. Ugh… That really shouldn't be allowed.

 

I don't know if I'd call it "restricting" iPhones, more like "profiteering" on iPhones. When demand exceeds supply they can get away with gouging.

post #158 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Companies go out of business when they run out of money... not because of their ranking on a market share chart.
But since you like charts... here is the preliminary forecast of the Top 5 OEMs for 2012:
Smartphones
28% Samsung
20% Apple
5% Nokia
5% HTC
5% RIM
ALL Phones
29% Samsung
24% Nokia
10% Apple
6% ZTE
4% LG
Apple is 2nd place in global smartphone sales... and 3rd place in ALL phones sold in the world... 20% and 10% respectively. That's actually not bad considering they only make one new phone a year... and it's a rather expensive phone.
Smartphone Platforms
75% Android
14% iOS
Those particular numbers might look scary... but hold on.
Apple made $8.2 billion in profit last quarter. That's an incredible number whether they are in 1st place or last place. That's why I don't think market share ranking is a big deal.
Apple may be a distant 2nd on that chart... but they are not having a yard sale to liquidate their assets.
Yes... I think RIM is in trouble. They are having trouble moving units and they are laying off people at an alarming rate.
Apple isn't. They are selling iPhones as fast as they can make them. They are hiring more employees. They are building a new headquarters to house them all. Apple is the complete opposite of RIM.
The developer situation is interesting. Android has outsold iOS for quite some time... but there haven't been too many Android-exclusive apps that I'm aware of. We're at the point now where most of the "top 100" apps are on both platforms... but there are still quite a few iOS-exclusive apps.
Android handsets are supposedly selling a million per day. That's a lot of units. But I can't recall any developer who dropped iOS in favor of Android. I think the iOS ecosystem is still a massive draw for developers.
This article sheds some light on it: http://www.knowyourmobile.com/features/1639307/android_vs_ios_a_developers_perspective_on_the_big_two.html
Drawback to developing for Android include: fewer paying customers, piracy, less-mature APIs, device inconsistency, and Android version adoption.
This is just one developer's experience... but clearly something is going on. With so many Android devices out in the world... you'd think developers would be fawning all over Android.
So... Android outsells iOS... but developers prefer iOS anyway. And Android phones outsells iPhones... but Apple still makes a healthy amount of money.
Maybe that's just how it will be.

you are contradicting yourself with RIM. It's market share in the top EU countries is 15%. And yet people see it as doomed. My suspicion is that - on this American dominated site - were Apples share in the US equal to its world share there would be more panic.

I am tired of hearing about profit, too. I made the point that profit follows marketshare for platforms. And Apples profit share is decreasing.

There will be a cheap phone. Apple is not going to compete forever with one high end phone released every year.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #159 of 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Bingo.

And given the long tail, the cross-platform apps are the apps most people use. There are plenty for both platforms, and neither platform is going away.

I don't understand the fervor in this forum to eliminate consumer choice.  There's no harm to anyone if someone else prefers a different OS.

I like chocolate cake, someone else likes cheesecake. How many posts can there be about something so trivial?

Interesting straw man. The debate is between people who think that Androids acceleration in market share is nothing to worry about, and those who think it is something to worry about. Absolutely nobody is arguing that Android is going to 0%.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #160 of 176

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 10:02am
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