But your premise could only be correct if the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android. Think about that for a minute before replying.
It's difficult to know what you mean by "your premise", but there's nothing in what I wrote that depends on "the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android." If Android can't retain customers because people don't really like it and the phones don't really work that well, it doesn't matter what heights their market share reach before it collapses.
You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.
I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.
I read the thread, and I think the numbers speak for themselves.
Wealthiest corporation on the planet.
Breaks its own sales and profit records every single quarter.
"Needed."
And developers refuse to build stuff for Android because of the rampant piracy and lack of money spent there.
Pretty sure Apple's gonna do just fine without a $100 off-contract phone, given that those people wouldn't be buying apps in the first place.
Pretty close. People constantly talk about the Bill of Materials and then say things like, "Well there's also R&D", but nobody calculates the total figures. So I did, using the best available information:
You're citing a subset of network usage stats from a single company as the only reliable source in the world while all else is suspect? That's rich.
Here's a summary of sources from my links:
Strategy Analytics
ABI Research
Informa
IDC
Jefferies
UBS Investment Research
Analysis International
Pew Research
What specific aspects of their methodologies do you take exception with, and how did they respond when you wrote them to explain their failures?
And in the case of IDC, UBS, and possibly Jefferies, would you kindly explain why you take exception with them here, but accept any similar stats they offer when they favor your preferred brand?
So, people are buying Android tablets, they just never take them anywhere or actually, you know, use them? Right, that must be it.
So, you can trot out all the names you want, unless they are conflating shipped with owned, the numbers are fiction.
But, the more important point is that Android is a house of cards, a confusing OS on cheap hardware, and people just don't like it that much. They also don't invest in the ecosystem, so there's really no barrier at all to abandoning it. And that's exactly what they do.
Because lots of people are still buying their first smartphone. Android's troubles begin when all those users have been churned through. Apple's sales keep growing too, so it's not like people have stopped buying iPhones. The point is that, from what I've seen, Android is simply unable to retain users, and, "its market share keeps growing," doesn't address that issue.
I think you give the average consumer too much credit. Most Android users that I know, and I seem to be surrounded by them, have no idea about the underlying OS that powers their phones. Sure, they hear about Android, but what they generally see when using their phones are Samsung TouchWiz, HTC Sense, Motorola MotoBlur, etc. The interface overlays are what average consumers associate with their phones. So when they get frustrated by an HTC phone with Sense they use their upgrade on a Samsung phone with TouchWiz. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but most people I know don't switch from Android to Apple. Instead, they switch to a different Android phone running a different interface overlay. I'm the only person that I personally know to have made the switch from Android to Apple.
I think you give the average consumer too much credit. Most Android users that I know, and I seem to be surrounded by them, have no idea about the underlying OS that powers their phones. Sure, they hear about Android, but what they generally see when using their phones are Samsung TouchWiz, HTC Sense, Motorola MotoBlur, etc. The interface overlays are what average consumers associate with their phones. So when they get frustrated by an HTC phone with Sense they use their upgrade on a Samsung phone with TouchWiz. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but most people I know don't switch from Android to Apple. Instead, they switch to a different Android phone running a different interface overlay. I'm the only person that I personally know to have made the switch from Android to Apple.
I think you have to be talking about geeks. No one, and I mean no one, I know, other than geeks, who has or has had an Android phone has any idea what TouchWiz, MotoBlur or Sense are. They don't even know that there are differences between Android phones. Some of them didn't even understand the difference between Android and iOS (or know what they were) when they first got their phone.
They know they have Android, they can probably tell you who made their phone (although, they may answer with the carrier name, and these are intelligent people, mostly, they just have other things on their minds), but, if any of them told me they had a Samsung phone and I asked them how they liked TouchWiz, they would not have the slightest idea what I was talking about. Average users have no clue about these different UI variations. I have never known anyone but a geek switch from one Android brand to another, and the smart ones switch to iPhone, it's sort of like an IQ and rationality test.
There's not going to be any licensing.
Yes, a lot are switching from Android to Apple, in significant and increasing numbers. Besides a few tech bloggers who think it's worth page hits to write about, very, very, few people ever switch from Apple to Android. So few that the number is negligible.
I made it pretty evidently clear that I'm basing these "claims" on my personal observations, among a group of what I believe are fairly typical consumers of my acquaintance, and among whom I've made no effort to influence their decisions. (I have seen a handful of studies that support these observations, but I don't have links to any of them, so I'm not citing them here.) The most interesting part of the process is that there are absolutely no ecosystem ties that make the process of switching "painful" for these people. This I believe is a key point, that people are not at all invested in an Android ecosystem. This is completely different than, say, Windows, where the investment in software, or absence of particular software, made it difficult or painful for people to switch. That isn't the case with Android at all. If anything, many of these people, even while using Android phones, had more of an investment with Apple's ecosystem, through iTunes, than they ever developed with Android. Their Android investment amounted to at most, a few free apps, perhaps a gmail account (which doesn't tie them anywhere) and that's pretty much it.
The points are that,
* Android users establish no ties to Android
* They generally find using Android and the hardware it runs on a frustrating experience, for various reasons
* They switch to Apple because they just want their phones to work without fuss and confusion
I think you have to be talking about geeks. No one, and I mean no one, I know, other than geeks, who has or has had an Android phone has any idea what TouchWiz, MotoBlur or Sense are. They don't even know that there are differences between Android phones. Some of them didn't even understand the difference between Android and iOS (or know what they were) when they first got their phone.
They know they have Android, they can probably tell you who made their phone (although, they may answer with the carrier name, and these are intelligent people, mostly, they just have other things on their minds), but, if any of them told me they had a Samsung phone and I asked them how they liked TouchWiz, they would not have the slightest idea what I was talking about. Average users have no clue about these different UI variations. I have never known anyone but a geek switch from one Android brand to another, and the smart ones switch to iPhone, it's sort of like an IQ and rationality test.
I'm not implying that they know the name of the overlay, e.g. Sense, TouchWiz, etc. On the contrary, they have no idea that they have anything other than a "Droid" phone. But, anecdotally, I've witnessed several people bounce from one Android manufacturer to another because they didn't like how their phone functioned. They never blamed it on Android, but on their particular phone manufacturer. None of these people are geeks. The geeks I know with Android either root their phone or prefer a Nexus devise with stock Android. I've had one employee switch from an HTC Thunderbolt to an iPhone 5, but she isn't happy with the reduced screen size and is contemplating a switch back to Android with a Galaxy Note II. For some people, it truly is all about screen size. My elderly parents each have an Android phone because the larger screen sizes are easier on their eyes. I'm not going to denigrate their IQ or rationality as suggested for a consumer device choice. I enjoy my Apple products, but I don't expect the world to conform to my viewpoint.
I'm not implying that they know the name of the overlay, e.g. Sense, TouchWiz, etc. On the contrary, they have no idea that they have anything other than a "Droid" phone. But, anecdotally, I've witnessed several people bounce from one Android manufacturer to another because they didn't like how their phone functioned. They never blamed it on Android, but on their particular phone manufacturer. None of these people are geeks. The geeks I know with Android either root their phone or prefer a Nexus devise with stock Android. I've had one employee switch from an HTC Thunderbolt to an iPhone 5, but she isn't happy with the reduced screen size and is contemplating a switch back to Android with a Galaxy Note II. For some people, it truly is all about screen size. My elderly parents each have an Android phone because the larger screen sizes are easier on their eyes. I'm not going to denigrate their IQ or rationality as suggested for a consumer device choice. I enjoy my Apple products, but I don't expect the world to conform to my viewpoint.
The comment about IQ or rationality was meant to apply only to geeks, who ought to be able to objectively evaluate the quality of the respective OS's and hardware.
You sample is apparently even more naive than mine, not knowing anything at all about the phones they bought, but it does confirm my observation that the people who end up with Android are typically those who know less about what they are getting into.
I made it pretty evidently clear that I'm basing these "claims" on my personal observations, among a group of what I believe are fairly typical consumers of my acquaintance, and among whom I've made no effort to influence their decisions. (I have seen a handful of studies that support these observations, but I don't have links to any of them, so I'm not citing them here.) The most interesting part of the process is that there are absolutely no ecosystem ties that make the process of switching "painful" for these people. This I believe is a key point, that people are not at all invested in an Android ecosystem. This is completely different than, say, Windows, where the investment in software, or absence of particular software, made it difficult or painful for people to switch. That isn't the case with Android at all. If anything, many of these people, even while using Android phones, had more of an investment with Apple's ecosystem, through iTunes, than they ever developed with Android. Their Android investment amounted to at most, a few free apps, perhaps a gmail account (which doesn't tie them anywhere) and that's pretty much it.
The points are that,
* Android users establish no ties to Android
* They generally find using Android and the hardware it runs on a frustrating experience, for various reasons
* They switch to Apple because they just want their phones to work without fuss and confusion
So basically, your claims on this matter are based on your own personal experience and what you see around you rather than actual documented evidence? If someone came into this thread and posted an opposite opinion purely based on what they see their acquaintances doing, I'm pretty sure you'd be crying "Where's your evidence?". Pretty typical of yourself and these forums really. Pro-Apple - "whatever we say is evidence". Neutral or anti-Apple - "anecdotal evidence is not enough". Double standards at its finest.
You sample is apparently even more naive than mine, not knowing anything at all about the phones they bought, but it does confirm my observation that the people who end up with Android are typically those who know less about what they are getting into.
I can't say whether that's true of the larger population, but some people I know are doing their homework and choosing Samsung anyway. To use my daughter as an example, she understands most of the differences, but they are things that don't matter to her. She has no interest in Airplay, doesn't see a need for iCloud, and after smashing the screen of an iPod Touch TWICE is not moved by claims that Apple hardware is better quality.
Things that DID matter to her were the larger screen on the Samsung, the fact that she could get it for a fraction of the cost of an iPhone (she's young and poor), and that the plan she wanted is not available for the iPhone.
So basically, your claims on this matter are based on your own personal experience and what you see around you rather than actual documented evidence? If someone came into this thread and posted an opposite opinion purely based on what they see their acquaintances doing, I'm pretty sure you'd be crying "Where's your evidence?". Pretty typical of yourself and these forums really. Pro-Apple - "whatever we say is evidence". Neutral or anti-Apple - "anecdotal evidence is not enough". Double standards at its finest.
You don't have to accept it. I made it abundantly clear what I was basing it on and I did not in any way pretend that I was basing it on some sort of objective third party study.
You don't even have to believe it. Whether you or I believe it or not won't change what's happening. However, I'm as convinced of this as a real problem for Android as I was a couple of years ago that Flash had 2-5 years of life in it. I look around, I see what's happening, I trust my instincts. If you choose to believe otherwise, you're free to. I think the problem for Android is very real. Frankly, I'm just fine with you and everyone else not believing it, because, then, nothing will be done about it, which I'm also totally fine with.
Yep, the major apps are on both platforms. (The only one I'm missing on Android is the iOS Optimum online app that lets me watch TV on my iPad.)
One major difference is that Android has lots of interesting control apps and widgets. Stock iOS doesn't allow such things.
The biggest problem with any market is getting people to find your app. In the Apple App Store, half of US app revenue goes to just 25 developers.
At the same time, I've read of a few developers dropping Android because of not getting enough returns there, either.
...and that the plan she wanted is not available for the iPhone.
What plan was that?
I don't remember the details. Her carrier had some deal on a combination of minutes, data and add-ons that appealed to her, but it wasn't available for the iPhone. I don't know why. I have long since given up trying to understand how Canadian carriers get away with abusing their customers the way they do.
I know why; because the carriers are idiots and restrict iPhones. Ugh… That really shouldn't be allowed.
I'm so sorry.
I know why; because the carriers are idiots and restrict iPhones. Ugh… That really shouldn't be allowed.
I don't know if I'd call it "restricting" iPhones, more like "profiteering" on iPhones. When demand exceeds supply they can get away with gouging.
