Android growth prior to iPhone 5 launch further established market dominance - Page 2

Interesting that most of the comments related to the referenced article basically suggest that Android sucks.

"If android and iOS cellular usages are about the same while android phones are reported to have 2x ios market shares, it shows android users are 50% less likely to surf the web using cellular network than iOS users. What gives?"

"Well, that’s basically Gruber’s theory: that many Android smartphones aren’t being used as smartphones."

"If you take in to account that Android is outselling iOS and developers depend more on ads to generate revenue, clearly more Android users use their phone as feature phones."

"iPhone users are happy to use their phone’s web browser even when they’re at home, but Android users prefer using a computer over their phone unless they’re on the go and don’t have another data connection."

"I think many Android users simply don’t turn on the WiFi as much and iOS handles the transition between WiFi and cellular much more smoothly."

"wifi is much less power efficient on Android than on iOS, so Android users tend to leave it turned off, even when they’re within range of wifi networks. "

"people unable to use the wifi of their workplace because of their buggy android device, while cursing the IT department for the “incompatible” wifi."

 

That link may be misleading if one doesn't read it thoroughly. But when you do, a plausible explanation (and a better one that Android users being too dumb to use Wifi) emerges.

 

The Wifi traffic includes tablets. Particularly in the US, the iPad margin over Android tablets more than makes up for the Android margin over iPhones. Would be interesting to see the trends outside the US - something that Akamai promises for the future.

Next headlines:

 

Android OS takes a 99% market share of smartphones.

 

Apple still dominates mobile web browsing. Share now 3:1.

 

Apple increases smartphone profit share to 83%.

 

Apple sells 100 million iPhone 6 in the holiday quarter.

 

Samsung again leaves Apple in the dust with combined sales of 100.1 million.

But it was very close.

 

In every market there is a minimum marketshare you need to survive.

If the market has a lot of players this minimum is low. The less players there are the higher the minimum is.

 

As in the PC business in the smartphone market the number of players is not determined by the companies selling phones but by the number of OS platforms in use.

And I'm really confident Apple is now big enough to survive even the death of all other players besides IOS and Android.

Edited by smalM - 12/18/12 at 1:39am

 

The scenario you paint is too simplistic.  What about tablets and laptop computers?  The reason Android is succeeding at all is because cell phone companies push Android devices out of fear of Apple taking over the market.  The cell phone companies are in desperate need of competition to the iPhone to prevent Apple from controlling their market.  That motivation does not exist with tablets and is why the iPad continues dominating the market.  The iPad mini and Kindle devices are going to squeeze Android devices to nothing.

When it comes to tablets, the phone companies who drive Android sales actually become a hinderance.  Who wants to buy a tablet from ATT or Verizon? uhggg.  Android sellers have no established retail channels and businesses aren't pushing Android devices (businesses actually prefer the iPad for security reasons and better software).  

 

Android will continue its market dominance in phones for people that only want a phone.  However, the mobile war is a platform war that involves choosing software to run on devices that people actually use.  The vast majority of mobile users that actually buy software are Apple users who are buying up iPhones, iPads, and MBAs.  They are creating an ecosystem that will be just as "sticky" as the Microsoft platform, if not more.  

 

Android will be left with a whole lot of worthless phone sales.  When the phones stop advancing, we may actually see an uptick in iPhone market share as a result of people seeking device compatibility with their laptops and tablets.    

Statistics.... 

 

Okay so these are all pretty much based on sales figures, right? not actual active subscribers, right? 

 

As with the Mac vs PC "war" over the years - I posit that Apple products remain in productive use far longer than products from most other (perhaps all) vendors. 

 

In fact my original iPhone 2G has just become my niece's first cell phone. How many 4 year old Android phones are still being used at all - much less as active cell phones? 

 

Market share is not the cumulative total of all devices ever sold. It is the cumulative total off all device sold minus the number that have been permanently decommissioned (destroyed, broken, dropped off the back of a boat in the Chesapeake Bay). 

 

And didn't China only just get the iPhone 5 a couple weeks ago - not sure if the hundreds of millions of potential iPhone customers in China have been accounted for yet. 

 

So just making up numbers here - if Apple has sold 15% of 100,000,000 phones world wide compared to 85% of the same 100,000,000 phones being Android - but 90% of the Apple devices are still in use while only 50% of the Android devices are still in use, that would mean that rather than 15% Apple would still have about 25% of the active market. 

 

As for growth when expressed in percentage is not nearly so useful - if I gave you 2 cents today and then gave you 100% more tomorrow that would only be 4 cents - whereas if I gave you 1 million dollars today and then just 0.1% of that tomorrow that would be $1,000. which would you rather have? 100% more than 2 cents or 0.1% of a million? 

 

As for me - there is at the very least one iPhone 5 in my future (when 4S contract is up) and potentially 3 others in my immediate family around the same time - with one 4S and a couple 4s likely to be passed down to my son and my other nieces. 

Why is the anal-syst releasing this gas now?   He might be trying to tip the scale toward the selling of apple stock - especially for those debating on selling it before the end of the year to realize tax benefits.  

 

He wants to create downward momentum for apple stock so when apple releases their next quarterly report and smashes it - he and his comrades can bank in the spike that ensues.  

Wow....Apple is a scrappy underdog? We all get what you are saying, but a hundred years from now someone looking back at this will be scratching their heads asking how someone could possibly describe the second largest company in the world (by market cap) as the "scrappy underdog".  

 

It's either because there is no money on Android for developers, or this below, or both.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20754182

Enterprise won't touch Android due to the security risks and easily hacked infrastructure. That's where the big money is and businesses are lining up for iOS.

 

That's why everyone compares it to Windows.

You illustrate my early point perfectly.  You buy Apple devices because you want the device, which is why you pass it down (because other people want your used device).  The only reason Android phones are successful is because the phone companies want to sell them, not because anyone wants to buy them.  The Android phones are not going to be sold cheaper because they are already being sold at a loss to get/keep cell phone subscribers.  

 

Apple can have whatever percentage of the market it wants based off its pricing of its iPhone.  If it wants more sales, it can lower the price.  That isn't going to change anytime soon and it scares the hell out of cell phone providers. (which is why they give away Android devices).  Apple will continue to price the iPhone to maximize profits and that is exactly what they should be doing. 

Aren't Android devices outselling everything else like 47 to 1? (okay, 3 to 1 against everything else & 5 to 1 against Apple)

How is it "poised" to take over?

All the stories say it is simply crushing everything else yet it still hasn't taken over the entire market?

 

-> Google's Eric Schmidt says Android 'clearly' winning against Apple in phones

"while the latest data from Gartner gives Android a 72 percent of the smartphone market,"

Edited by Chris_CA - 12/17/12 at 6:19pm

 

Precisely.. So why does Appleinsider give this douche the time of day.

Your post is spot on for the most part except . . .

 

Some people truly want andriod devices because they have feature advantages over the iphone - i.e. bigger screen etc.  Of course taken as a whole the andriod experience is sub-par for the typical consumer - but the consumer knows or at least thinks he knows what he wants.  And yes sometimes the sales rep is there to help the buyer convince himself that he wants an andriod device.

This point cannot be overstated.  There is a gradual shift going on in the PC world and the shift isn't to Android...its to Mac.  I've seen the barriers to using at Mac at my work come crumbling down in just the last year.  Just the thought of my IT department tolerating Macs in the workplace even a year ago was like thinking in 1985 that the Berlin wall would come down.  Yet here I am using a Mac at work.

 

I went to a business meeting last week with 5 guys from 4 different companies and all of us were using a Mac Book Air and an iPhone.  Yes MBA cost a little more than a POS dell or HP, but laptops last a lot longer these days and a MBA is more and more often the same or better value as a PC.  The same thing will happen with Android devices in 2-5 years from now.  The iPhone will drop in price a few hundred dollars and people will pay the difference for the better product.  

 

People often compare Apple to BMW's etc.  However, there is a big difference between a $50,000 car purchase and $500 phone purchase.  90% of Americans can opt to overspend $300 to buy an iPhone without ruining their finances.  The same is not true for an expensive car purchase and even less so for an expensive house.  I predict Apple will be able to continue charging a fair price for a premium product.

 

Tell me why I would want the best touchscreen OS on completely worthless hardware. Insert 200,000 analogies here.

But... but... Android... 75% market share....

iPhone... losing... badly...

Apple... cannot... win....

AHHHHHHH

Underdog!!!

---

Seriously though... Apple will never have the bigger number on the market share chart.

But I'm having trouble seeing the inherent problem with that.

 

Probably is connected to the fact that lots of people are commenting on this article. 

 

Apple Insider is just taking the bait like every other outlet. I find it most helpful to know who is really behind this and why they are manipulating public perception the way they are?  I wonder about Charles Wolf's underlying interests as an analyst of Needham & Company - an independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies.

 

Perhaps we should contact Charles directly to be sure no funny business is going on.  I'm only half being sarcastic. 

 

Charles Wolf
Senior Analyst, Digital Lifestyle

Telephone: (212) 705-0447
Email: cwolf@needhamco.com

 

honestly i did not photoshop his finger - that is the way it came off their site.

No, the decision to choose an Android has nothing to do with a sales rep.  It has everything to do with pricing and advertising.  The Android phones are FREE and heavily marketed.  The reason for this has nothing to do with Google/Samsung charging less for their Android phones (although that does help with giving them away).  The main reason for pushing Android phones is that the iPhone is capable of controlling the markets.  The irony is that cell phone companies actually make more money from Apple devices because they can take market share from their competitors.  While that makes the device highly desirable, it also scares cell phone companies to death.  They know eventually all the cell phone companies will be selling the iPhone and Apple could dictate pricing and extract ALL THE VALUE out of the telcom industry.  The power of the iPhone truly caught the telcom industry off guard.  Verizon created the Android market and continues to push the Android market as a counterbalance to Apple's market power.  

 

Yes of course there are a few people that like Android devices and buy them because they want them.  However, that number is very tiny in the grand scheme of things.  Nobody is putting their company on the line for Samsung Gallaxy IIIS like Sprint did to get an iPhone contract.  Nobody is trying to get rid of a multi-billion dollar subsidiary like T-mobile USA because they picked the wrong data transmission frequency that turned out to be incompatible with the iPhone.

 

The only major telcom in the World (that I'm aware of) that is refusing to play ball with Apple is China Mobile.  China is a different place.  I know enough about China to know not to predict the outcome of any business battle going on there.

 

I don't buy that.

I agree. I figure that Android is the "default phone". It's a no-brainer sale; you want this regular phone that might have a calendar or address book and ring tones, or do you want a smart phone? So the consumer of course wants a Smart Phone, and you've got Android and the other two phones, and then you've got the pricey iPhone. Now unless they got the Samsung Galaxy (the "Microsoft Windows" knockoff of the iPhone -- let's not kid ourselves), chances are, your experience may not be so awesome -- but if this is the ONLY smart phone you know, you might be happy. After people have graduated to smart phones, they'll be Apple customers -- because those Android phones are going to be less upgradeable, and have more issues over time. Just wait for the "buy the virus cleaner" and "oh, you got the wrong version of the software" or the old favorite; "we'll just wipe the drive and reinstall -- it will be ready in no time." The momentary horse race is going to show a "trend" if you only sample a few months, or if you don't pay attention that "Smart Phones" in general are wiping out other phones. Samsung and Google got a great boost from copying Apple, but from here on out they'll be doing their own research. It's not going to be a slam dunk for anyone, really. The consumer will be doing fine. My main concern is if Samsung continues to be successful cannibalizing innovators in electronics. It's really sick seeing them rewarded. However, we can look forward to them as a geriatric company like Microsoft that one day thinks it got rich and powerful by innovation (believing their own spin), and they start trying to make their own things from scratch. THAT will be when we see internal competition and a lot of fiefdom's of egos infighting. And meanwhile, the "Android based phone" companies will struggle to differentiate themselves in various flavors of "just as good as iPhone", and then you'll get more headaches for developers.

I hope you're right

Just curious, was this the quarter prior to the iPhone 5 release?  I guess until Apple makes phones that you can use to bump-transfer dirty videos to your spouse, Android is the runaway winner.  I guess Google TV will be on everyone's TV as well in a year or so (again), and all developers will develop mainly for Android first (again).  Of course pigs will then fly, and the Browns will win the Superbowl.  Marketshare Marketshare Marketshare, these hacks are broken records.  You would think they would have learned by now.

 

As it turns out, the very first article comment / correction by the author himself, essentially negates his entire theory:

 

"One thing I forgot to mention. Guy Podjarny told me that "mobile browsers" include tablets. So part of the disparity could the success of the iPad versus Android tablets. The assumption would be that iPads are more likely to both be on Wi-Fi and be used for more browsing."

 

 

You're right.

 

Another oft-quoted source is Chitika's ad network report, currently showing iOS with 65% and Android with 35% (of ad impressions... why would anyone brag they see more ads?  Never mind).

 

And it turns out that the discrepancy is exactly what you, the article author and others have already suggested:

 

"While third-party and our own observations have pegged smartphone Web traffic share as a near-tie, Apple has a decided advantage in the tablet market, where its iPad is unquestionably the hottest seller in the sector.  This advantage is the largest contributing factor to Apple’s lead over Android."

 

Even when comparing the iPad to just the iPhone, the iPad can make the iPhone's web usage look poor.

 

"...the proportion of iPad and iPhone usage can vary dramatically. The Hollywood Reporter gets 41% of its monthly US iOS traffic from iPad devices, Time is even more iPad-heavy with 70% of its US mobile web users preferring the iPad experience and Dailymotion sees an incredible 78% of its iOS mobile Web users accessing the site from iPads."

 

TL;DR - iOS and Android smartphones have the same amount of web traffic.   Adding in the iPad  skews the results for BOTH types of smartphones, probably due to the tablet predominately using WiFi, whereas smartphones mostly use cellular comms.  

Edited by KDarling - 12/17/12 at 7:11pm

I'm really noticing the manipulation of Public Perception. Apple has been painted as a "lawsuit happy company" -- you know, after their main developer Microsoft rode off with all their innovations in OS and made Windows, and then they had that google board member working on the android at the same time while their main manufacturer (Samsung), redesigns their cell phones around this really cool device they've got getting fabbed on their factory floor. The average person thinks Apple was fighting over "rounded corners and grids of icons" and didn't bother to see the thousands of little touches that nobody nailed down but all make up what everyone thinks of with a smart phone. And now Forbes and a few others helped paint Apple as the Chinese sweat shop company (ignoring that they've been pushing for years for better standards and wages and the hundreds of other companies who manufacture in China), while they herald Samsung (a company made from Chinese sweat shops) as the good guy -- go figure. There is more effort in media spin than in innovation these days, but despite that, Apple is doing fine -- and fortunately (or sadly) the average consumer wouldn't care if the phone was made from baby seals... the articles on Slashdot or from Tech Pundits only reverberate as far as the next geek. Every large industry is constantly passing around lawsuits -- but you wouldn't know that if you just read the trade papers. It's really curious how this happened. It's gratifying that it hasn't influenced the market all that much -- it just allows people to feel smug about their "enlightened purchase" of the sweat shop produced Android phone with toxic parts and making profits for IP thieves. All the information flowing through this device will be data mined and sold around the world -- but hey, it was $100 bucks cheaper!

 

There have been numerous studies done by several different companies tracking different metrics from actual internet usage to advertising impressions and even to shopping on Black Friday. They all come up with similar numbers that show 2:1 for iPhones over Android phones and almost 9:1 for iPads over Android tablets.

The fact that the study you linked can't even break out iPads from iPhones shows how reliable their analytics software is. Modern analytics software can easily identify the device, OS version and even manufacturer. I use the basic version of Google Analytics on my website and even it can separate iPhones from iPads or tell me how many Samsung Galaxy or LG Optimus visitors I've had to my site.

 

I'm surprised you didn't try and pull the "Android users can change their user agent so they don't show up as mobile" crap that so many Android users still try to peddle as an excuse for the traffic disparity between iOS and Android.

 

 

Hardly shifting. The people that count (developers and advertisers) use these same numbers to decide where they should spend their money. That's why iOS also has a 2:1 advantage over Android in terms of developer support. Nobody wants to waste time coding for a device that the user never even uses as it's intended. It's also why App quality is superior on iOS and why iOS usually gets the first version of something new.

 

And where did you get that "history of claims" from? I don't recall anyone making those claims. Or are you going to take the opinions of a few fanboys with extreme views and try to apply them to the rest of us?

 

I will quote you when I interview for Charles Wolf's job ;-)

If the "average" person has been thus manipulated, why do so many surveys show that close to half or over half of the people planning to buy a smartphone are contemplating the iPhone? Please give the "average" person more credit.

 

I do agree there has been more attention focused on Apple (particularly the New York Times series). But I don't recall seeing any articles calling Samsung "the good guy" (although there are some lauding their success). Can you show me a few examples?

Agreed. Rather like Lincoln has ended up making "airport" cars and GM, Ford and Chrysler (for a time) were basically making cars for the rental car companies.

 

My daughter is a an MD and when I go to her parties where all her friends are MD's, they all have iPhones and iPads and Macs.

 

I've said it here before, ~70% of the American economy is driven by the consumer. But 50% of the economy is driven by the top 10% of Americans. The top 10% is Apple's target. It just so happens some of those top 10% also run the Fortune 500 companies where 90%+ have incorporated or are testing iPhones and iPads!

 

On a side note, China is 1.3 billion people, but half their population is still in poverty, (perhaps, not for long!)

 

I never see these two important facts in any articles about anything. Especially the first one.

Told y'all so.

I say Apple should allow HTC to license iOS and bring some additional device choices to the market.

Google is winning the "race," all right - the Race To The Bottom. no doubt 75% of the world's phones - they will all be "smartphones" soon - could wind up some flavor - many forked - of Android. these will be mostly the cheap "free + contract" phones - which is simply all that 2/3 of the world can afford. so only 1/12 of the world will actually prefer Android - 8.5%. if Apple holds just 20% of that future global market - a lot more than that - at premium prices it will be the world's biggest and most profitable company. that isn't exactly "losing."

 

all the others - RIM, MS, and ? - will be lucky to not get totally squeezed out and hang on to the other 5% combined. very good chance RIM won't survive (someone else will buy its carcass/OS), and Windows Phone becomes MS' permanent "hobby."

 

i'm amazed anyone pays these "analysts" to come up with such stupid drivel.

So instead of Apple selling a $650 phone and making roughly $300 in pure profit... they should only make $50 in iOS license fees?

That doesn't sound like a good idea...

deleted

Edited by MacRulez - 3/15/13 at 9:53am

 

Good.  I hope you get the job.  Right now, the idea that any one OS will "take over the market" is a bit simplistic.

 

 

Using Apple's financial reports to figure out percentages, it works out to be about $200 in pure profit on a $650 phone.  Which is still a lot.  And it really goes up if the user gets a model with more storage at Apple's massive Flash markup.

 

Anyway, as far as license fees, Apple already revealed in a trial, that at one time they were thinking of charging $30 for a phone using much of their technology (but not including iOS)...

 

I wouldnt do that. But how about apple making an iOS phone for someone else? For example Apple could make yahoo brand phone and tablet that runs on ios. Yahoo could strike a deal on the ecosystem and used apple apps stores with a share of the profits for yahoo phones.

Just saying, would be a way to make cheaper ios devices, but not with the apple brand. While at it they could try to get the Nook and Kobo to run on iOs. Why not try to make a deal with Amazon, those guys have to adapt android so they lag the google version. Why not have apple make whatever hardware they want and have it run ios. Amazon could still have its own store on those devices.
Edited by herbapou - 12/17/12 at 8:14pm

Hey AppleInsider, can you please post an article everytime a fucking analyst spouts some  useless horse-shit prediction?

 

Oh wait, nevermind, you're already on top of that.

good point on the China poverty thing.  Android will undoubtedly succeed there because it is a no profit product.  With 1.3 billion people there are also quite a few rich people.  And guess what....they all want iPhones.

LOL....glad to see we have some funny guys on this site.