Originally Posted by Hunabku
The problem with your argument starts with the fact that by every other important metric (revenue, developer support, stickiness, internet usage) andriod is far behind iOS. Apple is also taking control of their processor destiny and if the current trend tells us anything they'll continue to widen the gap between the competition. Also Andriodians are betting on Apple standing still with innovation in ios and services. Sorry to burst your bubble - Apple will innovate vigorously - it's in their DNA. Finally look at how wonderfully Apple is established with its stores expanding around the globe - they are in so many markets and will continue to grow by opening into new ones.
Having the bottom position of the market - even if it is the majority - is not a position of power. Hi-end means apple, so even if ios devices end up with the kind of market that apple laptops are in, it still will be good enough to lead the industry and garner the take-it-to-the-bank support of developers and loyal users.
Several incorrect assumptions above. Let me go through them.
Revenue: I do not see how this is really relevant to our argument as I am taking an end-user perspective here. Suffice to say Google and the manufacturers aren't going bankrupt in the foreseeable future due to market potential.
Developer Support: Android is gaining a lot of developer support for the things that we really want to do. All flagship apps know they have to be cross-platform, and they are. There are a lot of Android apps out there now, quantity and quality-wise they are increasing. Tablets is slightly different as I have mentioned but in terms of smartphones, 2013 is a hot time.
Stickiness: There are a lot of people who switch to Android or who have got Androids in the past few months, and I tell you, it is hard to go back to iOS.
Internet Usage: Android cannot be said to be far behind iOS. Web browsing, perhaps, but that's also because, as I've pointed out, due to the high level of Android apps and a high level of unoptimised websites Android data usage is app-oriented.
Processor "Destiny": Apple has one of the best if not the best chip in terms of the A6. However, the others are not sitting still. Yes, Apple can do a lot of specific and quality tweaks but Nvidia's Tegra 3, Qualcomm's Snapdragon and so on are also all ARM-based and there's a lot of exciting stuff going on there. Alongside with developers really investing a lot of time optimising Android like Project Butter, kernels and so on which will filter to the end-user. So chip-wise I am not really sure if there are any superb advantages for Apple by the end of 2013. For example, a Tegra 3 Nexus 7 running at 1.3ghz can play Shadowgun: Deadzone at High quality (similar to iPhone 5) at a higher 720p resolution. Tegra 3 HTC's, when they get Android 4.2, will also give iPhone 5 a good run for their money. Nexus 10 has some issues so it can't go up against iPad 3/4 hardcore yet, but in smartphones, processors by Apple are very refined but not incredibly unreachable by competitors in real-world use. Remember that competitors will be more aggressive with clock speeds and cores, so while this impacts battery life, some users will appreciate more power. Some battery life effects can be negated eg. with Juice Defender where you can get basically 0.5% battery drop per 1 hour in standby mode. And battery life is improving across the board.
Innovation: And so this is the saddest thing, for me. If you look at what's happened in 2012, with some amazing screens like the One X, S3, Note 2, DNA/Butterfly, beautiful 720p and 1080p resolution, high level of improvements and sophistication with Android 4.0, 4.1 and 4.2, in the 4" to 7" space I would argue that Android has innovated harder, faster and better than Apple. For the iPhone 5, what did we get? Slight increase in vertical display. Same OS, more or less. Same Siri which works or not for you. Maps gone backwards. Amazing form factor but in terms of size more of a "compact phone" rather than a flagship smartphone. There are also numerous Android developments which are not in iOS 2012, which I can go into at a later stage. So in terms of "Innovation" at the core of Apple's "DNA", without Steve Jobs, I would say they might indeed be outpaced by Android over the next few years.
Global Growth, High-End-Market: Everything you mention about Apple must by definition apply to Android as well. The smartphone global market is phenomenal. Apple and Android obviously target this market. There are high-end Apple phones, and there are some significant high-end Android phones as well. Droid DNA and Note 2 are incredibly high-end. There is no longer a credible argument that Android is just about cheap, crappy phones.
Android is not at the "bottom of the market". Apple is not "at the top of the market". These do not apply in 2013 due to all the points I have laid out in this thread.
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
When the history is written, it will be Google's
fall from it's moral high-chair into the depths of corporate thievery
that will be the real culprit in terms of nudging out any legally and morally superior, mobile OS alternatives.
I'm curious as to why Apple didn't sue Google directly and appeared to have cut off their nose to spite their face by releasing iOS Maps.
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer
At the rate upon which tablets are expanding and Apple is actually growing its share, this 24 month claim is a pipe dream.
Incorrect, Apple's tablet share has diminished. Yet again forumers here unable to accept facts.
Even if you consider IDC's numbers to be too favourable of Android, here's another that no doubt shows iPad in the lead but certainly not ~gaining~ by any stretch of the imagination. As such, in 24 months, all Android has to do is hold steady and we will see similar numbers. But if Android gains more momentum and Apple continues to hold its course, that's where my prediction of 50-50 by the end of 2013 and Android eclipsing iOS in tablets by the end of 2014.
Note also that Tim Cook's numbers of 91% tablet web traffic share, to me, is invalid, because of not siting any sources and no one has been able to find that figure. Duplicitous at best. For more see: http://www.businessinsider.com/idc-apple-only-has-50-of-the-tablet-market-now-2012-11
Originally Posted by Steven N.
There is no indication Android has eclipsed iOS in cell phones and Android has, at best, 15% market share on tablets. Now I admit here are 100's of millions Android phones that are used as feature phones with 3.5" low test screens and there might be lots of Android tablets sitting on shelves collecting dust, but they do nothing to strengthen the Eco-system and are easily discounted.
Incorrect, and I do not understand why people on this forum refuse to accept facts. At some stage you will have to look at the numbers and accept them. That is all I ask. And please don't cop out by saying "Oh, that's forecast"... The non-forecast figures are there, with plenty of other charts I am not going to waste my time producing when it is all on the Interwebz for all to see.
When I say "refuse to accept facts", please don't take it as an insult. You just can't have it both ways. If you admit on one hand that there's a lot of "cheap, crappy phones" out there, "collecting dust" or not, then that means the Android figures are valid.
Then it is a question of numbers where it matters, that is, mid-to-high-end Android smartphones and tablets. But to do so one must concede the dominance of Android across the board in terms of smartphones.Edited by sr2012 - 1/1/13 at 3:33am