Apple's fiscal Q1 2013 earnings conference call set for Jan. 23

Aww, crap! The marquee tag doesn't work here. I can see it working in the post preview, but it doesn't stay when the post is committed!

I can't wait. The street is giving Apple a gift this year with their negative sentiment. It's going to be a huge upside surprise. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by jragosta 


You obviously haven't been around long. The street always manages to latch on to some tiny bit of bad news no matter how overwhelming the good news is.

Actually that's been proven false.  Amateur investors around here only seem to remember the times it went down, but it's been just as likely to rise.  Which is as it should be.  50/50.

Ok, nobody but me has the balls to say it. (/s)

Apple will sell 50 million iPhones, 25 million iPads (12,5 million each), 20 million iPods (especially the touch model), and 6 million Macs. 

If Apple does not sell this amount of devices, I expect the stock to go as low as 450, even if it should be 1000 ALREADY (growth, growth potential, the only ones innovating since 2000, by far the biggest difference in quality between Apple devices and competitors, huge amounts of net profit).

Why those numbers? If Apple fails to meet ALL (or more) these numbers, bad press will come. Apple can sell 400 million iDevices this quarter, but if they sell 5 million macs, the press will say Apple should stop making them. If Apple sells less than 20 million iPods, no matter what, the main news will be: "iPod is dead. what next? is apple doomed?". You can see the trend here... Hell, Apple can even sell more/better than that, but if the mini outsells the 9.7" iPad, expect the stock to drop because of concerns related with margins and average price per iPad sold.

Am I wrong? I think I'm not.

People forget that good analysts DO NOT EXIST, because if you are a good analyst, you do not need to work for the rest of your live.

Stupid people (Analysts, for example) are the ones responsible for this time of difficulty. They are the ones that start rumors, hype, create expectations and spread fear. Apple Stock is a great example. There's no logic behind it, just stupid people.

Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 
It is all about earnings and margins!

It's pretty much as he said, actually. It's about magical mystery arbitrary numbers of products sold in each category, and when those numbers (which, again, are based on absolutely no fact) aren't met, the stock price goes down.

The stock price goes down because the person that made up these numbers (again, out of thin air) is trusted in the industry as "knowing" what he's doing, even if the person has never been right in his history of predicting Apple sales numbers. Therefore because this person, who has no affiliation with Apple and no knowledge whatsoever of the actual numbers, predicted something that Apple did not fulfill, they continue to not only get paid, but also to keep having a job at all. Because they are "trusted" and they "know".

I'm actually interested to know how the stock buyback is going. I'm not expecting a dividend increase, but it seems possible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 

Pedro... U are making no sense!
It is all about earnings and margins!
The beat estimates and to the moon we go!
All the negativity is already priced in todays pps!
No one is expecting 6 million macs because apple said upfront there will be severe shortage,!
How can anyone in their wildest negativity consider 19 million ipods sold a dead item!
iPhone and iPads will kick butt...
We shall wait and see the outcome.

You're right, Pedro's wrong, and as usual, Tallest Skil is the most clueless person in the room.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

You're right, Pedro's wrong, and as usual, Tallest Skil is the most clueless person in the room.

Please explain it to me, then.

It's like i said the other day, I need a new masters/phd on top of the one I'm getting. To understand "Analysts"  (What the f*ck is that?) and their calculations a masters on Mechanical Engineering + 130 IQ + Culture aren't enough. Poor souls of those that think that thermodynamics are complicated... "Special" Excel sheets and a little bit of magic and nonsense, together with a nice Mix of Gizmodo, Cnet and their sources, are the real deal. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by pedromartins 

Please explain it to me, then.

 

Blah blah blah

You take stock advice from a bunch of partisans so of course you think everything is stacked against you.  It's like talking to a bunch of Cowboys fans who are trying to understand why they didn't have 5 pro-bowlers or to a bunch of teenage girls trying to understand why their favorite Idol didn't win.  They have a built-in prejudice to think that Apple is worth an infinite amount and that anything that pushes the stock down is an evil conspiracy or the work of idiots.

In fact, the market is working as it should.  It does better than any other mechanism ever invented to measure the expected future performance of a company.  Apple has performed excellently in the past 5 years but also has been on death's door before as well, and there are some investors out there who are just waiting for the other shoe to drop and for the stock to go back to zero.  If you think they're wrong, the way you show that is by buying shares.  Then, if you turn out right, then you will make money.  If you turn out wrong, you will lose money.  What an analyst thinks can move the stock up or down briefly by influencing peoples' expectations and thus their actions of buying or selling the stock, but it is those PEOPLE who are moving the stock, not the analyst.  And if all those people, who had their expectations lowered by analysts, are then surprised by how much better earnings were than they expected, well then they're going to buy.

So nothing an analyst (or anyone else) says can move a stock long-term against the underlying fundamentals of the company, its industry and other actual financial realities.  Clearly, having a masters in hard science doesn't help you to understand the market, but maybe this will help.  I suspect you'll bitch and moan instead of learning though, so that's the last free lesson you get for the day.  Since you think the market is stacked against AAPL, a smart and logical person, which I imagine you fancy yourself, should be shorting AAPL right now.  Right?

Disclosure: Long, very long, AAPL.  And laughing my ass off at all the idiots who howl at the moon complaining about analysts.

Originally Posted by cameronj 

In fact, the market is working as it should.  It does better than any other mechanism ever invented to measure the expected future performance of a company.

When Apple's own estimates have always been below reality and the stock doesn't reflect that, I'm sort of wondering if you're wrong here. But you couldn't care less, of course.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

When Apple's own estimates have always been below reality and the stock doesn't reflect that, I'm sort of wondering if you're wrong here. But you couldn't care less, of course.

Apple's estimates haven't always been below reality.  

And exactly how SHOULD a stock reflect a company's estimates?  

Generally accepted stock pricing rules have nothing to do with company estimates, and everything to do with future cash flows.  There, and I said I was done with free lessons.  I guess I figured anyone dumb enough to think that company estimates are a factor that contributes to a stock's price deserves some charity.  Hope you learned something.  Sure you didn't though.  Keep on whining.  Ladies love a whiner.

Do me a favor - without looking it up, tell me how much growth Apple's predictions for this quarter predict over last year's numbers for this quarter.  Go!

Originally Posted by cameronj 
And exactly how SHOULD a stock reflect a company's estimates?

It shouldn't; it should reflect performance. Wouldn't security of investment also be a big deal in this market? But how do you quantify ecosystem, momentum, satisfaction, or quality? The hundred thirty billion in cash should amount to more than its face value, I should think, particularly since they refuse to use it in favor of more frugal pursuits.

So none of that matters, then. The ability to stop selling everything they make and still pay their employees for a decade with the cash-money they have counts for zilch. We're back to predicted per-share price changes vs. reality. If reality doesn't hit predictions, the price goes down, even if they've sold more product, pulled in more revenue, AND made more profit than any quarter on record. I don't get how that's kosher, but then again I am a completely worthless idiot who enjoys huffing chlorine in my copious free time.

Originally Posted by Constable Odo 
Apple shareholders should storm Cupertino and find out what the hell Tim Cook is doing (or should I say what he isn't doing) to get some value out of the company for shareholders.

No. See, you don't get it either. You get that there's a problem, but you have no idea where it comes from.

It's worth 130 billion dollars. At minimum.

Amazon P/E: 3,470.06

Apple P/E: 12.41

Thanks for outright stating you want to sabotage Apple even further than the analysts and speculators already have.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pedromartins 

Ok, nobody but me has the balls to say it. (/s)

 

Apple will sell 50 million iPhones, 25 million iPads (12,5 million each), 20 million iPods (especially the touch model), and 6 million Macs. 

 

If Apple does not sell this amount of devices, I expect the stock to go as low as 450, even if it should be 1000 ALREADY (growth, growth potential, the only ones innovating since 2000, by far the biggest difference in quality between Apple devices and competitors, huge amounts of net profit).

 

Why those numbers? If Apple fails to meet ALL (or more) these numbers, bad press will come. Apple can sell 400 million iDevices this quarter, but if they sell 5 million macs, the press will say Apple should stop making them. If Apple sells less than 20 million iPods, no matter what, the main news will be: "iPod is dead. what next? is apple doomed?". You can see the trend here... Hell, Apple can even sell more/better than that, but if the mini outsells the 9.7" iPad, expect the stock to drop because of concerns related with margins and average price per iPad sold.

 

Am I wrong? I think I'm not.

 

People forget that good analysts DO NOT EXIST, because if you are a good analyst, you do not need to work for the rest of your live.

Stupid people (Analysts, for example) are the ones responsible for this time of difficulty. They are the ones that start rumors, hype, create expectations and spread fear. Apple Stock is a great example. There's no logic behind it, just stupid people.

You're exaggerating more than just slightly.

Yes the market traders like to be negative on Apple, particularly in  the last few years.

Their game is to drive Apple down, then buy as it's rising.  It's all about increasing their trading profit.

Rising then falling stock prices is how the TRADERS  make money.

Also there was profit taking at the end of 2012, in advance of expected much higher USA income taxes.

Now we are again seeing a significant rise in Apple stock price as they gradually buy back in.

As is usual Apple's best price this month will be just before the earnings announcement, then out will come the negatives to drive it back down for a few months.

I decided to join the traders for this current down/up cycle; I'm now watching for my coming soon first sell point!  

It still is hard on your eyes when you are on the computer about 8 hours everyday.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by pedromartins 

Ok, nobody but me has the balls to say it. (/s)

 

Apple will sell 50 million iPhones, 25 million iPads (12,5 million each), 20 million iPods (especially the touch model), and 6 million Macs. 

 

If Apple does not sell this amount of devices, I expect the stock to go as low as 450, even if it should be 1000 ALREADY (growth, growth potential, the only ones innovating since 2000, by far the biggest difference in quality between Apple devices and competitors, huge amounts of net profit).

 

Why those numbers? If Apple fails to meet ALL (or more) these numbers, bad press will come. Apple can sell 400 million iDevices this quarter, but if they sell 5 million macs, the press will say Apple should stop making them. If Apple sells less than 20 million iPods, no matter what, the main news will be: "iPod is dead. what next? is apple doomed?". You can see the trend here... Hell, Apple can even sell more/better than that, but if the mini outsells the 9.7" iPad, expect the stock to drop because of concerns related with margins and average price per iPad sold.

 

Am I wrong? I think I'm not.

 

People forget that good analysts DO NOT EXIST, because if you are a good analyst, you do not need to work for the rest of your live.

Stupid people (Analysts, for example) are the ones responsible for this time of difficulty. They are the ones that start rumors, hype, create expectations and spread fear. Apple Stock is a great example. There's no logic behind it, just stupid people.

From the way the stock price is moving I'd say that the numbers on the 23rd aren't that important. I'm guessing that it's the numbers in April and beyond that they want to hear about. If Apple has mind bending iPad numbers on the 23rd and a record number of iPhones then investors might believe that Apple is on the right track and keep AAPL above the $600 mark. If the iPad numbers are just average then I can see an initial rise in the stock well into the $600s but then it will settle back into the $500s and possibly below.