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Apple expected to see sustained growth in 2013 while rest of industry stays 'muted'

post #1 of 40
Thread Starter 
Growth in the tech sector is expected by one analyst to remain "muted" this year, leaving Apple once again as one of the best ideas for investors to consider.

Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets published a new outlook for the coming year in the technology industry on Friday. In it, his only recommended investments among large-cap tech companies are Apple and EMC.

RBC


"We foresee 2013 to be another year of muted growth but expect demand will be more robust compared to the back half of 2012," Daryanani wrote.

In particular, he foresees PC sales to "remain challenging" this year as touchscreen tablets like Apple's iPad remain a more popular choice for consumers. PC sales could potentially rebound in the second half of the year, he said, thanks to enterprise customers who may be encouraged to upgrade their systems after Microsoft halts support for the Windows XP operating system

As for Apple and its supply chain, Daryanani expects "robust unit growth" over the next year. He has modeled for Apple sales to be up 25 percent in calendar 2013, for a total of 319 million units.

Most market watchers expect that Apple will see its year-over-year gross margins decline in 2013. Daryanani believes that if Apple can maintain or exceed its gross margins from 2012, upside will be seen on the company's earnings estimates.

"From a gross margin perspective, we believe the company should be in the 40-42% range in fiscal year 2013," he wrote. "Notably, a key driver that could add upside to revenue expectations would be the release of a new product line, iTV or otherwise as the company has historically entered a new market on a three years basis."
post #2 of 40

Noooooooooooo. Reeeeeeeeally. lol.gif

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #3 of 40
that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.
post #4 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.

Yeah that's one of the frustrating aspects of the market.  Even if a company is supremely profitable, the stock still falls because it didn't meet the expectations of the street.

 

Personally I feel the time to buy was years ago when Apple was $14 and the time to sell was last year at the peak (more or less).  Now is the time to wait and see.

post #5 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.

 

It seems they are taking your advice.

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #6 of 40
A so this is why Apple's stock was down almost 3% today. 1wink.gif
post #7 of 40
That barchart is ridiculous and compares Apple to the WRONG competitors. Where's Google and Samsung in that chart? Did somebody forget those? LOL!
post #8 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.

 

The decision to sell is a lot more complex than just following what some "analysts" are predicting and what the current share price is.  You need to consider at what price you paid for the stock, tax considerations, and what your investment portfolio and strategy is.

 

Some people will view lowered Apple prices as an opportunity to buy more shares.  

 

When you consider the alternatives with what you can do with your money - what else would you invest your money in after you sell that Apple stock?  Despite what some analysts might think about Apple's actual revenues & profits and not meeting their "expectations", I think I would rather have my money in Apple stock.  

post #9 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoreBeer View Post

That barchart is ridiculous and compares Apple to the WRONG competitors. Where's Google and Samsung in that chart? Did somebody forget those? LOL!

 

Samsung is not an American company and is not traded on any American stock exchange. Google is a search/advertising company, not an electronics or software manufacturer of any importance. The bar chart is correct. Wall Street doesn't give a damn about Samsung because it isn't traded here. Only desperate Apple haters looking to find anything negative care about Samsung. You know, like you for instance.

post #10 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by WelshDog View Post

Yeah that's one of the frustrating aspects of the market.  Even if a company is supremely profitable, the stock still falls because it didn't meet the expectations of the street.

 

That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.  If expectations were low, then Apple could beat them and rise.  But it would rise from a low level.

 

Example: high expectations, stock is at 700, disappoints some people and falls to 650.

Scenario 2: low expectations, stock is at 600, surprises everyone, rises to 650.

 

Same earnings, same end result, different path.


Amateur, immature investors cry about how unfair it all is, but they just don't understand how the world works.

post #11 of 40
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.

 

So unrealistic expectations, created by people who have no idea what the actual situation is, and listened to by everyone else, despite their incorrectness, causes stocks to rise and fall inappropriately. 

 

If stocks are speculation and a price of $700 is "speculation too high", shouldn't the PPS after a quarterly earnings call be in the negative (instead of positive) if that current stock price is wrong? 

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #12 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

So unrealistic expectations, created by people who have no idea what the actual situation is, and listened to by everyone else, despite their incorrectness, causes stocks to rise and fall inappropriately. 

 

If stocks are speculation and a price of $700 is "speculation too high", shouldn't the PPS after a quarterly earnings call be in the negative (instead of positive) if that current stock price is wrong? 

I think you've confused yourself as usual.  Try again, amateur.  Your statement makes no sense.

post #13 of 40

Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?

Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?
 

post #14 of 40
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
I think you've confused yourself as usual.  Try again, amateur.  Your statement makes no sense.

 

Fine, don't bother correcting me and just spew insults. That's the way.


Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?

Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?

 

Because you're an idiot, according to some.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #15 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:21pm
post #16 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?

Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?
 

Because steadily rising market value, when you consider it in context of the hyperbolic stock chart from last year, would result in an INFINITE stock value in no time flat.  When a stock gets ahead of itself (IE amateur investors like Tallest Skil) think that it should go up forever just because it's a profitable company, it goes up too far too fast.  That's when the dumbest of those amateur investors buy more and more, and then the stock hits a wall and corrects back closer to its real value.


Inexperienced, amateur investors (like the one I mentioned above) bitch and whine about how unfair it all is, but they're just lambs to the slaughter for people who actually know what they are doing. You'd think that grown adults would have learned after the bubble of 2000 what a bubble stock chart looks like.  20,000 posts, must have a lot of time on his hands!  Better spend it learning!  I took my college economics classes from Alan Blinder and Paul Krugman, among others.  I wonder where he learned everything he knows?

 

At 700 Apple was not a good investment.  At $500, I believe it is.  That's why I have spend the last month putting about 15% of my investment account into leveraged investments in AAPL.  I'm banking on AAPL being in the neighborhood of $600 within a month after the January earnings report.  Unfortunately the idiot politicians set up another crisis to happen in late Feb, so that may interrupt my plans, but I think I will still be ok.

 

Tallest Skil ignored a question that he didn't know the answer to (or more likely, was ashamed of the answer once he finally looked it up).  Apple is expected this quarter to report earnings that are 4% LOWER than they were last year in this quarter.  Tallest skil is the perfect example of an amateur investor who doesn't have a clue what is going on but still wants to sound smart, so he will lead you to believe that Apple's $527 price (which, by the way, places it at the TOP of the list of most valuable companies in the USA) is super unfair and it is massively undervalued.

 

The fact is, if a company stops growing earnings, the market will punish them.  Now, I think Apple will report earnings this month that are FAR higher than expectations, and that that negative profit growth will actually turn out to be false.  And what will happen, to the chagrin and confusion of Tallest Skil, is that the stock will go up.  Watch, it'll happen.  Apple will report great earnings (I hope, and expect), a bunch of dummies on this Apple FAN board will say "oh great watch the stock drop now" and the stock.... will rise.

 

By the time the next earnings roll around, the dummies will forget about it, and will go back to saying (as they always do) that Apple always falls after beating earnings expectations.  They never seem to get around to asking themselves, if Apple is always falling, then how did it become the most valuable company in America (25% more valuable than #2!)?  Nah, they never confront that obvious contradiction  All they know is that they were so stupid they bought Apple at prices above $650 because other dummies on a apple fan site told them it was a good plan, so they're still underwater.

 

Keep listening to amateurs trying to sound smart... you'll end up believing what they're selling - which is that the market is stacked against the little guy and that your favorite company is being unfairly treated. The actual reality is that the market is stacked against dumb people who can't see the big picture.  Amazingly, some of these dumb people actually broadcast how dumb they are rather than trying to understand why their previous understanding of how the market works was wrong, and to become a smarter and richer person.  

 

It's a mystery to me.

 

Buy low, sell high, dummies


Edited by cameronj - 1/4/13 at 4:00pm
post #17 of 40

Well thanks for the "idiot comment" TS, I presume (hope) you left out the /sarcasm tag on purpose.  As an unsophisticated AAPL stock owner, I was just asking if anyone had a view why Apple seems to have such wild swings in the market.  Can anyone name companies that are doing as well as Apple that have the same volatility?
 

post #18 of 40
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
post

 

That's hilarious. Insult other members here and then report members for referencing your insults. Ah, humor.


Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post
Well thanks for the "idiot comment" TS, I presume (hope) you left out the /sarcasm tag on purpose.

 

Nope. Because I didn't call you an idiot and the person who did wasn't being sarcastic.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #19 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.  If expectations were low, then Apple could beat them and rise.  But it would rise from a low level.

 

Example: high expectations, stock is at 700, disappoints some people and falls to 650.

Scenario 2: low expectations, stock is at 600, surprises everyone, rises to 650.

 

Same earnings, same end result, different path.


Amateur, immature investors cry about how unfair it all is, but they just don't understand how the world works.

I'm completely aware of all that, I just think it's stupid and another of the many failings of human beings.

post #20 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

That's hilarious. Insult other members here and then report members for referencing your insults. Ah, humor.

 

 

Nope. Because I didn't call you an idiot and the person who did wasn't being sarcastic.

I find it very interesting that when I click "report a post", the result of that goes to someone posting on the thread, participating in the insults that are being reported. Regardless of the merit of the complaint and the back and forth, surely I'm not the only one who objects to a thread participant also being it's judge and jury.

 

I didn't call Sumergo an idiot.  I reserve that for others.  On this thread politicians.  Usually I just call you a dummy, because I don't think you have the sophistication for anything more.  Your lack of knowledge is more like that of a child who has never been instructed.

 

He asked a legit question and I answered it extensively.  I will even allow you, the moderator/flamer to read it and learn from it, though I suspect you won't.

 

Edit: click here to see an Apple chart for the last 5 years.  Draw a straight line from Jan 2009 to today.  Does that help what happened in the last year make more sense?  Bubble, popped, now back to trend growth.


Edited by cameronj - 1/4/13 at 4:41pm
post #21 of 40

Cameronj:  thanks for the civil answer.  Although I'm an amateur investor, I got into AAPL low, and expect (someday) to sell high.  Who knows when, and at what price, that might be.  Wherever Apple stocks go over the next year, I'm still interested in hearing comments about why the stock fluctuates so wildly.  Is this just "random market forces" that apply to all successful companies?  Just asking.
 

post #22 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

Cameronj:  thanks for the civil answer.  Although I'm an amateur investor, I got into AAPL low, and expect (someday) to sell high.  Who knows when, and at what price, that might be.  Wherever Apple stocks go over the next year, I'm still interested in hearing comments about why the stock fluctuates so wildly.  Is this just "random market forces" that apply to all successful companies?  Just asking.
 

No, it's not random, it's the result of millions of investors hearing news every day and trying to assimilate it.  A stock that is so highly valued has "baked in" a lot of very high expectations.  Even after falling as much as it has, it's still by 25% the most valuable company in America.  That implies that a lot of people still expect a lot of growth.


Every day, when news hits, those millions of investors have to make a decision about whether to buy or sell.  Even if the news is great... say Apple's Mac growth was 6% instead of a 6% decline, right?  So say 90% of holders of Apple stock expected worse, and 10% expected better.  But if those 90% who expected worse (and thus are pleasantly surprised) already own a lot of Apple (which they probably do, because of the huge run-up) might not be up for buying even MORE.  Meanwhile, those 10% who were disappointed in the number are apt to sell.  So even news that impressed 90% of investors and disappoints 10% can cause the stock to drop.  If those 90% are just holding, and 10% are looking to unload some... well that means nobody is buying but many are selling!

 

Same thing happens with earnings.  Just because the "consensus" estimate is, say $10 EPS, understand that that means that somewhere around half expected more, and the rest expected less.  So when earnings hit and they're $11, that doesn't mean that there will be more buyers the next day than sellers.  

 

The market is a weighing machine.  Despite what under-educated amateur investors might tell you, there's nothing that any individual can do to move a stock like Apple.  All facts about Apple are so widely disseminated so quickly that the only thing that moves the stock are masses and masses of people buying or selling every day.

 

If an analyst comes out and says "sell" Apple, but there isn't good reason for millions of people to think he's right, then millions of OTHER people will quickly step in and buy the shares that those other millions are trying to sell.  In the long run, the value of the stock will reflect the underlying fundamentals of the company, fluctuating around that fair value as a result of overblown good and bad news in the short term.  The whiners complain about the unfair drop over the past 6 months, but they neglect to thank the universe for the unfair rise that happened the 12 months before that.  To them, it's like it is for a 5 year old.  Give a 5 year old a lolly, and then take it away, and he starts crying.  Do the same to an adult and they SHOULD understand that they are left just as they were 5 minutes ago.

post #23 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.

What does Apple have to hit in order to be GROUND BREAKING?  If they have higher earnings per share than the 2011 December quarter, wouldn't that be a positive sign?  And what are you basing your prediction on?  Personally, the sales are definitely carrying over to this quarter.

 

I just stopped by an Apple Store and that place was PACKED and this is on a Friday afternoon.  Most of the people were adults and i saw a LOT of laptops being purchased and set up and a few Windows people brought their computers in to be transferred.  But it was actually packed with customers just as much as a Saturday.  But i saw a LOT of people buying actual computers AND tablets AND smartphone AND iMacs.  It was a mad house.  At least, this is what I saw at one Apple Store.   Sometimes I think Apple might want to double the store size at some of their locations.

post #24 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

that's a reason to sell! sell! sell! sell! sell! I predict Apple's qtrly results will not be record-breaking enough.

I'd be willing to have a gentleman's bet that Apple will have higher net profits per share than they did for the 2011 December quarter. Which would be RECORD BREAKING.  If Apple sold more like 50 Million iPhone 5's, wouldn't that be a LOT more in revenue than last Dec quarter for which they sold around 38 Million units.

 

I think Apple should be doing at least $52 Billion dollars for Dec 2012 vs. about $48 Billion for Gross Revenue, which would be another record.  I think Apple had guidance on $52 Billion for the quarter, but I haven't heard anything that it was going to be lower than that.  So, they might blow those numbers out. But I'll stick to at least $52 BIllion in Revenue.

 

I think the iMac sales are going to be low just because they took a while before starting to ship, so most of the iMac sales will be for THIS quarter than last quarter when they were announced.

 

Apple has been making announcements, but the actually bulk of that product's sales typically come in the quarter following, which is why they announced the iPhone/iPods in the Sept quarter because those are Dec products.  The iMacs and Mac mini and 13 inch MBPR were Dec announcements for next quarter in terms of the bulk of the sales for those products.

post #25 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

That's because the only reason the stock is as high as it is before such news reports is that expectations are high.  If expectations were low, then Apple could beat them and rise.  But it would rise from a low level.

 

Example: high expectations, stock is at 700, disappoints some people and falls to 650.

Scenario 2: low expectations, stock is at 600, surprises everyone, rises to 650.

 

Same earnings, same end result, different path.


Amateur, immature investors cry about how unfair it all is, but they just don't understand how the world works.

Even some of the analysts haven't a clue. They act like the iPhone sky is falling because Apple sold less than 10 Million iPhone 5's in the Sept quarter, even though they easily forget that the product wasn't released until the last 10 days in only a small portion of their total market and that they couldn't keep up with the initial demand for well over a couple of months.   I think overall, Apple will see at least a 30% increase in fiscal 2013 from 2012 and even more if/when they open up China Mobile and a line of actual TV sets.  I think the stock is priced well and I don't see it going down below a P/E ratio of much less than 12.  That's about the bottom in terms of P/E for Apple.


Edited by drblank - 1/4/13 at 5:19pm
post #26 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:21pm
post #27 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I find it very interesting that when I click "report a post", the result of that goes to someone posting on the thread, participating in the insults that are being reported. Regardless of the merit of the complaint and the back and forth, surely I'm not the only one who objects to a thread participant also being it's judge and jury.

 

He could have someone else moderate threads where he's entrenched in the discussion.

post #28 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:20pm
post #29 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

 

You're too good a writer to squander the value of the rest of your posts anyway, so it just doesn't benefit anyone to hurl insults given that they were largely unprovoked.

The insults are from past transgressions, not this current thread (obviously).  He's earned every one of them.  There was no reprimand, nor was there one deserved.


I mean really - he called the other poster an idiot and I hit the "report this post" link, and the report went to HIM.  You are REALLY going to defend that fact?

post #30 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:19pm
post #31 of 40
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

You may enjoy the less cultish conversational tone at CultOfMac, 9to5Mac, MacRumors, Ars Technica, or any of the other sites with a less obvious advertising strategy.

 

"Less cultish" = "anti-Apple trolls allowed to run wild, unchecked, unchallenged, unbanned, making for a worthless discussion".

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #32 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:19pm
post #33 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

This is somehow categorically worse than pro-Apple trolls allowed to run wild, unchecked, unchallenged, unbanned, making for a worthless discussion?

 

At least at other sites all views are given equal consideration, allowed to stand on their own merit regardless whether they follow the marketing mantras of any particular brand.

You're replying to one of those pro-apple trolls, so don't expect him to agree with you.  And don't expect, apparently, to be able to get any help from a moderator since it's a moderator who does much of the trolling.

post #34 of 40

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:19pm
post #35 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?

Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?
 


There's other factors that affect stock price like the market in general. Election year 2012 (November) was crucial as it laid out the plans for the next 4 years. Many investors were in flux to see who the next president would be. If you look at every stock in the history of mankind there are ups and downs. Apple happened to have their peak in the $700's and are now at the bottom of the peak (around $500). If you draw a line through the curve, there's nothing out of the ordinary at their current price.

 

I think the lack of Steve Jobs has some people on edge. He was their leader and visionary and many of us remember what happened to Apple the last time he wasn't there (it wasn't pretty).

 

I got in at $508 and I'm holding on. I would buy more if I had the money. AAPL is without question a good investment but many people only look at the charts and trends and do not look at the company,  their ideals, business practices, or products. By the time AAPL announces their quarterly earnings in a few weeks their cash reserves should be around $130B. They are a bank with a technology company attached to it.

 

$130B is an insane amount of cash. If their board went completely brain dead for ideas, they could simply use the cash to snatch up other profitable tech companies and add them to their portfolio. They wouldn't even have to come out with anymore breakthrough products, although they probably will. I see very little risk or downside investing in AAPL.

post #36 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

Seriously though.  Why isn't such a continually successful company as Apple seen by the markets as a "buy, buy, buy" with steadily rising stock value?

Why IS the stock so volatile when it seems such a good investment?
 

 

Stock prices are based on various valuation formulas.  For instance, the overall value of the company (ie. market cap) based on revenue, sales, cash flows, and profits.  Of course, the overall value also factors in an 'exit' scenario, in other words how the long-term investor will be able to realize value without simply selling to the next investor (so, share buybacks and dividends). 

 

If every stock price merely went up when the company does well, and goes down when it doesn't, investing would be easy, but not only that, markets wouldn't function.  Markets are a pricing mechanism, that always take into account the 'exit' strategy.  This is why mega cap stocks always have relatively poor valuations compared to mid cap or smaller big cap companies. 

 

You can't look at present performance of any firm to determine value, you need to look at the company's potential for growth, how it's currently being valued, and a slew of other factors. 

 

Apple's current volatility is related to the fact that a whole bunch of people who already have bought it are selling for profit, and a bunch of others are buying it in anticipation of possible good earnings results. It does seem that the selling pressure is larger than the buying support, for now. 

post #37 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
Stock prices are based on various valuation formulas.

Hey Mikeb85, I've got some swamp land in Florida I can sell you.

post #38 of 40

iSlumpTM

Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
Reply
Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
Reply
post #39 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by WelshDog View Post

Yeah that's one of the frustrating aspects of the market.  Even if a company is supremely profitable, the stock still falls because it didn't meet the expectations of the street.

 

Personally I feel the time to buy was years ago when Apple was $14 and the time to sell was last year at the peak (more or less).  Now is the time to wait and see.

Duh , ya think? It's easy to say that now, after you get to see the AAPL stock chart for the past 10 years.

post #40 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by White Lotus View Post

Hey Mikeb85, I've got some swamp land in Florida I can sell you.

The line is "I have some waterfront land in FL to sell you"

 

See... that's what makes it funny... because... well, forget it.

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