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Tablets predicted to surpass notebook PC shipments this year

post #1 of 53
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Shipments of tablets, led by Apple's iPad, have grown at such an unprecedented pace that they are now projected to outpace traditional notebook PCs worldwide this year.

NPD


The latest data from NPD DisplaySearch calls for the tablet market to surpass notebooks in 2013. Tablets are expected to reach shipments of 240 million units this year, while 207 million notebooks will be shipped.

DisplaySearch noted that to date the iPad market has been "dominated by one major player, Apple." But the research firm expects that competitors will grow this year, leading total shipments to rise 64 percent year over year.

"The tablet market has been led by Apple's 9.7-inch iPad, but in 2013 a new class of small tablets will take over the market," DisplaySearch said. "Tablet PCs with 7-to-8-inch screen sizes are expected to account for 45 percent, or 108 million units of the market in 2013, overtaking the 9.7-inch size which will account for 17 percent share or about 41 million units."

The largest market is expected to remain North America, with a 35 percent share of shipments and 85 million total units. But close behind will be China, forecast to see 65 million units and 27 percent share.

Both countries are already ahead of the curve: tablet shipments outpaced notebook PCs in 2012.

NPD


The latest prediction from NPD DisplaySearch shows just how quickly the market has changed. It was six months ago, in July 2012, that the same organization predicted that it would take until 2016 for tablets to surpass notebook shipments.

But on Wednesday, DisplaySearch noted that notebook PC shipments have continued to slow, even in emerging markets, while tablets continue to grow.

"The tablet PC market saw increasing investments in North America in the second half of 2012, from major brands that tested not only new screen sizes and price points, but also unconventional business models to support their efforts," said Richard Shim, senior analyst with NPD DisplaySearch. The subsequent increase in shipments and demand underscored the benefits of segmentation in the market as it drove rapid market expansion. In 2013, further investments are expected worldwide, stoking demand to the point that tablet PC shipments will exceed those of notebook PCs."
post #2 of 53
Wait until the iPad mini goes A6 with a retina display. OMFG!
post #3 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Wait until the iPad mini goes A6 with a retina display. OMFG!

Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.

post #4 of 53
Two things:

1) Add whatever it takes to make the iPad Mini a viable alternative to a cell phone -- BT earphone/mic and hold to ear in a pinch.

2) Office Apps... Legacy PC Apps... Emerging countries don't need no stinkin' Legacy PC Apps!

The iPad Mini is just about the perfect vehicle to satisfy the mobile computing/communication needs for most of the people of the world...

There, I've said it!
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/9/13 at 5:55am
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post #5 of 53

Also if they can increase the storage will help for some people that like to add too much stuff and 64GB is not enough.

post #6 of 53
So, I wonder what Apple's computer market share is now. I know that most reports do not include the iPad, but they should.
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post #7 of 53
Is a 'Chrome Book' or whatever they are called classed as a Netbook?
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post #8 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

So, I wonder what Apple's computer market share is now. I know that most reports do not include the iPad, but they should.

These are the figures for 2011. Apple's share probably increased in 2012.
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/08/notebook-marketshare-ipad/
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post #9 of 53
So even heavy laptops with detachable keyboards that owners would control with trackpads most of the time are counted as "tablets" now? Perhaps by virtue of cross-dressing the PC in tablet clothing, Microsoft can "win back" market share.

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post #10 of 53

Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 

post #11 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

DisplaySearch noted that to date the iPad market has been "dominated by one major player, Apple."

The iPad market has been dominated by Apple? Who'd'a thunk it...
post #12 of 53
Originally Posted by JimofD View Post
Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 

 

Do you know what you're talking about? He's talking about every file. Photos are a different beast.


Edited by Tallest Skil - 1/9/13 at 7:22am

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post #13 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimofD View Post

Do you know what you are talking about? I have been able to download PDF, JPEG to my iPad 2 every since I got it. 
He's thinking about Android not being able to open these standard files. They just gained the ability to open vCard address files in the newest version. Apple has supported this since the first iPhone. It has worked in office just as long.
post #14 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Shipments of tablets, led by Apple's iPad, have grown at such an unprecedented pace that they are now projected to outpace traditional notebook PCs worldwide this year.
NPD

 

The part after 2014 on this graph, where they assume that the growth of tablets will start to slow down, is pretty obviously just a wild guess.  

 

Where the balance between laptops and tablets is, and how many of each category will eventually fill the market is something we still have to find out.  It seems far more likely to me that eventually we will be looking at a 90/10 split on tablets/laptops not the 70/30 split they are selling here.  I could easily be wrong but so could they.  

 

My point is only that these guys are just guessing on this point, and it's not even an educated guess.  There is simply no data, and no way to predict the eventual outcome here.   

 

Also, since other than the fact that tablet sales are going up, the "leveling off" shown after 2014 is pretty much the entirety of this prediction, and since they admit to being dead wrong on their last prediction ... 

post #15 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.

 

For 80% of the world, I think 'any file _I_ want'  is covered. and 'any video I want' is limited only by the video content owners deciding whether or not to participate directly (iTMS) or indirectly (Apps) in the iOS ecosystem.

 

Agreed, Off Net use is the primary requirement met by PCs and laptops.   However, the gap between On and Off Line is narrowing.   The computational model is reverting back to 'always connected' (ala pre-PC days).  But the transition is having a 'local working set'  that anticipates your less and less disconnected moments.

 

More importantly, you forget to mention 'use'    (as opposed to save or download)  'any type' of  File/Video content.  The AppStore environment covers that space, again, so long as the creators of the format consider the iOS users theirs to support.

 

Most non iOS compliant Video content is driven by bypassing standards for cost and/or reducing bandwidth and storage impact.  The fact that bandwidth and storage costs are going to $zero, mean that Apple, by adopting industry standards is under no long term obligation to build support into their system (flash).    

 

Where is the thriving Ogg Vorbis ecosystem?  Is YouTube doubling down on Flash delivery?    I think your argument that there is PC Killer yet is misrepresenting the already apparent end game.

post #16 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Is a 'Chrome Book' or whatever they are called classed as a Netbook?

 

To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  

 

Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  

post #17 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

So even heavy laptops with detachable keyboards that owners would control with trackpads most of the time are counted as "tablets" now? Perhaps by virtue of cross-dressing the PC in tablet clothing, Microsoft can "win back" market share.

Yes, very clever. For each 'device' sold they can notch up one tablet, one laptop, and if in doubt, one netbook. Hell, if its big enough shouldn't it also count as a desktop? Marketshare - woo-hoo!

post #18 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.

 

Nah, disagree.  The way you've worded it here, you're wrong because technically, the iPad can do those things already and always could.  If your meaning is instead that they need to be able to "sideload" content for the iPad to be successful, then I think you're still wrong in that most folks basically don't care too much about that or do it that much.  If you are referring to the users having access to the file system on the device, then you are equally mistaken if you think this is something the average user needs/wants.  

 

Access to the web so they can see cat videos on this that or the other site is far more important than the ability to save the cat video in question.   

 

I can't think of much that it on the web that actually *can't* be saved on your iPad one way or another.  All the pictures and documents certainly can.  I can't think of any video sites (except perhaps the flash based ones) that won't play on an iPad and the iPad has native apps for all the major video sites like Vimeo and YouTube.  

post #19 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Two things:
1) Add whatever it takes to make the iPad Mini a viable alternative to a cell phone -- BT earphone/mic and hold to ear in a pinch.
2) Office Apps... Legacy PC Apps... Emerging countries don't need no stinkin' Legacy PC Apps!
The iPad Mini is just about the perfect vehicle to satisfy the mobile computing/communication needs for most of the people of the world...
There, I've said it!

Piling on...

 

The Mini, and eventually the 'entry level Mini'  (last years model) coupled with LTE/3G support in world wide markets is the iOS entry into the 'OLPC' world (especially for OLPA - one laptop per adult).  As the LTE enabled price approaches sub $250, and connectivity to carriers approach $10/month, it's becoming affordable for those who can justify cell access.

 

If you assume that WiFi will be the more predominant than cell coverage, then the price drops pretty close to $100 in a couple years. (my guess is this years Mini will drop to $250 when the MiniRD is announced, and if the current resolution is maintained then 2012 mini will be sold at $150 in 2014).

 

Apple believes in Facetime, and well there is Skype, and that becomes the phone app.

 

While I don't believe that Apple feels it's responsible to put a laptop into everyones hands, I do think it sees the value in it, especially as iTMS becomes more of a profit center.

post #20 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

 

Nah, disagree.  The way you've worded it here, you're wrong because technically, the iPad can do those things already and always could.  If your meaning is instead that they need to be able to "sideload" content for the iPad to be successful, then I think you're still wrong in that most folks basically don't care too much about that or do it that much.  If you are referring to the users having access to the file system on the device, then you are equally mistaken if you think this is something the average user needs/wants.  

 

Access to the web so they can see cat videos on this that or the other site is far more important than the ability to save the cat video in question.   

 

I can't think of much that it on the web that actually *can't* be saved on your iPad one way or another.  All the pictures and documents certainly can.  I can't think of any video sites (except perhaps the flash based ones) that won't play on an iPad and the iPad has native apps for all the major video sites like Vimeo and YouTube.  

If you want to apply to a job online, and you need to upload your resume... there is not way in hell that Safari can upload Microsoft word documents.

post #21 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

If you want to apply to a job online, and you need to upload your resume... there is not way in hell that Safari can upload Microsoft word documents.

I don't know about Safari, but it's very easy to email your resume from Pages as an MS word document.
post #22 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.


Right.  Because since you're discussing more tech-saavy uses, it's not like there are tons of ways already to do just that. :/

For the majority of tablet users, it's a non-issue.

post #23 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  

Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  

In the look only. I don't think any Chromebooks are running Intel Core CPUs, which I think is a requirements for Intel's classification.

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post #24 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes 

 

What are you talking about?

 

It does. It's been doing that for a long time. Standard. No jailbreaks. 

 

PDF, AVi, MKV, WMV, everything. Can be opened in any number of apps. Azul media player, iFiles, ZenViewer, etc. Can be downloaded in so many ways. iCab Browser, iDownloader, etc. There is so much functionality to some apps out there, it's mind-blwoing, but should really come as no surprise. 

 

There's an app for everything. 


Edited by Quadra 610 - 1/9/13 at 10:14am
post #25 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

 

To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  

 

Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  

Have you spent any time using a Chromebook? This article's author feels quite the opposite about it's having "horrible software"

http://www.zdnet.com/google-chromebook-3-months-in-7000009563/

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post #26 of 53

Re: "...but in 2013 a new class of small tablets will take over the market..."

 

Maybe it's time Apple shipped a smaller iPad.  An iPad mini or iPad nano or something.

 

Oh wait.  Yeah, never mind.  Somebody call NPD.  Please.

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post #27 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

The part after 2014 on this graph, where they assume that the growth of tablets will start to slow down, is pretty obviously just a wild guess.  

I particularly like the part where they list sales by screen size going several years into the future -and predict massive sales for a few screen sizes that don't even exist today.
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post #28 of 53

The point isn't "average user" vs "power user", but "entertainment" vs "productivity". In other words, iOS is well suited for entertainment and communication needs, but on the other hand it's poor at productivity. You really need a filesystem for productivity tasks, no matter if you're a power user or an average user. But sure, for entertainment and communication, no filesystem is needed.

 

How are you supposed to use a paint app for drawing figures that then you need to insert in a text document, which in turn needs to be exported as PDF, and do this without a file system? And, even if you can (after endless "send to" apps connections), what do you do if your boss then tells you to modify the figures. How do you reinsert the new figures in the text document, regenerate the PDF, etc, without a file system?

 

Yes, sure, you can, but once you realize the number of "send to" connections needed, it's obvious you're not being productive.

 

In other words, tablets will surpass notebooks because either people won't use them for productivity, or otherwise they'll be buying a tablet with a filesystem if they need productive use.

post #29 of 53

I haven't hit that limit (though I'm close on my standard iPad) but isn't that (larger storage capacity than 64GB) what the Cloud is largely for? Granted that pretty much mandates LTE to supplement WiFi but evenso.

post #30 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

The point isn't "average user" vs "power user", but "entertainment" vs "productivity". In other words, iOS is well suited for entertainment and communication needs, but on the other hand it's poor at productivity. You really need a filesystem for productivity tasks, no matter if you're a power user or an average user. But sure, for entertainment and communication, no filesystem is needed.

That's true - only if your version of 'productivity' is the only one that exists.

Ask the American Airlines and other pilots who are using iPads for their manuals rather than paper books.

Ask the doctors who are using iPads for xray evaluation.

Ask the people who are using iPads at trade shows to demonstrate their products.

Ask the service people who keep their manuals on their iPads so they don't have to carry 100 pounds of books.

The iPad is quite useful for 'productivity'. It is not, however, a full blown laptop computer. The two statements are not contradictory.
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post #31 of 53
I think the next killer device, whether from Apple or a 3rd party will be a headless home server... call it a 'Mi-Cloud'. A device that is 'headless' and configuration is done through an iOS app and/or browser. Storage capable AppleTV (again)?... TimeCapsule?... Airport Extreme?...or something simple as this:

http://www.tuaw.com/2013/01/08/ces-2013-kanex-introduces-medrive-a-simple-file-server-for-ide/

I realize there are NAS devices now... but they are scary for the average consumer to set up and maintain. Add in affordable gigabyte streaming with new 802.11ac chips/routers, additional storage through USB or TB... and this type of device is a no-brainer for just about every household with an iOS/mobile device.

Adding to the need of such a device, I think the days of Apple being able to charge $100,00 for doubled storage is coming to an end shortly in order to stay price-competitive. Not everyone needs a Notebook or PC even today, with iCloud, Amazon, gdrive, skydrive, Dropbox, etc. However for some people, the cloud is a scary place and many are skeptical of it's ubiquity.

@maclancer -- It is on such a device where pictures, videos, documents of all kinds can be saved and recalled at any time.... and with Smart Folders and scripts... sent, saved, converted, organized (folder hierarchy for example), etc. however you like. Even back to your iOS device. Until that day, there's many an app that can save just about any document ever created... including video: check out vDownload.

@DA -- I'm positive in the very near future SIM trays will be on all tablets and no longer be an expensive option. At that point, there will be no reason NOT to include telephony options on every iOS device. This certainly makes more sense than adding 3g/LTE to notebooks, where USB sticks will suffice until the time when laptops are no longer needed by most consumers, which will be upon us faster than any of us can imagine.

In a truly perfect world, LTE will reach "full coverage" ASAP, and to the point competition can play it's role in bringing down monthly prices and more generous data caps are the norm. At that point, 128gb storage will be the max that I can imagine anyone needing on a mobile device for a long time. Half of that 128gb will surely be RAM disk.

My predictions:
  1. I'm going with the 90/10 tablet/notebook split within 2 years.
  2. 13" and 15" models to come shortly.
  3. For the "work crowd", a fusioned BT keyboard-trackpad should work just fine for common office tasks.
  4. The 10% that truly need "trucks" will slowly but eventually be replaced as well, especially within the creative arts. With 802.11ac wireless speeds coupled with hybrid SSD/RAM read/write routines, you have the ability to use tablets as a true real-time input/viewing device.
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post #32 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That's true - only if your version of 'productivity' is the only one that exists.
Ask the American Airlines and other pilots who are using iPads for their manuals rather than paper books.
Ask the doctors who are using iPads for xray evaluation.
Ask the people who are using iPads at trade shows to demonstrate their products.
Ask the service people who keep their manuals on their iPads so they don't have to carry 100 pounds of books.
The iPad is quite useful for 'productivity'. It is not, however, a full blown laptop computer. The two statements are not contradictory.

 

"ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources (audio, scanned images, frames from video, or even the output from the xray evaluation you said), and whenever you need to create new material from these sources, that's productivity. It's obvious iOS is too poor at this, no matter if the user is "power" or "average".

 

Even the simplest "productivity" task, such as making a portfolio from all the work you did last year cannot be done in a reasonable way without a filesystem.

 

So, yes, tablets can surpass laptops, but as I said only if you'll use them only for entertaining and communication, or if you get one with a filesystem.

 

Agreed iOS is fine for ebook use, though.

post #33 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

 

"ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources ......

 

 

In most jobs, the issue is not to create a digital document, you know ....

post #34 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

 

"ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources (audio, scanned images, frames from video, or even the output from the xray evaluation you said), and whenever you need to create new material from these sources, that's productivity. It's obvious iOS is too poor at this, no matter if the user is "power" or "average".

 

Even the simplest "productivity" task, such as making a portfolio from all the work you did last year cannot be done in a reasonable way without a filesystem.

 

So, yes, tablets can surpass laptops, but as I said only if you'll use them only for entertaining and communication, or if you get one with a filesystem.

 

Agreed iOS is fine for ebook use, though.


Sure, let's define something to suit our arguments. Very effective ... in a closed system. By system, I'm referring to mind.

post #35 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

"ebook use" cannot be considered productivity.

Sorry, I guess I missed the UN designation that you get to define all terms related to computer usage. Sorry. /s

Of course, in the real world, your definition is ridiculous.
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post #36 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk_lab View Post


In most jobs, the issue is not to create a digital document, you know ....

All of my friends, colleagues, or relatives, are either professors/teachers (so they need to prepare material for their classes, and this needs a filesystem) or are architects (so need to create digital projects with CAD, video, hand drawings, and calculation sheets, which needs a filesystem) or are lawyers (so they need to efficiently manage data of different sources and types for each case, which again needs a filesystem) or are secretaries (so their work involves tons of office documents, together with photos and other digital contents, so, yes, this needs a filesystem too)

So I don't know what you mean by "most jobs", but all people I know work in an environment that needs a filesystem, and it cannot be done on an iPad, just because of that reason. It could be done on a tablet with a filesystem, though

However, it's true that all of these jobs can benefit from an iPad, but just for viewing files, showing a presentation, or taking notes. Unfortunately it cannot be used for the main tasks of their jobs. So if they buy iPads, they'll also need to buy computers. The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario
Edited by ecs - 1/9/13 at 9:55pm
post #37 of 53

Originally Posted by ecs View Post

The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario.[citation needed]

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post #38 of 53

Yes, and a lot of things you do in real life have the nature of a project. Just recall how you did homework when you were at school:

 

A) The natural human way of doing homework at school: You keep a different notebook (a paper notebook, not a computer) for each subject. When you do an exercise, all its content (text, math, drawings,...) are in the same pages so that you can understand the exercise from its start to its conclusion. And you usually start a new page when you start a different type of exercise, so that your notebook has a comfortable structure.

 

B) The way you'd do homework with an iPad: The school exercises would be done in this fashion: All text is put in a text app. All math is put in an equation app. All drawings are put in a paint app. And so on.

 

Now suppose you've to add a little more of text, a couple of new equations, and a new small figure, to an exercise you did two months ago. The student A would take the notebook of that subject, go to the page of the exercise, and there it is, where all this stuff can be added. The student B would go to the text app, and search for the text of that exercise, then edit it to the new changes. Then, the equation app, search for the equations of the exercise, and edit it. Then the paint app, and so on.

 

In conclusion, the iPad proposes a non-natural way of doing tasks. Filesystems are not an invention, but the computer translation of how humans tend to do tasks in real life even way before than computers existed. Tasks in real life aren't "app-centered", but "task-centered".

 

When you travel to some place and you want to keep memories of that place, you don't have a box for the pictures of all places you visit, another box for the videos of all trips, another box for paper stuff of all places... that's not the natural way. The natural way is to organize such memories by places, and not by "app". That's how people have always done things for centuries, long before computers existed.

 

In fewer words:

 

Can the iPad be used for reading ebooks, taking photos, taking notes, viewing stuff, web surfing, email, and gaming?

Yes!!!

 

Can the iPad be used for tasks other than these?

No.

 

Can a tablet with a filesystem substitute the need for computers?

Yes. Absolutely. And it's true as of today (but not with an iPad, for the reasons explained).

post #39 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

All of my friends, colleagues, or relatives, are either professors/teachers (so they need to prepare material for their classes, and this needs a filesystem) or are architects (so need to create digital projects with CAD, video, hand drawings, and calculation sheets, which needs a filesystem) or are lawyers (so they need to efficiently manage data of different sources and types for each case, which again needs a filesystem) or are secretaries (so their work involves tons of office documents, together with photos and other digital contents, so, yes, this needs a filesystem too)

I don't see a file system native on any iOS device ever. There simply is no need for one in the near future.

I use multiple file systems on connected drives, servers, Macs and cloud services daily. It is here that your file systems and project folders will live. Personal "cloud servers" for consumers will be the next must have device for the home. 802.11ac will be how you connect to them, manipulating the files and folder organization with automatic external cloud syncing on demand for mobility.
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So I don't know what you mean by "most jobs", but all people I know work in an environment that needs a filesystem, and it cannot be done on an iPad, just because of that reason. It could be done on a tablet with a filesystem, though

Most jobs "today" are still reeling from "Innovation Binge-Drinking", and drunkenly trying to figure out how these new mobile devices and enabling tech fits into 1990's hangover-workflows. Patience. It's coming together far faster than you can order, receive and drink the next "bottle of tech goodness".
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However, it's true that all of these jobs can benefit from an iPad, but just for viewing files, showing a presentation, or taking notes. Unfortunately it cannot be used for the main tasks of their jobs. So if they buy iPads, they'll also need to buy computers. The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario

Not completely true. It may very well be that we're still waiting for certain parts (tech) to be developed and widely integrated (see personal cloud servers, rather than computers). You're also lumping far too many job titles/tasks/descriptions into one group. The average teacher does NOT have the same needs as an engineer or an architect, creatives that will need a "truck" for a while longer than teacher will.

Even a salesperson, human resources exec., lawyer, etc. have different needs when it comes to enabling "productivity" on any mobile device.

Take the lawyer....or the teacher: what part of their job can they NOT do on an iOS device?

I believe both of those jobs are still more than 50% text-based, are they not? Apps for writing, dictating, outlining, planning, reviewing, grading, etc. are all out there. Files are then saved to the cloud in a file system for later refinement, editing, integration within a current workflow using even legacy software (Office)... whatever.

The trick is in the workflow and matching it realistically to the mobile tech we have now, with a keen eye to what we'll have available in a very short time.

I was one of the young guys that did this rather successfully 25 years ago with the advent of the Mac. Did either of those fit in seamlessly with the tech and printing industry of the time? No. However within 5 years, we were seriously kicking Typesetting/Litho house butt all over the place! Did they ever catch up? Some did.. but most old-school businesses in the industry died a bitter death after refusing to change that one little thing: their workflow.

Consider thinking outside the box before you absolutely have to to survive... or before it's too late! 1cool.gif
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #40 of 53
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Originally Posted by ecs View Post

Yes, and a lot of things you do in real life have the nature of a project. Just recall how you did homework when you were at school:

No. Do not think or teach that way at all if you're over 25!
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In conclusion, the iPad proposes a non-natural way of doing tasks. Filesystems are not an invention, but the computer translation of how humans tend to do tasks in real life even way before than computers existed.

<<<<skip the nonsense!!!>>>>
Question to bold statement above: you happen to be one of those folks from 25 years ago that poo-pooed the mouse and GUI by any chance?
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Tasks in real life aren't "app-centered", but "task-centered".

How right you are... but this does not buttress your argument in the least. It points out why we use computers in the first place, and are more productive because of them and their ability to do a hell of a lot more multitasking than any human can do with only 2 hands and 1 brain at their disposal.

Ever hear of "mash up"?
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When you travel to some place and you want to keep memories of that place, you don't have a box for the pictures of all places you visit, another box for the videos of all trips, another box for paper stuff of all places... that's not the natural way. The natural way is to organize such memories by places, and not by "app". That's how people have always done things for centuries, long before computers existed.

Are you claiming you glued your 16mm home movies or VHS cassette into your scrapbook or family photo album? I bet you didn't... and I bet the box with any of the films is probably nowhere near your coffee table. But your iPad is. And if you took the time (currently) on your Mac through iPhoto, you just might have everything: photo, film, snapshots of menus, hotels, whatever... all neat in an album called "Vacation to Disney 2011".
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In fewer words:

Can the iPad be used for reading ebooks, taking photos, taking notes, viewing stuff, web surfing, email, and gaming?
Yes!!!

Can the iPad be used for tasks other than these?
No.


Can a tablet with a filesystem substitute the need for computers?
Yes. Absolutely. And it's true as of today (but not with an iPad, for the reasons explained).

Your reasons do not hold water, and your boat is sinking. Making blanket statements like the clueless bold one above is a major leak! You really ready to sink with that ship? 1oyvey.gif

Check this out and see how just this one app uses Metadata, search, syncing on and offsite... etc. etc. Take that down to the far less needy office worker and tell me again why you can't be productive with an iPad.
YouTube presentation by Michael Cioni presents Todailies
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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