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Tablets predicted to surpass notebook PC shipments this year - Page 2

post #41 of 53

I just received Canalys report on the future of PC's and notebooks. Looks fairly in-line with the basic projections already posted in the AI article:

 

 

Canalys’ latest forecasts paint a bleak picture of the state of the industry for the majority of PC hardware vendors. Combined shipments of desktops, netbooks and notebooks showed a year-on-year decline of around 10% in the fourth quarter of 2012, as consumers favored Android and iOS pads over Wintel-based PCs. Microsoft and Intel will suffer further, with the Wintel PC market share expected to decline from 72% in 2012 to 65% in 2013. This will represent a 5% decline in unit shipments, largely due to the poor outlook for notebook sales. ‘Pads and, increasingly, smart phones can perform many of the day-to-day computing tasks that most people require,’ said Pin-Chen Tang, Canalys Research Analyst. ‘Wintel PCs are becoming less likely as an individual’s first choice of computing device for everyday tasks, such as sending e-mail or web browsing.’

‘The launch of Windows 8 did not reinvigorate the market in 2012, and is expected to have a negative effect as we move into 2013. Windows 8 is so different to previous versions that most consumers will be put off by the thought of having to learn a new OS,’ highlighted Canalys Research Analyst Tom Evans. ‘An additional barrier is the potential increase in cost that Windows 8 brings, as it is perceived that a PC with a touch-screen is needed to get the best user experience. In the current economic climate, this will be enough to make people delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall.’

‘The combination of Windows 8 and Ultrabooks has been the catalyst for notebook form-factor innovation, but what was becoming a routine purchase is now more complex,’ said Canalys Analyst Tim Coulling. ‘Now buyers must decide between an Ultrabook and a standard notebook, a touch-screen and a non-touch-screen, as well as an increasing array of form-factors, such as clamshell, convertible and hybrid. This added complexity will make purchases more considered and lengthen the sales process.’

Canalys predicts that from 2014 to 2016 the PC industry will see a shift in form-factor mix, as consumers in both mature and high-growth markets become interested in new PC designs based on touch-screens. Canalys expects the pad market will grow by 37% on average each year between 2012 and 2016, with volumes reaching 389 million units, accounting for 59% of total PC shipments. This growth will be driven by the iPad and iPad mini, low-cost, content-subsidized Android products, and Windows-based hybrid PCs (eg, Microsoft’s Surface Pro). The hybrid form-factor adds value to pads, enabling a greater level of productivity. This, combined with the expected improvements in Android and iOS, will further encourage the shift from notebooks to pads.

‘It is clear that Microsoft is now pushing touch as the primary input method for Windows, but keyboard and mouse are still needed for legacy applications,’ added Coulling. ‘Following the launch of the iPhone, the shift from keypad/keyboard to touch input on smart phones was rapid. The popularity of pads and the inevitable decline in touch-panel prices will cause the same trend to emerge in the PC market.’

melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #42 of 53
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

Tasks in real life aren't "app-centered", but "task-centered".

 

The natural way is to organize such memories by places, and not by "app". That's how people have always done things for centuries, long before computers existed.

 

And yet any time a mixing of genres of content in a "task" or "event", people do EXACTLY THIS, so it's just like your vaunted archaic methods.

 

Can the iPad be used for tasks other than these?

No.

 

BA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

 

Well, believe whatever you want to believe, I guess. Ignorance is bliss. 

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post #43 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

The trick is in the workflow and matching it realistically to the mobile tech we have now, with a keen eye to what we'll have available in a very short time.

 

The reason iOS isn't OSX is not that iOS is more powerful, nor more advanced, nor that OSX isn't "touch-ready" (which isn't the case), but that iOS is easier to play with it if you've never used a computer. If you read Steve Jobs quotes from the design of iOS, you'll notice they were targeting users that wanted a phone but without any computer knowledge.

 

So, please stop considering iOS as more powerful or more advanced than OSX because that's not the case. If you're a computer user, there's nothing that iOS can do that cannot be done on OSX, while there're a lot of things that you can do on OSX and just cannot be done on iOS.

 

I see it nonsense to think of "the mobile tech we have now" in just terms of the iPad. The mobile tech we have now can run Android (which has a filesystem), can run Linux (many lightweight tablets can run it), and can run OSX (the Macbook Air just weights slightly more than an iPad).

 

If your reasoning is that more powerful mobile tech equals stop having a filesystem, it's simply nonsense.

 

  

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc  View Post


Consider thinking outside the box before you absolutely have to to survive... or before it's too late! 1cool.gif

 

All my work is done in formats friendly with all Unices out there and I take care of choosing formats supported by multiplatform applications, so, yes, I've everything ready for going away from not only iOS, but also from OSX in case it also becomes an unusable OS, which looks quite likely. Everything was done on increasing quality from Tiger, to Leopard, to Snow Leopard, but after that it's been downhill.

 

Personally I'd prefer OSX to continue evolving as the most powerful OS, like it is now, but since Lion everything can happen. I'd prefer to continue using OSX forever, however I don't choose Apple because I love Apple, but because it's the best tool. If it stops being the best tool, I'll stop using it.

 

I'm not an iKiddie. I'm very critical with the technology I use. I applaud Apple when a product is awesome. But I criticize them when they make a mistake, and yes, they make a lot of mistakes. Replying to your advice, don't worry, I won't be in the boat when it sinks... if OSX becomes unusable, I would have moved already to another OS before the boat sinks.

 

OTOH, iKiddies will be on the boat when it sinks. People considering an Apple product is always awesome even when even Apple acknowledges it's wrong, people considering nobody should need a filesystem, and people considering 640K ought to be enough for anybody, will be on the boat when it sinks (note that "sinking" doesn't necessarily mean running out of business, but stop making tools that can be used).

post #44 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

[...]

Well, believe whatever you want to believe, I guess. Ignorance is bliss. 

 

Indeed, I warned Maps was not ready for launch, and all I got was bashing from iKiddies. Later facts proved me right. The same will happen with this "I wanna live without a filesystem because Apple cannot be wrong" fever.


Edited by ecs - 1/10/13 at 9:02am
post #45 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Ignorance is bliss. 

That idiom has always bothered me. Ignorant people seem to be the most cantankerous. I understand what is meant by that but I think in general people who are more educated have more likely to have fewer preconceived notions that lead to wrong conclusions.

Also, the phrase "great minds think alike" seems completely backwards. It's the common mind that thinks like everyone else or blindly accepts things as they are. It's the great minds that think in ways that no one else has ever thought of with the greatest of them all being able to change the way the rest of us perceive the world moving forward.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #46 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Is a 'Chrome Book' or whatever they are called classed as a Netbook?

The wikipedia page seems to be the best article on the subject of netbooks, and I think it fits the core concepts pretty well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook

I don't know if the category is viable anymore though, many of the anchor tenants have shrunk or abandoned their netbook offerings.
Edited by JeffDM - 1/10/13 at 9:28am
post #47 of 53
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
That idiom has always bothered me. Ignorant people seem to be the most cantankerous. I understand what is meant by that but I think in general people who are more educated have more likely to have fewer preconceived notions that lead to wrong conclusions.

Also, the phrase "great minds think alike" seems completely backwards. It's the common mind that thinks like everyone else or blindly accepts things as they are. It's the great minds that think in ways that no one else has ever thought of with the greatest of them all being able to change the way the rest of us perceive the world moving forward.

 

It's gems like this… I love it. 

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post #48 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

Indeed, I warned Maps was not ready for launch, and all I got was bashing from iKiddies. Later facts proved me right. The same will happen with this "I wanna live without a filesystem because Apple cannot be wrong" fever.

Oh really. Then please do explain why for many people Apple maps works better than Google's? Also... which one do you think has a better future? I'm not saying that Google is going to stop innovating any time soon either, but who benefits from all of this? Apple users!

Your remark regarding Mountain Lion going down hill: BS! It has the "lion's share" of all modern Apple OSes on the market with the fastest % of user upgrades on any platform...ever. Stable and speedy. What more do ya want for your legacy apps?

I also have clients that have to stay put a while longer on SL working with old formats and documents. So cliché...sorry... but today is not tomorrow and is not forever.

In a short 6 months time we'll know what's being readied for iOS7... or do you think Apple is finished now and Sir Jony is simply going to strip skewmorphism out and call it a day?

BTW: those other tablets with HDMI ports, USB, SD slots, etc.? They were/are a stop-gap differentiator that certain OEMs "thought" people wanted... kinda like Flash. The majority of people don't use them... the devices won't have 'em in 2 years... and we don't even need 'em now. I haven't plugged in some devices since iOS5 over a year ago. Just no need to at all.

I stand behind my prediction: iOS does NOT need a file system, nor will it ever see one. Manipulating files and/or file system on another device, absolutely. It does it very well today, so what's your problem?

I never said that OSX was going away... far from it. It is on OSX where the file system will reside, as with all servers based on Unix. Oh.... you do know that OSX has Apache/HTTP and FTP server tech built in, right? So imagine Apple takes it a step further and puts a gorgeous dead simple interface on it geared towards everyday consumers. Well hallelujah... we got ourselves a consumer home iCloud! A step further by having the ability to set it all up from an iPad/iPhone wirelessly... or if you so desire, an attached monitor, KB and mouse.

Guess how most people will interact with their data.... and just by sheer numbers alone, a safe bet: iOS and/or mobile devices. They will be the input/viewer window of choice for over 300 million users accessing their private as well as external clouds.

If it wasn't so painful, I would point you to the CES keynote. If you think Apple is alone in this vision or I'm just being difficult, think again.
Edited by ThePixelDoc - 1/10/13 at 10:38am
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #49 of 53
I dont's see that Apple is going to put a filesystem to iOs devices. I would like one, but that's probably not going to happen.
With a filesystem apple cannot control contents on these devices as good as they can now with all the syncing over itunes and stuff.
Apple is always playing it safe when it comes to 'openness'. A filesystem is opening the devices to all kinds of content or files. Apple doesn't want that.
I think it's the flash discussion all over again.
post #50 of 53
Originally Posted by changeover View Post
With a filesystem apple cannot control contents on these devices as good as they can now with all the syncing over itunes and stuff.

 

Sure they can. iOS has a filesystem right now, of course. And the user even has access to some of it. But having full access all the time, able to put anything anywhere from anywhere? That's just not needed. There'll be more and better control on our end of what we do see, but Apple will always be able to lock it down.

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post #51 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Oh really. Then please do explain why for many people Apple maps works better than Google's? Also... which one do you think has a better future? I'm not saying that Google is going to stop innovating any time soon either, but who benefits from all of this? Apple users!

Your remark regarding Mountain Lion going down hill: BS! It has the "lion's share" of all modern Apple OSes on the market with the fastest % of user upgrades on any platform...ever. Stable and speedy. What more do ya want for your legacy apps?

I also have clients that have to stay put a while longer on SL working with old formats and documents. So cliché...sorry... but today is not tomorrow and is not forever.

In a short 6 months time we'll know what's being readied for iOS7... or do you think Apple is finished now and Sir Jony is simply going to strip skewmorphism out and call it a day?

BTW: those other tablets with HDMI ports, USB, SD slots, etc.? They were/are a stop-gap differentiator that certain OEMs "thought" people wanted... kinda like Flash. The majority of people don't use them... the devices won't have 'em in 2 years... and we don't even need 'em now. I haven't plugged in some devices since iOS5 over a year ago. Just no need to at all.

I stand behind my prediction: iOS does NOT need a file system, nor will it ever see one. Manipulating files and/or file system on another device, absolutely. It does it very well today, so what's your problem?

I never said that OSX was going away... far from it. It is on OSX where the file system will reside, as with all servers based on Unix. Oh.... you do know that OSX has Apache/HTTP and FTP server tech built in, right? So imagine Apple takes it a step further and puts a gorgeous dead simple interface on it geared towards everyday consumers. Well hallelujah... we got ourselves a consumer home iCloud! A step further by having the ability to set it all up from an iPad/iPhone wirelessly... or if you so desire, an attached monitor, KB and mouse.

Guess how most people will interact with their data.... and just by sheer numbers alone, a safe bet: iOS and/or mobile devices. They will be the input/viewer window of choice for over 300 million users accessing their private as well as external clouds.

If it wasn't so painful, I would point you to the CES keynote. If you think Apple is alone in this vision or I'm just being difficult, think again.

First of all, I didn't criticize Mountain Lion, but Lion. I consider ML superior to Lion, but still worse than SL (in terms of usability). If ML had moved more in the direction of Lion, it's likely that I would have dropped OSX.

Second, no, there's no future for the coexistence of both OSX and iOS, it will be just one OS because personal computing will go 100% mobile, and the same goes for digital artists and every computing use except massive servers. And this OS will have an user-accessible filesystem, because we organize ourselves by topics, and not by document types. You organize your stuff by subject, and it's in your nature because an scent doesn't remember you of other scents, but of the events that happened when you smelled that scent in the past. It's our nature, and you won't change it no matter how revolutionary a new idea might be. So people will choose systems with direct access to filesystems. Maybe filesystems won't be exactly as we know them today, maybe there will be a more intuitive approach, but we need direct access to a filesystem for doing stuff in the way our human nature works. iOS is acceptable if you can also use OSX. But if you had to stop using OSX (as the move from PC to tablets suggests), you couldn't survive with just iOS, and the only reason is the lack of access to the filesystem.

Third, connectivity on iOS is very bad. Your dream of your custom cloud cannot happen within Apple products. They don't allow to use third party cloud systems directly from apps, and it's a marketing decision. The same you need to use a music store (iTunes) if you want USB file transfer. Apple is doing all of this with a very aggressive strategy. I criticized Microsoft a lot in the past for using this same strategy. You could set up your custom cloud with other OSs, but it won't happen with Apple products
Edited by ecs - 1/11/13 at 1:42am
post #52 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
But having full access all the time, able to put anything anywhere from anywhere? That's just not needed.


And if it is needed, there's an app for that. :)

post #53 of 53
Originally Posted by changeover View Post
And if it is needed, there's an app for that. :)

 

No, Apple blocks those.

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