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Apple's Jan. 23 earnings conference call viewed as most important in 10 years

post #1 of 88
Thread Starter 
Ahead of its holiday quarterly earnings report, Apple finds itself in a situation the company hasn't encountered in awhile: investor expectations for the next year are surprisingly low.

Barclays


With that in mind, Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays Capital believes Apple's earnings conference call on Jan. 23 will be the company's most important in the last decade.

Over the last three months, Apple's stock price has fallen by nearly 17 percent. One of the reasons is believed to be investor concern over Apple's continued growth potential and gross margins heading into calendar 2013.

Barclays


Barclays has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, as Reitzes believes that Apple faces lower expectations for its fiscal year 2013. He sees new product cycles from the company later this year helping to change investor sentiment.

In particular, Reitzes is a proponent of Apple building a low-end iPhone to address emerging markets like China. Recent reports have claimed that Apple plans to release such a device this year.

Barclays


While some investors are concerned that a low-cost iPhone would cut into Apple's margins, Reitzes doesn't share that sentiment. He also believes that other investors will change their tune if and when the product is built.

"We believe Apple can sell a phone with a more inexpensive casing for emerging markets and a (bill of materials) below $150, and believe concerns around margin dilution may be overdone, given the pending benefit to revenues," Reitzes wrote in a note to investors on Friday.

He believes that Apple is in a "peer group of U.S. disruptors" that also includes Google, Amazon and Facebook. Reitzes noted that Amazon and Google also saw large sell-offs in 2011, but those are a "distant memory" after both companies rebounded in 2012.

"Momentum can change quickly among the leaders in disruptive mobility ??along with sentiment," he said. "If Apple can prove yet again it is more than a handset company, then we believe shares can recover."
post #2 of 88
Please, no more about this mythical 'low cost iPhone'.
post #3 of 88
Typical hyperbolic BS... Analysts aren't worth the bandwidth they're given.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #4 of 88
Originally Posted by TinyAppleBytes 

I think this cheaper iPhone is in fact a future offering of Apple. Tim Cook has said that China will soon be their number one market, and in order to accomplish that, they will have to compete with mid and low end Android products on a grand scale.


I bet China is a big area of growth for BMW too, but I don't see them making a special "cheap" car for that market either. It would kind of defeat the purpose. The reason that people like Apple devices is that they can rely on a certain level of quality in everything they do (and that lends prestige to the brand, so people also buy the products because of this "prestige"). People are willing to pay extra for that guarantee, or the associated "brand prestige." If Apple started making cheap crap, they would lose this advantage. My sister had a Samsung Android phone, probably not one of the best ones, and she hated it so much that when I got her an iPhone for Christmas, she actually cried tears of joy. I think the best Samsung phones are probably pretty decent from what I can tell, but I doubt she'd get another Samsung anytime soon, just because her first experience with one was so bad. If her first Samsung was a Galaxy S3, maybe she'd be a repeat customer.

post #5 of 88

as an ex tiffany employee i can tell you  you don't get bargain at tiffany's for what you get.  you pay a premium for the blue box it is in, and your girl knows that you love her enough to simply throw your  money away. the product is top quality and perfectly crafted but you can buy a similar diamond anywhere but you dont get the box and the bragging rights for your best girl  . apple is in this league it as well as tiffany's has a cash'e that although there are lots of people in their market  they actually have no competition.

to ask either of them to wallow in the treadmill of commodity competition shows a person who does not understand branding  and tribal purchasing. Apple needs to keep focusing on that 75 % profit share of the market!

post #6 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Please, no more about this mythical 'low cost iPhone'.

Shiller already made that a moot statement.


But, I can tell you, judging from consistent past behavior, the iPhone 5 will eventually be a low cost phone, we just have to wait a year or two....... LOL...

 

If Apple gets on a 6 to 9 month refresh cycle with their phones, then we'll see these things dropping in price sooner after they release a replacement "flagship" product.

post #7 of 88

…most important in 10 years

 

WHY?!


investor expectations for the next year are surprisingly low.

 

That's because they're complete idiots.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply
post #8 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Typical hyperbolic BS... Analysts aren't worth the bandwidth they're given.

All analysts do is have spread sheets with certain data they monitor and they use their own internal gut feeling on what they feel Apple will do from quarter to quarter and project what they THINK the stock price is going to do based on past history, trend lines, etc. and they put their project growth rate (+ or -) and that's all they do.

 

Most professional analysts have a fairly large (many times 30 or even 40) companies they follow and report on, so they have basically about an hour a week that they can devote to studying the company.  Some spend more time on Apple because they are a higher profile company.

 

Some have been consistently wrong and underestimate or overestimate.  It would be nice if there was a sight devoted to covering the percentage of accuracty amongst the various market analysts, and stock analysts to figure out WHICH ones to listen to and which one's not to.

post #9 of 88
"If Apple can prove yet again it is more than a handset company..."

Yeah, if only... 1rolleyes.gif

Why do analysts get any credibility? These are the same people who said 6 years ago that Apple couldn't possibly compete in the mobile phone business because of how different it was from the PC and music player business. Now they have to prove that they are more than a handset company?
post #10 of 88

hahaha

post #11 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

WHY?!

 

That's because they're complete idiots.

Why?  The Dec quarter is the biggest, historically, for the year and it sets the tone for the remainder of the year.  It's tough for Apple to get a different sales cycle.  But it typically goes like this.

 

Dec quarter BIGGEST

March quarter 2nd biggest

June quarter 3rd biggest

Sept quarter 4th biggest

 

Now, their last Sept quarter wasn't as big as they originally thought and that kind of hurt Apple, even though it was larger than the previous year's Sept quarter, it wasn't as big as Apple original first projected.  Plus they had supply issues with certain products, iPhone 5 in the beginning, iPad mini cellular models, now it's the iMacs, which are selling well for that type of product.   Foxconn is building more assembly plants, but it takes time to build assembly plants as fast as they need them, plus the building of some products are a little difficult, then they have the supply of components because they've switching away from Samsung.

 

Does this help?

post #12 of 88

According to the first result on a real quick Google search, there are 6,973,738,433 + people on the planet. Don't blame me if that figure is inaccurate or not up to date, blame Google. A bunch of people probably got murdered while I was typing this post, but that's not my fault either.lol.gif

 

But who gives a shit really? It's not Apple's goal to sell as many phones as they can to every person on planet earth in every possible market, so why do certain people keep claiming that Apple has to release some crappy, cheap ass phone?

 

If there are too many compromises on a cheap product, then it would no longer be worthy of having the Apple logo on that device. And again, why does Apple need a few more customers who have no money? Where is the profit in cheap ass phones and where is the profit in cheap ass customers? I doubt that Apple will be receiving a cut of the monthly cell phone bills paid to the telecom companies. So what exactly does Apple gain from this?

 

Ever since Apple starting giving into the analysts and other douchebags, the stock has been going down. Nokia has been a much more profitable stock than Apple lately.

post #13 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyAppleBytes View Post

I think this cheaper iPhone is in fact a future offering of Apple. Tim Cook has said that China will soon be their number one market, and in order to accomplish that, they will have to compete with mid and low end Android products on a grand scale. 

 

See, this is the sort of "analyst thinking" that just get's its facts in a twist and comes up with a conclusion that has nothing to do with the statements made.

 

Apple doesn't need to have the greatest market share in, say, smartphones, in China for it to be their "number one market". They don't, "have to compete with mid and low end Android products on a grand scale." For it to be Apple's number one market, they have to make more profit there than anywhere else, which, roughly means selling more of their own stuff in China, than they do in any other single market. So, in essence, Apple's markets are competing against each other to determine which is number one. Android crap is completely irrelevant in that equation.

 

So, no, Apple does not have to offer a cheaper iPhone for China to become their number one market.                 

post #14 of 88

How far would the stock have to drop to make it possible for Apple to use its cash to take the company private? If AAPL got to a market cap near Google or Microsoft would that do it? Then we wouldn't have to listen to this insane crap from analysts. No more fiscal reports, no more sales and margins to argue over, publicly anyway.

post #15 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

How far would the stock have to drop to make it possible for Apple to use its cash to take the company private? If AAPL got to a market cap near Google or Microsoft would that do it? Then we wouldn't have to listen to this insane crap from analysts. No more fiscal reports, no more sales and margins to argue over, publicly anyway.

How would that benefit you?  Or Apple (since they don't have to "listen" to any of this)?  It's amateur investors who think that a company like Apple cares what its stock is doing.  Apple's employees come to work for their paycheck and that's it.  Only the very highest executives have large stakes in the stock.  The market and the analysts have nothing to do with the company's operations from day to day.

post #16 of 88

That kind of scenario could never happen.  All Apple can do is buy up some of it's outstanding shares in exchange for it's cash, but it would never be able to buy up all of the shares because for each share that they do buy, the remaining shares all gain a little value.  At some point, Apple would run out of enough cash to buy another share of the company.  But way before that, they would stop buying up shares because they need money on hand to actually run the business.

 

Another problem that you are overlooking is that companies have to be owned by something -- Apple can't own themselves.  Only people and/or other businesses can own them.  What single person or company do you think has enough money to own Apple outright?  That's right, there isn't one.

post #17 of 88

If Tim Cook was successful in signing on China Mobile, that will definitely be a big boon to Apple.  T-Mobile will obviously add some increase market share in the smartphone market, but China Mobile will be UUGE.

post #18 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

All analysts do is have spread sheets with certain data they monitor and they use their own internal gut feeling on what they feel Apple will do from quarter to quarter and project what they THINK the stock price is going to do based on past history, trend lines, etc. and they put their project growth rate (+ or -) and that's all they do.

 

Most professional analysts have a fairly large (many times 30 or even 40) companies they follow and report on, so they have basically about an hour a week that they can devote to studying the company.  Some spend more time on Apple because they are a higher profile company.

 

Some have been consistently wrong and underestimate or overestimate.  It would be nice if there was a sight devoted to covering the percentage of accuracty amongst the various market analysts, and stock analysts to figure out WHICH ones to listen to and which one's not to.


AnalystInsider, or AnalystAnalyst?

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #19 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
Nokia has been.

Fixed.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #20 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightknight View Post

Fixed.

That may be true, but I was just pointing out that since August 2012, Nokia has defeated Apple by 157%. I'm talking about their respective stocks of course.

post #21 of 88

I think everyone better stop looking at AAPL. The holiday quarter will be huge but these twits will be hanging on every letter in the forward statement. Any dirty bits and they'll all be screaming, "Apple is...."; well, you know the rest.

 

Be prepared for a short squeeze, though, right around the time that AAPL comes off its holiday quarter honeymoon. Cook is going to announce something huge, maybe 2 things and the stock will have its best week ever... hopefully followed by a slow rise upwards.
 

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #22 of 88
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
The market and the analysts have nothing to do with the company's operations from day to day.

 

Isn't that the opposite of what you were pitching earlier? Where you said that the market numbers (all the shorting and whatnot) are 1:1 related to Apple's real value?

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply
post #23 of 88
Wacky analysts.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #24 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileyDude View Post

"If Apple can prove yet again it is more than a handset company..."

Yeah, if only... 1rolleyes.gif

Why do analysts get any credibility? These are the same people who said 6 years ago that Apple couldn't possibly compete in the mobile phone business because of how different it was from the PC and music player business. Now they have to prove that they are more than a handset company?


these analysts also scoffed at the ipad and demanded Apple sell a cheap netbook. Thankfully Apple ignored those failed business people.

 

When the 5S is released, the 4 (with maybe a minor upgrade) will be sold off contract for $300.

post #25 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

All analysts do is have spread sheets with certain data they monitor and they use their own internal gut feeling on what they feel Apple will do from quarter to quarter and project what they THINK the stock price is going to do based on past history, trend lines, etc. and they put their project growth rate (+ or -) and that's all they do.

 

Most professional analysts have a fairly large (many times 30 or even 40) companies they follow and report on, so they have basically about an hour a week that they can devote to studying the company.  Some spend more time on Apple because they are a higher profile company.

 

Some have been consistently wrong and underestimate or overestimate.  It would be nice if there was a sight devoted to covering the percentage of accuracty amongst the various market analysts, and stock analysts to figure out WHICH ones to listen to and which one's not to.

 

Google Philip Elmer DeWitt. He actually tracks all the Apple analysts and bloggers and he's proven the so-called "pros" stink compared to a good many of the amateurs.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #26 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

If Tim Cook was successful in signing on China Mobile, that will definitely be a big boon to Apple.  T-Mobile will obviously add some increase market share in the smartphone market, but China Mobile will be UUGE.

 

I view China Mobile as gravy if Apple signs them up, but not earth-shattering if they don't. The problem as I see it is that China Mobile is Chinese government owned and may insist on technology transfer or a much higher cut of sales and ownership of customer information gathered in the App Store. IMO, Apple should make no special concessions to any country that would endanger their IP ownership or tilt the playing field in favor of the local provider.


Edited by SpamSandwich - 1/11/13 at 5:18pm

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #27 of 88

Funny how you never see the word "rumors" associated with these stories anymore. You used to.  Now they're called "Reports".

It's really f**kin sick.

post #28 of 88

Pretty simple: Apple won't meet ludicrous expectations based on zero fact or reason (not having iMacs for sale genuinely won't help), stock plummets despite record profits, yada yada yada.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply
post #29 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Isn't that the opposite of what you were pitching earlier? Where you said that the market numbers (all the shorting and whatnot) are 1:1 related to Apple's real value?

No.  Professional forum trolls should not talk finance with finance majors.  Uh oh... are you going to censor me again?  Big forum moderator/flamer ;)

post #30 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
Nokia has been a much more profitable stock than Apple lately.

 

Nokia stock fell from a high of $40 to $1.63. Now when it has gone up a little, it unfair to compare it to another stock and call it "profitable"

post #31 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post

 

Nokia stock fell from a high of $40 to $1.63. Now when it has gone up a little, it unfair to compare it to another stock and call it "profitable"

Only a true amateur investor and uneducated person would prefer Nokia to Apple stock despite the gain.  A real dummy.

post #32 of 88
Wow, it really fluctuated that much over the last year? You could have made a fortune if you'd guessed right.
post #33 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

How far would the stock have to drop to make it possible for Apple to use its cash to take the company private? If AAPL got to a market cap near Google or Microsoft would that do it? Then we wouldn't have to listen to this insane crap from analysts. No more fiscal reports, no more sales and margins to argue over, publicly anyway.

What would be the motivation?

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Pretty simple: Apple won't meet ludicrous expectations based on zero fact or reason (not having iMacs for sale genuinely won't help), stock plummets despite record profits, yada yada yada.

I'm not sure why you're worried about it unless you bought in higher. I noticed several management figures sold off large portions of their holdings. The capital  gains tax issues wouldn't have been enough to motivate that.

post #34 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Only a true amateur investor and uneducated person would prefer Nokia to Apple stock despite the gain.  A real dummy.

There is an argument to be made on betting against Nokia or trying a short term gain since the stock is low could be a smart and perhaps more profitable and stable bet than with Apple. Like in craps (the dice game) you can win on every role if you bet properly. If you have followed Nokia and how the public perceives them there is no reason not to be able to win by preferring a losing stock. I seem to recall there are plenty of people that bet against the housing market years ago.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #35 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post


I bet China is a big area of growth for BMW too, but I don't see them making a special "cheap" car for that market either. It would kind of defeat the purpose. The reason that people like Apple devices is that they can rely on a certain level of quality in everything they do (and that lends prestige to the brand, so people also buy the products because of this "prestige"). People are willing to pay extra for that guarantee, or the associated "brand prestige." If Apple started making cheap crap, they would lose this advantage. My sister had a Samsung Android phone, probably not one of the best ones, and she hated it so much that when I got her an iPhone for Christmas, she actually cried tears of joy. I think the best Samsung phones are probably pretty decent from what I can tell, but I doubt she'd get another Samsung anytime soon, just because her first experience with one was so bad. If her first Samsung was a Galaxy S3, maybe she'd be a repeat customer.

Oh stop the BMW Apple comparisons please. This has been beaten to death. Phones are not cars.

post #36 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

That may be true, but I was just pointing out that since August 2012, Nokia has defeated Apple by 157%. I'm talking about their respective stocks of course.

At $4.70 today, wow what a 157% gain.

 

Toes stop laughing.

 

Isn't Forbes great at spreading all the doomed stuffs about Apple.

post #37 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by patpatpat View Post

Oh stop the BMW Apple comparisons please. This has been beaten to death. Phones are not cars.

Don't you hate that.

 

iPhones are the premium of the smartphones just as BMWs are the premium of cars.

post #38 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamC View Post

Don't you hate that.

 

iPhones are the premium of the smartphones just as BMWs are the premium of cars.


Phones and cars cannot be compared. The cheap car manufacturers cant compete with BMW. When you have the money to buy a BMW, you buy a BMW (or some other premium brand) but in phones, people end up buying non-Apple devices for the same price as iPhone

post #39 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamC View Post

At $4.70 today, wow what a 157% gain.

 

Toes stop laughing.

 

Isn't Forbes great at spreading all the doomed stuffs about Apple.

What difference does the price of the stock make? A gain is a gain. I don't care if a stock costs $5 or $500.

 

If somebody buys 100k of Nokia or 100k of Apple, and they both were to rise 10%, you'll end up with 10k profit in both scenarios.

 

I'm not claiming that Nokia is a great or strong company at the moment, and I don't plan on buying any Nokia stock. In case anybody were to misunderstand, I'm not comparing Apple VS Nokia as companies, merely their recent stock action, and Apple's has sucked for a while now.

post #40 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post


I bet China is a big area of growth for BMW too, but I don't see them making a special "cheap" car for that market either. It would kind of defeat the purpose. The reason that people like Apple devices is that they can rely on a certain level of quality in everything they do (and that lends prestige to the brand, so people also buy the products because of this "prestige"). People are willing to pay extra for that guarantee, or the associated "brand prestige." If Apple started making cheap crap, they would lose this advantage. My sister had a Samsung Android phone, probably not one of the best ones, and she hated it so much that when I got her an iPhone for Christmas, she actually cried tears of joy. I think the best Samsung phones are probably pretty decent from what I can tell, but I doubt she'd get another Samsung anytime soon, just because her first experience with one was so bad. If her first Samsung was a Galaxy S3, maybe she'd be a repeat customer.


I live in china and I think and from what I see at work with the locals, you are on the money. Everyone here wants an Apple product, many are willing to spend the money for them even with the very high cost relative to salaries here.  [My parents both had the iPhone 3G, then they switched to androids on the advice of my brother (at the time they wanted to get back on verizon and there was no iPhone yet).  They hated them every day for two years, when they got new iPhones.  I asked them what the problem was, and they said the androids just didn't seem to make sense and they didn't know how to make them do stuff.]

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