Apple's Jan. 23 earnings conference call viewed as most important in 10 years - Page 2

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Originally Posted by drblank 

...

Now, their last Sept quarter wasn't as big as they originally thought and that kind of hurt Apple, even though it was larger than the previous year's Sept quarter, it wasn't as big as Apple original first projected. ...

This is completely wrong and an oft repeated mistake. The Sept quarter was much higher than Apple's projection but it wasn't as high as the analysts were dreaming. It wasn't Apple that missed but the analysts. Apple's guidance was an EPS of $7.05 which ended up being $8.67. The average analyst had worked themselves up to around $8.81. They overshot a little.

This was a quarter yearning for major product upgrades, especially the iPhone, but they still grew some 27% from the previous year. The December quarter is packed with major upgrades and a new iPad product. It will be a very important quarter for the analysts who will learn that Apple is still growing very fast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by extremeskater 

Facts do not matter when it comes to investing. Apple HAS TO HAVE exactly what the street wants it to have or the stock will drop. If you are making an investment based on facts you better pull your money and put it in a money market because Wall Street rarely runs on facts or logic.

Completely separate issue from China becoming Apple's #1 market. But, the day Apple starts running the company to please Wall St will be the day they begin to not matter any longer.

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Originally Posted by AdamC 

Don't you hate that.

 

iPhones are the premium of the smartphones just as BMWs are the premium of cars.

The number of people who can afford the BMW is a mere fraction of those who can afford an iphone or other smartphone of a similar price point. Your logic is simply irrational, as only one of those is a mass market product.

The Fourth angel said to me « umrk, if you want to know what the future will be, just watch the 726 Episodes of the 30 Seasons of Star Trek’s five Series since the beginning (Star Trek, Star Trek Next Generation, Star Trek : Voyager, Star Trek : Enterprise, Deep Space Nine). If you are attentive enough, you will know what all future Apple products will be (Combadge, iPad, holosuite, etc …). Things will happen exactly as described. However, do not try to match countries on the Earth with Star Trek’s characters (People from the Federation, Romulians, Cardassians, Bajorans, Ferengis, Vulcans, Klingons, etc …) : all assumptions you may make will prove to be false !

Be also informed that we added Rule N°286 to the Ferengis « Rules of acquisition ». This new rule states “if you want to make money, just buy Apple Shares”. Be nevertheless aware that this rule applies to Ferengis only. If you are not sure to be one, do whatever you please, it’s your money after all !”

He also said « be careful with the guy who « conducts his business with a pointed stick » (as Frank Zappa describes him), I think you know who I am talking about”

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Originally Posted by Apple ][ . In case anybody were to misunderstand, I'm not comparing Apple VS Nokia as companies, merely their recent stock action, and Apple's has sucked for a while now.

Our definitions of "a while" are clearly a little different.  Nobody can predict short term moves in any stock, but over the long run, stocks will tend to perform like the underlying company did.  In the last 12 months Apple rose from 420 to 520, a HUGE gain that is nearly double the historical average for stocks.  There was an irrational bubble in the middle of the year that was given back at the end of the year.

If you (you being anyone reading this, not just Apple ][) get too stressed out or don't understand the long run goal of stock ownership, then the smart thing to do is not follow the ticker but every few months to check in on your companies.  Ups and downs will happen, and they won't seem to make sense if you LOVE the company (as so many people here do).  You treat it like your kid - everything the company does you spin in your head in the best light.  Arrested for possession of alcohol at age 17?  Must have been that "bad friend" of theirs that caused it.  Posted on these forums have the same problem.  I was there in 1999 when Dell was the darling of the market too - you have posters who are amateur investors, bought the stock of their favorite computer maker and it went up 100% for 2 straight years.   Then the tide started turning and the stock stagnated, and these people were in denial for the next 5 years!

DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR STOCK, PEOPLE.

The only way you will ever make 50% per year for more than 1 year is if you get LUCKY, not if you follow the millions who already know Apple is a great story.   While next year might be excellent (I think it will be) because it follows a year where AAPL underperformed Apple Inc.  But that won't happen for years on end.  If you expect it to, it's time to sell now and try to find a stock more your speed.  Find a nice $1 stock that no one has heard about and hope that itd doubles instead of going to zero.

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Originally Posted by ascii 

Wow, it really fluctuated that much over the last year? You could have made a fortune if you'd guessed right.

operative word is guessed (although there is a retro flip phone movement in japan)

My bet is that Apple report the largest earnings in corporate history. Buy buy buy...

Bye.

I've seen several articles that say Apple should report the highest profits in corporate history this month..

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Originally Posted by Kevin Winsness 

Hopefully this earnings report will break the outrageous funk we have been stuck in for the last few months. We need to start trading back on the fundamentals.

There's no such thing as an "outrageous" funk that has only lasted for 6 months.  Nothing to do with a stock's movements in that amount of time can be described as outrageous.  That is especially true in this case.  I said it a few days ago - look at Apple's 5 year chart.  Draw a straight line from January 2009 to today and THEN tell me which part was outrageous - today, or 3 months ago.

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Originally Posted by monstrosity 

Please, no more about this mythical 'low cost iPhone'.

People were skeptical (and made similar disparaging comments) regarding the mythical 'iPad Mini'.

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Originally Posted by Retrogusto 

I bet China is a big area of growth for BMW too, but I don't see them making a special "cheap" car for that market either. It would kind of defeat the purpose. The reason that people like Apple devices is that they can rely on a certain level of quality in everything they do (and that lends prestige to the brand, so people also buy the products because of this "prestige"). People are willing to pay extra for that guarantee, or the associated "brand prestige." If Apple started making cheap crap, they would lose this advantage. My sister had a Samsung Android phone, probably not one of the best ones, and she hated it so much that when I got her an iPhone for Christmas, she actually cried tears of joy. I think the best Samsung phones are probably pretty decent from what I can tell, but I doubt she'd get another Samsung anytime soon, just because her first experience with one was so bad. If her first Samsung was a Galaxy S3, maybe she'd be a repeat customer.

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Originally Posted by AdamC 

Don't you hate that.

 

iPhones are the premium of the smartphones just as BMWs are the premium of cars.

Does BMW make more than one model?  Is one of their models "less expensive" ie cost less than the other model(s)?  Does that make it "cheaper"?  Answers:  yes, of course, and not necessarily.  Critics of a mythical 'iPhone mini' should open their minds (think different).  Just because Apple would never make a "cheap" iPhone does not mean they would never make an iPhone that cost less to manufacture and sell at a lower price.  They have a history of doing just that with the iPad (iPad Mini, the idea of which many people scoffed at) and the iPod touch before that.  The question is; is their any rational (financial) reason for doing so?.  I think so.  With just a small investment in time, effort and cost (relative to the perceived incremental benefit) apple could reengineer the iPhone 4(S) to make it thinner, lighter, power saving, and perhaps, most importantly, less costly to not only manufacture but also to package and ship.  Doing so would not necessarily tarnish Apples image, just as producing a smaller BMW (and selling it a lower price) does not tarnish their image.  Furthermore, the lower costs would allow Apple to offer it a lower price which would increase the market for them without cutting into their margins.

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Originally Posted by iMax1 

People were skeptical (and made similar disparaging comments) regarding the mythical 'iPad Mini'.

Yes they were, but I was not one of them. 

OK, let me rephrase my point of view:

A larger or same size (as is currently doing the rumour rounds) specifically designed cheap iPhone aint gonna happen.

A smaller and cheaper iPhone is more likely. But I seriously doubt it will be throwaway cheap because Apple simply don't care for that end of the market.

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Originally Posted by Gatorguy 

I've seen several articles that say Apple should report the highest profits in corporate history this month..

Where are you reading this? The only articles I read are chock full manipulation trying to beat AAPL down! The internet is swamped by them. I have never seen such a desperate attempt in all my years of watching AAPL. Some of it is really quite comical.

Check out these idiots...

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/01/nokia-corporation-adr-nysenok-beating-apple-inc-aapl-big-time/

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/01/apple-inc-aapl-50-price-target-analysis/

Damn, there was an amazing one I read this morning but I can't seem to find it right this second. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by monstrosity 

Where are you reading this? The only articles I read are chock full manipulation trying to beat AAPL down! The internet is swamped by them. I have never seen such a desperate attempt in all my years of watching AAPL. Some of it is really quite comical.

 

Check out these idiots...

 

Damn, there was an amazing one I read this morning but I can't seem to find it right this second. 

Factual reporting will report that Apple is expected to report record profits.  If you read partisan stock advice you'll get whatever the writer wants to say. The writer of those posts you linked (by the way, why would you link them?   You realize the poster is just trying to ring up views) would not argue that Apple is expected to report record results this quarter.  You shouldn't be surprised that people try to trumpet information that supports their world view.  It happens here every day, just on the positive, instead of the negative like in the posts you linked.

But because of the general negativity surrounding Apple there is a lot of room for upside for the stock after earnings if they dispel some of the negativity.  For me it will require information showing that production of the new iPhone and iMac have not in fact been as difficult as it seems, and that the reason for the extended stock-outs has been demand, not lack of supply.  I have a hard time believing that is true with regard to the iMac.  The iPhone, however, I think will surprise solidly to the upside.

Contrary to what the blind homers around here will tell you, Apple doesn't have to astound the market on all fronts to go up.  It's all about expectations.  While they have been high in the past (that's how you get to $700, duh), they are not high right now.  It will be much easier than in the past to drive the stock to higher levels this month.

Originally Posted by cameronj 

…Apple doesn't have to astound the market on all fronts to go up.  It's all about expectations. It will be much easier than in the past to drive the stock to higher levels this month.

You mind if we hold you to that?

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

You mind if we hold you to that?

You know if you look at their past behavior, they've shown steady growth, yet the stock has always faltered after shooting way up, sometimes significantly. You saw the same thing when it was around $450. I wouldn't worry about its daily behavior if you aren't being forced to eat losses.

Originally Posted by hmm 
You know if you look at their past behavior, they've shown steady growth, yet the stock has always faltered after shooting way up, sometimes significantly. You saw the same thing when it was around $450. I wouldn't worry about its daily behavior if you aren't being forced to eat losses.

Oh, sure; you're absolutely right about that. But he did mention a month's timeframe, which for Apple is virtually "day trading". 

Quote:

Originally Posted by hmm 

You know if you look at their past behavior, they've shown steady growth, yet the stock has always faltered after shooting way up, sometimes significantly. You saw the same thing when it was around $450. I wouldn't worry about its daily behavior if you aren't being forced to eat losses.

Your definition of always is a little shaky.

Tell me how a stock gets from 80 to 700 in 5 years despite going down most of the time?  Weird, huh?  I thought only global administrators were this confused about the market ;)

Edit:  I think i misunderstood your first sentence.  If you were actually saying that Apple, like all stocks, will grow steadily along with earnings and tend to correct downward after sharp rises, then I agree with you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

Oh, sure; you're absolutely right about that. But he did mention a month's timeframe, which for Apple is virtually "day trading". 

That is a fairly short term purchase. He was referring to the conference call, and the stock typically doesn't remain static around that time.

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Originally Posted by cameronj 

 

Edit:  I think i misunderstood your first sentence.  If you were actually saying that Apple, like all stocks, will grow steadily along with earnings and tend to correct downward after sharp rises, then I agree with you.

That would be correct, although you worded it better. My anecdote was referring to when the stock first hit around $450 then dropped back into the $3xx range. They've still grown over the longer term. If you look at the company over the past decade, it's worth much more today, even adjusted for inflation.

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Originally Posted by hmm 

That would be correct, although you worded it better. My anecdote was referring to when the stock first hit around $450 then dropped back into the $3xx range. They've still grown over the longer term. If you look at the company over the past decade, it's worth much more today, even adjusted for inflation.

Yep.  People around here would have you believe that Apple does nothing but go down.  Amazing how a company can be the most valuable in the world without ever going up in chunks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

Yep.  People around here would have you believe that Apple does nothing but go down.  Amazing how a company can be the most valuable in the world without ever going up in chunks!

I've never posted anything like that, although I've stated if the stock is lower than they purchased it, they don't necessarily have to lock in a loss, given the past long term performance of the stock.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

Factual reporting will report that Apple is expected to report record profits.  If you read partisan stock advice you'll get whatever the writer wants to say. The writer of those posts you linked (by the way, why would you link them?  

I was linking them for fun. Read my post. 

Actually, for trading, I find it is very useful reading the bullshit articles. I day trade, and if you learn to read between to lines, you can use the bullshit to your advantage. I don't really need to read the 'factual' reporting, because I know damn well where this stock is headed, and do not need anyone else's explanation to confirm what I already know. 

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 
Hold him to what? In the quoted text he made no fixed statement that the stock will go up this month, only that it will be easier which is not the same as it is guaranteed as his comment leaves plenty of room for other circumstances to work against it.

He's assuming that it will go up based on the "reduced expectations" this time around. I figure they'll do marginally better than everyone is assuming and still go down, but that's making the assumption that they'll actually do better than expected. 

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 
Based on the comment you quoted "will be easier" is not the same as "will go up."

You're right; I was operating under the assumption that Apple will outperform expectations. I apologize for not making that clearer. I built in an artificial condition that was not fully explained because I thought it would be assumed.

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Originally Posted by iMax1 

People were skeptical (and made similar disparaging comments) regarding the mythical 'iPad Mini'.

God, I wish people would learn how to validly reason by analogy.

Simply because people were skeptical about something that succeeded does not mean that everything people are skeptical about will succeed. You can't point to one instance as similar unless you establish that it is, and these two situations are absolutely not similar.

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Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


I don't think that bet is reasonable. He's clearly very active in working to keep the forum tidy for our use. If you don't agree with his points then disagree with him (just as I did today). I don't see him deleting my posts because I think his point is incorrect. BTW, we all misunderstand things all the time so I don't think a site administrator should be treated any differently.

Well, he deleted my post that you replied to.  No infraction cited, simply post removed without a trace.

My post from last night was rewarded with a 10,000 day demerit point (god knows what that means, since they don't tell you how many you have to earn to be banned).

I'm not asking him to stop working to "keep the forum tidy" for our use.  I'm asking him to stop posting and I will do the same, depending on who wins.  Why is that not reasonable?  How many other administrators both participate in flame wars and punish those who he disagrees with with forum punishments?

They're all waiting for that god damn Apple TV announcement.

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 
Wow! That was fast!

What character is that? It returns zero results in Bing.

Oh, it's just a big hyphen. Weird; it still shows up big in the field, even though the formatting is supposed to be stripped.

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Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


Hmm... lets see if that works:

I think Tallest Skil is a complete ███████████ whose mother would ████████████████████ out the of a goat's ██████████ with a ██████.
Edited by Tallest Skil - Today at 2:53 pm
.

The gestapo around here prefers disappearing posts to redacting them.  ;)

Cmon Mr Admin.  New bet - because I know you couldn't stand to stop posting.  I win the bet (terms still to be determined) you put me on your ignore list.  If something I say needs to be disappeared, it will have to be a REAL administrator doing it, not just an addicted poster masquerading as one.  You win the bet, I go dark for a month.  What do you say?

TRY not to disappear this post.  There are NO personal attacks in here, much as I do love them.