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WSJ: Apple cuts iPhone 5 component orders in half due to weak demand - Page 2

post #41 of 85

Don't be naive. This news are exactly the same as the 2 people lines in China stores. Absurd.

WS has a plan to have the stock just over $500 until end of week, which is the Open Interest for Jan18 options. Furthermore, since there is high interest both in 500 calls and puts (larger in the last one, that's why the price will end over 500), they need to create fear these days in order that the call owners liquidate their positions before opex. 
What can be better than news coming from Japan, in a holiday day, without anybody to corroborate the truth of this?

Regarding the numbers: How do you match WS growth estimates (under 10%), when, at the same time, they were estimating a production for Q2/13 that is over a 100% higher than Q2/12 (keep in mind that this news is just about iphone5, you have to add iphone 4S/4 to the figures).

If any, this info should be seen as a good one: the most probable reason for a production cutoff (at those numbers, it means reducing stock of lcd's for following Q's), is that Apple is going to change the screen technology to IGZMO, or update the phone soon. Most probably, of course, is both, erasing the weak Q's in earnings. This means that a growth of at least 20% would be almost assured, without counting the huge demand for ipad mini or an eventual iTV.

Three trading days later of the opex, at Earning day, the pros will "discover" how wrong their estimates were, and the stock will jump impressively. Of course, they will be fully loaded with shares very cheaply bought. These are the same guys that at september planned that they have to unload apple not to be overweighted in their portfolios; that the moment was those months, since an increase in taxes would come; but prior to that, they wrote huge amounts of calls for january leaps. The same ones they now are running worthless. So they sold shares at $700; earned $150-200 in writing calls, and now will load again at $500, to get the same $700 where they started this show in a couple of months, at most.

The thing that irritates me is that Apple itself does nothing to clean this mud. Which is why i'm wondering if this was planned since a long time ago. No surprise then that almost all of the execs sold their stock prior to this.

 
post #42 of 85
Market manipulation. I wish I had money to by more Apple at these levels.
post #43 of 85
People...... what part of AFTER CHRISTMAS.... does everyone NOT understand.

All sales drop after christmas. So a decrease in orders makes sense. Now how much and why is what we need to hear on Jan 23.


Just a thought.
en
post #44 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Still amazes me that people claim there's no manipulation going on with this stock. iPhone 5 has only been out for 4 months or so and just recently supply has started to catch up to demand. Yet we're supposed to believe that Apple is cutting component orders due to weak sales? 1rolleyes.gif

I love this article from The Street: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11811629/1/if-ithe-wsji-is-wrong-about-weak-iphone-5-demand-will-it-apologize-to-apple.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

I agree this is quite possibly manipulation, and that even if this story isn't, that many others are. 

 

Yet I wonder -- what exactly should the SEC do, if anything, about this kind of stuff? It's one thing for a company, or employees of a company, to say knowingly false things in order to manipulate the stock price for their own advantage -- I think permitting that kind of behavior would undermine the entire market system of allocating capital. But I think there's a case to be made that people who trade stocks based on a story in one of Rupert Murdoch's tabloids deserve what they get. 

post #45 of 85

The problem is not just Apple cut their supply. It also Samsung already pass 100M units of Galaxy S smart phone.

Even Apply has larger margin per unit, if entire sales goes down profit will shrink.

 

Also if China deal is done then Apple don't need to cut their supply. Why would they?

China deal is not done.

post #46 of 85

 

BusinessInsider is at about the same level as DigiTimes as far as credibility goes.

post #47 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilM View Post

 

BusinessInsider is at about the same level as DigiTimes as far as credibility goes.

 

Yeah -- the same credibility level as a Rupert Murdoch tabloid.

post #48 of 85
Same bullshit last year
post #49 of 85
"It's working....stock is down 5% on Frankfurt market." Just losing the gains it made of recent.
post #50 of 85
Complete bull$hit. Guaranteed.
post #51 of 85

I guarantee the WSJ (and you) are COMPLETELY wrong on this. It's going to be yet another record iPhone sales quarter. Count on it. 

post #52 of 85
Can you say "stock manipulation"? Release a report that suggests problems at Apple, buy low, wait for Apple's upcoming quarterly report (which of course, will be good), watch the stock climb again, then sell your stock for a tidy profit. %u2026 Wall Street doing what it does best! There should be an SEC investigation into these obvious scams, but don't hold your breath!
post #53 of 85
This article is self contradicting. It says "weak demand", this despite it taking Apple from Sept. to mid Dec. to catch up to demand. Mid December would seem to be the peak time to have product available for Xmas. If stock was not available at that time would the article have been about strong demand or a weak supply chain? Ramped production would be in place until supplies caught demand and inventory could be established. At that point the ramped up production could be curtailed. How long the ramped up production would be needed would not be known, the market would tell them eventually. Other rumors indicate a reduced product cycle for updates, suggesting a new model is in the works. A report on Jan. 3 http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1519215 suggests an upgrade to the retina display is in the works. Tim Cook's strength is reported to be supply chain management and several new suppliers and expanded assembly capacity have resulted. If the iPhone 5 takes the place of the iPhone 4S when a new iPhone is released, how many would be needed to fill that role? Could it be half of the demand of a new iPhone 6? According to http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-iphone-6-rumors-indicate-tests-ios-7-new-device-are-under-way-according-developer-logs-988812 , dated Jan. 2, testing of both a new phone and ios are under way. The short time between iPad updates suggest that Apple may be planning to shorten times between updates and grow organically by shortening the time between demand surges experienced at release times. This makes more sense than experiencing lulls due to purchase delays by customers waiting for the next model. Cheaper phones would reduce margins. My money is on faster upgrade cycles, with more profit, not cheaper phones with less. An interview with Schiller of Apple in China http://thenextweb.com/apple/2013/01/10/apples-schiller-says-that-despite-the-popularity-of-cheap-smartphones-they-will-not-be-the-future-of-apples-products/ was reported by WSJ as proof Apple was going for cheaper phones. The update in that article now notes that Reuters has withdrawn the piece due to translation errors and the amended translation changed the whole tone. To quote the article "So, at this point it appears that the newspaper may have taken some liberties with its quotes of Schiller%u2019s interview." I guess we may know more after Apple's quarterly report later this month, but I wouldn't bet on it. Secrecy and conservative forecasts are the norm for Apple. It is the media that create the volatility. I find it odd that the only component specified is the Retina Display and vague other components are alluded to. Rumors exist anywhere there is secrecy. Speculation is just that, when the truth is unknown.
post #54 of 85
What does it mean " weaker than expected " ? Expected by who ? The toilet cleaner ? Or your grand mum ?
post #55 of 85
Only 9 more days until the earnings report shut these analysts up.
post #56 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider 
It is unclear what exactly is to blame for the reduction but ongoing rumors point to the possible introduction of a cheaper model to the iPhone line sometime in 2013.

No reason for that rumour to be ongoing:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155400/phil-schiller-says-apple-would-never-make-a-cheap-iphone

The reduction seems to stem from them ordering too many:

http://bgr.com/2013/01/14/iphone-5-analysis-component-cuts-291307/

If they manage to sell over 32m iPhone 5s in Q2 2013, that's almost as many as the total iPhones sold in Q2 2012. If the earnings report backs up lower demand ok but if not, it's time to start calling out the sources who report this.
post #57 of 85
Apple loves making people think they will zig, and then they zag!
post #58 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post

What does it mean " weaker than expected " ? Expected by who ? The toilet cleaner ? Or your grand mum ?


Toilet cleaner. My grand is mum on the subject.

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post #59 of 85
Sweet. Time to buy more stock and make more money. Thanks, WSJ!!!

MacBook Pro 15" 2.8 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 8GB DDR3 SDRAM, 750GB HDD
Mac mini 2.26 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 8GB DDR3 SDRAM, 500GB HDD
iPhone 5S, 32GB

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MacBook Pro 15" 2.8 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 8GB DDR3 SDRAM, 750GB HDD
Mac mini 2.26 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 8GB DDR3 SDRAM, 500GB HDD
iPhone 5S, 32GB

Reply
post #60 of 85
Originally Posted by ascii View Post
Market saturation?

 

You can always always ALWAYS tell a post is absolute crap if MacRulez gives it a +1.

 
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Still amazes me that people claim there's no manipulation going on with this stock.

 

And yet they do, violently insulting all who oppose them. lol.gif

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply
post #61 of 85
"Cut orders by half" compared to what? And is this being interpreted as "cancelled" orders ("cutting orders" implies that Apple had ordered, say, a million of something then revised and "cut" the order to only half a million)? Or is it simply revising next-quarter purchasing downward?

Reduced FROM holiday quarter component purchasing levels? Sure, possibly%u2026 ramping down for a product refresh (or new model addition) as well? Possibly.

But "weak demand"? My absolute LAST conclusion when Apple makes supply adjustments%u2026

When, at any time in its history has iPhone (or any iDevice for that matter, aside from the VERY slow decline of the iPod) experienced "weak demand"?

I think I know what this is (and it's odd to me that no-one else has mentioned it). It's a craven, almost blatant market manipulation just ahead of Apple's quarterly financial report.

Someone just made - or is about to make - a lot of money from that nonsense "analyst report."

When they want to make a big buy on Apple, just release a "report" that Apple has suddenly cut their sales projections in half due to "weak demand". The stock will surely drop precipitously, creating the perfect buying opportunity!!! But we'll see counterbalancing reports%u2026 some as blatant as "Oops! No, no, everything's fine after all!"

And yet another blowout, record quarter about to be announced, this time, exceeding expectations, and the stock will rally wildly%u2026 whoever bought when the stock dipped briefly below $500 is going to be very happy ten days from now.

Especially the people who are creating these wild mood swings%u2026

The SEC should be watching the stock portfolios attached to these 'analysts'%u2026 I call criminal manipulation on this one...
post #62 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lerxt View Post

Could it also be that in Asia everyone is moving to Samsung phones? I see it every day, it's rare to see iPhones in Hong Kong nowdays.

 

That's kind of a bald faced "fact manipulation" right there… I was in HK recently. iPhones everywhere. Are you being disingenuous here, or just "seeing selectively"?

 

And HK is not "Asia". It's one city in a vast region known as Asia, each with its own demographic trends, etc… what happens in HK isn't necessarily happening in Tokyo or Singapore or Shanghai...

 

Huh. Do you work for Samsung by any chance? Your comment fits their general ad campaign strategy pretty well...

post #63 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

If they manage to sell over 32m iPhone 5s in Q2 2013, that's almost as many as the total iPhones sold in Q2 2012. If the earnings report backs up lower demand ok but if not, it's time to start calling out the sources who report this.

 

Of course, just being equal to last year would be considered a poor showing.   Apple is expected to greatly increase sales YOY, just like Samsung.

 

(PS.  Actually, 32 million would be the same amount of iPhones sold to end users in 2FQ 2012.   Informed financial followers know that Apple does NOT just report end user sales, as a popular but ignorant internet myth claims.  Apple's sales figures also include wholesales to retailers and carriers.  For that quarter, Apple reported 35 million sales.   However, it turned out later there were almost three million more retailer sell-ins than end user sell-throughs.   Retailers had been shipped (sold) too much inventory.  Tim Cook admitted this in the next quarter's earnings call. Same thing happened with iPads later on.)

 

"And so what that did was, it increased sell in over sell through by 2.6 million units" - Tim Cook, 3FQ12 earnings call, explaining much lower than expected 4S sales.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

5) Jobs forbade the iPad mini? Where is your proof? There is evidence to suggest it was Jobs idea and the fact that it came out a year after Jobs passed away strongly indicates that it was a working product in their labs while Jobs was alive.

 

You're right, Jobs didn't forbid it, but he didn't think of it either.

 

We know from documents revealed in court that it was Eddie Cue, then Apple SVP for Internet Experiences, who talked Apple into doing a 7" tablet, after Cue used a small screen Samsung Tab for a while and found out that it was nowhere near as bad as Jobs had claimed:

 


Edited by KDarling - 1/14/13 at 9:41am
post #64 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

You're right, Jobs didn't forbid it, but he didn't think of it either.

We know from documents revealed in court that it was Eddie Cue, then Apple SVP for Internet Experiences, who talked Apple into doing a 7" tablet, after Cue used a small screen Samsung Tab for a while and found out that it was nowhere near as bad as Jobs had claimed:



I wouldn't call the iPad mini a 7" tablet. It's closer to 8" than the original iPad is as close to 10" and we don't call it the 9" iPad. The iPad mini's display is about 40% larger than those 7" tablets. That makes it much better for many tasks. The quote we have from Jobs is that the current lot of 7" tablets are DOA. He was right.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #65 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I wouldn't call the iPad mini a 7" tablet. It's closer to 8" ...

 

Agreed.   I was repeating what Cue called the form factor when he referenced a "7 inch market."

post #66 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I wouldn't call the iPad mini a 7" tablet. It's closer to 8" than the original iPad is as close to 10" and we don't call it the 9" iPad. The iPad mini's display is about 40% larger than those 7" tablets. That makes it much better for many tasks. The quote we have from Jobs is that the current lot of 7" tablets are DOA. He was right.

It certainly is simplistic. By screen area, iPad mini would be equivalent to a larger than 8" Android tablet. Mini doesn't feel cramped like all of the 7" tablets I've tried.
post #67 of 85

Repeating and fabricating this kind of nonsense combined with the introduction of moderators and the new (ad infested) format makes an end to my visits to this site.

Last post.

 

J. 

post #68 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


It certainly is simplistic. By screen area, iPad mini would be equivalent to a larger than 8" Android tablet. Mini doesn't feel cramped like all of the 7" tablets I've tried.

 

 

indeed.  I also think the mini is the best small tablet out there, but you do pay more for it.

post #69 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

It certainly is simplistic. By screen area, iPad mini would be equivalent to a larger than 8" Android tablet. Mini doesn't feel cramped like all of the 7" tablets I've tried.

I feel less cramped on the 6" Kindle Paperwhite (which I love) than I do when playing with 7" Android tablets. I think it's because of the 16:9 aspect ratio which makes it ideal for viewing 16:9 video and hardly anything else. reading text in anything else just feels wrong in either landscape or portrait.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #70 of 85

Did trusted journalism die with the typewriter?

post #71 of 85

And how does the WSJ 'feel' about Dell being in talks to take their company private? This news just broke.

 

http://bgr.com/2013/01/14/dell-rumor-private-company-291572/

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/14/3876110/dell-in-talks-to-take-company-private-says-bloomberg

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #72 of 85
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
And how does the WSJ 'feel' about Dell being in talks to take their company private? This news just broke.

 

http://bgr.com/2013/01/14/dell-rumor-private-company-291572/

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/14/3876110/dell-in-talks-to-take-company-private-says-bloomberg

 

But… how will Apple ever buy it, shut it down, and give the money back to the shareholders now?!

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply
post #73 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling 
Of course, just being equal to last year would be considered a poor showing.

They'd be around equal if they didn't sell any iPhone 4 and 4S models. Even half of 65 million is around last year's total for just the iPhone 5 model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling 
Apple is expected to greatly increase sales YOY, just like Samsung.

You mean just like Samsung reports.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling 
Informed financial followers know that Apple does NOT just report end user sales, as a popular but ignorant internet myth claims. Apple reported 35 million sales.   However, it turned out later there were almost three
 million more retailer sell-ins than end user sell-throughs.   
Retailers had been shipped (sold) too much inventory.  

It balanced out the following quarter:

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/24/apple-reports-results-for-q3-2012-8-8-billion-profit-on-35-billion-in-revenue/

2.6m more one quarter, 3m less the next. You're right though they do report sell-in, not sell-through. Both numbers just happen to not be out by a factor of 10 like Samsung.
post #74 of 85

I think Apple needs to constantly get Tim Cook to make publicity statements that are covered better to contain the rumor of a cheaper phone.


Did Apple say orders were cut in half?  Who were these SOURCES?

post #75 of 85
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
I think Apple needs to constantly get Tim Cook to make publicity statements that are covered better to contain the rumor of a cheaper phone.

 

Why? Schiller said it. It was covered. End of story.

 

…SOURCES?

 

Does… not… compute!

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
Reply
post #76 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by hedgeland View Post

I guarantee the WSJ (and you) are COMPLETELY wrong on this. It's going to be yet another record iPhone sales quarter. Count on it. 

I know Dec 12 will be a record quarter, but from the sounds of it, they are talking about this quarter. 

 

Let's look at a year ago.

 

I have in my spreadsheet

Dec 2011 at 37 Mil units.

March 2012 at 35 Mil units.

June 2012 at 26 Mil units

Sept 2012 at 21.9 Mil units

 

This fiscal year, I have 

Dec 2012 at 50 Mil, but that is just a projected.  It may be more or less.  Now I've read that some are projecting 65 Mil units, so if i put down 65 for Dec 12, and 37 for March, then it sounds like they'll still do more than last year, but not as much as people want/projected.  Obviously, T Mobile will bring new customers.  The thing is that Apple needs to get China Mobile on line which is not giving Apple huge year to year sales increase like some hoped for.

 

Either way, we have to wait about a week for the final Dec 12 numbers and to find out reality for the March quarter.

post #77 of 85

weird. . .

 

Where's this post??

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

5) Jobs forbade the iPad mini? Where is your proof? There is evidence to suggest it was Jobs idea and the fact that it came out a year after Jobs passed away strongly indicates that it was a working product in their labs while Jobs was alive.
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #78 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

I know Dec 12 will be a record quarter, but from the sounds of it, they are talking about this quarter. 

 

Let's look at a year ago.

 

I have in my spreadsheet

Dec 2011 at 37 Mil units.

March 2012 at 35 Mil units.

June 2012 at 26 Mil units

Sept 2012 at 21.9 Mil units

 

This fiscal year, I have 

Dec 2012 at 50 Mil, but that is just a projected.  It may be more or less.  Now I've read that some are projecting 65 Mil units, so if i put down 65 for Dec 12, and 37 for March, then it sounds like they'll still do more than last year, but not as much as people want/projected.  Obviously, T Mobile will bring new customers.  The thing is that Apple needs to get China Mobile on line which is not giving Apple huge year to year sales increase like some hoped for.

 

Either way, we have to wait about a week for the final Dec 12 numbers and to find out reality for the March quarter.

Without China Mobile iPhone sales and growth is stagnating. It's not shrinking but there's just not much room to grow.

post #79 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

weird. . .

 

Where's this post??

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

5) Jobs forbade the iPad mini? Where is your proof? There is evidence to suggest it was Jobs idea and the fact that it came out a year after Jobs passed away strongly indicates that it was a working product in their labs while Jobs was alive.

 

It was put into the garburator because it just happened to be connected to a piece of rancid food.

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post #80 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

I think Apple needs to constantly get Tim Cook to make publicity statements that are covered better to contain the rumor of a cheaper phone.


Did Apple say orders were cut in half?  Who were these SOURCES?

I think Cook has more important things to do.
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