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WSJ: Apple cuts iPhone 5 component orders in half due to weak demand - Page 3

post #81 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

Without China Mobile iPhone sales and growth is stagnating. It's not shrinking but there's just not much room to grow.

Let's say you're right. Let's take the worst case plausible scenario and say that Apple's profits are flat for the next few years.

So why is the forward P/E below 9 (low 7s after adjusting for cash) when the market as a whole is twice that - and the market as a whole is growing only a couple percent a year?
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #82 of 85
Tim Cook is an expert in supply chain management. The launch of the iPhone 5 initiated in September was massive. Over 30 countries in one week and over 100 before Xmas. A significant ramp in production. In fact so huge, that online stock wasn't available until mid-December. If stock was not available online at that point what would the headlines read? Would it be about strong demand or suspected production issues? How long do you maintain that level of ramped production? The answer is until demand slows enough to finally slow down. That time has come. The speculation of low-end iPhones is just that. When they have about half of the US revenue and 70+% of the industry profit why would they go to the low profit end of the spectrum? The ipad 4 launch suggests another strategy. Every product refresh equals a surge in sales. More frequent refreshes should reduce the tendency of a pre-launch lull in sales. With ramp capacity increased, the machinery is now in place for them to enjoy more frequent surges in sales. Retention will be the Android issue. AT&T have already confirmed that Apple retention is incredible. I see it in my family. Loyal Samsung users who gave Apple a try and at this point never plan to return. If iOS was available as open source, Android would be like a floppy disk, a thing of the past. Customer retention and a growing customer base is how Apple grew over the years. Many of the current buyers are existing customers going for a product refresh as their contracts expire. I see that more and more mobile phone providers are adding the iPhone to their wish list. Japan's largest mobile operator is losing subscribers because it isn't on board, yet, but is in the news saying they want a deal. T Mobile are now on board. China Mobile could provide a massive catalyst with about 700 million subscribers. This has nothing to do with China Mobile as they would need a different chipset for their mobile network. The main point is that whenever there is secrecy there will be rumors and speculation. I put this article in that category. The drawdown on other components comment appears unsourced since the stated companies are display suppliers. WSJ carried a Schiller story concerning cheap iPhones that Reuters has now pulled and an updated version puts that scenario in doubt. I wouldn't count on the quarterly report giving much clarity. I expect good numbers but conservative guidance, as usual and cards still close to the vest. Margins should be stable unless there was a massive run on iPads.
post #83 of 85

Once again, they are just making this **** up as they go.  The numbers obviously don't add up;  any editor worth his or her salt would have had those "facts", at the very least, independently researched before going to "press" with a story like this.  The real travesty is that anyone pays enough attention to the once-mighty WSJ to quote this tripe.

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post #84 of 85

Apple is about to announce the zoomPhone, price of $0 and margin of 100%; it will run WinPhone 8, upgrade to WinPhone 9, and download 'apps' from the Microsoft PlayStore.

 

Cheers

post #85 of 85
Originally Posted by minicapt View Post
…upgrade to…

 

And just like that, it's already outperforming every Windows Phone device out there right now.

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