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Rumors of reduced iPhone 5 orders briefly send Apple shares below $500 - Page 2

post #41 of 75
I've seen this happen before. December 28, 2007 AAPL closed at 199.83. By February 22, 2008, AAPL closed at $119.46. This is a 41.3% drop in less than two months.

AAPL is manipulated intentionally - no doubt. This article in WSJ was definitely a contract hit on AAPL. SEC really needs to be investigating articles like this. I'm loaded on AAPL shares (probably more than I should be), and I can tell you that (the first time I had witnessed such a sharp drop in my portfolio) in early 2008 I was scared. But I stuck around and did well over the following years, continuing to buy AAPL. So, this is just one of those times when AAPL goes on sale before it takes off again. I would not be saying this now, but I have seen this happen many times since I started investing in AAPL in 2007.

It looks scary every time, and those who cannot stand the heat, sell at a loss, and the shrewd ones scoop up those shares at a discount and profit tremendously. So, I'm not worried this time, but Apple does need to innovate more - iOS is a fine product, but without innovation, competitors are going to build a product that is at least as good or even better. I'm hoping this year is going to be revolutionary (not evolutionary) for Apple.
Edited by sirozha - 1/14/13 at 10:47am
post #42 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post

The same bullshit happened last year about iPhone 4S weak demand and Apple cut the parts order .

 

 

They are trying to get maximum F.U.D. for opex. 

 

Now that being said, Apple is still decelerating pretty heavily.  The iphone 4 sold twice the number of phones as the 3gs, the iphone 4s sold twice the number of phones the 4, but the iphone 5 is expected to barely sell 20% more than the 4s. Thats one hell of a drop on "growth".

 

We will see the real number at earnings, but even if they beat 50 millions, keep in mind they launch in many more countries for the first quarter of the iphone sales, and this include China. To give you an example , to keep the same paste Apple needs to sell over 80 millions iphones.

 

My estimates are for 48 millions phones with all the new countries included.

 

On the bright side I see 25 millions ipads, mostly due by the huge succes of the mini but counter by severe  drop in sales of the regular ipad. Apple should had sold 25 millions big ipads this year, but without the mini I think they would had barely made last year numbers of 17 millions. With the mini, I think they sold about 15 millions 10" ipads and about 10 millions ipad mini, for a total of 25 millions.

post #43 of 75

if memory serves me correctly, this happened before,  a rumor came out based on supply firms having orders temporariliy cut, only to be informed later that this is quite normal fluctuation in the supply lines due to the fact that components at the foxcon factory assemby lines were stockpiled to  meet demand. It later came out that the rumor mill knew this and that the traders latching on to the data knew it too, but were using the knowledge to scare investors into dumping so they can buy at lower prices. This is quite normal behavoir at wall street. NO NEWS HER

post #44 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

What would they do?

This is an actual representation of the true value of Apple at any one time¡ There's nothing going on here except standard trading¡

That is absolutely false.

The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.

It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.
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post #45 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That is absolutely false.

The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.

It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.

 

http://appleinsider.com/articles/10/11/23/apple_analysts_under_sec_investigation_for_channel_checks.html

post #46 of 75
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
That is absolutely false.

The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.

It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.

 

Good. For a second I was starting to believe what he told me. Thanks!

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #47 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That is absolutely false.

The SEC can investigate and punish people for manipulation of stock prices. So if it turns out that someone is intentionally manipulating stock value, it could be a felony.

It won't be easy to prove, but your claim that there's nothing here but standard trading is just plain false.

He was being sarcastic. Notice the upside-down exclamation points.

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post #48 of 75
Investors nowadays are lemmings. No sense of the value of a stock, no eye on long term growth; it's all about playing games with stock bubbles.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #49 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That's nonsense. Apple sales ALWAYS drop after Christmas ....

 

Not iPhones. Not for the last three years, at least.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg

post #50 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Not iPhones. Not for the last three years, at least.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg

You're reading it wrong.

Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions

2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703

2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793

2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752

2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650

2012
Q1 37.044
Q2 35,100

Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.
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post #51 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Not iPhones. Not for the last three years, at least.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg

But add a recent launch just before the quarter started and you'll end up with lower sales the following quarter.
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post #52 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets has maintained his price target of $1,111.
Thanks to remind us how this "Brian White of Topeka Capital" was out of touch and on the fringe...
post #53 of 75
Of course it is obviously stock manipulation.
Of course nothing is going to happen. The reason for this is that the manipulators (big banks, hedge funds, insurance companies etc) are the ones who own the government and so have basically got a license to do whatever they want. Mom and Pop investors get their lunch eaten. Nothing new here.
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post #54 of 75

The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge. 

 

When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality. 

 

So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.

 

 

 

 

 

 

iMac 27" 2.93ghz i7 MacBook Air 13" iphone4 ipod classic AppleTV 

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iMac 27" 2.93ghz i7 MacBook Air 13" iphone4 ipod classic AppleTV 

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post #55 of 75

I think you are missing the big picture here.  Everybody does not upgrade on the month of a new version of a phone. There is a staggered number of phones due for upgrade every month.  If Apple does not produce an updated phone every 6 months then a well timed upgrade like the SGIII can take market share away for over 3 or 4 months until the next refresh comes along. Apple does not want to be selling year old tech when they can update on a more regular basis.  There are trade offs involved. The new phone will be an evolutionary improvement not a big step up like in the past.  Apple can respond to Samsung just like they are responding to Apple.  

 

As far as the drop in orders, I am not at all clear on whether this rumor is substantive.  If the order change is a real reflection of Apples revised expectation there are several possibilities:  China mobile does not want the iPhone 5, or wants an option for a less expensive iPhone,  The problems producing the iMac may be causing a drop in orders if this is screens in general rather than just the iPhone5.  Demand may be dropping for the Apple display since knock off displays with the 27 inch screens are making it into the market.  Apple may have over estimated demand for the iPhone 5, or a switch from the Samsung displays maybe slowed by quality control issues.  IPad sales 4 could be lower because of the iPad mini which uses a much lower quality display.  The Retina macbook may be having a slow down in sales waiting for the Haswell update.  This list is endless and that is the point.

 

All of the above is speculation, not facts.  We will get facts from the conference call.  Until then the stock is vulnerable to rumors because the amount of money at stake is so damn large.  Apple is 15% of the nasdaq 100.  A $3 billion swing in sales which is relatively small given the total quarterly profits Apple makes (approx 10-15 billion in Q1) would have an outsized effect on Apple's stock price.  A company which makes 10 Billion in one quarter may see its stock drop by another 30%.  There are a lot of people who have already made a lot of money on Apple and see no reason not to take profits before the conference call.  When 25 million shares are traded in one day only 3% of the companies shares have traded hands.  It would be interesting to see what percentage of Apple's shares are held over the long term.  Short term investors could only hold 10% of the company and still determine the direction of the stock.  Over the long term earnings will always solve this problem if there is growth in income.  Which brings us back to the coming earnings announcement.  If it shows that Apple has been doing quite well, I would think that an investigation of this type of rumor would definitely be in order.

post #56 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by morgajx View Post

The iphone 5 is just not that a great phone. I think the 4S is a better looking and I found worked better IMO. The sleek lines and chamfered edges of the 5 is so prone to chipping, a case is a requirement. I am on my third. The first was a dud due to the touch screen, the second a chip on the edge. 

 

When you look at the nexus 4 in comparison or the Sammy they are I hate to say it cheaper and have better functionality. 

 

So when the earnings call comes it will be interesting to revisit this topic and see if the WSJ was correct.

 

There is no Android device that can match the User Experience of an Apple device. 

 

There's a lot more to Apple domination of consumer satisfaction (for every single iPhone that has ever existed) than a bullet-list of features. As for this "decreased iPhone 5 demand" nonsense, I don't buy it. Not after What Apple's been doing in the rest of the mobile space with the iPad. And certainly not in light of the continued strength of Apple's mindshare. Why would anything change with the iPhone 5? It wouldn't, because the iPhone 5 is best iPhone Apple has ever made. In fact, the experience - with all the enhancements, is markedly different from the 4 and 4S. After using the 5, I couldn't go back. 

 

As for the look of the iPhone 5, it's easily the most elegant on the market. 

post #57 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


You're reading it wrong.

Christmas is in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quart is Jan-Mar. All numbers in millions

2008
Q1 2.351
Q2 1.703

2009
Q1 4,363
Q2 3,793

2010
Q1 8,737
Q2 8,752

2011
Q1 16,240
Q2 18,650

2012
Q1 37.044 14 WEEK QUARTER
Q2 35,100

Most years, the sales dropped significantly from Q1 to Q2. The exceptions were when they had new product introductions in Q1 - which isn't the case this year so isn't really applicable.

 

No. I am not reading anything wrong.

I repeat. "Last three years"

post #58 of 75

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:24pm
post #59 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Yep, if there's anything fund managers hate it's making money. :\

 

 

I was talking about them writing the calls, not owning them.

 

 

Quote:

Writing a naked call is an options strategy that has significant risks since the stock might move upwards. By its nature, writing a naked call is a bearish strategy that aims for a profit by collecting only the option premium. Due to the risks involved, most investors hedge their bets by protecting some of their downside with stock or other call options (at higher strike prices).

 
post #60 of 75

Ok, but why did Google stock drop 2.26% ?

post #61 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen View Post

Ok, but why did Google stock drop 2.26% ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

No. I am not reading anything wrong.
I repeat. "Last three years"

And you're missing the point.

In the past 3 years, sales were flat one year. Down significantly the second year. And up the year that Apple launched a new iPhone in the 2nd quarter. (and, even the year that was flat was misleading because Apple opened up new markets for the iPhone in that quarter with pent-up demand).

In the two previous years, they were down significantly (which is pretty much standard for every consumer product.

So, in years that Apple didn't release a new product, or open a product to new markets, sales were down every time - just like virtually every consumer product in the world.

Logically, then, since Apple isn't expected to introduce a new product, a decline in sales is what would be expected.
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post #62 of 75

$486...mmm...

post #63 of 75

The market reached a high.  Google reached a high, and Apple reached a high a while back.  Let's see, investors are in it to make money.  Buy low, wait till stock rises, sell high, rinse repeat.  Apple made alot of people alot of money, so alot of people sold for profit.  I don't know what you people don't understand. 

 

Stock movements and prices are often based on expectations vs reality.  If Apple is expected to sell 65 million iPhones in a quarter and only sells 50 million, investors will sell, even if 50 million is a huge year on year increase....
 

post #64 of 75

By the way, Dell has been up quite a bit, as has RIM.  You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers... 
 

post #65 of 75
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
By the way, Dell has been up quite a bit, as has RIM.  You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers... 

 

When we make jokes like this, we tend to use quotation marks, the sarcasm punctuation or "/s". 


Take your pick.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #66 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

When we make jokes like this, we tend to use quotation marks, the sarcasm punctuation or "/s". 


Take your pick.

 

You mean how RIM has doubled their share price since September?  That's no joke...  Or how Dell is up 50% since November, and 15% in the last 2 days? 

post #67 of 75
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
You mean how RIM has doubled their share price since September?  That's no joke...  Or how Dell is up 50% since November, and 15% in the last 2 days? 

 

So you honestly think that either of these companies are good buys. Dell, which is going private, and RIM, which has no product, no plans, and no future. Really?

 

 

Yeah, they doubled their share price, all right. From ~0 to ~2x0.

 

If you're doing some insider trading, I can see being able to take advantage of day-long boosts to stock, but otherwise those two gravy trains are being dumped into the sea.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #68 of 75

horrible lie intended to manipulate the stock to be lower. Likely a hedge investors' plot. Or someone that wants to buy really low Or competitor. We need that ER on jan. 23 to show everyone. I say; thanks to the mini ipad; there should be huge sales growth.

post #69 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

So you honestly think that either of these companies are good buys. Dell, which is going private, and RIM, which has no product, no plans, and no future. Really?

 

 

Yeah, they doubled their share price, all right. From ~0 to ~2x0.

 

If you're doing some insider trading, I can see being able to take advantage of day-long boosts to stock, but otherwise those two gravy trains are being dumped into the sea.

 

Dell was obviously a buy a few months ago.  RIM I did buy a few months ago, then dumped.  No I don't think either have a future.  But that's not the point. 

post #70 of 75
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
No I don't think either have a future.  But that's not the point. 
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
You guys should take note why that is, and maybe in the future

 

So what IS the point?


adjust your stock trading strategy to be more than bandwagon jumpers

 

Because this sounds exactly like what you're trying to get people to do.

 

"They don't have a future, so jump on the bandwagon now and make a little on this temporary windfall."

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #71 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

 

So what IS the point?

 

Because this sounds exactly like what you're trying to get people to do.

 

"They don't have a future, so jump on the bandwagon now and make a little on this temporary windfall."


The point is to think about valuation, and how current valuation reflects past and expected performance, and how the stock price moves according to expectations relative to valuation. 

 

Nokia went down to 2 dollars because everyone expected them to go bankrupt.  Which they may or may not.  Apple was once in this position too.  Lumia sales are better than expected (expectations were very low).  Now people are thinking that maybe Nokia does have a future.  Hence the share price rise recently. 

 

Research in Motion was also expected to go bankrupt.  Preliminary reports are that the BB10 experience is not only better than expected, but perhaps on par with Android and Apple, and carriers are going to be pushing them.  Hence the share price double. 

 

When Apple was nearly bankrupt, started their recovery, and starting introducing new products, it was much the same situation.  And no doubt people who bought Apple at 20 made a hell of a lot more money than those who bought at 300, 400, 700, etc...  And I'm sure all the PC crowd were telling those Apple investors that they're throwing away their money at a has-been who had no future. 

 

Investing is not about what's hot right now (Apple, Google).  It's about identifying situations where the valuation is such that there is more potential to make money than to lose money.

 

If you want to become more sophisticated, you also need to look at what we call 'technical' indicators.  Thinks like RSI, SMA, EMA, and a slew of other statistical indicators that track buying/selling.  These don't give the whole picture, but they increase your understanding of the basic supply/demand dynamics of the stock market. 

 

If you're in it for profit, then it's all about maximizing your percentage gains over a specific time period.  In which case you need to look for compelling risk/reward scenarios, and analyze the market and various indicators to find a good time to buy in, then sell at a good time.  I'm not a daytrader, but I've pulled in 5+% in a lucky day trade, and routinely can make 5-20% in a few weeks on a trade.  I'm not perfect, I lose too, but I win more. 

 

Anyhow, with regards to Apple, momentum is against them right now, I'd hold until earnings, and depending on valuation leading up to earnings, possibly make a bet beforehand.  Whether or not you agree with Apple's current stock price movement, there are rational reasons to explain it, without the usual cry of manipulation and rumours... 

post #72 of 75
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

…carriers are going to be pushing them.

 

Good luck with that at this point.


It's about identifying situations where the valuation is such that there is more potential to make money than to lose money.

 

Yes, which is why I'm still absolutely baffled at your backing of these two companies.


Whether or not you agree with Apple's current stock price movement, there are rational reasons to explain it, without the usual cry of manipulation and rumours... 

 

Sure (my apprehension at that should be palpable).

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #73 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Yes, which is why I'm still absolutely baffled at your backing of these two companies.

 

 

 

You don't seem to understand that buying a stock does not have anything to do with backing a company. 

 

There are some investment banks who specialize in buying bankrupt companies, simply because they can buy those companies' assets for less than they are worth, since the market value is so depressed.  Think of badly performing companies and their stock in those terms. 

 

Maybe a more simple example.  Let's say I want to buy a restaurant.  I can buy a successful restaurant for 1 million that does a million in sales every year, or I can buy a failing restaurant for 30 thousand.  If I can turn around that failing restaurant into something that does 1 million in sales, then when I sell it, I'm making alot more money than I would have made buying the successful restaurant.  The risk is increased, but the reward is greatly increased, and if you know how to navigate those risky waters, you'll make alot more money.  And something restaurant specific - the restaurant business is tough.  A 10% drop in the value of the successful restaurant is a bigger loss than the failure of the poor one in my example...

 

Anyhow, maybe you should take a finance course or something one of these days, or try to expand your understanding of investing.  Company success does not equal share price increase. 

post #74 of 75
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
You don't seem to understand that buying a stock does not have anything to do with backing a company. 

 

Just short-term windfalls and earnings. Either you buy a stock to hang onto it for long-term gains, "backing the company", or you buy a stock because it's going to make you money in the short-term, meaning "bandwagon".

 

If you're into it for the pickup after bankruptcy, do share holdings often translate favorably to amounts of stock of whatever more successful company picked it up? Genuine lack of knowledge here. 

 

Do you really think that any amount of money can save RIM? Money can't buy ideas.


Company success does not equal share price increase. 


Amen. Apple's working proof of that.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #75 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Just short-term windfalls and earnings. Either you buy a stock to hang onto it for long-term gains, "backing the company", or you buy a stock because it's going to make you money in the short-term, meaning "bandwagon".

 

If you're into it for the pickup after bankruptcy, do share holdings often translate favorably to amounts of stock of whatever more successful company picked it up? Genuine lack of knowledge here. 

 

Do you really think that any amount of money can save RIM? Money can't buy ideas.

 

"Bandwagon" investing is basically employing a momentum strategy without the good sense to sell when the market moves against your trade.  In other words, investing in a hot stock merely because it's hot, without understanding why. 

 

Short term investing is "trading", has nothing to do with what specific strategy you employ.  I've personally been successful with both contrarian and momentum strategies, my ideal timeline is 1 week to 6 months. 

 

Buying into bankrupt companies can net you some significant earnings, but unless it's something you know well, can be very risky.  I don't do it, but used it to illustrate a point. 

 

As for RIM, you're right in that no amount of money can translate into ideas.  If anyone thinks RIM has a future, it's because they still have a large user base, great enterprise tools, and they still do some things very well.  I think RIM still has some great ideas left in them, but I also think alot of their issues were related to misunderstanding what the casual user wanted.  These days I no longer have money in them (I was happy with my short-term trade), as I'm happier with my other investments. 

 

I also notice Apple is up 4% today.  Just the market being the market, I guess sub 500 is a nice price for alot of traders.  Anyhow, I know you're a big Apple fan, I wouldn't worry about Apple's future, but as an investor, there are more enticing stocks out there. 

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