Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
So what IS the point?
Because this sounds exactly like what you're trying to get people to do.
"They don't have a future, so jump on the bandwagon now and make a little on this temporary windfall."
The point is to think about valuation, and how current valuation reflects past and expected performance, and how the stock price moves according to expectations relative to valuation.
Nokia went down to 2 dollars because everyone expected them to go bankrupt. Which they may or may not. Apple was once in this position too. Lumia sales are better than expected (expectations were very low). Now people are thinking that maybe Nokia does have a future. Hence the share price rise recently.
Research in Motion was also expected to go bankrupt. Preliminary reports are that the BB10 experience is not only better than expected, but perhaps on par with Android and Apple, and carriers are going to be pushing them. Hence the share price double.
When Apple was nearly bankrupt, started their recovery, and starting introducing new products, it was much the same situation. And no doubt people who bought Apple at 20 made a hell of a lot more money than those who bought at 300, 400, 700, etc... And I'm sure all the PC crowd were telling those Apple investors that they're throwing away their money at a has-been who had no future.
Investing is not about what's hot right now (Apple, Google). It's about identifying situations where the valuation is such that there is more potential to make money than to lose money.
If you want to become more sophisticated, you also need to look at what we call 'technical' indicators. Thinks like RSI, SMA, EMA, and a slew of other statistical indicators that track buying/selling. These don't give the whole picture, but they increase your understanding of the basic supply/demand dynamics of the stock market.
If you're in it for profit, then it's all about maximizing your percentage gains over a specific time period. In which case you need to look for compelling risk/reward scenarios, and analyze the market and various indicators to find a good time to buy in, then sell at a good time. I'm not a daytrader, but I've pulled in 5+% in a lucky day trade, and routinely can make 5-20% in a few weeks on a trade. I'm not perfect, I lose too, but I win more.
Anyhow, with regards to Apple, momentum is against them right now, I'd hold until earnings, and depending on valuation leading up to earnings, possibly make a bet beforehand. Whether or not you agree with Apple's current stock price movement, there are rational reasons to explain it, without the usual cry of manipulation and rumours...