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iPhone 5 order cuts dismissed as 'not news,' simply 'noise'

post #1 of 94
Thread Starter 
Wall Street analysts are dismissing recent concerns over iPhone build plans, with one market watcher saying the order cuts could instead be a sign that Apple seeing improved component yields and product margins.

Apple stock took a hit on Friday after reports surfaced claiming that the company had made significant cuts to iPhone 5 orders. Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan responded on Monday and said the reports are just "more noise" that will fuel an investor overreaction.

Instead, Moskowitz believes the order cuts could mean that iPhone 5 manufacturing yields ? and thus, gross margins for the product ? are improving.

iPhone 5


"In our view, the potential order cuts are a direct result of manufacturing yields improving following the fast-and-furious product roll-outs of the iPhone 5 as well as new iPads and Macs," he said.

If product component yields are in fact improving, Apple could instead be pulling back on what Moskowitz said would be "excess orders" of certain components. At launch, the iPhone 5 was plagued with a number of production issues that are believed to have cut into Apple's margins and limited supply of the company's latest handset.

Maynard Um, senior analyst with Wells Fargo, also said on Monday that he's not fazed by the rumored iPhone 5 cuts, which were publicized by The Wall Street Journal. Any such cuts, if true, are "not news," he said.

One report from Japan's Nikkei claimed that Apple had initially planned to order about 65 million screens in the March quarter before trimming those plans. But Um believes that number is "unrealistic," and may be inaccurate.

"The likelihood that Apple would have shipped 65 million iPhone 5s for the March quarter would have been minuscule, in our opinion," he said.

Um has forecast for Apple to sell 43 million iPhones in the March quarter, a number he still believes is "achievable" in light of the latest rumors.
post #2 of 94

"Wall Street Journal to continue being a trusted news source, despite lying through their teeth."

"The worldwide manhunt for common sense continues; three dollar reward not seen as very enticing."

 

Yeah, there sure aren't any people who short Apple stock; it's all legitimate trades, representing the real value of the company at any one time¡

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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post #3 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

"Wall Street Journal to continue being a trusted news source, despite lying through their teeth."

"The worldwide manhunt for common sense continues; three dollar reward not seen as very enticing."

 

Yeah, there sure aren't any people who short Apple stock; it's all legitimate trades, representing the real value of the company at any one time¡

 

It's ironic they got as much press for this report after just reporting blatant lies and false assumptions about a $99 iPhone.

post #4 of 94
For its next trick, WSJ will print nude photos of, and also hack email and voicemail accounts belonging to various Apple executives.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #5 of 94

not sure I agree with the component yield reasoning. If Apple need 1m panels they order 1m panels. They don't order 2m in the hope that they get 1m working ones. Yield is the problem of the OEM.

post #6 of 94

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:24pm
post #7 of 94
As usual there are a number of Funds whose interests align with a reduction in Apple's share price before earnings - these stories always appear around this time to be disproved by blowout earnings later.
post #8 of 94

The media and analysts create false problem, the media and analysts destroy false problem... Meanwhile, who benefits? The media and analysts... 1mad.gif

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #9 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

not sure I agree with the component yield reasoning. If Apple need 1m panels they order 1m panels. They don't order 2m in the hope that they get 1m working ones. Yield is the problem of the OEM.
It is a trick in the supply chain management to get manufacturers to invest in capacity. Since they were using multiple suppliers, they likely cut out the OEMs with the highest cost and/or lowest quality.
post #10 of 94
Wait, so it's not iPhone demand falling off a cliff? The WSJ said someone who they can't name told them so...
post #11 of 94

The stock drop in Apple over the last few months is a market correction nothing more, nothing less....

 

It grew a little too fast and will now start growing at a more realistic rate once the panic subsides....

post #12 of 94

Wow I'm really learning a lot reading the news about Apple lately lol.

 

AT$T sold a record number of iPhone, but they didn't sell **** because Samsung sold way more.

 

Apple's Mac sales declined and they grew by 5% last quarter.

 

Kindle Fires had way more online presence than iPads, but iPad Minis sold record numbers.

 

Ipad Minis cannibalized everything Apple sells and also they didn't cannibalize anything. 

 

Apple is going to make a cheap phone but they're not going to make a cheap phone.  

 

Teens say Apple is done.  And Apple is sold out of products around the world.

 

China bought tons of Iphones but Apple got hammered by Samsung in China.

 

And Apple is, as always doomed.

 

But it's a buy with a target price of $1,100, $700, $600, $500, $400 and $250 all at the same time.  

 

Got it.

post #13 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Wow I'm really learning a lot reading the news about Apple lately lol.

 

AT$T sold a record number of iPhone, but they didn't sell **** because Samsung sold way more.

 

Apple's Mac sales declined and they grew by 5% last quarter.

 

Kindle Fires had way more online presence than iPads, but iPad Minis sold record numbers.

 

Ipad Minis cannibalized everything Apple sells and also they didn't cannibalize anything. 

 

Apple is going to make a cheap phone but they're not going to make a cheap phone.  

 

Teens say Apple is done.  And Apple is sold out of products around the world.

 

China bought tons of Iphones but Apple got hammered by Samsung in China.

 

And Apple is, as always doomed.

 

But it's a buy with a target price of $1,100, $700, $600, $500, $400 and $250 all at the same time.  

 

Got it.

 

You forgot,

 

Android tablets now have 50% of the market, but no one uses them without changing their user agent string to look like an iPad

post #14 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Anyone else enjoying the irony of AppleInsider reporting that AppleInsider's reporting is just "noise"?

Maybe it's time for some human intervention with the copybot to raise the signal/noise ratio.

 

No, you are missing the point. It's the WSJ that is being shamed here, though not enough—yet.

AI was correct to report the WSJ's story straight, except their original headline was a little naive.
post #15 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

not sure I agree with the component yield reasoning. If Apple need 1m panels they order 1m panels. They don't order 2m in the hope that they get 1m working ones. Yield is the problem of the OEM.

From his point of view, they were trying to stock extra to make up for the back-order so they could push more volume as parts became available for their backorder while trying to fulfill new orders. Now that they are leveling off on production, i.e. figured out more efficient ways to produce the products in-time, they can back off stock orders and focus more on in-time orders..

 

Basically they are now leveling off to in-time order processing as you envision it above.

 

Makes sense to me. They (analysts) even predicted parts orders would level off/drop in december when Apple's lead times started drop to 1-2 days. So I'm left wondering why WSJ even reported this other than to try to drum up more rumor & conjecture to impact stock prices?

post #16 of 94
The stock market today is full of blatent market manipulation, especially tech stocks. Apple has become a favorite play due to the huge rumor mill about it and the ease of planting/hyping rumors that get wide coverage and resulting quick price moves at very substantial volume - with an average 21 million shares traded per day, many short term buyers no doubt. it's "in play."

whereas MS price has stayed nearly flat for some years in spite of its very large volume of about 55 millions shares traded per day. obviously these are insititutional investors.

but of course the biggest scam stock hype of this era is Amazon. with an absurdly high price based on its hyped supposed future prospects that are impossible to connect logically or mathematically with its current business operations. and drawn from an average of just 3 million shares traded per day - because that is all the suckers that can be found!

and the tech industry's focus on - and vulnerability to - stock prices is of course a reflection of its crazy "hit a jackpot" mentality. as if. it's a fool's game.
post #17 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Wow I'm really learning a lot reading the news about Apple lately lol.

AT$T sold a record number of iPhone, but they didn't sell **** because Samsung sold way more.

Apple's Mac sales declined and they grew by 5% last quarter.

Kindle Fires had way more online presence than iPads, but iPad Minis sold record numbers.

Ipad Minis cannibalized everything Apple sells and also they didn't cannibalize anything. 

Apple is going to make a cheap phone but they're not going to make a cheap phone.  

Teens say Apple is done.  And Apple is sold out of products around the world.

China bought tons of Iphones but Apple got hammered by Samsung in China.

And Apple is, as always doomed.

But it's a buy with a target price of $1,100, $700, $600, $500, $400 and $250 all at the same time.  

Got it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

You forgot,

Android tablets now have 50% of the market, but no one uses them without changing their user agent string to look like an iPad

There is no longer any need for any discussion of apple anywhere on the internets, these posts obsolete all others.
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post #18 of 94

Instead of a paywall at WSJ to read their drivel they should have a WePayYouWall and pay people to read their fiction.  Sad to see journalism so bad in the USA.  Even sadder that WSJ was an American company last I checked.  When was it favorable to back Samsung over a US based corporation? WSJ patriotism?  Not much.  It would be one thing if they actually reported facts (or anything of value).  But making crap up is pretty slimey. 

post #19 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

You forgot,

Android tablets now have 50% of the market, but no one uses them without changing their user agent string to look like an iPad

And....

Android tablets now have 50% of the market... but none of the manufacturers have ever given any hard sales numbers.

We get fuzzy numbers from Google saying "1.3 million Android devices were activated daily, and of those, 70,000 were tablets."

That's over 6 million new Android tablets hooking into Google every quarter. We'll have to take their work for it... since there's no way to verify that.

So why don't the manufacturers step up and claim their share of the market?
post #20 of 94

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:24pm
post #21 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

For its next trick, WSJ will print nude photos of, and also hack email and voicemail accounts belonging to various Apple executives.

 

Old Joke:

 

1st guy:  "Do you have any nude pictures of your wife for sale?"

 

2nd guy:  "Are you crazy? I respect my wife! The answer is no -- I'd never sell nude pictures of my wife!"

 

1st guy:  "Do you want to buy some?"

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post #22 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Old Joke:

1st guy:  "Do you have any nude pictures of your wife for sale?"

2nd guy:  "Are you crazy? I respect my wife! The answer is no -- I'd never sell nude pictures of my wife!"

1st guy:  "Do you want to buy some?"

New Joke:

"Then maybe the greatest moment of my life. I'm maybe 12 years old. I'm sneaking around my house. I found my dad's porn in the back of the attic. That was a great day. That was a game changer. But then the worst day was the day I found my mom's porn... in the back of that video store." ~Anthony Jeselnik

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #23 of 94

I wish that we lived in medieval times, because some of these reporters should at the very least be thrown in a dark and cold dungeon and be subjected to a wide variety of wonderful torture devices, in order to pay for their crimes, lies, incompetence and general lack of knowledge.

 

There is no accountability at all for Apple reporting. Anybody can write whatever the hell they please, and it doesn't even matter if they just made it all up and pulled some crap out of their lying asses. Nothing will happen to them. And you have the same crappy organizations posting the same crappy stories over again, year after year, and a great majority of these stories are complete lies. A few might be vaguely accurate, but most are untrue and completely false. Digitimes comes to mind as a serial offender, though there are also others of course. And whenever one of these stories comes out, it simply gets repeated and copied by a whole bunch of other sites. Accuracy and truth are totally irrelevant. Who cares about that?

 

Some of these tech news sites are worse and trashier than the worst gossip newspaper. The National Enquirer has more credibility than some of these sites. 

 

The level of Apple journalism is at an all time low, it is simply sleaze journalism, and anybody connected to any of these sleazy sites should be ashamed to even mention that they work for them. It is more respectable to have your wife star in a gangbang movie getting a golden shower than to be a writer of such sleaze that passes for journalism nowadays. A piece of excrement is more honorable than the people responsible for most Apple rumors.

post #24 of 94

Noise? Like what the trolls make?  

 

Sounds like it. 

post #25 of 94
Too late, Apple stock down 4-5%, Job done.
post #26 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775 View Post

Wait, so it's not iPhone demand falling off a cliff? The WSJ said someone who they can't name told them so...

 

Actually its even worse than that.  The WSJ said someone else said someone else said demand was falling off a cliff.  

post #27 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

For its next trick, WSJ will print nude photos of, and also hack email and voicemail accounts belonging to various Apple executives.


Let's hope they leave Bob Mansfield out of that. He's a great engineer but his nude photos are just not the right stuff to give $AAPL a jolt.

post #28 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I wish that we lived in medieval times, because some of these reporters should at the very least be thrown in a dark and cold dungeon and be subjected to a wide variety of wonderful torture devices, in order to pay for their crimes, lies, incompetence and general lack of knowledge.

 

There is no accountability at all for Apple reporting. Anybody can write whatever the hell they please, and it doesn't even matter if they just made it all up and pulled some crap out of their lying asses. Nothing will happen to them.

 

I am not sure journalism was more accountable in medieval times. The monarch pretty much dictated how history would be written back then, if memory serves.

post #29 of 94

Just for argument's sake ....

 

What if iPhone 5 sales was indeed disappointing but iPad Mini sales went thru the roof (as suggested by activation numbers). How will $AAPL react?

post #30 of 94
While I tend to agree that the rumor about the order cuts is most likely not a sign of actual for iPhone sales, the reason here is absolutely ridiculous. Apple wouldn't order 1 million iPhone cases expecting very bad yields and expecting to only get half 1 million.

The yield problem is the manufacturers problem. Apple orders as many parts as they want, and the manufacturer delivers as many parts as Apple orders. It may take them building 2 million parts to deliver 1 million, but Apple doesn't need to order 2 million parts to get 1 million. They need to order 1 million parts to get one million. So, I would say that this follow-up report is just as much BS as the original report this morning.
post #31 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

not sure I agree with the component yield reasoning. If Apple need 1m panels they order 1m panels. They don't order 2m in the hope that they get 1m working ones. Yield is the problem of the OEM.

I suspect that the situation is:
Apple needs 1 M screens. They're not comfortable wtih either of the potential suppliers, so they order 1 M from each of them. First to ship gets the order and the other order gets canceled (under whatever terms the contract allows).

Now, in reality, it's not all or none since each supplier could probably ship SOME. So they accept them as they come in and then reduce future orders as the supply situation gets straightened out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by xflare View Post

Too late, Apple stock down 4-5%, Job done.

It's amazing that these people never suffer for their crap. In a rational world, the 'analysts' who are wrong 99% of the time shouldn't be able to get the time of day from the press - but that doesn't happen. The press is willing to come back and listen to the same idiots no matter how often they're wrong.
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post #32 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

 

I am not sure journalism was more accountable in medieval times. The monarch pretty much dictated how history would be written back then, if memory serves.

I don't think that journalism was more accountable in medieval times either. I just mentioned it, because of their torture devices.

 

I would at the very least like to see some people end up in jail, if any of the false stories about Apple are proven to be illegal manipulation.

post #33 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I don't think that journalism was more accountable in medieval times either. I just mentioned it, because of their torture devices.

 

I would at the very least like to see some people end up in jail, if any of the false stories about Apple are proven to be illegal manipulation.


I didn't think that you thought so. But reading your post made me think of learning about royal historians back in high school. There was a notable one whose name I'm struggling to remember.

post #34 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


I suspect that the situation is:
Apple needs 1 M screens. They're not comfortable wtih either of the potential suppliers, so they order 1 M from each of them. First to ship gets the order and the other order gets canceled (under whatever terms the contract allows).
 

 

Isn't Samsung supplying most of the iPhone 5 screens? If so, it might not be beneath them to drop an indirect hint to just the right folks ...

post #35 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

not sure I agree with the component yield reasoning. If Apple need 1m panels they order 1m panels. They don't order 2m in the hope that they get 1m working ones. Yield is the problem of the OEM.

 

Mas o menos...

 

"Manufacturing problems" can occur at many stages in the overall process.  For example a display (or other major component) may pass component test, but other defects may not be detected until final assembly -- edge light leak, burn-in, display brightness/color, power consumption, fit and finish...

 

With any "new" manufacturing process you are [at least] concerned with: parts yields; component yields; and final assembly yields.  

 

It was rumored that Apple was having yield problems with iPhone 5 cases, displays... and possibly cell radios, and APs.

 

Also, I suspect that Apple was trying to include 802.11ac WiFi in the latest iPhones, and iPads (for later activation).

 

If yields in more than one of these areas are contributing to unacceptable yields of finished goods -- it could require proactive measures to assure adequate supply -- the ramp-up for expanded rollout, holiday season, new markets (China Mobile), technology (screen) change, supplier/manufacturing partner changes, refresh cycle change to 6 months -- and weaning its dependence on an undesirable supplier.

 

Sometimes the best and fastest way to compensate is to pre-order larger amounts of problem parts and components, reserving manufacturing capacity, etc. -- in addition to spreading orders among multiple suppliers.  Likely, this is done under contract so Apple has the option to reduce orders as the problems are resolved and the yields improve.

 

You could consider it to be that Apple bought several insurance policies to assure that they have adequate product over say, the holiday release quarter, the upgrade/refresh and China Mobile quarter,

 

If Apple actually planned on selling 65 million iPhone 5s in the March 2013 quarter -- likely this was based on new markets such as China Mobile, India, Brazil -- or a new way of selling iPhone 5s into prepaid markets.  If these are delayed. then the supplier needs change.

 

I suspect that Apple expects to sell 35-45 million iPhone 5s in the March 2013 quarter and that it was experiencing yield problems on various parts and components -- so they just upped their orders -- and now, as expected, find that yields have improved so that they can reduce the orders... normal supply-chain management procedures -- share the pain, share the wealth.

 

Finally, IMO, Apple with the China Mobile rollout -- is going to introduce a iPad Mini appliance computer -- where you get a smart phone and a tablet in a single device.  This could impact iPhone 5 sales in emerging and established markets.


Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/14/13 at 1:46pm
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post #36 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Wow I'm really learning a lot reading the news about Apple lately lol.

 

AT$T sold a record number of iPhone, but they didn't sell **** because Samsung sold way more.

 

Apple's Mac sales declined and they grew by 5% last quarter.

 

Kindle Fires had way more online presence than iPads, but iPad Minis sold record numbers.

 

Ipad Minis cannibalized everything Apple sells and also they didn't cannibalize anything. 

 

Apple is going to make a cheap phone but they're not going to make a cheap phone.  

 

Teens say Apple is done.  And Apple is sold out of products around the world.

 

China bought tons of Iphones but Apple got hammered by Samsung in China.

 

And Apple is, as always doomed.

 

But it's a buy with a target price of $1,100, $700, $600, $500, $400 and $250 all at the same time.  

 

Got it.

 

You forgot,

 

Android tablets now have 50% of the market, but no one uses them without changing their user agent string to look like an iPad

 

Ahh... So that's what an Android "activation" means... (of course that includes implementing "Not No-Tracking")

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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #37 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

The stock market today is full of blatent market manipulation, especially tech stocks. Apple has become a favorite play due to the huge rumor mill about it and the ease of planting/hyping rumors that get wide coverage and resulting quick price moves at very substantial volume - with an average 21 million shares traded per day, many short term buyers no doubt. it's "in play."

whereas MS price has stayed nearly flat for some years in spite of its very large volume of about 55 millions shares traded per day. obviously these are insititutional investors.

but of course the biggest scam stock hype of this era is Amazon. with an absurdly high price based on its hyped supposed future prospects that are impossible to connect logically or mathematically with its current business operations. and drawn from an average of just 3 million shares traded per day - because that is all the suckers that can be found!

and the tech industry's focus on - and vulnerability to - stock prices is of course a reflection of its crazy "hit a jackpot" mentality. as if. it's a fool's game.

 

I think the AMZN price is so high because they are expected to win the Oscar for "Best Musical" -- "Waltz me around Willie" -- and Time Magazine "Swindle of the Years".

 

MSFT also has a nomination for "Best Musical" -- "Roll me over in the Clover" * -- but it doesn't meet the quality standard set by "Heaven's Gate" -- just can't beat playing the violin while roller skating...

 

*  Roll me over in the clover, roll me over lay me down and do it again!

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post #38 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

 

Isn't Samsung supplying most of the iPhone 5 screens? If so, it might not be beneath them to drop an indirect hint to just the right folks ...

 

If it was Samsung who was having their orders cut by half then they'd probably keep it a secret.

post #39 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

Instead of a paywall at WSJ to read their drivel they should have a WePayYouWall and pay people to read their fiction.  Sad to see journalism so bad in the USA.  Even sadder that WSJ was an American company last I checked.  When was it favorable to back Samsung over a US based corporation? WSJ patriotism?  Not much.  It would be one thing if they actually reported facts (or anything of value).  But making crap up is pretty slimey. 

 

Ya' know...

 

When I was a teenager, the record companies engaged in an illegal practice that was dubbed "Payola".

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Payola

 

Here's how it worked:  The record companies paid radio stations (and disk jockeys) fees to play certain songs that the record companies were promoting.  Regardless of talent or quality, the song would get lots of plays and place high in the "popular record charts".  So a mediocre song, that had no chance of selling, would appear in the "Top 40's and rising"...  All the teens would rush out to be the first in their group to get this new "hit"... a feeding frenzy.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiBbyz4oE0g

 

 

We may have something like that going on here...  What would it take to bribe a couple of "Journalists/Analysts/Bloggers" to promote a stock -- or better question (disparage) a stock's potential -- using unsubstantiable information and unidentified sources  The perpetrators would benefit from their positions in the stock -- possibly millions of dollars return over a couple of months.  The "Journalists/Analysts/Bloggers" would earn their fees and be protected from revealing their sources...

 

 

BTW, I was told by an industry insider that "Payola" in the recording industry occurs to this day -- it's just done with more sophistication and levels of indirection... 

 

Money need not change hands -- mutually beneficial activities & insider information have market value.


Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/14/13 at 2:42pm
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post #40 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I wish that we lived in medieval times, because some of these reporters should at the very least be thrown in a dark and cold dungeon and be subjected to a wide variety of wonderful torture devices, in order to pay for their crimes, lies, incompetence and general lack of knowledge.

 

There is no accountability at all for Apple reporting. Anybody can write whatever the hell they please, and it doesn't even matter if they just made it all up and pulled some crap out of their lying asses. Nothing will happen to them.

 

I am not sure journalism was more accountable in medieval times. The monarch pretty much dictated how history would be written back then, if memory serves.

 

The same with "Justice" -- Bribing of Judges was common and referenced in various plays by Shakespeare ---  e.g. Merchant of venice.

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