Originally Posted by enature
I had been bullish on AAPL for 7 years - from 2005 till 2012. Friends were calling me an Apple fanatic and thought I was crazy telling them that AAPL will increase 10-fold. When iPhone 5 came, it confirmed my worst fears - a small-screen elongated easily-scratched phone with marginally improved OS and subpar internet services. For the first time in 7 years, I advised to SELL APPL, and the very same friends who did not believe me 7 years ago that AAPL will go sky high, were telling me that AAPL is going to $1000, and how great its products are and how assured its domination is. Such linear thinking is a part of human nature and I cannot blame recent Apple fans to think in the same. But try to think non-linear. Note that Apple growth turned from accelerating to decelerating. It is still growing but its concave DOWN growth. When this happens you know the stock is deep trouble.
But curves by themselves mean nothing. One needs to understand WHY the growth became concave down. And the reason is that under Tim Cook leadership iPhone continues to carry very fat margins but is harder and harder to use relative to its competitors. Tim Cook is a chain-supply genius who is utterly clueless about products. I see board ousting him from his CEO post before 2014 is over, may be sooner.
You may, if you like, focus on the fact that Apple's growth is slowing (temporarily), and the fact that Tim is no Steve, and the fact that the anodzing scratches, and the fact that the screen is smaller than the Galactic phones, and conclude that your friends are going to be right and Apple is going to make you look bad. I think you are thinking visually, about appearances, and not deeply or widely enough.
This is a struggle for the soul of a technology, and I think you have a duty to stop shrieking about Apple's decline and fall until you can think more holistically than just visually. Unless you want the likes of Samsung and Google to win, then you just go ahead and keep thinking narrowly and shrieking about how things look bad, really bad, and try to spread your hysteria.
Hysteria which is based on thinking visually. A moment's holistic thinking will tell you that Ive and a team of the world's best designers, not Cook, are in charge of product concepts. Cook is the guy to lead Apple now, not in 1997, because Apple has become a diverse and far-flung enterprise that only a logistcs and strategics genius like him can run. They are going to be growing in spurts, sometimes evolving out a new platform or world information service, sometimes shoring up manufacturers and supplies for maintaining a more mature platform. But always growing, preparing for the next new platform and therefore new growth spurt.
You are shrieking during a period of platform maintenance, when they are growing at 25% rather than 100%. Meanwhile , they are planning things that will make you look good to your friends again, if you keep quiet and just be patient.
By the way, there are little tiny scratches on everything I use, including the toughest mass-product glass known to man, that only Apple had the courage to put on the BACK of a phone, that Apple caused to be developed, just like Apple is causing aluminum to be developed as an art-and-architectural feature for their current portable devices. Yes they scratch, but your white shoes and your white tennis shorts get dirty, don't they?
Visually is no way to think about technological ecosystems. Think tactile-ly, like Ive does, like Marshall McLuhan did. It's the most integrative of the senses. And calming.Edited by Flaneur - 1/16/13 at 12:46am