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Investment banks see 50 million iPhones sold in Q4, $1,111 target for AAPL shares

post #1 of 72
Thread Starter 
Researchers at Piper Jaffray expect that Apple will reveal during its quarterly conference call next week that it sold some 50 million iPhones for the quarter ending in December, five million more units than the firm previously estimated, while Topeka Capital Markets sees positive indicators for AAPL and set a price target of $1,111 for the stock.

AAPL
After seeing a decline over the past month, Apple stock gained $20.17 (4.15%) on Wednesday to close at $506.09. | Chart via Reuters


In a quarterly preview, analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray predicts that Apple will surpass the firm's earlier December quarter estimates by five million units based in part on "commentary from AT&T suggesting iPhone sales expanded slightly [year-over-year] and [from] Verizon that iPhone helped it reach record activations in December." Munster estimates roughly 15 million iPhones could have been sold in the U.S., with a possible global sales range of 41 to 54 million units.

Munster also reduces the estimate for iPhones sales for the upcoming March 2013 quarter by five million to 38 million units. The firm expects that Apple's forthcoming guidance will shed light on recent reports of component order cuts.

Piper also expects Apple to announce 25 million iPad sales for the December quarter, with 20 million full-size iPads sold alongside five million iPad minis. Mac sales will likely see a drop of seven percent year-over-year, with Apple selling 4.8 million Macs over the last three months of 2012.

Topeka Capital: Apple risk-reward "extremely attractive"



Analysts at Topeka Capital Markets remain upbeat on AAPL despite negative sentiment surrounding the stock. In a report released Wednesday -- titled "Apple's Brightest and Most Innovative Days are Ahead of It" -- analyst Brian White said the firm believes Apple's product portfolio "has never been stronger," rated the stock a "buy," and set a 12-month price target of $1,111.

White pointed toward three factors in his positive assessment of Apple's future. First was the continuing growth of the smartphone and tablet sectors, two areas where Apple holds an enviable position as a market leader. Second were positive indications out of China, where Apple is working on a deal with the world's largest carrier China Mobile and is now moving to position its iPhone to be more price-competitive.

Finally, White pointed to the television market, which he believes is still ripe for an Apple disruption. The report views Apple's "reinvention" of the TV experience as an eventuality, and White was unimpressed with the smart TV offerings Samsung, LG, and others had on display at last week's Consumer Electronics Show. A strongly disruptive Apple television product, White says, could create an entirely new $100 billion to $400 billion market opportunity.
post #2 of 72

$1,111?! That has to be a typo. They must mean $1.11¡

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #3 of 72
I'd be willing to accept $1,111 a share if someone twists my arm.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #4 of 72

Time for manipulative pigs to come back to the trough.

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post #5 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

$1,111?! That has to be a typo. They must mean $1.11¡

Pfffftttt...

 

My Morgan Stanley financial advisor (I recently retired) thinks AAPL is poised for take off. It's in my IRA portfolio.

post #6 of 72

I think $1,100 is a little on the lofty side, UNLESS they sign China Mobile and come out with a kick butt HDTV line along with some major iPhone, iPad etc. releases.  I think that $750 to $800 during the next 12 months is POSSIBLE.  But I feel $700 to $750 is a little more realistic.  But I think there is a good chance they'll sign China Mobile, but it's a matter of what deal they strike, but China Mobile wants too much.  

post #7 of 72
Originally Connected to digitalclips View Post

💪

 

Stupid bounding box.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #8 of 72
The biggest surprise for me here is the prediction that they sold 4x as many full-size iPads as iPad Minis. I think the mix will lean much more heavily towards the Minis. Not great for the margins, but I think they sold a lot of Minis.
post #9 of 72
I can see Apple hitting that price but the odds of someone doing an actual calculation and coming out with $1,111 ± 0.5 is highly improbable. It sounds like they choose $1,111 because it's all 1's and therefore sounds cool. We've seen this number before with Apple's stock. That makes a number derived from emotion rather than analysis. I don't want that with an investment banker.


PS: At this point Apple will need a share price of 1,063.05 to be a a trillion dollar company.

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post #10 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

I think $1,100 is a little on the lofty side, UNLESS they sign China Mobile and come out with a kick butt HDTV line along with some major iPhone, iPad etc. releases.  I think that $750 to $800 during the next 12 months is POSSIBLE.  But I feel $700 to $750 is a little more realistic.  But I think there is a good chance they'll sign China Mobile, but it's a matter of what deal they strike, but China Mobile wants too much.  

What you saw today, to me, felt a lot like running out of sellers.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next week if the decline has finally shaken out the weak.  I certainly have heard from a lot of Joes who were panicking about the stock.  Guess what happens when the average man finally panics?  I got really lucky and bought some calls for $12 yesterday that closed at $18 today.  I plan to hold them, along with the other calls I have (all April strike) through earnings and for about a month after that if everything goes as I think it will.  That is, I think Apple will post earnings impressive enough to send the stock up strongly afterward as the fear that has built-up over the last 3 months is removed from a large section of the investing public, and that rubber band snaps back.  These do not have to be an epic blow-out, as they used to have to be, but as long as Apple shows that the sky is not indeed falling, that it does in fact expect to still sell phones next quarter, the stock should have a lot of room to move up.


I'm I'm wrong, and Apple really hasn't been able to make and sell iPhone5s this quarter because of production constraints, then I'm going to lose a LOT of money with this gamble.

post #11 of 72
Re: "...and White was unimpressed with the smart TV offerings Samsung, LG, and others had on display at last week's Consumer Electronics Show."

If running apps on your big-screen TV were a truly great idea, WebTV would have taken over the world in the mid-1990s. They didn't.

I used to think that TV networks could become "appified." There could be a CBS app, Showtime app, whatever, represented by icons right there on your screen. And you could somehow launch those apps and get a program guide for watching live or search for pre-recorded shows to play on-demand. But that doesn't make any sense at all. Networks are irrelevant. Who cares what f-ing network a show is on?

No need for a CBS app or Showtime app. Not if you can just get "the latest Hawaii Five-0," or "all episodes of Dexter that I missed, in order," or "the Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes that Ashley Judd appeared in."

Slightly off-topic? Not really. Television is yet another industry represented at CES that Apple can disrupt. The TVs at the show are a mix of bad ideas (TVs running apps, 3D TVs) and currently super-expensive future-tech (Ultra HD 4K and 8K.) Ripe for disruption.

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post #12 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I'm I'm wrong, and Apple really hasn't been able to make and sell iPhone5s this quarter because of production constraints, then I'm going to lose a LOT of money with this gamble.

 

Fact Apple sold more iPhones last quarter than Samsung has sold Galaxy S III's and 2's combined over two years.

 

Fact Apple sold many times more iPhone's than Nokia sold Lumia phone's, yet Nokia selling 4.4 million is seen as a positive.

 

Smoke and mirrors manipulation.

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post #13 of 72

Bought my shares back when it was under 150 so it's all gravy to me, but $1,100 seems a bit ludicrous unless PJ thinks the iTV is not only a reality but a serious contender (I really don't think it is, not when you can get a fantastic 60" TV that is an inch and a half thick for under a grand right now) With the overall computer market down, and increasingly stiff competition in both the tablet and mobile phone markets, they would have to enter a new market completely to even break 800, to say anything of 1,100. Does Gene Munster of piper Jaffray know something the rest of us don't regarding the future plans of Apple?

post #14 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

Bought my shares back when it was under 150 so it's all gravy to me, but $1,100 seems a bit ludicrous unless PJ thinks the iTV is not only a reality but a serious contender (I really don't think it is, not when you can get a fantastic 60" TV that is an inch and a half thick for under a grand right now) With the overall computer market down, and increasingly stiff competition in both the tablet and mobile phone markets, they would have to enter a new market completely to even break 800, to say anything of 1,100. Does Gene Munster of piper Jaffray know something the rest of us don't regarding the future plans of Apple?

It's not at all crazy.

If Apple simply returns to the same P/E as the rest of the market, its share price would be over $1,000.
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post #15 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Fact Apple sold more iPhones last quarter than Samsung has sold Galaxy S III's and 2's combined over two years.

 

Fact Apple sold many times more iPhone's than Nokia sold Lumia phone's, yet Nokia selling 4.4 million is seen as a positive.

 

Smoke and mirrors manipulation.

 

I wasn't aware Apple had released sales figures for Q4. I thought that was next week.

 

As for Q3, well: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/galaxy-s3-sales-worlds-number-one-smartphone_n_2091689.html

 

Now if you want to compare ALL iPhones, from 3GS to 5, versus ALL Galaxy S series phones, pretty sure Samsung comes out ahead on that too.

post #16 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Fact Apple sold more iPhones last quarter than Samsung has sold Galaxy S III's and 2's combined over two years.

 

Fact Apple sold many times more iPhone's than Nokia sold Lumia phone's, yet Nokia selling 4.4 million is seen as a positive.

 

Smoke and mirrors manipulation.

None of that matters.  But thanks for the info (which everyone already knew).

post #17 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

 

I wasn't aware Apple had released sales figures for Q4. I thought that was next week.

 

As for Q3, well: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/galaxy-s3-sales-worlds-number-one-smartphone_n_2091689.html

 

Now if you want to compare ALL iPhones, from 3GS to 5, versus ALL Galaxy S series phones, pretty sure Samsung comes out ahead on that too.

While true, that's a time period where Apple had an aging phone competing against a new one, and then at the end of the quarter had a new phone which of course couldn't beat a phone that had a whole quarter to sell.  Since Samsung doesn't release the numbers on its sales, there is no way for you to prove the last point you made.  But you can be sure that S3 vs iPhone5 is not going to be close this quarter.

post #18 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


It's not at all crazy.

If Apple simply returns to the same P/E as the rest of the market, its share price would be over $1,000.

 

But the market doesn't operate purely based on P/E, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to Cook's leadership, especially after the recent gaffs with the Retail chain and the (much needed, according to some) departure of Forstall. Apple needs to not only have a great year, but release some truly innovative products with their next iPad, iPhone, iOS7 and Mac lines before 1,000 and higher become realistic possibilities.

post #19 of 72
But there's an article on CNBC asking if there's anyone left to buy iPhones. 1hmm.gif
post #20 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

 

I wasn't aware Apple had released sales figures for Q4. I thought that was next week.

 

As for Q3, well: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/galaxy-s3-sales-worlds-number-one-smartphone_n_2091689.html

 

Now if you want to compare ALL iPhones, from 3GS to 5, versus ALL Galaxy S series phones, pretty sure Samsung comes out ahead on that too.

 

Um, so many of you FAIL to realize that Samdung from day one has aggressively DISCOUNTED nearly it's entire line to COMPETE with Apple.  They (Samdung) hardly "achieved" anything without such a strategy.  Non stop fire sales always always work for mass distribution.  

 

The demise of Apple iPhone sales are greatly exaggerated.  Why do so many of you guys care if people don't buy the iphone 5?  I just had a lunch meeting with someone who's wife just "upgraded" to the iPhone 4S and shes over the moon...Meaning that the big driver right now is value -- pricing and most importantly -- CONTRACTS.  I know a lot of you just don't wanna believe reality and think people just buy these devices on a whim or impulse but wake up to reality.  Apples biggest mistake, it's biggest was leaving the June quarter wide open to disruption by Samsung.  Moving the iphone to the fall with nothing new in the June quarter was a grand canyon wide opening for ANY player -- a smart move now would be to in fact move a different model or version and in fact release two phones a year.  I don't think they have a choice. And my marketing gut tells me that in fact Apple will release "a new iphone" in June -- like rumored.  They have to and it will pay off in spades.  Bet ya.

 

I also do tho seriously think that the "iPhone sales game" is now being cannibalized by itself.  I have faith Apple knew this going into the holiday season and hence some (finally) aggressive pricing.  And...I don't see a cheaper iphone "destroying" the brand. Um it didnt effect the ipod line one bit, it wont affect the iphone.


Edited by gijoeinla - 1/16/13 at 4:19pm
post #21 of 72
It's unusual when an analyst sets a 12-month target price and stays with it. I don't see Apple ever reaching $1000, but I'd certainly be happy if it did. I'll be satisfied if Apple gets back up to $700 and I can keep collecting decent dividends. Most of these analysts are just sheep and usually behind the curve. Some of them are changing target prices every few months for Apple. They start downgrading Apple after it has already gone down. What the hell good is that to any investors.
post #22 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

But the market doesn't operate purely based on P/E, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to Cook's leadership, especially after the recent gaffs with the Retail chain and the (much needed, according to some) departure of Forstall. Apple needs to not only have a great year, but release some truly innovative products with their next iPad, iPhone, iOS7 and Mac lines before 1,000 and higher become realistic possibilities.
But plenty of people in the investment community and in the media are rewriting history. If you believe them Apple was coming out with revolutionary products left and right under Steve Jobs. That wasn't the case. There was 4 years between iMac and iPod, 6 years between iPod and iPhone and 3 years between iPhone and iPad. I'm sick of people throwing out this innovation BS. Everyone throws it out to knock Apple but yet can't ever really articulate what others are doing that is so much more innovative. A lot of people would say bigger displays on smartphones is innovation. Yet at the same time don't think Apple fitting all this amazing technology into thinner and lighter devices is innovative at all. PC OEM's are throwing out all these different laptop designs - convertibles, touch screens, etc. but we have yet to see any real demand for them. I have zero problems with Apple being more conservative rather than throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
post #23 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

But the market doesn't operate purely based on P/E, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to Cook's leadership, especially after the recent gaffs with the Retail chain and the (much needed, according to some) departure of Forstall. Apple needs to not only have a great year, but release some truly innovative products with their next iPad, iPhone, iOS7 and Mac lines before 1,000 and higher become realistic possibilities.

The market doesn't look solely at P/E, but it's a primary consideration for long term investors. More importantly, the investor has to predict what the P/E will be in the future.

The point is that EVEN IF APPLE'S PROFITS DO NOT GROW for the next decade, they're STILL vastly under-priced. A general rule is that if the investor thinks they're growing at the same rate as the market (a couple percent a year), the the P/E (after adjusting for assets) should be compared to the market's P/E ratio. It can vary, but there needs to be a good reason and "we're not comfortable with Cook yet" isn't much of one considering how integral his role has been for the past decade.
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post #24 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

 It can vary, but there needs to be a good reason and "we're not comfortable with Cook yet" isn't much of one considering how integral his role has been for the past decade.

What about "some of us are really starting to wonder why Cook has the reputation he has" given the fact that the past year has seen colossal mistakes of production (and mismatching design with production capabilities).  Unsure, vs actively starting to dislike... well, I'm in the latter category.

post #25 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

What about "some of us are really starting to wonder why Cook has the reputation he has" given the fact that the past year has seen colossal mistakes of production (and mismatching design with production capabilities).  Unsure, vs actively starting to dislike... well, I'm in the latter category.

Or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about. "colossal mistake of production" and "mismatching design with production capabilities"? Maybe you should stop accepting rumors as Gospel.
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post #26 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

 

I wasn't aware Apple had released sales figures for Q4. I thought that was next week.

 

As for Q3, well: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/galaxy-s3-sales-worlds-number-one-smartphone_n_2091689.html

 

Now if you want to compare ALL iPhones, from 3GS to 5, versus ALL Galaxy S series phones, pretty sure Samsung comes out ahead on that too.


it's interesting that ALL iPhones excludes the original and the 3G. Not sure how Sammy comes out on top when they only beat the iphone in 1 quarter.

post #27 of 72
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
The market doesn't look solely at P/E, but it's a primary consideration for long term investors. More importantly, the investor has to predict what the P/E will be in the future.

 

Do you know of any sites that will list and sort companies (either all within a sector or just all companies) by factors like this? 

 

Yahoo! Finance does it by entire sector, which isn't helpful at all. I just want to see where Amazon's 3,594.36 P/E stands when compared to others in the tech industry and the global market as a whole.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #28 of 72

AAPL has been on a short down term recently, fueled by various factors, including general global economic worries, fiscal cliff crap and a whole slew of moronic and clueless media writing garbage, bogus articles. Not very bright people have been predicting Apple's death for decades now, and I'm sorry to tell these morons that Apple's best days are still ahead of it.

 

Just you wait and see. I can definitely see $1,111 happening. AAPL has big swings both up and down, but when it starts on it's ascent again, it's going to be quick, brutal and like a super charged rocket ship. When AAPL moves up, it moves up quickly, so quickly that people are afraid of missing the train, and so quickly, that bears and people holding shorts are going to crap their pants in order to cover their losses.

 

$1,111 here we come! I'm hoping that today's move means that AAPL can finally continue on it's intended path again, especially with the earnings report coming next week. Of course nobody, besides a few people at Apple knows exactly what's in that report, but if it's a good report, which I'm certainly hoping that it is, I wouldn't be surprised if we are back at $600 very soon. Like I said, just you wait and see. And that is my 2 cents.

post #29 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Do you know of any sites that will list and sort companies (either all within a sector or just all companies) by factors like this? 

 

Yahoo! Finance does it by entire sector, which isn't helpful at all. I just want to see where Amazon's 3,594.36 P/E stands when compared to others in the tech industry and the global market as a whole.

According to this article, Amazon lost $247 Million in it's last quarter and Apple had profits of more than 8 Billion.

 

http://blogs.hbr.org/pallotta/2013/01/the-market-wants-apple-to-unve.html

 

How Amazon has a P/E in the thousands is just a freaking joke, while Apple has a P/E that is so low that a child can count it using ten fingers and a few toes.


Edited by Apple ][ - 1/16/13 at 6:18pm
post #30 of 72
Ma
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post

The biggest surprise for me here is the prediction that they sold 4x as many full-size iPads as iPad Minis. I think the mix will lean much more heavily towards the Minis. Not great for the margins, but I think they sold a lot of Minis.
maybe they sold a lot of both!
post #31 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about. "colossal mistake of production" and "mismatching design with production capabilities"? Maybe you should stop accepting rumors as Gospel.

Apple clearly couldn't produce the iMac in quantities sufficient to satisfy the market during the holiday season.  There is dispute, which we will find out the truth about soon, about the iPhone5.  The iPad3 could not be made quickly enough because of the retina screen.  Neither of us "know what we're talking about" until the numbers come out.  At least I acknowledge that.  You also need to look up the meaning of the word gospel.

post #32 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Do you know of any sites that will list and sort companies (either all within a sector or just all companies) by factors like this? 

 

Yahoo! Finance does it by entire sector, which isn't helpful at all. I just want to see where Amazon's 3,594.36 P/E stands when compared to others in the tech industry and the global market as a whole.

 

Not a very comprehensive list, but here's a few companies. It's six months old.

 

post #33 of 72

Brian white has been wrong so many times in his earnings calls that it almost a sure thing that you can bet on the opposite of what he's saying.

post #34 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by BUSHMAN4 View Post

Brian white has been wrong so many times in his earnings calls that it almost a sure thing that you can bet on the opposite of what he's saying.

No analyst on the planet gets its right every time, and yes, they are often wrong.

 

However, I'd say that his price target is closer to being right, than a few moronic analysts who predict doom and gloom for apple, and for AAPL to collapse.

 

We shall see where AAPL is 12 months from now.

post #35 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Do you know of any sites that will list and sort companies (either all within a sector or just all companies) by factors like this? 

Yahoo! Finance does it by entire sector, which isn't helpful at all. I just want to see where Amazon's 3,594.36 P/E stands when compared to others in the tech industry and the global market as a whole.

Go to google.com/finance, select 'Stock Screener' on the left, and input a P/E range (e.g., min 3000 max 9000), and ask it it to list the stocks.

Have fun with the answer!
post #36 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

 

Not a very comprehensive list, but here's a few companies. It's six months old.

 

 

Today's P/E for Apple is 11.46

For Google: 22.40.

For Amazon: 3,594.36

For LinkedIn: 767.77

For Facebook: 277.47

For Priceline: 25.21

For eBay: 18.04


Edited by mdriftmeyer - 1/16/13 at 7:21pm
post #37 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by "Apple 
[" url="/t/155494/investment-banks-see-50-million-iphones-sold-in-q4-1-111-target-for-aapl-shares/30#post_2260097"]
Not a very comprehensive list, but here's a few companies. It's six months old.



These are Forward P/Es (i.e., price divided by forecasted earnings for next year).

Amazon's Current P/E is, indeed, 3000+, and only three other companies -- all tiny, and all losers -- currently exceed that for any listed stock in the US.

Btw, if I were Bezos, I'd be having nightmares about about the earnings growth I'd have to show over the course of the coming year to get my P/E from its current 3000+ to less than 100!
post #38 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Today's P/E for Apple is 11.46
For Google: 22.40.

And for AMZN: 3,594.36

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post #39 of 72
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
Go to google.com/finance, select 'Stock Screener' on the left, and input a P/E range (e.g., min 3000 max 9000), and ask it it to list the stocks.

Have fun with the answer!

 

Thanks!

 

 

Fourth highest. FOURTH. HIGHEST.

 

What the heck is Pizza Inn? Looks like every single argument against Apple in the App Store trademark thread has just been invalidated: you don't like how "Pizza" and "Hut" in one name have been trademarked? SHUT UP AND CHANGE YOUR NAME. Worked for these guys.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #40 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

These are Forward P/Es (i.e., price divided by forecasted earnings for next year).

Actually, everything I've seen says that Apple's CURRENT P/E is under 12 and the forward P/E is under 9. After you adjust for cash, those numbers drop to about 10-11 current and low 7s for forward P/E/
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