or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer, pushing stock back toward $700
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer, pushing stock back toward $700

post #1 of 67
Thread Starter 
With 2013 off to a tough start for Apple stock, one analyst attempted to ease investor concerns on Friday, noting that comparisons to a strong 2012 will begin to ease as the year goes on.

A year ago, the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 shared common components, helping to boost Apple's gross margins, Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities said in a note to investors on Friday. Along with a record setting launch of the iPhone 4S in the 2011 December quarter, he believes it could make for a tough comparison for Apple for the start of the year.

But Um sees Apple's difficult 2012 comparisons easing as the year goes on. He expects that Apple's next iPhone, the so-called "iPhone 5S," will share design similarities to the current iPhone 5, helping to improve margins.

Wells Fargo


Because of that, Apple's current "black ice," as Um put it, is predicted to "thaw through summer." He sees easier comparisons to 2012 along with improving gross margins, which could improve sentiment among investors.

"While this requires some patience as the cycle transitions and then matures to drive gross margin, we believe valuation will rise with sentiment," Um said.

"While there seems to be some concern around competition and diminishing demand, had some operators not been as restrictive on upgrades relative to past new product launches, Apple would have experienced an even stronger launch, making what we expect to be a record setting December even more impressive."

Wells Fargo Securities has a projected valuation range for AAPL stock from $680 to $730. That's a wider range than their previous forecast of $710 to $730.

For the December quarter, Um expects Apple sold 48 million iPhone units, with about three quarters of those being the new iPhone 5. And iPad sales are projected to be 20.2 million, with about half of them being the iPad mini, dropping the average selling price to $450.

His revenue estimate of $53 billion is below consensus of $54.7 billion, while his earnings per share forecast of $13.67 is above the Street's $13.41.
post #2 of 67

I'll stick with listening to the $1,111 prediction instead.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #3 of 67

"Black ice" ?

 

*rolleyes*

 

 

FFS...

 

Just get to the quarterly report already. 

post #4 of 67
Apple will report eps of $15.24 .
post #5 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


"While this requires some patience as the cycle transitions and then matures to drive gross margin, we believe valuation will rise with sentiment," Um said.

profound observation
post #6 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'll stick with listening to the $1,111 prediction instead.

Screw that¡ I'm predicting Apple will share price will be 1,111,111 making it the first quadrillion* dollar company.


* Billiard for you Europeans.


edit: It's come to my attention that people don't readily know how to scale values past a billion or trillion. It's easy. You start with million than change to bi for the 2nd range, then tri for the 3rd range, then quadrillion, quintillion, sextillion, septillion, octillion, nonillion, and decillion. I think it's pretty straightforward.
Edited by SolipsismX - 1/18/13 at 10:02am

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #7 of 67
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
* Billiard for you Europeans.

 

Oh gosh, people actually still USE those terms? I thought they showed up in charts for the benefit of the last living generation and for historic purposes… 

 

It's like how they changed "larboard" to "port"; you'd think someone would have noticed a problem in those names a long time ago. I guess they did—that's why we have the modern names—but still.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #8 of 67

So this is it? All this guy's got is "Soft Kitty"?

Quality isn't expensive... it's priceless.

Reply

Quality isn't expensive... it's priceless.

Reply
post #9 of 67
Analysts and so-called experts don't even know what they want from Apple. And even if Apple does release or do whatever that they want or expect, they still would not be happy. So I say, "Meh!"

iMac mid 2011 • 27 in • 3,4 GHz Core i7 • 32 GB RAM • AMD Radeon HD 6970M 2GB VRAM

Reply

iMac mid 2011 • 27 in • 3,4 GHz Core i7 • 32 GB RAM • AMD Radeon HD 6970M 2GB VRAM

Reply
post #10 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Oh gosh, people actually still USE those terms? I thought they showed up in charts for the benefit of the last living generation and for historic purposes… 

It's like how they changed "larboard" to "port"; you'd think someone would have noticed a problem in those names a long time ago. I guess they did—that's why we have the modern names—but still.

I'm not quite sure. The Americans and Europeans each have their own reasons for holding onto things that are antiquated. I didn't want to assume that we're all on the same page.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PScooter63 View Post

So this is it? All this guy's got is "Soft Kitty"?

This?
(link)

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #11 of 67

Then there's this. Hmmm....

 

Google advises today that *ahem* analyst projections are probably too high?

http://investor.google.com/releases/2013/0118.html

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #12 of 67

Meanwhile, Wall Street somehow pins Apples price on todays option expiry date right below $500. Not exactly a glide path, but neatly done.

 

I get the sentiment manipulation with the articles in the press, but I don't get how they steer the price in cases like this. Naturally, I don't touch options ...

post #13 of 67
Thanks Maynard, but you're really not helping.
post #14 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

With 2013 off to a tough start for Apple....

Yeah, real tough. I'm hurting for you Apple. Plummeting sales, layoffs, take-over talk, selling off of assets, lack of innovation, customer defections... oh wait, that's Nokia... errr... RIM ....

 

1oyvey.gif

post #15 of 67

Now I'm no analyst of course, but as these people are merely guessing and pulling numbers out of their asses, and their guesses are based on whatever available limited and faulty data that they can get their hands on, wouldn't it have been a smart thing to at least wait until Wednesday's earnings, until they open up their fat mouths again and then they can continue to come out with their wild speculations?

 

Why bother to make a prediction a few days before Apple releases the real deal and real numbers, when everybody can get a much clearer picture of how Apple is doing?

 

I am so damn tired of these analyst morons by now. Most are completely useless, and the SEC should be investigating certain ones, as some of them belong in a cold and dark jail cell, IMO.

 

And what's with the black ice? It sounds like something that Al Sharpton should protest against.

post #16 of 67

I still think this anti/pro apple 'info' campaign is to lock prices into a narrow band that will profit the big money in the market.  After next Wednesday's call, anticipate a major trend up in price.... my guess is those in the know, know that, and they want to maximize profits now by increasing the uncertainty prior to the facts being announced.

 

In short, All the p*ssies will be out of the market by today, Big money will move in, ride the wave back up to $700.  I see shades of 2008/9 (Aug 8 AAPL was 176. on January 16th 2009, it was 82. By Sept 2009 it 'DOUBLED' to 195, and pretty much rode that value line  through to 704 last year.

 

As bad as everything is... we still aren't even near a 52 week low. (419 - Jan 19, 2012)

post #17 of 67
Whatever, I choose to believe the AI resident share pusher TCM's Brian White, my completely consensual target is actually $2.000+ a share in the next 12 months, he has no financial interest deceiving me nor AI editors have one quoting him weekly, It even looks like some 'investment banks" share his insight in headlines lately, so I think I will just buy.
post #18 of 67

Yet another analyst talking out of his arse.

 

"Black ice"?  LOL!

post #19 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

And what's with the black ice? It sounds like something that Al Sharpton should protest against.

If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 

 

Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  

post #20 of 67

Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer

 

Otherwise known as...

 

The analysts worthless / FUD rumours & speculation to play down the AAPL share price in the market will cease for the time being, so those that bought up lots of shares at the lower price can sell at a high & make a killing again.

post #21 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 

Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  

It's also my rapper name. Represent!

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #22 of 67
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  


That's a better analogy than the actual one.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #23 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 

 

Basically it's the loss of traction of Apple's stock due to the exhaust from these doubt mongers prior to the earnings release.  

 

I see. I've been to some pretty cold places before, but I don't really remember encountering any "black" ice before I believe.

 

Ice almost killed me once. I was riding a motorcycle many years ago in some frigid Scandinavian country, and underneath a bridge, there was a patch of ice. I lost control, and I ended up sliding on my head into the opposite, incoming traffic lane. Luckily for me, it was real early in the morning and there was virtually no traffic on the roads. I was wearing a helmet, and the only damage was that I ripped my jeans and I got a little bruise on the knee. Riding motorcycles in sub zero temps can be fun, but also slightly risky I guess.

post #24 of 67
And Amazon was just upgraded to outperform. I'm sorry I just find that comical.
post #25 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

And Amazon was just upgraded to outperform. I'm sorry I just find that comical.

Makes sense. Last quarter, they lost what? Around 270 or so million?

 

Maybe next quarter they'll only report losses of 165 million, that's a huge improvement, and it makes sense to upgrade the stock. What a profitable company! Meanwhile Apple is making billions and billions each quarter.

post #26 of 67
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post
While we are on the topic of AAPL.

 

Al Gore seems to be doing okay these days.

 

I guess backpage stuff really only shows up on the backpage.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #27 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

While we are on the topic of AAPL.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/al-gore-nets-another-fortune-164510966.html?l=1

 

Al Gore seems to be doing okay these days.

 

You could say that. Being able to buy Apple shares for $7.48 a piece? It's pretty ironic that a lot of his recent money comes from oil money too. 

 

One of my many goals is to have a larger carbon footprint than Al Gore. I still have a ways to go, but I am working on it.

post #28 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Then there's this. Hmmm....


Google advises today that *ahem* analyst projections are probably too high?
http://investor.google.com/releases/2013/0118.html

How thoughtful of you to help them get the word out. Do they have a preemptive excuse prepared for if their revenue per click declines again?
post #29 of 67

Apple screen revolution near: analyst

 

Apple’s cancellation of orders with iPhone parts suppliers is not tied to a drop in demand but to a tech update, according to one tech researcher.

 

http://m.nypost.com/p/news/business/apple_screen_revolution_near_analyst_0zYs8fi43l2ZJANNhg7qRN

post #30 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Yeah, real tough. I'm hurting for you Apple. Plummeting sales, layoffs, take-over talk, selling off of assets, lack of innovation, customer defections... oh wait, that's Nokia... errr... RIM ....

1oyvey.gif

And if we were comparing Apple to other companies, that would mean something. We're not. The market is comparing Tim Cook's Apple to Steve Jobs's Apple, unfair as that might be.

Just release that earnings report already and put your damn cards on the table. Put an end to these ridiculous speculation articles.
post #31 of 67
I want a dividend increase. I want to make more money while holding onto the stock. 1smile.gif
post #32 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

And if we were comparing Apple to other companies, that would mean something. We're not. The market is comparing Tim Cook's Apple to Steve Jobs's Apple, unfair as that might be.

It was under Tim Cook that Apple's stock dropped nearly in half in the span of 5 weeks. And by Tim Cook I mean Steve Jobs. August, 22, 2008 at 177 to October 3, 2008 at 97.
Edited by SolipsismX - 1/18/13 at 11:22am

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #33 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


It was under Tim Cook that Apple's stock dropped nearly in half in the span of 5 weeks. And by Tim Cook I mean Steve Jobs. August, 22, 2008 at 177 to October 3, 2008 at 97.

 

Looking back on it, that was clearly the beginning of the end for Apple. Too bad that iPhone thing never worked out for them. Maybe if they could have brought a tablet to market before they ran out of cash, things might have been different.

post #34 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

If you're not from a cold weather state... Black ice is 'invisible' ice, forms from car exhaust freezing on untreated super cold road (below 20degF) surface.  We get it in MN all the time. 

I didn't know it sometimes forms that way, but that's just one way it forms.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_ice
post #35 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Looking back on it, that was clearly the beginning of the end for Apple. Too bad that iPhone thing never worked out for them. Maybe if they could have brought a tablet to market before they ran out of cash, things might have been different.

That was soon after the iPhone 3G launched with that plastic body and using pretty much the same ASIC as the original iPhone. I guess people realized Apple was just screwing them over and had no idea how to make a cell phone.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #36 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post


How thoughtful of you to help them get the word out. Do they have a preemptive excuse prepared for if their revenue per click declines again?

You read the same linked investor notice I did I presume. I don't think it said anything about click rates. It's a fairly prominent article over at 9to5. I would have linked it but it doesn't agree with AI. 1hmm.gif

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #37 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

You read the same linked investor notice I did I presume. I don't think it said anything about click rates. It's a fairly prominent article over at 9to5. I would have linked it but it doesn't agree with AI. 1hmm.gif

The forum here does have a stupid filter that mangles 9to5 links. Is that what you mean, or the content of the report disagrees?
post #38 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


That was soon after the iPhone 3G launched with that plastic body and using pretty much the same ASIC as the original iPhone. I guess people realized Apple was just screwing them over and had no idea how to make a cell phone.

 

And then they had the effrontery the next year to release what was basically the same phone, with just the letter S appended to the name, and call it a new phone. Hubris, sheer hubris. Android wasn't sitting still.

post #39 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'll stick with listening to the $1,111 prediction instead.

Since you twisted my arm the other day I will too. 1smoking.gif
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
post #40 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Then there's this. Hmmm....

 

Google advises today that *ahem* analyst projections are probably too high?

http://investor.google.com/releases/2013/0118.html

Interesting. Thanks for that.

 

Basically, they're saying, trust our proforma number.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer, pushing stock back toward $700