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Apple's 'black ice' predicted to 'thaw' by summer, pushing stock back toward $700 - Page 2

post #41 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post

I want a dividend increase. I want to make more money while holding onto the stock. 1smile.gif

I think that -- for better or worse, rightly or wrongly -- some of the change in sentiment (i.e., all this nonsense about 'law of large numbers' and AAPL becoming a 'value' stock) was because of the dividend initiation.

 

Some of us here were concerned with the likely long-term signaling effects of that, and it seems to have come to pass. (See, e.g., http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578246173657545416.html?mod=googlenews_wsj).

 

So, IMHO, I think that a further dividend increase would be a mistake. I think Apple should announce a massive $50B one-time buyback next week. If nothing else, they'd be picking up their own stock at ~$500 to keep as treasury stock, and assuming management believes that the stock is seriously undervalued and will rise to its intrinsic value over time, use that treasury stock to hand out to employees that exercise their options at the higher price (so as to prevent ownership dilution).

post #42 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

"Black ice" ?

*rolleyes*


FFS...

Just get to the quarterly report already. 
That's just what I was thinking. Black Ice? WTF.
post #43 of 67

Haha, AAPL closed at EXACTLY $500.00? What a shocker!

 

And who says there isn't manipulation going on?lol.gif

 

Anyway, I picked up a few more shares for 499.9999. Now, I just wait until Wednesday.1smoking.gif

post #44 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by battiato1981 View Post

Meanwhile, Wall Street somehow pins Apples price on todays option expiry date right below $500. Not exactly a glide path, but neatly done.

 

I get the sentiment manipulation with the articles in the press, but I don't get how they steer the price in cases like this. Naturally, I don't touch options ...

Closed at $500.00 on the nose. 

post #45 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Haha, AAPL closed at EXACTLY $500.00? What a shocker!

 

And who says there isn't manipulation going on?lol.gif

 

Anyway, I picked up a few more shares for 499.9999. Now, I just wait until Wednesday.1smoking.gif

 

I picked up another dozen shares, because well, what's the worst that could happen. :) Wednesday cannot come soon enough...

post #46 of 67
"one analyst attempted to ease investor concerns on Friday..."

Need I quote more? Same thing as the negative stuff. One bozo's opinion and not news nor worthy of republication.
post #47 of 67

Apple needs to surprise everyone.  A 5S in the same industrial design and screen size is going to kill them.  They could do this when android was well behind them. It is not enough anymore.  They have to surprise with a larger screen and hopefully some other whiz bang hardware/software to go along with it. Otherwise it will be a yawn for consumers and wall street.  Is apple blind to what is going on around them right now?  Samsung is moving fast.  Larger phones are dominating and Apple is just letting them walk away with this market.  At this point I hate to do the compare but can't see Jobs being this far behind the trend. 

 

Apple has a unique opportunity to do a smaller less expensive phone for emerging markets and cover the large phone factor and even a "phablet" before they cede that market too.

 

Last they must increase their ad spend.  Samsung outspent them 5 to 1 and it shows.  Everywhere I travel or look it is Samsung.  Apple seems to have no response to this.  They are losing mind share rapidly and the hearts of the younger generation.  My son has an iphone and all his friends wanted Samsung phones and got them instead.  They are all 14.  It was not this way just 1 to 2 years ago where they looked at his iphone with show and awe. 

 

All fixable by apple but they need to wake up and take action and stop moving half the speed as their competition.  You can only do that when you innovate and are at least a year or two ahead.  This is no longer the case.  Same thing is at risk in tablets.  They should experiment with a 12" ipad and if it works, great.  If it doesn't discontinue it.  Without Jobs you cannot operate like every release will be spot on.  They are going to have to throw stuff up at the wall and see what sticks.

post #48 of 67
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post
A 5S in the same industrial design and screen size is going to kill them.

 

If by "them" you mean "Android", yeah. 


They could do this when android was well behind them. It is not enough anymore.

 

Except the iPhone still outsells any Android model.


They have to…

 

Once again, I don't remember any time anyone has said this about Apple and been right.


Is apple blind to what is going on around them right now?

 

Are you blind to what is actually happening with sales?


Last they must increase their ad spend.

 

No. End of story. This isn't even a question or concern. Advertising is visual desperation. 


Samsung outspent them 5 to 1 and it shows.

 

It certainly shows they're desperate, yes.


Apple seems to have no response to this.

 

Spending that money to make better products is their response. Are you honestly claiming you want to see that changed?


They are losing mind share rapidly and the hearts of the younger generation.

 

Nonsense.


My son has an iphone and all his friends wanted Samsung phones and got them instead.  They are all 14.

 

Good. If you make your mistakes early enough in life, you'll be able to fix them before it's too late.


…wake up…

 

…sheeple.


Without Jobs you cannot operate like every release will be spot on.

 

They didn't do that when he was alive.


They are going to have to throw stuff up at the wall and see what sticks.

 

So in conclusion: be more like Samsung and Microsoft.

 

I'm very glad you have zero say in what Apple actually does.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply
post #49 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

Apple needs to surprise everyone.

There's not a day that goes by when Apple does not surprise me. Details on things of theirs I've had for years.

Seriously, Gruber (Daring Fireball) is completely dedicated to you and your argument today and some of yesterday. Even the Macalope he links to addresses your grievous concerns. I hope you will read what they say, and that you will quit saying stuff like this. Samsung does not show the way to the future. You are just surrounded by the wrong people and kids.There's a sucker for big screens born every minute.
post #50 of 67

That line of thinking was also brought up in the hey day of the netbook. You're suggesting Apple should react, follow, and play Samsung's game instead of gambling on their own ideas to succeed. How's that working out for HTC, Motorola, Sony, etc. since they also have comparable large screens. Next, you might even suggest Apple abandon iOS and use Android instead.

 

This was in response to mvigod.

post #51 of 67
Apple's share price is based on the fact that Apple's profit margins are by far the highest in the industry, especially in the mobile phone and tablet sectors.

The problem is, the market is moving towards hardware being sold at cost or at a loss (products like the galaxy tab which is now outselling iPad are a case in point), and content analytics web traffic being the sole profit source. Until Apple flips to this model and stabilizes revenue streams thereafter, there will be continuing volatility in the stock price.
post #52 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


The forum here does have a stupid filter that mangles 9to5 links. Is that what you mean, or the content of the report disagrees?

The 9to5 article has a pretty good explanation of what Google is actually saying, but yes I'm referring to the forum filter here.


Edited by Gatorguy - 1/19/13 at 12:42pm
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #53 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Apple's share price is based on the fact that Apple's profit margins are by far the highest in the industry, especially in the mobile phone and tablet sectors.

The problem is, the market is moving towards hardware being sold at cost or at a loss (products like the galaxy tab which is now outselling iPad are a case in point), and content analytics web traffic being the sole profit source. Until Apple flips to this model and stabilizes revenue streams thereafter, there will be continuing volatility in the stock price.

LOL. You seem to have missed a minor thing called the PC market in the past few decades!
post #54 of 67
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post
The problem is, the market is moving towards hardware being sold at cost or at a loss…

 

Yeah, well, we'll see how well that works for "the market" when they have zero money.


…the galaxy tab which is now outselling iPad…

 

Wait, should I be laughing here? It seems like I should be laughing at this.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #55 of 67

I'm frankly left shaking my head in amazement at the shocking reduction in level-headed discourse this comment section reveals. Is this what AppleInsider has sunk to? Belittling the use of the term "black ice" and the possibility that maybe, just maybe, Mr. Um knows what he's talking about? Seriously?

Let's take the term "black ice": It's a metaphor, and a good one, for hidden dangers. And the metaphor is just shorthand for that danger, which is real and meaningful if you but had the understanding to recognize it. Also, Mr. Um isn't alone in warning of the black ice. Robert Paul Leitao of postsateventide has been sounding the same warning for months now. Here's what he said back in October: "I expect the iPhone 5 and its new form factor to deliver strong sales for six months following introduction but at lower average gross margin than its predecessor during its first six months in the market.

 


Ergo, the term "black ice" is referring to a temporary patch of lower earnings just ahead. It is a call to cooler heads to remain calm and not be deterred by the inevitable calls for a hatchet job on Apple's stock price due to "submarining earnings". In other words, it's an important and timely warning, and should be treated as such and not as an object of ridicule by know-nothings and dunderheads.

 

I'm frankly disappointed in AppleInsider commenters. I've come to expect better of this forum.

post #56 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

I'm frankly left shaking my head in amazement at the shocking reduction in level-headed discourse this comment section reveals. Is this what AppleInsider has sunk to? Belittling the use of the term "black ice" and the possibility that maybe, just maybe, Mr. Um knows what he's talking about? Seriously?




Let's take the term "black ice": It's a metaphor, and a good one, for hidden dangers. And the metaphor is just shorthand for that danger, which is real and meaningful if you but had the understanding to recognize it. Also, Mr. Um isn't alone in warning of the black ice. Robert Paul Leitao of postsateventide has been sounding the same warning for months now. Here's what he said back in October: "
I expect the iPhone 5 and its new form factor to deliver strong sales for six months following introduction but at lower average gross margin than its predecessor during its first six months in the market.



Ergo, the term "black ice" is referring to a temporary patch of lower earnings just ahead. It is a call to cooler heads to remain calm and not be deterred by the inevitable calls for a hatchet job on Apple's stock price due to "submarining earnings". In other words, it's an important and timely warning, and should be treated as such and not as an object of ridicule by know-nothings and dunderheads.


I'm frankly disappointed in AppleInsider commenters. I've come to expect better of this forum.

If it takes that much to unpack the metaphor, then I suggest that it's a poorly chosen metaphor. Also, it's a phrase that's lost on half the US audience because they've not experienced it and had little need to know the phrase.
post #57 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


If it takes that much to unpack the metaphor, then I suggest that it's a poorly chosen metaphor. Also, it's a phrase that's lost on half the US audience because they've not experienced it and had little need to know the phrase.

Sir, with all due respect, that's a defense of the indefensible.

 

Regarding your first critique, half my post was focused on my opinion concerning the low calibre of comment. The portion relevant to "unpacking the metaphor", as you put it, was taken up by one paragraph consisting of three sentences. Hardly "that much".

 

I also referenced another individual of note as a corroboration of Mr. Um's POV. Again, not "that much".

 

Regarding your second critique, in this age of instant definition, literally anyone could find the definition of the term "black ice" in almost no time at all. From Wikipedia: "Black ice, sometimes called clear ice, refers to a thin coating of glazed ice on a surface."

 

I am being quite honest when I attack the majority of these comments as poorly thought out. Now, maybe this particular set of comments is atypical. I admit to not reading AppleInsider comments thoroughly of late due to personal time constraints. But when an article does in fact interest me sufficiently, I do read the comments. And frankly, this set of comments is far below what I'm used to reading in AppleInsider. And yes, that's simply my opinion. I express it because I think a great deal of AppleInsider, and believe that the quality of discourse in the comments section reflects directly on the attractiveness of AppleInsider to free thinkers such as myself.

post #58 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post

I want a dividend increase. I want to make more money while holding onto the stock. 1smile.gif


Apple should aggressively buy back the stock at these low prices. That would increase the value of each remaining stock.

post #59 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post


Apple should aggressively buy back the stock at these low prices. That would increase the value of each remaining stock.

Does Apple have the ability to buy back Apple shares with Options the way Al Gore did? That's a way they can buy a lot for a little if they can. My concern is the potential for any foul play but if a member of Apple's board can do it then I don't see why Apple themselves couldn't do it, but I admit this is beyond my ken, hence my query.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #60 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Does Apple have the ability to buy back Apple shares with Options the way Al Gore did? That's a way they can buy a lot for a little if they can. My concern is the potential for any foul play but if a member of Apple's board can do it then I don't see why Apple themselves couldn't do it, but I admit this is beyond my ken, hence my query.

Al Gore had an option to buy 60,000 shares. He's been on the board for a long time, and the option, which was granted years ago, allowed him to buy those shares at $7.48/share. It's no different than anyone else who has stock options in that regard. Here's a story about this: 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/al-gore-nets-another-fortune-164510966.html

 

To answer your question, Apple is responsible for giving those share to Mr. Gore, as with any option being exercised. In the past, Apple would simply print new shares. That, of course, has the effect of "diluting" the EPS (Earnings Per Share). However, early in 2012, Apple both started paying a dividend on shares and initiated a $10 billion, three year buyback program. The share buyback is intended specifically to end the dilution of shares.

 

Ergo, it makes no sense for Apple to print shares it gives back to itself. That would literally be taking money out of one pocket and putting it in another.

 

(Note: A "buyback" program that would more than balance options dilution would, in effect, require Apple to buy stock back on the open market at market prices. Some people (myself included), are urging Apple to do just that. We see it as a better "investment" than most alternatives, especially at the present depressed price, since by doing so Apple would in effect be investing in itself. However, there is a body of thought that this sends the wrong message to investors, because usually a stock buyback is done in an attempt to support the stock price. There are even some who say even the moderate stock buyback that Apple has already committed to is responsible for some of the recent decline in Apple stock. I'm inclined to discount that, seeing other forces as being much more likely to be behind the drop. These include: Unreasonably heightened expectation in advance of fy 2012 Q3 earnings; unreasonably lowered expectations in advance of fy 2013 Q1 earnings; a general pulldown on high earning stocks over irrational fears concerning the "fiscal cliff" and related cap gains tax issues; natural stock volatility following Apple's lowest earning quarter (fy 2012 Q4); and irrational fears stirred up by certain "interested parties" concerning things like the "law" of large numbers, advancing competition, and out of proportion attacks over relatively trivial errors like Apple Maps, etcetera.)

post #61 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Al Gore had an option to buy 60,000 shares. He's been on the board for a long time, and the option, which was granted years ago, allowed him to buy those shares at $7.48/share. It's no different than anyone else who has stock options in that regard. Here's a story about this: 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/al-gore-nets-another-fortune-164510966.html

To answer your question, Apple is responsible for giving those share to Mr. Gore, as with any option being exercised. In the past, Apple would simply print new shares. That, of course, has the effect of "diluting" the EPS (Earnings Per Share). However, early in 2012, Apple both started paying a dividend on shares and initiated a $10 billion, three year buyback program. The share buyback is intended specifically to end the dilution of shares.

Ergo, it makes no sense for Apple to print shares it gives back to itself. That would literally be taking money out of one pocket and putting it in another.

(Note: A "buyback" program that would more than balance options dilution would, in effect, require Apple to buy stock back on the open market at market prices. Some people (myself included), are urging Apple to do just that. We see it as a better "investment" than most alternatives, especially at the present depressed price, since by doing so Apple would in effect be investing in itself. However, there is a body of thought that this sends the wrong message to investors, because usually a stock buyback is done in an attempt to support the stock price. There are even some who say even the moderate stock buyback that Apple has already committed to is responsible for some of the recent decline in Apple stock. I'm inclined to discount that, seeing other forces as being much more likely to be behind the drop. These include: Unreasonably heightened expectation in advance of fy 2012 Q3 earnings; unreasonably lowered expectations in advance of fy 2013 Q1 earnings; a general pulldown on high earning stocks over irrational fears concerning the "fiscal cliff" and related cap gains tax issues; natural stock volatility following Apple's lowest earning quarter (fy 2012 Q4); and irrational fears stirred up by certain "interested parties" concerning things like the "law" of large numbers, advancing competition, and out of proportion attacks over relatively trivial errors like Apple Maps, etcetera.)

Thanks for the reply but I don't think I was clear enough. I was suggesting Apple create new shares but wondering if they could use strategic purchases to buyback shares at the reduced rate the way Al Gore et al. have done.

As for urging Apple it was last year they agreed to buy back $10B hence my comment.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #62 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Apple's share price is based on the fact that Apple's profit margins are by far the highest in the industry, especially in the mobile phone and tablet sectors.

The problem is, the market is moving towards hardware being sold at cost or at a loss (products like the galaxy tab which is now outselling iPad are a case in point), and content analytics web traffic being the sole profit source. Until Apple flips to this model and stabilizes revenue streams thereafter, there will be continuing volatility in the stock price.
Do yo have a source for #1 the Galaxy Tab outselling the iPad and #2 it being sold at cost or a loss? I wasn't aware that Samsung sold any of their mobile products for a loss. 1hmm.gif
post #63 of 67

boy. this whole thread feels like rehashing a lot of old BS. the trash talk. but Apple will announce great results next week - the story that really counts. but all the bashers and boo-birds and hit whores will just call it the beginning of the end ...

 

here's a perfect example of this idiocy:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/9813464/Sales-concern-to-eclipse-Apple-results.html

 

a stock market where Apple is down and Amazon is up is plainly being gamed, and/or is driven by fools. 'nuff said.

 

what does matter tho looking ahead is that Apple cannot stand still. it does need to keep up with the best features of its competition's products (e.g. add a simple touch UI to OS X for laptops?). and it does need to fill out its product line further (e.g., an iPhone mini?). and it does need to incorporate really useful new technologies (e.g. fingerprint passwords?). and it does need to bring really useful new products to market (e.g. the iOS watch?). and it does need to polish and expand the capabilities of what it has now (e.g., Siri and iCloud).

 

Apple did pretty good on the above factors in 2012, but not great. a year from now, what will really matter for the long term is how good a job Apple does with them again. can't stand still. and then again in 2014.

 

everything we saw in 2012 from Apple was initiated while Jobs was still alive. but 2013 will be the first year where much will have been conceived post-Jobs. so it will be the real test of the new Apple leadership team.


Edited by Alfiejr - 1/20/13 at 11:23am
post #64 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan:
 
Do yo have a source for #1 the Galaxy Tab outselling the iPad and #2 it being sold at cost or a loss? I wasn't aware that Samsung sold any of their mobile products for a loss. 1hmm.gif

 

 

There was one story about Android tablets gaing market share past iPads in Japan.

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57564407-37/google-nexus-7-tops-ipad-in-japan-is-this-a-trend/

 

Keep in mind, this was just in Japan and the study was a survey and not actual shipping numbers.

post #65 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheElectricChairRepairman View Post

 

 

There was one story about Android tablets gaing market share past iPads in Japan.

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57564407-37/google-nexus-7-tops-ipad-in-japan-is-this-a-trend/

 

Keep in mind, this was just in Japan and the study was a survey and not actual shipping numbers.

And the study seemed to exclude tablet sales at Apple stores.  

post #66 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Sir, with all due respect, that's a defense of the indefensible.

Sorry, if it takes that much to explain a metaphor, the point of using the metaphor is nullified, because not using the metaphor would have been simpler. Think of how a joke isn't funny if it has to be explained.

Not only that, I've not found the metaphor applied to stocks anywhere else.

I only see defending it as defending poor or at least, sub optimal writing.
Edited by JeffDM - 1/21/13 at 5:27am
post #67 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Thanks for the reply but I don't think I was clear enough. I was suggesting Apple create new shares but wondering if they could use strategic purchases to buyback shares at the reduced rate the way Al Gore et al. have done.

As for urging Apple it was last year they agreed to buy back $10B hence my comment.


Al Gore got the option to buy the shares 10 years back at the then price. That was the strategy. What apple can do now is that they can buy the shares at today's price.

 

The $10B repurchase is just to nullify dilution they do by issuing new shares.

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