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Apple Q1 2013 earnings preview: The pressure is on

post #1 of 55
Thread Starter 
Apple this Wednesday is expected to report record iPhone and iPad sales from the 2012 holiday season. But as investors are uncertain about the company's future, all eyes will be on CEO Tim Cook to ease those concerns.

Earnings


This Wednesday's earnings conference call has already been declared Apple's most important in a decade. The report arrives as AAPL stock has taken a significant hit in recent months, dipping below the $500 threshold.

The timing of Apple's selloff is particularly interesting, as the company just completed a holiday quarter that was likely the strongest in its history. Consensus calls for Apple to report $54.58 billion in revenue, which would be up from its previous record of $46.33 billion set in the holiday 2011 period.

But Apple's breakneck pace of growth has also shown signs of slowing. And new, cheaper products like the iPad mini have caused concern among investors that the company's gross margins will slip.

Rumors in recent weeks have also piled on the bad news for Apple, with claims that the company is cutting component orders for both its full-size 9.7-inch iPad as well as the new iPhone 5.

Investors hope that Cook will take the opportunity this week to address those recent rumors about waning demand for his company's products. Legally, Apple is unable to comment before Wednesday's earnings.

Earnings


Particular attention will also be paid to Apple's guidance for the March quarter. Any potential decreases in demand are expected to be seen in the company's second quarter of fiscal 2013, which is currently underway.

For the December quarter, investors have high hopes, with consensus calling for sales of 50 million iPhones and 23 million iPads. Those numbers would be up from sales of 37 million iPhones and 15 million iPads in the year-ago quarter.

But market watchers also expect Apple to sell 5 million Macs, down from 5.2 million a year ago. It's believed that production constraints with the new iMacs, particularly the 27-inch model, held back sales during the holiday shopping season.

iPod sales are also expected to fall from 15.4 million in the holiday 2011 season to 12 million at the end of 2012.

Margins for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 are expected to slide to 39.5 percent, affected by a major revamp of the company's nearly entire product lineup at the end of calendar 2012.

As for the March quarter, Wall Street consensus sees the company earning $46.9 billion in revenue with gross margins improving to 41.5 percent as production of new products improves.

Market watchers expect the company will sell 37.5 million iPhones, 18 million iPads, 4.2 million Macs, and 6 million iPods.

Earnings
Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer.


What's not expected from Cook and other Apple executives this week are comments on rumors that the company plans to expand the iPhone lineup this year in an effort to ward off less expensive handsets running Google's Android platform. Some rumors have claimed Apple will launch a low-cost iPhone this year designed to be sold contract-free in emerging markets such as China.

However, Apple is a notoriously secretive company that does not talk about its future product pipeline. Questions about rumors and future products asked by analysts during the company's earnings calls are routinely shot down by Cook and Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer.

Apple will report earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 this Wednesday after the market closes. The company will follow up with a conference call with analysts and the media at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the event.
post #2 of 55
Apple earnings will blow away expectations.

Apple sold everything that they made and could not keep up with demands.
post #3 of 55
When will AppleInsider change that narcissistic thread started by 'Kasper's Automated Slave' and replace it with the authors' name?

Oh yeah, the topic at hand. Hmm, nothing to say till Wednesday; speculate all you want but no one will ever get it right; close at best.
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post #4 of 55
I imagine that, as usual, analysts will once again express disappointment at Apple's failure to invent time travel or cure cancer.
post #5 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSauce007 View Post

Apple earnings will blow away expectations.

Apple sold everything that they made and could not keep up with demands.

But there were some supply restrictions, as well.

Frankly, I don't know if Apple's going to beat expectations or, if they do, by how much. And I really don't care. Even if Apple's profits were HALF of what they are, the share price is too low. Their cash adjusted forward P/E is in the low 7s - which is totally ridiculous for the performance they've been generating.
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #6 of 55
OMFG. Margins will slip to 39%? How can a company survive on such razor thin margins /S
post #7 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


But there were some supply restrictions, as well.

Frankly, I don't know if Apple's going to beat expectations or, if they do, by how much. And I really don't care. Even if Apple's profits were HALF of what they are, the share price is too low. Their cash adjusted forward P/E is in the low 7s - which is totally ridiculous for the performance they've been generating.


If Apple doesn't meet or beat expectations the share price might suffer... but that's just a buying opportunity. Apple's problems are problems that all companies would love to have... too much demand for too little product... and that's fixable (the opposite is also fixable but infinitely harder to do).

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post #8 of 55

Analysts: If they do not do well, they must be in a death spiral. If they do well, there is nowhere to go but down.

 

A twist on an old saying: Continuing to make lots of money is the best revenge.

post #9 of 55
iOS used to save the day, and maybe it still does, although it won't last forever. The Mac is the real value in the long term.
post #10 of 55

I like the way these stupid articles are always phrased as if the investors are actually important and that Apple should actually listen to what they say or do what they want to do.  This has to be one of the biggest myths of Capitalism in general.

 

"The pressure is on!!!" Is it?  Why does Apple have to please anyones (seriously mistaken and poorly thought out) expectations?  Have they ever been right before?  Why do they *have* to hit performance measures that are just inexpertly calculated guesses by outsiders who don't even have access to the companies basic financial information?  

 

Especially in the case of Apple, if they actually did this (do what the investors want or expect), they would be  POS company headed rapidly for the toilet.  

 

Apple will keep on running itself the way it wants and you can invest or not.  The day they actually care about the investors and stock holders and what they think about anything is the day you'll know the ride is over and you should sell all your Apple stock.  

post #11 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSauce007 View Post

Apple earnings will blow away expectations.

Apple sold everything that they made and could not keep up with demands.
 

Let's just not hope it's because of production problems, e.g. the iMac

 

 

41.5% margins for the next quarter? I don't think so. Apple has stated that margins are going down in the past, and if these analysts are saying the iPad mini is going to take some share away from the full sized iPad, (and mac mini production will go to the US?) I don't think margins are going to go back up. This will be one of the excuses for poor outlook.

 

Really hoping that they'll hint at what's coming to help with the share price. Apple is going to be fine, but this huge drop in the share price isn't good for he company image IMO (or my savings).

post #12 of 55
"But as investors are uncertain about the company's future"

Who, what, how, ....what the f... are you talking about?
post #13 of 55
Wow. These estimates have not come down at all, or maybe gone even higher, as the stock drops from $705 to $495.

WOW. So if they miss expectations, obviously the stock should drop further?

This makes no sense. Big disconnect between wall street guesses, I mean estimates, vs. the stock performance.
post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

iOS used to save the day, and maybe it still does, although it won't last forever. The Mac is the real value in the long term.

 

Do you honestly believe that? Do you even have an inkling of how small Apple's Mac sales/revenues/profit compare to their iOS line? Do you honestly believe the mac is the 'future' of Apple? Do you realize that mac sales are pretty much flat, compared to the exponential growth of the iPhone/iPad? Do you suddenly expect this trend to reverse, and one day for Mac sales to just suddenly explode while iOS sales shrink?  I'm actually curious, because if someone sincerely believed this, I'd find it stunning. 

post #15 of 55

Some pretty solid thinking on Apple, that cuts through the noise/bs, here: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/04/apple-holding-versus-folding.html

post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

iOS used to save the day, and maybe it still does, although it won't last forever. The Mac is the real value in the long term.

Do you honestly believe that? Do you even have an inkling of how small Apple's Mac sales/revenues/profit compare to their iOS line? Do you honestly believe the mac is the 'future' of Apple? Do you realize that mac sales are pretty much flat, compared to the exponential growth of the iPhone/iPad? Do you suddenly expect this trend to reverse, and one day for Mac sales to just suddenly explode while iOS sales shrink?  I'm actually curious, because if someone sincerely believed this, I'd find it stunning. 

I actually have to side with you on this one, at least on the surface. The opportunity with Macs is to go against all of the cloud BS and manage things on your own. Paying $10-20/month for an online storage system is silly if you have a fast pipe and unlimited data on your internet pipe... but, it saves the hassle of dealing with local security. (Instead, it gives up any and all sense of security on the shared data.) Arguably, Apple should focus on an appliance line of computers that solve specific problems for people and work well together, but don't try to be an end-all, be-all for everyone.
post #17 of 55
We all know Wall Street is a casino. Their wish list is nothing shy of insanity. The consumer can only buy so much. So when Apple or any other public company doesn't measure up they crucify them. It is insane!! Wall Street makes these bets ahead of time and then puts the full court pressure on these companies prior to earning reports.
In the end Wall Street could even get Tim kicked out, find another CEO. Happens all the time.
Look at Palm. Company was broken up into hardware and software then finally sold off to them clowns at HP.
Bottom line: Greed.
post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Some pretty solid thinking on Apple, that cuts through the noise/bs, here: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/04/apple-holding-versus-folding.html

I used to say that there was no reason for a stock split, but I've changed my mind. About 68%$ of AAPL shares are owned by institutions - compared to something like 12% of all stocks. Institutions are far too likely to play "must sell to lock in gains before year end" games as well as other short term thinking. AAPL should split 10:1 so that individuals find it a more accessible stock.

Of course, the SEC needs to investigate for manipulation, as well. It is just not plausible to me that the endless negativism hasn't been fed by people with a vested interest in seeing the stock fall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dm3 View Post

Wow. These estimates have not come down at all, or maybe gone even higher, as the stock drops from $705 to $495.

WOW. So if they miss expectations, obviously the stock should drop further?

This makes no sense. Big disconnect between wall street guesses, I mean estimates, vs. the stock performance.

There has always been such a disconnect. There was a report a year or two ago that showed that Apple consistently beat its guidance by around 10-15% - yet the analysts were always surprised when Apple failed to meet their insane lofty estimates.

Not to mention that in the climate that has been generated about AAPL, even trivial negative news makes the stock drop by unreasonable amounts. Some of the big analysts said on Friday after close that Apple's iPhone sales were still strong - and the stock went up about 0.3 points. After this story hits the street, the stock is down 4.5 points. Negativism sells - and causes people to sell.
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post #19 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
Even if Apple's profits were HALF of what they are, the share price is too low. Their cash adjusted forward P/E is in the low 7s - which is totally ridiculous for the performance they've been generating.
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
If Apple doesn't meet or beat expectations the share price might suffer... but that's just a buying opportunity.
Originally Posted by JollyPaul View Post
Analysts: If they do not do well, they must be in a death spiral. If they do well, there is nowhere to go but down.

A twist on an old saying: Continuing to make lots of money is the best revenge.

Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

I like the way these stupid articles are always phrased as if the investors are actually important and that Apple should actually listen to what they say or do what they want to do.  This has to be one of the biggest myths of Capitalism in general.

 

"The pressure is on!!!" Is it?  Why does Apple have to please anyones (seriously mistaken and poorly thought out) expectations?  The day they actually care about the investors and stock holders and what they think about anything is the day you'll know the ride is over and you should sell all your Apple stock.  

 

 

Maybe Apple's long term target for acquisition is, itself.  Buying itself removes the influence of large investors who may not have the company's long-term welfare at heart.

 

I, being cynical, feel the share price will then rapidly rise to reflect its true value when such a move is announced...

post #20 of 55

The Pressure is on?

 

We're talking about last quarter's totals. What pressure? The only pressure is future productivity, not past productivity.

post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakime View Post

"But as investors are uncertain about the company's future"

Who, what, how, ....what the f... are you talking about?

 

Yes, don't you know that Apple's future is tenuous?      How dare Apple mismanage the company to have a record quarter and (by September) $156 billion in cash.     What incompetency!    When Apple can't keep products in stock, the market panics (supply chain problems).   When Apple can keep products in stock, the market panics (demand must be down).        

 

Analysts complain that Apple's products aren't inexpensive enough and yet when Apple releases new products with slightly lower margins, they freak out.     They expect Apple to do something that no company has ever done:   release a totally new type of product every year.  Most companies are thrilled to have done this once in the life of the company and most will never do it at all.   Apple has done it with the iPod, iPhone and iPad.      Furthermore, when Apple creates a new product category and then competitors swarm in, analysts panic because Apple no longer carries a monopoly in the market.    Well gee whiz, you mean Apple has to compete and it won't have 100% of the market?   The horrors.    

 

My bet is that Apple announces a record quarter, the stock rises 3% for one day and then falls back.     If it falls back much more, Apple should simply start buying back its own shares.    Apple's stock price fall from $700 to $500 demonstrates that analysts and investors have no idea what they're doing.   Is Apple worth 29% less than it was when it was $700?    Ridiculous.  Maybe those analysts and investors disappointed with Apple should buy Facebook. 

post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

I like the way these stupid articles are always phrased as if the investors are actually important and that Apple should actually listen to what they say or do what they want to do.  This has to be one of the biggest myths of Capitalism in general.

 

"The pressure is on!!!" Is it?  Why does Apple have to please anyones (seriously mistaken and poorly thought out) expectations?  Have they ever been right before?  Why do they *have* to hit performance measures that are just inexpertly calculated guesses by outsiders who don't even have access to the companies basic financial information?  

 

Especially in the case of Apple, if they actually did this (do what the investors want or expect), they would be  POS company headed rapidly for the toilet.  

 

Apple will keep on running itself the way it wants and you can invest or not.  The day they actually care about the investors and stock holders and what they think about anything is the day you'll know the ride is over and you should sell all your Apple stock.  

exactly right. as if the day traders and stock manipulators of Wall Street are the jury that issues the ultimate verdict about what's real. if that is what you think, buy Amazon and get what you deserve.

 

instead of us - consumers - who really make the choice that counts one at a time. or, to sum that up if you will, the marketplace. not the rumors, the bullshit surveys, the trash talk, and the pundits' intellectual masturbation that the web echo chamber has become addicted to. just the sales facts, which Apple provides routinely every three months. while most of its competitors - much hyped by Wall Street and the web, like Samsung and MS - don't even dare do that.

post #23 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

 

Yes, don't you know that Apple's future is tenuous?      How dare Apple mismanage the company to have a record quarter and (by September) $156 billion in cash.     What incompetency!    When Apple can't keep products in stock, the market panics (supply chain problems).   When Apple can keep products in stock, the market panics (demand must be down).        

 

Analysts complain that Apple's products aren't inexpensive enough and yet when Apple releases new products with slightly lower margins, they freak out.     They expect Apple to do something that no company has ever done:   release a totally new type of product every year.  Most companies are thrilled to have done this once in the life of the company and most will never do it at all.   Apple has done it with the iPod, iPhone and iPad.      Furthermore, when Apple creates a new product category and then competitors swarm in, analysts panic because Apple no longer carries a monopoly in the market.    Well gee whiz, you mean Apple has to compete and it won't have 100% of the market?   The horrors.    

 

My bet is that Apple announces a record quarter, the stock rises 3% for one day and then falls back.     If it falls back much more, Apple should simply start buying back its own shares.    Apple's stock price fall from $700 to $500 demonstrates that analysts and investors have no idea what they're doing.   Is Apple worth 29% less than it was when it was $700?    Ridiculous.  Maybe those analysts and investors disappointed with Apple should buy Facebook. 

This is it right here. This post is exactly right.

 

"AAPL you have to release cheaper product."

 

Then ..

 

"AAPL, why are your margins dwindling?"

 

Then ..

 

"Steve Jobs blah blah blah.."

 

I just want Cook to come on and end the call and say (yes with expletives) "Eff all of you analysts. Eff all you stock manipulators. And eff all your "sources." You don't know spit about what we do or what we're going to do. Stop effin trying." Then just hang up.

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post #24 of 55

"And new, cheaper products like the iPad mini have caused concern among investors that the company's gross margins will slip."

 

Yet those same investors reward companies with almost nonexistent margins who sell cheap, bottom of the barrel knockoffs. And those same investors reward companies who lose money (Amazon). Go figure.

 

One thing we know for sure. No matter how great Apple's quarter was it will be characterized as a disappointing failure. For whatever reason the powers that be in the stock market have decided to cut AAPL down to size. I mean how long could a consumer electronics company have more market capitalization than an oil company. It never made much sense anyway. Hopefully, when AAPL is down to a more reasonable price the harping will stop. But the trolls will claim victory and declare Apple dead and buried, finis. 

post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

 

[...] Do you suddenly expect this trend to reverse, and one day for Mac sales to just suddenly explode while iOS sales shrink?  I'm actually curious, because if someone sincerely believed this, I'd find it stunning. 

 

Nope. What I said is that iOS success isn't going to last forever. The second part of the equation (Mac sales exploding) is unlikely -and I didn't say that- because Apple has neglected the Mac, so you can't expect to get revenue when you don't invest on your real assets. I did say, however, that the Mac is a far more solid value in the long term (and this is fact, you just cannot compare the strength of a computer whose adoption has been increasing and increasing for decades -just see the % of OSX web users-, to the explosive success of a toy with just a 5-year life), but, of course, no matter how strong a long-term value, if you neglect it, you trash it.

post #26 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

iOS used to save the day, and maybe it still does, although it won't last forever. The Mac is the real value in the long term.

 

In a parallel universe maybe. Not in this one.

post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I used to say that there was no reason for a stock split, but I've changed my mind. About 68%$ of AAPL shares are owned by institutions - compared to something like 12% of all stocks. Institutions are far too likely to play "must sell to lock in gains before year end" games as well as other short term thinking. AAPL should split 10:1 so that individuals find it a more accessible stock.

Of course, the SEC needs to investigate for manipulation, as well. It is just not plausible to me that the endless negativism hasn't been fed by people with a vested interest in seeing the stock fall.
There has always been such a disconnect. There was a report a year or two ago that showed that Apple consistently beat its guidance by around 10-15% - yet the analysts were always surprised when Apple failed to meet their insane lofty estimates.

Not to mention that in the climate that has been generated about AAPL, even trivial negative news makes the stock drop by unreasonable amounts. Some of the big analysts said on Friday after close that Apple's iPhone sales were still strong - and the stock went up about 0.3 points. After this story hits the street, the stock is down 4.5 points. Negativism sells - and causes people to sell.

Google is 88% institution owned. No manipulation there. No stock split is necessary. Why would you want to decrease the value of stock? Investors should have gotten on the wagon 7 yrs ago if they wanted a "cheap" price. I don't know why analysts have to make up estimates when they can just look at the company's guidance.
post #28 of 55

Those ANALysts' estimates and guidance are still way too high.  Apple will not beat those estimates and guidance.  Clearly the street wants to keep pounding the stock.

post #29 of 55
What
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

Nope. What I said is that iOS success isn't going to last forever. The second part of the equation (Mac sales exploding) is unlikely -and I didn't say that- because Apple has neglected the Mac, so you can't expect to get revenue when you don't invest on your real assets. I did say, however, that the Mac is a far more solid value in the long term (and this is fact, you just cannot compare the strength of a computer whose adoption has been increasing and increasing for decades -just see the % of OSX web users-, to the explosive success of a toy with just a 5-year life), but, of course, no matter how strong a long-term value, if you neglect it, you trash it.
What are you talking about? The iphone business is worth more than MS. The iPhone is 5+ years old and is still selling like hot cakes. People replace phones every 2-3 yrs. people replace Macs every 4-7 years. The just refreshed the Mac line so how are they ignoring it.
post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

Maybe those analysts and investors disappointed with Apple should buy Facebook. 

That will most certainly disappoint them!
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

OMFG. Margins will slip to 39%? How can a company survive on such razor thin margins /S

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post #31 of 55
Why isn't every single one of these reports an example of how

THE ANALYSTS FAILED YET AGAIN TO COME WITH ACCURATE PREDICTIONS

I expect to win the lottery every time I play and yet every time I lose I don't blame the lottery for failing the meet my expectations (well, okay a little bit).
post #32 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSauce007 View Post

Apple earnings will blow away expectations.

On the contrary. The earnings will be far below expectation and the analysts will be all over how Apple is doomed and they were right that Apple is nothing without Steve, etc

Forget that they take Apple's reasonable guidance that is based on real data about past sales and upcoming plans as too conservative and give out expectations pulled from their posterior orifices that are 4-5 times Apple's guidance and based on reading tea leaves and dog poop.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

Let's just not hope it's because of production problems, e.g. the iMac

 

 

41.5% margins for the next quarter? I don't think so. Apple has stated that margins are going down in the past, and if these analysts are saying the iPad mini is going to take some share away from the full sized iPad, (and mac mini production will go to the US?) I don't think margins are going to go back up. This will be one of the excuses for poor outlook.

 

Really hoping that they'll hint at what's coming to help with the share price. Apple is going to be fine, but this huge drop in the share price isn't good for he company image IMO (or my savings).

 

 

Daringfireball posted an article about how the big time traders would make a killing on options if Apple closed at $500 on 1/21/13. This was based on an article from November of 2012. Sure enough the stock on Friday closed at exactly $500. The fix was in. It doesn't matter what Apple does. The Street will spin it either positively or negatively, which ever way is needed to make money. So Apple could smash Street records, and the stock could still lose money. The previous mentioned article made it seem now if the stock raises again, some of the big wigs will make money. 

 

As for production problems, that certainly could be a concern meeting numbers, but it wouldn't matter if the Street wants the stock to go up. Apple will say something like the problems have been addressed, and the money players will cheer. Of course, if the Street wants the stock to tank, production issues will make the stock drop. 

 

Apple's margins always fluctuate. Apple experienced the same iPad Mini taking big brother iPad sales problem when it released the iPod Nano, which caused the sales of the original iPad to take a beating. Apple will manage margins like it always does: taking advantage of buying in bulk, investing in partners, and benefiting from the decrease of component prices. So, I don't see Apple's margins continuing to drop. It will sink resources into the Mini, and benefit from economies of sale. 

post #34 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Google is 88% institution owned. No manipulation there. No stock split is necessary. Why would you want to decrease the value of stock? Investors should have gotten on the wagon 7 yrs ago if they wanted a "cheap" price. I don't know why analysts have to make up estimates when they can just look at the company's guidance.

Google is 83% Institution owned, not 88%. And, frankly, I couldn't care less about Google.

As for decreasing the value of the stock, you're imagining things. On paper, a 10:1 split does not affect the stock value by one penny. However, it brings new investors into the fold (people who don't want to buy stocks in $500 chunks, but are willing to do so in $50 chunks). As long as that number is greater than zero, you have increased demand and no increase in supply - which would increase the share price.

More importantly, as I've already stated, heavy institutional ownership makes the stock subject to manipulation. For example, mutual funds have so much pressure to show gains by year end that December is a disaster for many stocks that have one well during the year. It also opens the possibility of direct manipulation - companies which own stock emphasizing the negative or the positive (whichever benefits them personally). Even without illegal market manipulation, it certainly creates a conflict of interest.

Individual investors are less likely to be able to accomplish that (who cares if John Doe at 123 Main Street says he's selling his Apple stock?).
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #35 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


... pulled from their posterior orifices that are 4-5 times Apple's guidance and based on reading tea leaves and dog poop.

 

I heard a guy the other day reading dog poop on his shoe. It wasn't pretty.

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post #36 of 55
There's all these rumors about Dell going private. Man some days I wish it was Apple that was going private. It's the most manipulated stock on the planet.
post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

Nope. What I said is that iOS success isn't going to last forever. The second part of the equation (Mac sales exploding) is unlikely -and I didn't say that- because Apple has neglected the Mac, so you can't expect to get revenue when you don't invest on your real assets. I did say, however, that the Mac is a far more solid value in the long term (and this is fact, you just cannot compare the strength of a computer whose adoption has been increasing and increasing for decades -just see the % of OSX web users-, to the explosive success of a toy with just a 5-year life), but, of course, no matter how strong a long-term value, if you neglect it, you trash it.

Ah, but you are misunderstanding the upheaval in the computer industry. People have made that mistake before. Minicomputers would never become a serious computing platform because they could not do what mainframes could do, and they would fade away. Workstations couldn't do what minicomputers could do, and so they would fade away. Microcomputers would never be taken seriously because they were toys that couldn't do any real work. Laptops were useless because they were so much less powerful than desktops, that they would never be used for real work. Notebooks were not usable for business or other serious computing tasks because they weren't as powerful as laptops. And, of course, tablets are just another fad and toy, and will fade away after a few years, and notebooks will, again, become the primary computer used for work and play.

Yup, you sure don't understand the computing industry.

It was estimated that by 2015, tablet sales would overtake all laptop sales for that year. Now, they are saying it will happen this year. The numbers are there. We're not talking about netbooks, which were mainly a child of the Recession. This is very different. I can already do work on my iPad that I could just barely do 10 years ago on my Powermac. In two or three years, the iPad will be several times as powerful as it is now. Heck, my iPhone 5 is more powerful than the fastest G4 laptop Apple manufactured. In another year or so, the newest iPhone and iPad will be more powerful than the earlier generations of Intel laptops, and the earlier Intel Mac Pro machines.

Things are changing for sure. The largest companies and government agencies are abandoning their notebooks for tens of thousands of iPads. This doesn't indicate a fad, even if you may want to think so.
post #38 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecs View Post

 

Nope. What I said is that iOS success isn't going to last forever. The second part of the equation (Mac sales exploding) is unlikely -and I didn't say that- because Apple has neglected the Mac, so you can't expect to get revenue when you don't invest on your real assets. I did say, however, that the Mac is a far more solid value in the long term (and this is fact, you just cannot compare the strength of a computer whose adoption has been increasing and increasing for decades -just see the % of OSX web users-, to the explosive success of a toy with just a 5-year life), but, of course, no matter how strong a long-term value, if you neglect it, you trash it.


I'm sorry, how how the hell has Apple 'neglected the Mac'? This is such an absurd, ridiculous, lazy meme that people with no sense of context, history, or perspective parrot. The Mac has seen more significant changes this year than in any previous year. Macbook Pros rebuilt from the ground up, with a screen resolution and quality unheard of in the industry. iMac completely redesigned, utterly pushing the envelope of whats possible in industrial design. What about software? Apple has moved to major yearly OSX updates, and OSX has seen more user facing changes and improvements in the past year than the last several years, with OSX/iOS integration completely changing dynamic between the different hardware. I expect the new OSX to be previewed in the near future, and the pace of OSX development is quicker than its ever been. Apple hasn't 'neglected' the Mac, it still takes it extremely seriously and is continually investing in the product lines.  However, the reality, no matter how childishly you choose to denigrate them as toys, is that ultra easy to use mobile touch hardware with the future. Believe it or not, people don't really care about buying a phone/tablet that will last 10 years, and if you had a shred of insight into the pace of technology, you'd realize how assinine that request is, with ANY form of technology.  How long of a 'shelf life' should a device have? My original 2007 iPhone still works perfectly. So does every single one after that. Should Apple have time travelled into the future and brought back today's chips, to make sure these devices are infinitely capable for an infinite amount of time? What exactly do you expect? Magic?

 

Why do you think Windows 8 is simply Windows 7 with a touch layer thrown on top, and shoved onto all hardware regardless of touch capabilities? I'd say Apple is respecting OSX much more seriously, and respecting what it is- a desktop OS. If they shoved touch panels onto Macs, would you then say they're not neglecting them? Or if they made Macs giant iOS machines? No, you'd be raging further. The truth is you have no idea what you actually want, and just lazily spout talking points like 'neglecting the mac' when this couldn't be further from the truth, when one actually objectively looks at the reality. If they were 'neglecting' them the MBP wouldn't still be the best and most advanced laptop on the planet. 

post #39 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Google is 83% Institution owned, not 88%. And, frankly, I couldn't care less about Google.

As for decreasing the value of the stock, you're imagining things. On paper, a 10:1 split does not affect the stock value by one penny. However, it brings new investors into the fold (people who don't want to buy stocks in $500 chunks, but are willing to do so in $50 chunks). As long as that number is greater than zero, you have increased demand and no increase in supply - which would increase the share price.

More importantly, as I've already stated, heavy institutional ownership makes the stock subject to manipulation. For example, mutual funds have so much pressure to show gains by year end that December is a disaster for many stocks that have one well during the year. It also opens the possibility of direct manipulation - companies which own stock emphasizing the negative or the positive (whichever benefits them personally). Even without illegal market manipulation, it certainly creates a conflict of interest.

Individual investors are less likely to be able to accomplish that (who cares if John Doe at 123 Main Street says he's selling his Apple stock?).

Apple is the stock most owned by hedge funds.
post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post


Apple is the stock most owned by hedge funds.

So that means that while individual stockholders were selling over the past 4 years of gains, hedge funds have held and bought more, leaving them the only ones who still believe in the long term for Apple.

 

I suggest a reverse split of 10:1 to get the stock price up high enough so Apple is no longer held by the fickle individual shareholders who just are there trying to make a quick buck.


Gee, when you forget about who you are being told to hate, it sure is easy to see an argument FOR institutional owners, isn't there?  Or did you think they came to hold 70% of outstanding shares in some way other than buying, buying, and buying while others were selling?

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