Apple's iOS retains top spot in US with over 51% share of smartphone OS sales for Q4 2012 - Page 2

RiM has pushed any new models out in the last year? Not that I ever bought anything from them, but I don't remember seeing any announcement. If they haven't, it might stand to reason that they're not selling much.

Foxconn has a factory in Brazil now, how did that not end these high import tariffs?  They were at least making the iPhone 4 there and the price never seemed to drop.  Anyone know why not?  Has anyone heard about if they're making 5's there now?

Surely no former RIM customer bought an Android phone the last year 

Hmm...maybe I was thinking of a different quarter. But I do remember after the blowout numbers the analysts on CNBC saying its not all about AT&T and Verizon anymore.

 

This is the important part of these numbers. Verizon users had no choice for a few years, and a bunch got suckered into Android over the past couple, but now that their contracts are up, they are switching to iPhone. Fewer AT&T customers got suckered into buying Android phones, but they are switching too. Consumers, as opposed to Apple hating geeks, just don't love Android. And, with no significant financial investment in the Android ecosystem, there's nothing holding them back.

 

This is what "winning!" looks like.

Both of the bolded statements are wrong. Within sampling error, 53% and 51% are indistinguishable and the 0.5% "drop" in Android is simply noise. I didn't look it up, but the margin of error is typically a few percent in surveys like this.

However, sampling error is small compared to the real error in surveys like these. The biggest problem is finding a representative sample. Unless they're VERY careful to choose a sample that's representative of the population as a whole and equally covers all sub-groups, the results may have little or no meaning at all. You also have to be careful to understand the group being represented (such as being careful not to compare US results to global results).

Then, of course, keep in mind that different surveys conducted by different groups will often give different results (due to the different methodologies and differences in selecting the sample group).

In the end, small differences (a few percent) are probably meaningless and unless you have hard numbers (which only Apple provides), any results should be taken with a grain of salt. Finally, to get a clearer picture, one should gather information from a wide variety of sources using different methodologies and see if there is a general trend. If several different groups using entirely different methodologies reach the same conclusions, there's a greater chance that it's real than if a single group posts a result like this.

 

Bear in mind that sales and activations are not the same thing.  

 

Activations include hand-me-down, used phones as well.   Activations do not include phones that were sold, but given as gifts that have not been activated yet.

 

The difference between activation numbers and sales numbers has historically been anywhere from 10 - 20%.   

Edited by KDarling - 1/22/13 at 4:32am

 

 

 

The fact that the report doesn't make a basic fact like this straightforward and obvious tells that it -- or perhaps AI's reporting of it -- isn't worth the paper it's written on.

A little more digging into the numbers raises an interesting observation.

If we look at only AT&T and Verizon (where OS share was broken down), iOS has 66.9% vs 28.9% for Android. In order for the numbers to work out for the market as a whole, iOS must have 21% of all other carriers and Android 73% (note that the other OSs fare better on the smaller carriers than at AT&T or Verizon).

For some of the smaller carriers (i.e., anyone but AT&T and Verizon), it is difficult to use an iPhone and it is not an easy choice. For example, at Straight Talk, the iPhone 5 was not even supported during the period of this survey. To use an iPhone 5, you needed to buy a SIM (which must be done by mail order since they don't sell them in Straight Talk outlets), cut it down with a razor blade or SIM cutter, and then, if you didn't buy an unlocked phone, jailbreak your phone. Clearly, fewer users are going to do that than the percentage who will just walk into an AT&T store and buy an iPhone that they can immediately start using.

So where given an easy choice (you can walk out today with a working iPhone or a working Android phone) at AT&T or Verizon, iOS has more than twice the share of Android. Android gains ground (about 3.5:1) at stores and carriers that do not support iOS directly.

I realize you're trying to be sarcastic, but what your post shows is that you can't interpret basic arithmetic.

 

If Apple can sustain this market share of sales, the actual market share of 'users' will drift over time to match that- so eventually Apple would erode Androids 60ish percent to Apples 40ish percent share in the US (less in the rest of the world).  You have to take the 'skewtistics' with a grain of salt and look at them from a distance.  I think this site had data that showed of those Apple phone buyers, only slightly over 20% were new buyers.  Apple users love their phones and rush out to buy new ones.  That is great for Apple sales, but generally doesn't result in more real market share (a small percent will be given as hand me downs or cheap resales ).  The other factor is bias.  Remember the prior quarter when Android sales were I think over 70% share.  Android fans jumped up and down saying zomg Android dominance!  Reality:  Apple users were waiting for the iPhone 5.  Duh.  The same thing applies for the iPhone 5.  All those people that waited bought their iPhones this quarter- so of course Apple gets a big spike with every major release and usually a smaller but visible spike on minor upgrades.  So the key is if Apple can sustain this market share now that the rush for the 5 is over.  I think they may have a chance of holding on somewhat but will drop below 50% sales share this quarter.  That will likely be slightly inflated by the fact that everyone knows the Galaxy IV is around the corner.  Same thing as the iPhone 5 effect but to a lesser extent.  Samsungs flagship Galaxy III sales are likely to dip at some point on anticipation.

 

Keep in mind the numbers reflect sales market share- not true sales.  The smartphone market is just getting out of the 'booming' territory and moving into the 'growing nicely' range.  Two years ago, growth: 86%!  One year ago: 45%!  That's crazy.  In two years the market size more than grew to more than two and a half times its starting size.  That's why both fan sites of Android and Apple continually post the most meaningless thing that sounds great as a headline:  "Record sales for Android!!!"  "Record sales for Apple!!!!"  In a market growing 45% per year if you don't continually outsell your last model and achieve new records you are doing something very very wrong.  This year I think expectation is around 30+%  That's the real trend that makes me worry about Apple's share price.  I'm not worried about Apple itself- they build great products and have a ton of cash- they are going to continue to do well- I do believe once the 'land rush' growth is over for smartphones we'll enter the competition phase.  At that point its not sales that will hurt Apple but margins.  That is the real elephant in the room for Apples share price despite decent sales.

 

It is hard for large companies to 'double' or 'quadruple' their share value.  That is exactly what they did to become a large company- but there's a point where its not sustainable.  At its peak analysts drove Apple's peak value to $660B.  Think about that.  That is the GDP of Switzerland.  Is that really a rational valuation of Apple?  And to the fans expecting it to double or quadraple yet again.... Really?   You think Apple is doing so well is should be valued at the GDP of Russia??  Apple hasn't been able to keep up with analysts overzealous valuation and it has dropped to prices that more reflect its actual performance.  If they let their margins drop that is going to be like a bug zapper for their share price (again, Apple itself will continue to have great products and do more than just survive- but I see limited chances of the stock doubling from its peak value, and much more opportunity for it to fall.  I think the new this quarter will be good and it may take a temporary jump upward).  

 

Thats all as it stands now.  Apple has a habit of coming out with something great every few years.  Analysts expect that and inflate Apples valuation accordingly.  The more bullish analysts build that in to their estimates and believe Apple is due to step up and hit another home run.  Apples shares could really use that now.  Whether its their iTV or watch or something completely surprising its always fun to watch Apple come up with something new and great.

 

Bear in mind that attempting to deny reality doesn't change it.

Um... yes. Lots of people have "thought about that," and for many, many rational reasons based on facts and fundamentals, it is, indeed, a rational valuation of Apple.

 

If anything, many rational investors, using the same facts and fundamentals, would argue that $660B it is an undervaluation of Apple.

 

Add: Btw, despite the fact that people do it all the time, it makes no conceptual sense to compare a 'flow' variable (like GDP) with a 'level' variable (like stock prices or asset value). This is like arguing "Bill Gates is worth $50B, and that just is too much, because it's many multiples of Tim Cook's annual earnings of $400M...."

Edited by anantksundaram - 1/22/13 at 5:36am

What reality is he denying?

 

It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.

Verizon reported results this morning. Anyone see iPhone sales figures? I couldn't find anything on their website.

 

If my purpose was to address the numbers in the title report, then I would've done so.

 

My post simply pointed out that, no matter what reports are used to make someone's case, they need to use the same math units.

 

Your posts show that you're not only paranoid and some kind of stalker, you also don't understand math concepts.

OK. I didn't read it that way. But perhaps it's just a matter of interpretation.

 

Or just questions the number, which is perfectly alright.

 

"Never trust a statistics you didn't forge yourself."

 

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/US-iOS-Maintains-Lead-Among-US-Smartphone-OS-Sales

 

You're welcome!

So Verizon said on their conference call that they activated 6.2 million iPhones out of a total 9.8 million smartphones. That's 63%. Last year holiday quarter Apple's share of activations on Verizon was 55%. If I remember correctly they said 65% were LTE devices but I can't remember if that was an iPhone figure or a total smartphone figure. Anyone know what analyst expectations were for Verizon iPhone sales?
Edited by Rogifan - 1/22/13 at 5:51am

Apple is doing a good job at the carrier sub model. In the U.S Apple can sustain its market share because they are on equal footing in price, and the iphone is a great product that is viewed as a power symbol. 

 

The problem has to compete on price. 

 

The biggest threat to Apple this year is the success of Tmobiles no sub for phones model. If that model works, and gets adopted by other carries Apple is screwed. Mid range Android phones and High range android phones and windows phones will eat Apple's profit margin alive. Yes Apple will sell iphones but if they keep the same pricing model, Apple profits take a punch as they will not sell as many phones. 

 

If you are an Apple investor, keep hopping for telecom subsity model, because without it. What's happening in Europe will happen to Apple here in the U.S.

How high?

The fundamental issue is that there's no one source of information that's going to tell you how each platform is doing. In fact, that even begs the question - how are they doing with respect to WHAT? Sales? Profits? Installed base? Market share?

The entire picture comes from looking at all the different data available and trying to understand the interrelationships in order to get a true representation.

In terms of sales, the data presented here is one example of sales data - but covers US only and may or may not be representative of the population as a whole.

Profits are clearly well in Apple's favor - with Apple getting something like 75% of the industry's profits.

Use of the products also seems to be in Apple's favor - with a quite large percentage of internet access coming from iOS devices.

Developer profits is weighted heavily in Apple's favor. This is the factor that would matter if you were a developer.

Raw sales (global) is a difficult one to assess, at least partly because there's no solid definition of 'smartphone'. Some analyses include low end 'smartphones' which are really not much more than glorified feature phones. Others include only mid- to high- end smart phones. All things considered, it appears that there are more Android smartphones sold than iOS phones - with the difference being small or large, depending on whether you include the very low end or not.

In terms of single models, Apple wins hands down with the iPhone selling significantly more than any other single model. This would be important, for example, if you make cases.

Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.

KD - your above statement is going to be really confusing when Apple brings out the iPhone Math this year. 

Bull. That's like saying Ford selling dirt cheap cars will cut into BMW's profits. People buy what they want.

Perfect example is the iPad, of which the majority of sales are outright purchases. This in a sea of dirt cheap tablets from Android vendors.

High end phones that compete with the iPhone are also expensive and people will have no qualms about spending an extra $100 for the real deal instead of some cheap knock off.

That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.

That doesn't negate my answer.

First, Google's answer was ambiguous.

Second, Google has a history of presenting misleading results.

Third, these numbers are not from Google, and we don't know how they were determined or whether the activation figures presented here use the same or different methodology.

 

The purpose of your post, like all your other posts, was to sow FUD. Your posts show that you think you are a lot more clever than you are.

 

And, these numbers agree with the other numbers we've seen regarding carrier sales and activations in the US. It does only cover the US, but these and other numbers show that iPhone is outselling Android here, that significant numbers are abandoning Android for iOS, and, combined with usage stats, supports the notion that the bulk of Android activations reported by Google (assuming they are real numbers) are cheap "features phones" that carry no benefit for Google and the Android ecosystem.

 

Very well said, and quite true.   iPhone upgrade loyalty does lead to more re-activations of used iPhones.  I have a link giving percentages that I'll try to find for you.

 

As for other kinds of (re)activations, most resets don't require one.   We'd need to figure out how many come from iOS jailbreaks and Android ROM changes.

 

As you said, they're not the best math unit to compare with.

 

That's why it makes more sense to simply use sales numbers, such as the ones that are the actual topic of this article.

Edited by KDarling - 1/22/13 at 7:21am

 

And yet, a moment ago, you were urging us to bear in mind activation numbers.

 

Perhaps if you took the time to follow the thread instead of jumping into the middle, it would be clearer to you.

 

1) The article is about sales figures.

2) Someone else commented that the sale figures looked bogus because they didn't match activation figures.

3) I helpfully pointed out that that's because they're counting two totally different things.

4) Therefore, people would be better off sticking to using the original figures in (1) if they're debating sales.

 

Take off your tinfoil hat.  Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

Except that's rewriting history. You didn't state point 4 until much later. 

Impossible. Not with this many Google apologists working overtime in Apple forums.

"While still a rumor, some analysts believe the unannounced device will boast a design similar to the current iPhone 5, but will reduce costs by replacing expensive aluminum and glass parts with polycarbonate and plastic."

I can't help wondering what Steve Jobs would have thought of a cheap plastic Apple phone. Would such a phone pass his 'keys in pocket' test? Won't it drag down the perceived quality of the Apple brand?

all these surveys we see - even when legit - are going to have a significant margin of error because the situation is murky and hard data is only partially available. suffice to say iPhone is by far the most popular single smartphone, and overall has about 1/2 of the US market. clearly the iOS ecosystem is firmly established here, which propels sales of other Apple products too.

 

what does jump out of this survey is (1) RIM is near death in the US, and (2) new Windows Phones models are a flop. both their numbers are too small to pretend otherwise.

 

RIM is stronger overseas. but unlike Nokia, it can't survive as it is today without a credible US presence. if the new BB models don't succeed with about 5% of the 2013 US market, RIM will be forced into a sale, probably to some Asian OEM.

 

and Windows Phone ... by the same standard, if the new W8 Phone models can't gain about 5% of the US market this year they will become the new MS "hobby." but since MS won't give up (as long as Ballmer is in charge), it will then finally just take over Nokia outright to push them even harder next year.

 

i do expect Apple to fill out its product line and launch an iPhone mini this year - basically a souped-up iPod touch (which is pretty much an iPhone 4S inside), but as light and thin as technically possible. that would be a much stronger product in the marketplace than discounted past years' models, and even more attractive to overseas markets. yes, they will keep the same profit margin, don't worry about that ....

Activations represent an ambiguous number. In the US market most phones are purchased on contract so the phone number stays the same over the course of any reactivations, however in the developing world, many smartphones especially Android, are reactivated with different phone numbers by the same user due to the fact that often they are being used with pay as you go SIMs and people switch between carriers a lot. Of course the same could be said for iPhones in the US as they are reactivated with new SIMs as they become resold or handed down devices. Those are reactivations too and also contribute to the web usage disparity as new iPhone users come online with used devices.

"Exactly what I was going to say. This was a loss for RIM, not Android."
For Android not to grow in market percentage is extremely notable unto itself.

No matter what figure are reported, the fandroid trolls just can't help themselves to jump on these forums to spread their FUD. Its like going to an opposing teams home game, heckling the players when your team isn't even there. Gator guy and KDarling must have something better to do, surly? Or are they so emotionally challenged, that it imperative of them to troll almost every story here, day in day out? Either have a strong drink, get some counseling or find something to make your life happy. Spreading your bile here just proves how inferior you must be feeling about yourselves. Myself, I read a good book, play games with my kids, or have conversation with a good friend. Try it. It may help you.