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Apple earnings come in flat at $13.1B on sales of 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads and 4.1M Macs - Page 3

post #81 of 148

Not hard to understand....

 

Apple was over valued.  No company could maintain the growth that Apple had in the last few years... Period...

 

This is a market correction, nothing else to see here....

 

The stock in comfortable in the $500/share range.  Growth from here will be steady and more realistic....

post #82 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Come again? More iPad minis sold compared to...? The $68 price despite the $170 disparity indicates that price isn't the biggest issue as customers didn't overwhelmingly take advantage of the $170 entry level price. It shows that the 10" iPad was still the most popular and/or the higher end iPad minis were very popular.


You are absolutely right. I did the subtraction and somehow applied the difference with the wrong logic.

post #83 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Stock will be down probably 10% tomorrow. Since the Q&A they've gone down even further. 1oyvey.gif

Dood they are already down near 10%. This is unbelievable. There's 2.5 more hours to go in after.

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post #84 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

Not hard to understand....

Apple was over valued.  No company could maintain the growth that Apple had in the last few years... Period...

This is a market correction, nothing else to see here....

The stock in comfortable in the $500/share range.  Growth from here will be steady and more realistic....
But Google and Amazon aren't overvalued? Pfffft 1rolleyes.gif
post #85 of 148

Alright, bad news is that the stock is down 10% in after hours. Good news is that only has another ~$60 to go before it hits a major resistance level. Viva la Resistance!

post #86 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by RRtexasranger View Post

Alright, bad news is that the stock is down 10% in after hours. Good news is that only has another ~$60 to go before it hits a major resistance level. Viva la Resistance!

 

Bad news? This is the time to buy, lads and lassies!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #87 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by alcstarheel View Post

Dood they are already down near 10%. This is unbelievable. There's 2.5 more hours to go in after.
At what point would they halt trading?
post #88 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blitz1 View Post

Well, I must say, my straddle is paying off... big time.

Really.

 

And we should believe you because you told us this is what you were planning to do, or are you just having a wet dream? 1rolleyes.gif

post #89 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

At what point would they halt trading?

Hahahahahahaha
post #90 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Year over year they were flat.


I thought the same thing too. But then, it occurred to me that the same quarter last year was one week longer. So EPS actually went up by close to 8%.

post #91 of 148

Enough name-calling. Someone's right, someone's wrong. The one in the right shouldn't have to resort to using anything but the truth, but both sides are doing it.

 

Cool your respective jets.

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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #92 of 148

Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem. 

 

Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem. 

post #93 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


At what point would they halt trading?
 

Hahahahahahaha

They halted Google's last quarter didn't they? That was a different situation with the early numbers release but I still don't know why they halted GOOG's then.

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post #94 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Really.

 

And we should believe you because you told us this is what you were planning to do, or are you just having a wet dream? 1rolleyes.gif


No,

 

because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.

So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480

post #95 of 148
Well... I'm disappointed. I was over-confident given the Verizon numbers and a sense of growth in China. I am excited about the iPad number though.

Doesn't look like Apple will be above $600 any time soon... but I don't worry that they won't be back above $500 shortly. I guess you have to have a capitulation for things to turn around...
post #96 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


I thought the same thing too. But then, it occurred to me that the same quarter last year was one week longer. So EPS actually went up by close to 8%.

I detailed some of that on page 2 of this thread.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #97 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blitz1 View Post


No,

 

because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.

So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480


Calls at $530 and puts at $480?

 

That's not a straddle.

post #98 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Apple's performance is not the problem. Apple's consumers are not the problem. Apple's products are not the problem. 

 

Wall Street and its base of "analysts" and their unrealistic, inflated expectations, based on flimsy evidence from "sources" and "industry checks", is most certainly the problem. 

And when the stock was flying high because of Wall-Street's overly optimistic expectations, who was complaining then?  

post #99 of 148


Cool. Sorry, mate.  I didn't see it.

post #100 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Cool. Sorry, mate.  I didn't see it.

Bore repeating, it keeps getting overlooked.

post #101 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Calls at $530 and puts at $480?

 

That's not a straddle.


Sorry if I have the wrong term.

Was pretty sure about it though.

Well, I won't mind tomorrow :))

post #102 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by alcstarheel View Post

They halted Google's last quarter didn't they? That was a different situation with the early numbers release but I still don't know why they halted GOOG's then.

Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.
post #103 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Cool. Sorry, mate.  I didn't see it.

No worries. So much data from so many sources we can't possibly see it all.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #104 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blitz1 View Post


No,

 

because only a fool would not have known that the stock would go either up or down with a nominal margin.

So, iso being long or short, the best option was to bet on both. I went for calls 530 and puts 480

Uh uh.... I am somewhat puzzled that you say bought a 'straddle' when a straddle (look it up) requires the same exercise price on the call and the put. Indeed, with 'nominal' movements, straddles lose money. They pay off when there are fairly sizable movements relative to exercise price.

 

Are you sure that you know what you're talking about? Everyone gets lucky once in a while, but I think you're trying to convince us you're also skilled. I am a bit suspicious of the latter, that's all.

 

Add: I notice that stelligent caught you out on that before I did. But I'll let my post be....

post #105 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Calls at $530 and puts at $480?

 

That's not a straddle.

 

No, but Apple's stock has a long history of large moves after earnings...  It almost always moves 5%+ 

post #106 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


But Google and Amazon aren't overvalued? Pfffft 1rolleyes.gif

 

Those two stocks had not grown that much in such a short period of time.... Big difference...

post #107 of 148

You know, I wish that this website wouldn't just blindly copy and paste the bullshit interpretations and nauseating  media narrative using descriptive terms such as 'flat', 'miss', 'dissapointing', etc. Every single other website and techblog on the internet does it, and I used to think that AppleInsider had higher standards, but not anymore. Lately, its just been a constant vomit of the garbage that is crossposted everywhere. What the ratio of negative:positive articles about Apple on this site lately, like 10:1?

 

Apple just made revenues of $56,000,000,000 in a single quarter, the best quarter in their history (as usual). That's 11 zeroes. They just sold 47,800,000 iPhones. 22,000,000 iPads. 75,000,000 iOS devices. These numbers are alot of things (ie. stunning), but 'flat' and 'dissapointing' and 'misses' aren't those things. 

 

Let's have some fucking context and perspective here. Apple had a mind-blowing quarter, and just because they didn't hit some random, round number than some jackasses (analysts) who are always wrong about everything, dredged up randomly from their asses and decided that number was important, that doesn't decrease the merit of Apple's results. Maybe, on some other planet in some other universe there's a company that is performing better, but on this planet, no such other company exists. The original iPhone took a few months to sell a million, which was considered a great success. Now, 48 million in a quarter is dissapointing, even with a shitload of competition.  My, how spoiled and cynical we've become

post #108 of 148

LOL. The call just ended, and the bumper music was The Temptations:

 

"I know you wanna leave me but I refuse to let you go..."

post #109 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

 

Those two stocks had not grown that much in such a short period of time.... Big difference...

It is meaningless to judge stock price growth independently of earnings and free cash flow growth.

 

How does AAPL compare on that dimension with AMZN and GOOG?

post #110 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


Because when different market participants have different information, the market is broken. When everyone has the same information and is deciding to sell, there's no broken market. They don't close down trading just because what you wanted to happen to your stock didn't happen.

I just just asking a more complete question that I believed the other person was alluding to. Rogifan was seeking an answer that you replied to and didn't give. I didn't know that early release of information last quarter was different than Google's official release.

 

EDIT: Looking it up GOOG's share trades were halted when they had dropped 10%. Apple is hovering around that right now. Just a coincidence.


Edited by alcstarheel - 1/23/13 at 3:24pm
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post #111 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

Not hard to understand....

Apple was over valued.  No company could maintain the growth that Apple had in the last few years... Period...

Over valued? By what rational measure?

The most common measure of stock value is P/E. Even before this 'correction', Apple's forward, cash-adjusted P/E was in the low 7 range while the average stock was almost 3 times that. By that standard, Apple's profits would have to drop by 67% just to get the P/E back to market levels - which would assume that Apple would grow at market rates.

WIth Apple's recent growth history, the stock should have been trading at a multiple HIGHER than the market as a whole - so it was already grossly undervalued.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

And when the stock was flying high because of Wall-Street's overly optimistic expectations, who was complaining then?  

When was the stock flying high? In terms of P/E, I can't remember a time when Apple's P/E was greater than the market average - so it has never been overvalued, at least by that measure.
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post #112 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Sure, lower GM is scaring some people. But bearing in mind that iPad Mini and iPhone 5 remain new, with iPhone 5 already notorious for being hard to build. This is bound to improve.

This is the most hilarious part of people having a negative reaction (after filtering out the morons who want to create a different set of rules for AAPL). First, Apple already stated in the last earnings call that gross margin would shrink in this latest quarter. And they said why. Large capital investments for so many simultaneous product launches - iPhone 5, iPad mini, new iPods, and the new iMac. They already explained it three months ago. What they also explained is that gross margin would return over time.

 

But none of it matters. The fools drown out anyone with a clue. I think Apple's management thinks it's funny, and probably provides a competitive advantage. Many outsiders really believe Apple has problems, while Apple continues to release products that outsell every other product in their categories all while bringing in ungodly amounts of profit. Other companies chase market share, while Apple takes the market profit. Wall Street can play whatever game they want, I'll take the dividends and growth strategy which will ultimately be reflected in the share price. I'm glad Apple could care less about day traders.

post #113 of 148
Well, what can I say? When fans turn into blind fanatics, all arguments go to waste. Forum administrators here blocked and hid several of my posts where I clearly argued that AAPL will fall. They came up with lame excuses about spam filter blocking my posts, which is total BS. I have been on this forum for over 7 years and my posts had never been blocked before nor did they contain any links or other red flags. The administrators simply did not want to see any arguments about AAPL falling, irrespective of merit or logic they contained. I just wanted to inform those investors, who were interested in protecting their capital. As soon as iPhone 5 came out, it was clear to me and to many others that the stock will fall. I will not repeat details again for the fear of being blocked here but those interested might just google AAPL DNA Principles and see if they agree with 4 reasons as to why AAPL will experience further declines.
post #114 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Over valued? By what rational measure?

The most common measure of stock value is P/E. Even before this 'correction', Apple's forward, cash-adjusted P/E was in the low 7 range while the average stock was almost 3 times that. By that standard, Apple's profits would have to drop by 67% just to get the P/E back to market levels - which would assume that Apple would grow at market rates.

WIth Apple's recent growth history, the stock should have been trading at a multiple HIGHER than the market as a whole - so it was already grossly undervalued.
When was the stock flying high? In terms of P/E, I can't remember a time when Apple's P/E was greater than the market average - so it has never been overvalued, at least by that measure.

 

 

The problem is that it was over hyped due to recent success.  The projections were based on unrealistic growth curves....

 

While P/E is a good measure of current health of a company, the potential for profit growth is what really drives stock prices up or down.....

 

Apple is very healthy and will continue to grow.  While it is currently down to about $460.00 it will be back up to the $500.00 mark by the end of the week (maybe by the end of the day tomorrow).  Then you will see a more shallow but steady price growth.....

 

This is not a conspiracy as many here claim.  It is just how the market works...

post #115 of 148

Two points:

 

1) The saying goes "buy on rumor, sell on news". Stock often goes down after results are made public, even when the results are good.

 

2) The stock price of a company does not reflect how well a company is doing, it reflects how well people perceive it to be doing. P/E ratios mean very little.

post #116 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider 
Apple announced Wednesday a profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share, on record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion for the three-month period ended December 29th, 2012.

Apple sold a record 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 37 million in the year-ago quarter.

That's impressive, I thought 50 million was optimisitic even though it followed the growth from before and they came pretty close to it. Even more impressive is they beat Samsung:

http://www.techspot.com/news/51294-samsungs-record-quarter-83-billion-profit-63-million-phones-sold.html

Samsung sold more handsets overall but the Galaxy S3 only accounted for 15 million and the Galaxy Note II, 8 million. The rest was made up from their other 35 models of phone. I guess people don't want those big screens after all. The iPhone 5 will easily make up over half of the total iPhones sold so the iPhone 5 outsold the S3 and Note II combined.

Apple's profit is higher too on the lower overall volume.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider 
Apple also sold 12.7 million iPods in the quarter, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

Looks like people don't want just an MP3 player any more. Still, they'll ride it out - I reckon one day the off-contract price of the iPhone will come somewhat in line with the iPods. With phone subsidies, it will appear cheaper to some people as they'd be paying for a mobile phone in any case.
post #117 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post


The problem is that it was over hyped due to recent success.  The projections were based on unrealistic growth curves....

While P/E is a good measure of current health of a company, the potential for profit growth is what really drives stock prices up or down.....

Apple is very healthy and will continue to grow.  While it is currently down to about $460.00 it will be back up to the $500.00 mark by the end of the week (maybe by the end of the day tomorrow).  Then you will see a more shallow but steady price growth.....

This is not a conspiracy as many here claim.  It is just how the market works...

Overhyped? Which planet are you living on? There's been nothing but negative news about Apple for months.
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post #118 of 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

ASP of iPads went down from $535 to $467, a drop of $68. Given that the difference in the starting prices of iPad and iPad Mini is $170, this might suggest more Mini's were sold.

No it suggests that some minis were sold. If a majority were minis you would expect the drop to be closer to 85. This isn't alarming or surprising. The mini was a fresh new product. The regular was a small upgrade that added a faster processor and the lightning connector.
post #119 of 148

Well, Tim has got an even rougher year ahead of him.

 

All he has to do is show much better yoy performance in the next 3 quarters. Easy peezy.

 

(I wouldn't want to be in his shoes)
 

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post #120 of 148
The Anal-ists have lost there minds!
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