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Apple stock drops over 10% in after-hours trading during Q1 earnings call - Page 3

post #81 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

Why is anybody surprised by the stock tanking?

The market is rightfully spooked.  First, the falling margins.  Next, and more importantly, most of Apple's earnings come from iPhone sales.  And iPhone sales missed.  Investors trade on forward earnings.  And many suspect that Apple may be starting to see stiff competition finally, possibly driving both sales and margins lower.  Man, if I knew the numbers would have been this bad, I would have shorted the stock.  This fear of competition is exactly why Apple's PE has always been lower than you would expect.  People compare Apple to Amazon and GE.  If you do that, you are thinking like a fanboy and not an investor.  As an investor, you should be scared of a company dependent on one product which they launch once a year, and which is starting to face growing headwinds, and running out of new markets to exploit (as in places where people can afford $800 iPhones).  Amazon and GE are substantially more diversified, strong in multiple markets and don't yet have major competition that could kill their earnings with just one bad product launch.  This risk is why investors discount the stock.

Crying about how markets are failing and capitalism is just fanboy drivel from those who don't understand how markets work and what drives investor sentiment.

Now, I've bought AAPL and suffered a bit of a hit on paper, but for me, it's one stock in my portfolio and I don't day trade.  I've bought those shares and they'll be in there till I die or Apple does.  I know Apple will eventually transition to a stable blue chip paying solid dividends, rather than a growth company sitting on more money than God. 

But for me, my new growth stock is TSLA.  Musk might actually be even more of a visionary than Jobs.  The guy has actually taken 3 companies to billion dollar valuations from virtually nothing.  And all in markets where he would face remarkable and entrenched resistance.

Refresh my memory. How many products does Tesla sell?
post #82 of 144

Would anyone like to share their APPL plans?

 

I got in quite low, luckily so with the approval of my advisor. I do have an extended family member who jumped in at just over $600 in a big way... over 50k.

 

What are some possible outcomes?

 

If APPL doesn't like the way the market is treating it, should it just increase the buyback program and issue more dividends? They seemed to hint that was possible on the conference call but restated they're happy with their current plan.

 

Could someone who bought over it's current trading price still end up making money?

 

 

As someone say, they report the best earnings in the history of the world and the stock goes down... scary.

post #83 of 144

The management has once again shown how weak it is when it comes to financial matters. They should take this opportunity to buyback at least 10% of the shares.

post #84 of 144
Less than analysts predicted but more than guidance. Apple is DOOMED!!!
post #85 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by APPLGUY View Post

Less than analysts predicted but more than guidance. Apple is DOOMED!!

There is no denying the results are very poor. 0% profit growth.

post #86 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

In spite of how bad as the last couple months have been, I'm holding onto the stock because I think it's going to rise beyond the previous high after the new Apple TV debuts. Investors have been scared because Apple hasn't released any groundbreaking products since Jobs died. They need to see that Apple still has thatmagic touch.

Oh come on... Apple TV... we have one already. What more is there? Apple cannot get in bed with media companies, and who's going to compete quality wise against Samsung and Sony and many others in a very saturated market. We have Netflix on everything. Rokus, Apple TVs, consoles etc.

Apple made money creating markets. Now others have caught up, they need to open up new markets again to really lift their stock price.
post #87 of 144
Originally Posted by quinney View Post
Refresh my memory. How many products does Tesla sell?

 

Two right now, unless you count parts/accessories.


Edited by Tallest Skil - 1/23/13 at 9:00pm

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post #88 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post

The management has once again shown how weak it is when it comes to financial matters. They should take this opportunity to buyback at least 10% of the shares.

As of right now that is $43.6 billion. I think the $10 billion buyback they already agreed to is sufficient.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #89 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

The issue at hand isn't that Apple constantly released groundbreaking products before and now does not.  It's that Steve Jobs was seen as the reason that Apple could release such products, and it hasn't been proven since his death that they still can.

And they accuse us of putting Steve Jobs on a pedestal...

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #90 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Refresh my memory. How many products does Tesla sell?

Two right now, unless you count parts.

I was pointing out to Jetz the inconsistency of his stock choices. Are you sure Tesla is still making roadsters? I think the Model S is the only one
in production.
post #91 of 144
Originally Posted by quinney View Post
I was pointing out to Jetz the inconsistency of his stock choices. Are you sure Tesla is still making roadsters? I think the Model S is the only one
in production.

 

I was counting the Telsa X, for which they're taking orders and which I assume are in production. Yes, they've stopped the Roadster.

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post #92 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

I was pointing out to Jetz the inconsistency of his stock choices. Are you sure Tesla is still making roadsters? I think the Model S is the only one

in production.


I was counting the Telsa X, for which they're taking orders and which I assume are in production. Yes, they've stopped the Roadster.

Last thing I saw Model X is for next year.
post #93 of 144
Originally Posted by quinney View Post
Last thing I saw Model X is for next year.

 

That's absolutely right, but they're building them right now, aren't they? I guess it doesn't mean anything unless they can count 'em shipped. 

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post #94 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by realwarder View Post


Oh come on... Apple TV... we have one already. What more is there? Apple cannot get in bed with media companies, and who's going to compete quality wise against Samsung and Sony and many others in a very saturated market. We have Netflix on everything. Rokus, Apple TVs, consoles etc.

Apple made money creating markets. Now others have caught up, they need to open up new markets again to really lift their stock price.

Say what you will, but I think there is plenty of room for Apple to disrupt the TV market.  The TV is the last screen currently in houses (not to speak to the screens we will be using in the next decade) that does not have an elegant solution for use as a computer.  Smart TVs have been around for a while, and there are certainly good options available, but they haven't caught on in the mass market.  Out of all companies, Apple has had the best track record for rethinking existing products and I fully believe they will do it with the television.

 

As you mentioned, Apple doesn't stand a very good chance of revamping television service, but there are still many options on the table for what they can do to make that service more usable.  On the Wii U Nintendo has created an elegant solution for a TV guide by indexing content and making it searchable with a touch interface.  Although there may not be much more additional functionality that Apple could add in this area, they can make it more usable by integrating it into the television at the OS level rather than relying on an additional box that you have to add to your entertainment center.  I also expect Apple to either ship their TV with a touch screen controller or (and?) create an app that allows iPads and iPhones to control the television.  And who can forget Siri?  Siri might be forgettable when it comes to web searching, but it's fantastic for system functionality.  Why reach for your tablet remote when you can just call out a channel?  Why pull up a guide when you can ask for a list of cooking shows starting in the next half hour?  There is a lot that Apple can do in this space.

 

PS - for Tallest, Apple ][, Solipsism, and all the others who I regularly disagree with, please note my adoration for Apple as a company.  I love everything they do (hardware, OSX, integration of products, customer service, you name it), except for iOS and their litigation against Android OEMs.  Android is unarguably a more functional OS, and I am annoyed that I can't have an Apple phone without sacrificing usability.  That is usability, not smoothness or polish.  iOS is at a serious deficit compared to Android, and Apple needs to rectify that ASAP.


Edited by wakefinance - 1/23/13 at 10:11pm
post #95 of 144
It seems I'm not alone in thinking the Mac is what defines Apple, what it's shocking is to see that it's the investors who agree with me, rather than Apple fans. I'd expect Mac users to value the Mac, and investors to value the easy money from iOS, but it's just the opposite, for reasons unknown.
post #96 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


Other flagship phones are $600 too. But those manufacturers also sell crappy $100 phones in addition to their flagship phones. No wonder they have insane market share numbers across the globe.
 

If you buy a cheap $100 Android phone because you don't have the money for an expensive one, you will get used to Android OS and ecosystem and next time, when you will have the money for an expensive phone you will not switch to Apple, you will buy an expensive Android phone. Market share DOES MATTER! People don't like to learn new stuff. See how many people still hang on Windows XP because they don't like or don't want to learn Windows 7 or 8.

post #97 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Last thing I saw Model X is for next year.

That's absolutely right, but they're building them right now, aren't they? I guess it doesn't mean anything unless they can count 'em shipped. 

I don't think they are building the model x yet. They are working hard to ramp up production of the model S in order to fulfill demand. (That sounds familiar, doesn't it? People often express impatience with delays in receiving their iDevices, but imagine waiting many months for one of those fancy cars.)
post #98 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

If you buy a cheap $100 Android phone because you don't have the money for an expensive one, you will get used to Android OS and ecosystem and next time, when you will have the money for an expensive phone you will not switch to Apple, you will buy an expensive Android phone. Market share DOES MATTER! People don't like to learn new stuff. See how many people still hang on Windows XP because they don't like or don't want to learn Windows 7 or 8.

 

Of course you can get a subsidized $700 Android phone for $0-200.  You can even get subsidized iPhones for $0-300.  Even high end smartphones are affordable.  I don't know where you live, but where I am, seeing anyone with anything but a high-end phone is rare...  Galaxy S3, Note 2 and iPhone 5 are the most widespread phones I see...

post #99 of 144
Apple needs to ramp-up the "It just works." I enjoy my Apple products and they work great for the most part but I have had issues at one time or the other with all of them but my iPad. Good for me I'm tech savvy or it would be a bigger issue as I'm sure it has been for other consumers.
post #100 of 144
OK, people are dumb. If anybody thinks the market is rational, have them take a look at Apple and they should be cured. Respectable results are no longer anywhere near good enough for Apple investors. If only they held Apple to the same standard that Amazon investors use.
post #101 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

Apple can't charge $600 for an iPhone in China and take any appreciable amount of the market.  I think what we are seeing is saturation of the iPhone in its target market.  Everyone that has the money to buy an iPhone has bought one.  If Apple refuses to expand its market, it will stop growing.  Apple may be fine with that, but many investors have a problem with it.

I don't think anyone really knows what Apple should do about its high priced high margin iPhone.  Do you risk compressing margins further by releasing an inferior device?  They may take market share, but make less money.  In the long term will they become irrelevant because they will price themselves out of the market?  It is a really tough call.  Call it either way and you'll have a 50:50 chance of being right.

Personally, I'm looking for growth in iPad and Mac.  The iPad actually competes fairly well on price.  The iPad is also more important from the standpoint of a software platform.  I think Apple will benefit from Microsoft causing additional fragmenting of this market.  iPad should continue to reign supreme. I'm confident Apple will also continue to advance this space with better screens and processors, better battery life, and smaller form factor.   

The problem is even when apple are selling it at $600 they still cant satisfies demand. And that is excluding all iPhone isn't working on China Mobile 3G Network. With better roll out, better prepared production line, TSD-CDMA capable iPhone, and apple promise of China being 1st on the release list. I am pretty sure 5s will hit a new height for Apple. And may be the fastest production iPhone and biggest roll out in Phone history.

They only let down will be their Software, which i think is starting to lag behind Android. I hope iOS 7 will close that gap or even leap ahead.

After that, I think Apple may have trouble going even higher...... unless there is another revolutionary product comes out.....
post #102 of 144

How big is China and does it really need a cheap iPhone?

 

Chinese per capita annual disposable income is around $3000, which doesn't sound like much. However, the top 10% pull in about 30% the total income, meaning their average is more like $9,000 (I could be a bit out because disposable income is the only average I could find for recent years, and people with higher incomes also have higher disposable incomes). $9k doesn't sound huge but in China it buys more than in the US and remember this is disposable income (per capita so an average household of 3 in this category would have $27000), so there is some discretion in how it's spent.

 

So China has a market of about 100-million people who can afford an iPhone at current prices. As another indicator, new car sales are currently running at around 19-million a year (vs. 15-million in the US), so there are plenty of people in China who could pay out a few hundred dollars for a phone if they wanted to.

 

The potential market would be a lot bigger if Apple produced a really cheap phone but if the Chinese economy continues to grow and some of the gross inequality is eliminated, wouldn't you rather be an aspirational brand for the emerging recently poor than a junk brand that those doing better would like to leave behind?

Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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post #103 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

If you buy a cheap $100 Android phone because you don't have the money for an expensive one, you will get used to Android OS and ecosystem and next time, when you will have the money for an expensive phone you will not switch to Apple, you will buy an expensive Android phone. Market share DOES MATTER! People don't like to learn new stuff. See how many people still hang on Windows XP because they don't like or don't want to learn Windows 7 or 8.

Well... they had to learn Android in the first place... coming from a flip-phone or no phone.

I understand what you're saying... but still. I'd hardly call iOS "difficult to use" and if you've mastered Android first, iOS will be cake.

And let's be honest... those $100 phones running Gingerbread aren't exactly a joy to use 1wink.gif

If they buy a cheap $100 phone because that's all they can afford... they're probably not spending a lot of money on apps and games. Probably not music either. In other words... they are NOT invested in the platform. And how many Android phones are simply used as feature phones? Basic calling and texting.

The cost to switch will be minimal or non-existent and not very hard to do. (they might already have an iTunes account... those iPods were pretty popular)

I've seen PLENTY of people switch from Android to the iPhone. I can't even begin to tell you how many people I know who jumped on the Droid train years ago... or had some other Android phone in 2010-2011. But a staggering amount of them are now using iPhones.

Hell... I've seen people go from flip-phone, to Blackberry, to Android, to iPhone. Switching platforms happens more than you think.

A lot of my friends are on Verizon... and many of them had the Droid X. In its day it was Verizon's flagship phone (for about a week until the next Droid came out)

Again... they couldn't wait until their contract was up to get an iPhone. They hated their old Droid. Switching to the iPhone wasn't difficult to do and it made them much happier.

Bottom line... the average user has little to no difficulty switching platforms... and the budget-conscious $100 phone user will even less of an aversion to switch.

So that's phones... let's talk about computers...

Yes... people "hang on" to XP for a variety of reasons. If you're in the enterprise... it could be IT policy.

At home... you might keep using the old XP computer you already have. But when you buy a new computer... sorry... it has Windows 7 on it. Most people don't "upgrade" their old computers at home anyway... and they especially don't "downgrade" a brand new machine to XP.

I'm actually surprised seeing XP's numbers today... it's gotta be mostly enterprise customers. I can't imagine a home user NOT buying a new computer because it doesn't have XP on it...

They're missing out... Windows 7 is pretty cool 1cool.gif
post #104 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

But for me, my new growth stock is TSLA.  Musk might actually be even more of a visionary than Jobs.  The guy has actually taken 3 companies to billion dollar valuations from virtually nothing.  And all in markets where he would face remarkable and entrenched resistance.

Another problem with Apple is that they have lost Steve Jobs, their visionary. Once you've lost your visionary, you will never get another one! Geniuses, visionaries, don't work for other companies! They work for themselves. Try to imagine Elon Musk working for Apple!

post #105 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by ksec View Post


The problem is even when apple are selling it at $600 they still cant satisfies demand. And that is excluding all iPhone isn't working on China Mobile 3G Network. With better roll out, better prepared production line, TSD-CDMA capable iPhone, and apple promise of China being 1st on the release list. I am pretty sure 5s will hit a new height for Apple. And may be the fastest production iPhone and biggest roll out in Phone history.

They only let down will be their Software, which i think is starting to lag behind Android. I hope iOS 7 will close that gap or even leap ahead.

After that, I think Apple may have trouble going even higher...... unless there is another revolutionary product comes out.....

 

I'm starting to have doubts about Apple's software approach too. I needed to write a simple Mac app that's mostly user interface and despite my aversion to proprietary tools decided to give Cocoa a look. After a few weeks of frustration at working through incomplete examples, tutorials that are out of date and failure to get past a simple user interface that didn't hook up with the app logic, I switched to using a cross-platform toolkit, Qt. It's not great but adequate for my purposes. I didn't expect getting into Cocoa to be trivial (learning Objective-C is no big deal, I learn new languages all the time) but it was a lot worse than I imagined. The real problem Apple has is they have accumulated cruft through several layers of OS X development on top of which they have added iOS with significant differences in some details of how apps have to work.

 

Far from iOS representing throwing out the old, it includes too much of the old.

Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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post #106 of 144
My mum is right !! She said never invest in stock as it cheats people . From Apple drop, I learnt it deeply .
post #107 of 144
If the market has expected Apple poor result , why dropped 10% again ??? Why !?? Totally nonsense !!!
post #108 of 144
Apple's main mistake was to cave in for investors' requests for dividends. The moment a company does that, they burst the speculation bubble. Microsoft did the same and it went bad for them; Apple should have learned that lesson. Jobs understood it; Cook doesn't. The void created by Jobs' death is now beginning to be fully realized.
post #109 of 144
I keep seeing comments about growth being flat. Where are people getting that from? This quarter revenue was 54B, the same quarter last year it was 46B. That's not flat. 1hmm.gif. Yes profit was flat but Apple introduced a lot of new stuff at the end of 2012 whereas in 2011 all we had was the 4S, so obviously costs are going to be higher, driving down margins and profit.
post #110 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post

There is no denying the results are very poor. 0% profit growth.

right! $13B profit is CHUMP CHANGE! why, it's only 93% of Google's total revenues for the same quarter!! it's only about 100X more than Amazon's profits!!! the total 2012 profit for Apple is only the greatest ever in world corporate history! but that was ... months ago ... and what about the rest of the universe???

 

so obviously dump Apple and buy Google and Amazon! please, do that. you deserve it.


Edited by Alfiejr - 1/24/13 at 1:42am
post #111 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post

OK, people are dumb. If anybody thinks the market is rational, have them take a look at Apple and they should be cured. Respectable results are no longer anywhere near good enough for Apple investors. If only they held Apple to the same standard that Amazon investors use.

they aren't investors. they are speculators. there is a huge difference.

post #112 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

right! $13B profit is CHUMP CHANGE! why, it's only 93% of Google's total revenues for the same quarter!! it's only about 1000X more than Amazon's profits!!! the total 2012 profit for Apple is only the greatest ever in world corporate history! but that was months ago ... and what about the rest of the universe???

so obviously dump Apple and buy Google and Amazon! please, do that. you deserve it.
I'm waiting for Wall Street to hammer Amazon for no profit growth. Of course I know, fat chance of that. lol.gif
post #113 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

If you buy a cheap $100 Android phone because you don't have the money for an expensive one, you will get used to Android OS and ecosystem and next time, when you will have the money for an expensive phone you will not switch to Apple, you will buy an expensive Android phone. Market share DOES MATTER! People don't like to learn new stuff. See how many people still hang on Windows XP because they don't like or don't want to learn Windows 7 or 8.

This logic is SO wrong I wonder what's your occupation. My friend bought a cheap Android phone when the money's tight. Last year he got promotion, guess what phone he bought. I give you a hint: it doesn't run Android.
post #114 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by ruel24 View Post

I think it's clear that the market doesn't have faith in Cook. He just lacks charisma and Apple hasn't had a blowout product announcement in a long time.

Sorry, but use your brain a little.

 

iPhone - 2007

iPad - 2010

now - january 2013. see?

post #115 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

 

What would Apple's stock price be if they had a single disastrous iPhone launch (think "you're holding it wrong"...but that turns out to be a real flaw")?  That risk is exactly why AAPL's PE is "ridiculously low".

 

Amazon is no where as dependent on any single market as Apple is on the iPhone.  So naturally, if iPhone sales miss, the stock will tank.  AAPL is really an iPhone growth story.  

the "mac" is bigger than google.

 

the "iPad" is bigger than microsoft.

 

the "iPod" is bigger than Dell.

 

What are you afraid of?

post #116 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post
4.  Look at the end of subsidies at T-Mobile USA.  These are all real threats to Apple in the long run.  The latter particularly so.  Phone subsidies are virtually a direct transfer of profits from the telcos to Apple.  Telcos and their shareholders resent being held hostage and forced to pay Apple exorbitant subsidies when there are similar hardware devices for less than the cost of the subsidy.  There's a real risk that more telcos will follow T-Mobile's lead.  What would be your projection for the stock price if more telcos balked at subsidies or decided they would sharply limit them (say $300 for 2 years...making Nexus 4 free and making the iPhone 5 $350 for 2 years)?


A story from Romania. Two years ago, when I bought my 16Gb iPhone 4 from Orange, I payed 200 Euro with a 2 years contract of 29 Euro. Next year, the iPhone 4S was sold at the same price with the same contract but also the other two big networks, Vodafone and Cosmote, has started selling the iPhone 4S for the same price. But this year was different. The 16Gb iPhone 5 is now 369 Euro with a 2 years contract of 31 Euro. And all three networks has raised the price at the same time. NO MORE SUBSIDIES!

Or you could buy the 16Gb iPhone 5 with a 23 Euros contract for... 499 Euro! At the same time you can buy the Samsung Galaxy S3 for 149 Euro with a 31 Euro contract or a HTC One X for 100 Euro with the same contract.

So, you have to chose between an iPhone 5 at 369 Euro or a Samsung Galaxy S3 at 149 Euro or a HTC One X at 100 Euro. The monthly average income is here about 300 Euro. Guess what phone people chose? Almost nobody buys iPhones anymore, but I see a lot of Galaxy S3 everywhere.

post #117 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post

There is no denying the results are very poor. 0% profit growth.

That's being stupid.

 

13 weeks vs 14 weeks, billions and billions invested.

post #118 of 144
Quote:
Originally Posted by philipm View Post

How big is China and does it really need a cheap iPhone?

Chinese per capita annual disposable income is around $3000, which doesn't sound like much. However, the top 10% pull in about 30% the total income, meaning their average is more like $9,000 (I could be a bit out because disposable income is the only average I could find for recent years, and people with higher incomes also have higher disposable incomes). $9k doesn't sound huge but in China it buys more than in the US and remember this is disposable income (per capita so an average household of 3 in this category would have $27000), so there is some discretion in how it's spent.

So China has a market of about 100-million people who can afford an iPhone at current prices. As another indicator, new car sales are currently running at around 19-million a year (vs. 15-million in the US), so there are plenty of people in China who could pay out a few hundred dollars for a phone if they wanted to.

The potential market would be a lot bigger if Apple produced a really cheap phone but if the Chinese economy continues to grow and some of the gross inequality is eliminated, wouldn't you rather be an aspirational brand for the emerging recently poor than a junk brand that those doing better would like to leave behind?

The more important statistic is that China's middle class is larger than the entire US population. China is already Apple's second largest market and on its way to becoming the largest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by arch View Post

There is no denying the results are very poor. 0% profit growth.

There's no denying that you don't know what you're talking about.

One week fewer than last year and flat profit - so profit was up 8% per week. Sales were up far more than that. Most of their competitors are suffering. And Apple warned investors that profit would be hit this quarter by billions of dollars in investment in new products that would generate profits that hit the bottom line next year.

Would it have been nice if Apple had increased profits by 50% again? Sure. But saying that the results are a disaster is just plain ridiculous.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #119 of 144

Possibly an expectation of the Next Big Thing has been priced in to Apple's stock for some time now, and as time goes by more investors lose faith. But someone (such as a true Apple fan) who still believes they will come up with it could hang on to their stock and come up roses.

post #120 of 144
I do believe Apple will make the Next Big Thing and their stock should be higher. And I think I know what it will be. Warning: crazy theory of the week coming up. This is not based on inside info, just their past patterns.
 
- Steve always liked "democratising" technology: the GUI to let *everyone* use a computer, desktop publishing to let anyone publish, the App store to let anyone publish an app, "The computer for the rest of us." Steve is gone but this is still in Apple's values.
- They like products where they can provide the whole widget/whole ecosystem
- Typically they go after markets where there is already an established market, but the products are still rudimentary/hard to use, and leverage their UX genius to make them easy to use.
- Typically they go after things that attach to a computer in some way.
- The thing they go after has to be something the CEO cares about, or it won't succeed. Tim doesn't care about TV, I bet he never even watches it. He loves operations and manufacture though.
 
Therefore I think there Next Big Thing they will do is 3d printers/prototypers for the masses:
- Democratize manufacturing itself
- Use brick and mortar Apple Stores to sell ink, use App Store to download blueprints to print. The next big market is not songs or movies or games but blueprints.
- Market exists but is still primitive. Much of the software is clunky Java apps. Use Apple software knowhow to make easier to use.
- The CEO knows all about manufacturing so even though he's not a product guy he should be able to get enthusiastic about this.
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AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple stock drops over 10% in after-hours trading during Q1 earnings call