or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple price targets reduced as company's growth slows to 'normal' levels
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple price targets reduced as company's growth slows to 'normal' levels

post #1 of 99
Thread Starter 
Apple is still growing, but not at the tremendous pace investors have become accustomed to over the last decade, which has prompted analysts to lower their price targets for the company's stock.

Products


Price target revisions for AAPL stock were issued following Apple's record earnings reported for the company's holiday 2012 quarter. But while Apple saw its best-ever profit and revenue, riding high on record iPhone and iPad sales, the company's stock tumbled more than 10 percent in after-hours trading.

Piper Jaffray


Analyst Gene Munster believes there are three main reasons why the stock traded down after hours on Wednesday:
  • iPhone units were below buy-side expectations of about 50 million.
  • Apple's new guidance methodology, employed for the first time on Wednesday, does not appear to leave room for "wild upside."
  • Based on the latest guidance, it's likely that gross margins will be down sequentially in March.

Because of the new gross margin guidance, Munster has reduced his projected calendar year 2013 revenue for Apple by 4 percent to $196.4 billion. He's also reduced his price target for AAPL stock from $875 to $767, but maintained an "overweight" rating.

AAPL
Source: Google


Topeka Capital Markets


Brian White also lowered his price target, given recent reductions in Apple's share price, from $1,111 to $888. But he remains bullish on the company and recommends that investors buy, with Apple's "recent rough patch" behind it and the company now "poised for better luck."

After Apple dropped 10 percent in after-market trading, it was trading at less than six times, excluding cash, White's calendar year 2014 earnings per share estimate.

"We believe there is quite a bit of bad news priced into the stock at current levels," he said.

Wells Fargo


Maynard Um said Apple's new way of providing guidance is "sparking fears" among investors, and could mean the end of "material upside to guidance." While it could create uncertainty in the near future, Um sees the resetting of Wall Street estimates as a good thing.

He also believes that the toughest year-over-year comparisons for Apple begin to ease in the second half of 2013. He also believes that greater economies of scale, presuming the next-generation iPhone has the same design as the iPhone 5, will improve the company's gross margins.

Wells Fargo has maintained its "outperform" rating for AAPL stock, but lowered its valuation range for the company to between $600 and $630.

iMacs
Apple blamed iMac production difficulties in part for disappointing Mac sales.


ISI Group


Brian Marshall admitted he has taken a "hatchet" to his calendar year 2013 estimates for Apple. His new earnings per share estimate for the company's calendar year 2013, for example, was cut 15 percent from $50 to $42.50.

Marshall believes that a lower-priced iPhone geared toward developing markets is "paramount to financial re-acceleration" for Apple. He believes Apple could sell an iPhone with a wholesale price of about $300 while still maintaining gross margins around 40 percent.

"We believe the end result would be price elasticity kicking in and driving a new phase of revenue/earnings re-acceleration, and AAPL shares would likely get their 'mojo' back," he said.

Morgan Stanley


Katy Huberty reiterated her overweight rating for Apple, calling the company's medium-term risk-reward an attractive option for investors. However, near-term catalysts for the company are limited, she admitted, as Apple faces tougher comparisons in the first quarter of calendar 2013.

As a result of this, Morgan Stanley has removed AAPL stock from its "Best Ideas" list for investors.

Huberty believes catalysts for Apple will begin in the company's June quarter, including an anticipated iPhone refresh, new iPads, and expanded carrier partnerships. She also noted that every $5 billion in share buyback conducted by Apple is expected to reduce the share count by 1 percent.

Needham & Co.


While most analysts have cut their price targets, Charlie Wolf reiterated his $750 target this week following Apple's earnings. He will, however, review the target in February, opting to not react immediately to the company's earnings.

But Wolf did reduce his fiscal 2013 earnings estimate to $45.70 billion, citing supply constraints on several products that have "put a damper on revenue growth."

"The ongoing risk in the Apple story continues to be whether the company can innovate at the same pace and with the same disruption that occurred during the Steve Jobs era as CEO," he said. "The price action of the stock following the release suggests the market does not believe it can."

Earnings
Apple CEO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer hosted Wednesday's call.


J.P. Morgan


Mark Moskowitz believes Apple's fundamentals and investor expectations continue to diverge. As such, he was "surprised" by the "sharp correction" that the company's stock took in after-hours trading on Thursday.

Moskowitz has reiterated J.P. Morgan's overweight rating for AAPL with a December 2013 price target of $725 holding fast.

"Without splitting hairs too much, we think the new guidance commentary is not much of a change and could restore beat-and-raise potential to the model," he said.

Moskowitz also believes the iPhone growth story is "far from over," particularly if supply constraints ease quicker than expected and LTE network expansion continues across the globe.

Deutsche Bank


Chris Whitmore isn't surprised that Apple's guidance for the March quarter was soft. But with the company at a "critical junction," he's reduced his price target to $575.

He believes Apple would be better served to introduce a lower-priced iPhone, which would allow the company to adopt what he called a "good, better, best" segmentation strategy.

In addition to prepaid markets, Whitmore believes there is substantial growth for Apple in larger form factor smartphones with screens larger than 5 inches.

Evercore Partners


Apple may be slowing, but the company is still growing, analyst Rob Cihra said. He has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL, but trimmed his price target from $750 to $675.

"We continue to see Apple effectively creating its own growth through innovative hardware+software engineering in a sea of otherwise commodity products, but now needing to digest the law of large numbers," he said. :Perhaps foremost, Apple's M.O. to date has been to cream the high-end off each market, but as the company's grown it may now need to target more of the mainstream."

RBC Capital Markets


Amit Daryanani believes Apple is "bent, not broken." He said this week's results are a sign that Apple is executing well as they shift to becoming what he called a "normal growth company."

But RBC has trimmed its price target for AAPL to $600, down from $725. The firm has maintained its "outperform" rating.

Canaccord Genuity


Michael Walkley believes Apple has a strong product pipeline that will reaccelerate the company's year-over-year earnings growth during the June quarter. The firm has reiterated its buy rating, but lowered its price target to $650.

Walkley believes Apple's "soft" guidance for the March quarter is a result of ramping supply of the iPhone 5 during the December quarter, along with what he believes could be an earlier-than-expected product transition for the iPhone in the first half of 2013.

JMP Securities


Alex Gauna has been known for a bearish outlook on Apple even in the company's best quarters. Following this week's results, he maintained JMP's "market perform" rating on the company's stock.

"We remain fundamentally neutral on the stock which we see as caught between the merits of its dividend yield that is approaching 2.5% and the risks to forward growth stemming from intensifying levels of competition, management changes, and execution miscues," he said.
post #2 of 99


Define normal
post #3 of 99
Funny how almost every one has Apple listed as 'overweight' or 'outperform'.

Obviously, if you drive the price down far enough, it's a 'buy'.

ETA: I just bought 37 more shares at 457.
Edited by jragosta - 1/24/13 at 6:52am
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #4 of 99

No opinion from Chineese investors ? (they have substantial financial means at their disposal ...)

post #5 of 99

Why must Apple innovate at the same pace they did?

 

They are the only ones doing something relevant at consumer-level... even if they innovate 0 in the next few years, they are still undervaluated. What are the others doing? Nothing! just copying and "bigger screens".

150 billions on cash, 0 debt and the biggest quarter the world has seen (revenue)?

 

Well... this is what the world gets for putting stupid irrelevant people without knowledge trying to "predict" things. They are losers, no one should listen to them... but they can manipulate every single stock, especially Apple,  because the majority of people are stupid, so if you want to make money you must think like a rock does.

 

I hate these disgusting creatures, the ones responsible for the current situation. Can you imagine the amount of money some people lost, because of these bastards and their underlings? Hard working people, that thought very well and played the game as it should be played, they lost because of this blatant corruption.

 

Apple will do great, but there's no room to be nice. If they want 1 trillion, they have to become ruthless and start buying printers just like samsung, and copy everything, monetize software, pollute the world with ads. Otherwise, f*ck the stock and the press and just keep doing your job, cancel dividends, put your army of lawyers against any single rumour "source" and that's it.

post #6 of 99

I'm wondering what price they're trying to hit today.  $450? Sooner or later there is going to be a volume spike.
 

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #7 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I'm wondering what price they're trying to hit today.  $450? Sooner or later there is going to be a volume spike.
 

I am very pleased with having got in for a few more at $458 (and change) this morning.

post #8 of 99
Apple is down 11% and Netflix is up over 40%. You can't make this stuff up. lol.gif
post #9 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Why must Apple innovate at the same pace they did?

 

They are the only ones doing something relevant at consumer-level... even if they innovate 0 in the next few years, they are still undervaluated. What are the others doing? Nothing! just copying and "bigger screens".

150 billions on cash, 0 debt and the biggest quarter the world has seen (revenue)?

 

Well... this is what the world gets for putting stupid irrelevant people without knowledge trying to "predict" things. They are losers, no one should listen to them... but they can manipulate every single stock, especially Apple,  because the majority of people are stupid, so if you want to make money you must think like a rock does.

 

I hate these disgusting creatures, the ones responsible for the current situation. Can you imagine the amount of money some people lost, because of these bastards and their underlings? Hard working people, that thought very well and played the game as it should be played, they lost because of this blatant corruption.

 

Apple will do great, but there's no room to be nice. If they want 1 trillion, they have to become ruthless and start buying printers just like samsung, and copy everything, monetize software, pollute the world with ads. Otherwise, f*ck the stock and the press and just keep doing your job, cancel dividends, put your army of lawyers against any single rumour "source" and that's it.

 

If Apple dont innovate they are  going to sell less, at lot less.   Margings are going to tank and EPS will keep dropping and the stock price along with it. 

 

Apple is charging a premium and takes huge margins.  To justify this you absolutly must be cutting hedge. Quality and cutting edge is not optionnal, this is why they focus on very few products and try to come out with the best .   What Apple need the most right now is multiple iphone models do cover different needs and of course innovation across the board in product cycles.  this is just to keep floating at current levels.  To growth they need a new product category.

 

BTW Apple went from 80% yoy growth to negative yoy, of course the stock is going to tank down the toilet with that. The only thing keeping this from going down to $200 is valuation was already cheap and the 137/share in cash.  Any other sotcks with high PE would have got annilated with a 90% drop with that kind of earnings.

post #10 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I am very pleased with having got in for a few more at $458 (and change) this morning.


I think it's fairly obvious that AAPL is worth a lot more than where it is right now.

 

Glad to see you were able to get a few.

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #11 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post



Define normal

 

 

Indeed, negavite growth is not normal, it just plain sucks.  And the thing that really enrages me is TC didnt do a single thing for the stock on the call, with the pile cash they add they could have double the dividend to support investors.  With 4% yield, value and income funds would have jump in to counter the carnage of all the growth stocks dumping Apple like its the plege.

 

Those guys are sitting on billions and are giving themselves huge amount of cash in options.


Edited by herbapou - 1/24/13 at 7:13am
post #12 of 99
So disappointing.

I predicted 100 Million iPhones sold. Apple only sold 47.8 million.

I predicted Apple would have $120 BILLION IN REVENUE for its first quarter. But Apple only did a PUNY ALL-TIME RECORD FOR ANY COMPANY IN HISTORY OF ONLY $54.5 BILLION IN REVENUE. What is up with that?

Apple ONLY had $13.1 BILLION IN PROFIT. Google had $2.9 BILLION in profit in the same quarter. Apple ONLY earned 4.5 times the profit of Google. I expected more more, much more.

Apple's $13.1 BILLION IN PROFIT also is less than all of Microsoft's $16 BILLION IN REVENUE. What's up with that? Shouldn't Apple's PROFIT ALONE BE GREATER THAN Microsoft's TOTAL REVENUE? After all, the iPhone business alone is larger than all of Microsoft. Apple's profit is only 2.9 times Microsoft's $4.5 BILLION IN PROFIT. I expected more more, much more.

I predicted Apple's Cash Hoard should be $250 BILLION by now. Yet Apple only has $137 BILLION in Cash. Don't they realize they don't have enough to buy all of Microsoft, Intel, Dell, RIM, Nokia, and Sony put together? Apple must be wasting a lot of money on nonsense expenditures.

I expected more more more more. So disappointing. Watch Apple's Stock sink. Soon Apple will be losing billions in revenue every quarter. The sky is falling. Apple's gonna die. Apple's gonna die.

Wahhhh. Wahhhh. Wipe me Mommy.
post #13 of 99

What nobody knows (but the more far-sighted realize) is that 2013 will be the year that Apple, seemingly out of nowhere, reimagines and revolutionizes yet another segment of the tech industry. 

 

The hilarious part of it all is that no pundit, no analyst, and those unfamiliar with just how strong Apple's fundamentals are, will see it coming. 

post #14 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jameskatt2 View Post

So disappointing.

I predicted 100 Million iPhones sold. Apple only sold 47.8 million.

I predicted Apple would have $120 BILLION IN REVENUE for its first quarter. But Apple only did a PUNY ALL-TIME RECORD FOR ANY COMPANY IN HISTORY OF ONLY $54.5 BILLION IN REVENUE. What is up with that?

Apple ONLY had $13.1 BILLION IN PROFIT. Google had $2.9 BILLION in profit in the same quarter. Apple ONLY earned 4.5 times the profit of Google. I expected more more, much more.

Apple's $13.1 BILLION IN PROFIT also is less than all of Microsoft's $16 BILLION IN REVENUE. What's up with that? Shouldn't Apple's PROFIT ALONE BE GREATER THAN Microsoft's TOTAL REVENUE? After all, the iPhone business alone is larger than all of Microsoft. Apple's profit is only 2.9 times Microsoft's $4.5 BILLION IN PROFIT. I expected more more, much more.

I predicted Apple's Cash Hoard should be $250 BILLION by now. Yet Apple only has $137 BILLION in Cash. Don't they realize they don't have enough to buy all of Microsoft, Intel, Dell, RIM, Nokia, and Sony put together? Apple must be wasting a lot of money on nonsense expenditures.

I expected more more more more. So disappointing. Watch Apple's Stock sink. Soon Apple will be losing billions in revenue every quarter. The sky is falling. Apple's gonna die. Apple's gonna die.

Wahhhh. Wahhhh. Wipe me Mommy.

 

 

youre obviously have no clue at all on how stocks are price....

post #15 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Indeed, negavite growth is not normal, it just plain sucks.  And the thing that really enrages me is TC didnt do a single thing for the stock on the call, with the pile cash they add they could have double the dividend to support investors.  With 4% yield, value and income funds would have jump in to counter the carnage of all the growth stocks dumping Apple like its the plege.

Who's talking about negative growth? When you adjust for the different number of weeks, Apple still had significant growth last quarter.

And using cash to manipulate stock is foolish. That would tell investors that Apple doesn't have a plan but rather is reacting to every blip in the market. It's far, far better to use the cash for strategic investments and keep a significant reserve. If you feel that the cash is more than you need for your plans, then you distribute it to investors in a measured, planned way. That is, just what Apple is doing. Simply jumping in with a massive dump of cash is ridiculous.

Now, it might be reasonable for Apple to accelerate their stock buy-back with the cash. Stock buy backs, by their nature, depend on the price of the stock. Apple could easily justify the statement that they were planning to buy $10 B worth of shares over the next year but due to the undervalued stock price they're accelerating that.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #16 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


youre obviously have no clue at all on how stocks are price....

That's OK. Neither does Wall Street.

There's absolutely no rational reason for Apple to be trading at 7 times forward, cash-adjusted P/E and dropping over 10% when they just had a record quarter and beat their guidance (as well as most of the analysts' predictions).
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #17 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That's OK. Neither does Wall Street.

There's absolutely no rational reason for Apple to be trading at 7 times forward, cash-adjusted P/E and dropping over 10% when they just had a record quarter and beat their guidance (as well as most of the analysts' predictions).

These were the projections:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/tag/quarterly-earnings/

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #18 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What nobody knows (but the more far-sighted realize) is that 2013 will be the year that Apple, seemingly out of nowhere, reimagines and revolutionizes yet another segment of the tech industry. 

 

The hilarious part of it all is that no pundit, no analyst, and those unfamiliar with just how strong Apple's fundamentals are, will see it coming. 


Some may think I've put on my rose colored glasses but I agree with you.

 

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155430/apples-jan-23-earnings-conference-call-viewed-as-most-important-in-10-years#post_2257697

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #19 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

 

If Apple dont innovate they are  going to sell less, at lot less.   Margings are going to tank and EPS will keep dropping and the stock price along with it. 

 

Apple is charging a premium and takes huge margins.  To justify this you absolutly must be cutting hedge. Quality and cutting edge is not optionnal, this is why they focus on very few products and try to come out with the best .   What Apple need the most right now is multiple iphone models do cover different needs and of course innovation across the board in product cycles.  this is just to keep floating at current levels.  To growth they need a new product category.

 

BTW Apple went from 80% yoy growth to negative yoy, of course the stock is going to tank down the toilet with that. The only thing keeping this from going down to $200 is valuation was already cheap and the 137/share in cash.  Any other sotcks with high PE would have got annilated with a 90% drop with that kind of earnings.

Apple had 8% more profit yoy (13 vs 14 weeks) with all the production problems we already knew.

They had the biggest yearnings in history.

 

and you are vomiting this?

 

Why can't Apple just use a bigger screen and ARMs base chip architecture with 0 innovation, just like everyone else and let the ecosystem and brand power do the rest? They would still sell more highend phones than anyone else, and making the same profit (look at the galaxy line).

 

Please, don't say such BS.

post #20 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Funny how almost every one has Apple listed as 'overweight' or 'outperform'.

Obviously, if you drive the price down far enough, it's a 'buy'.

ETA: I just bought 37 more shares at 457.


Is it true that these analysts drove the price down? Most (all?) have been steadfast in publishing price targets of $550 to $750, if not higher.

post #21 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What nobody knows (but the more far-sighted realize) is that 2013 will be the year that Apple, seemingly out of nowhere, reimagines and revolutionizes yet another segment of the tech industry. 

 

The hilarious part of it all is that no pundit, no analyst, and those unfamiliar with just how strong Apple's fundamentals are, will see it coming. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Some may think I've put on my rose colored glasses but I agree with you.

 

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155430/apples-jan-23-earnings-conference-call-viewed-as-most-important-in-10-years#post_2257697


Rose-colored or not, some pundits have in fact been predicting such disruptive products (e.g. Munster). Of course, whether it will emerge in 2013 remains to be seen. Remember this - iPod came out in 2001l; iPhone in 2007 and iPad in 2010. There is no pattern to when new product classes emerge. It may take another 6 years.

post #22 of 99
I don't,know why they had flat earnings. I haven't what the reasoning is behind it. But I just see this as a BUY opportunity. Apple has to fix the supply issues which I'm sure they will and since it doesn't seem like a demand issue, then I'm not worried. Plus, the second they sign China Mobile is the day this stock should explode. I actually like the news that they have lots of government and corporate accounts buying product in large quantity, that's a good sign.
post #23 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

 


Rose-colored or not, some pundits have in fact been predicting such disruptive products (e.g. Munster). Of course, whether it will emerge in 2013 remains to be seen. Remember this - iPod came out in 2001l; iPhone in 2007 and iPad in 2010. There is no pattern to when new product classes emerge. It may take another 6 years.


Well, by mentioning Munster, you just popped my balloon.  1smile.gif

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #24 of 99
these people aren't analysts. they're crappy soothsayers, and reactionaries.
"Personally, I would like nothing more than to thoroughly proof each and every word of my articles before posting. But I can't."

appleinsider's mike campbell, august 15, 2013
Reply
"Personally, I would like nothing more than to thoroughly proof each and every word of my articles before posting. But I can't."

appleinsider's mike campbell, august 15, 2013
Reply
post #25 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Is it true that these analysts drove the price down? Most (all?) have been steadfast in publishing price targets of $550 to $750, if not higher.

IMHO it's a mixture of the Media, a strange hatred for Apple by so many and Wall Street manipulation. The way on the one hand these 'experts' suggest Apple needs volume with more lower end products then on the other freak out when a slightly reduced (yet still way ahead of anything else in this universe) profit margin appears due to the success (rather than failure) of the iPad Mini. It is totally absurd.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #26 of 99
Remember that the price swings in Apple stock price have zero to do with Apple's true goal of creating great, high-quality products that its customers like.

This is all about people who try to make money off of guessing what the Apple price will be at a certain point in time. I would hate to call them "investors" - they don't really invest in a company - that is too long-term. They are looking to make money on the short-term movement of the stock price. They are gambling more than investing.

If you look at Apple's financial fundamentals and market positions the company is in fantastic shape. What other company can match their revenues and margins on that scale?

The "not innovating" line is nonsense. You don't create revolutionary products like the iPhone or iPad every year. What other company is innovating and delivering it in REAL PRODUCTS like Apple.

Technology media is constantly hyping the next greatest thing because they need to sell ads, but how much of it is really that groundbreaking or game changing?
post #27 of 99

The thing is, the earning weren't flat.  If you did the math, 13 week vs 13 week or 14 week vs 14 week, the earning were up..  It's typical media BS that is saying earnings were flat.  And that, my friends, is a lie.  A group of people are manipulating the shares of Apple in order to make money.  That's all that is going on here..  Period.

post #28 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

I don't,know why they had flat earnings. I haven't what the reasoning is behind it. But I just see this as a BUY opportunity. Apple has to fix the supply issues which I'm sure they will and since it doesn't seem like a demand issue, then I'm not worried. Plus, the second they sign China Mobile is the day this stock should explode. I actually like the news that they have lots of government and corporate accounts buying product in large quantity, that's a good sign.

Are all of you guys insane? You people talk like if earnings were bad...

 

13.1 billion!!! no one is close... and yet the stock goes down. (remember, profit was up 8%. 13 weeks vs 14)

post #29 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Are all of you guys insane? You people talk like if earnings were bad...

13.1 billion!!! no one is close... and yet the stock goes down. (remember, profit was up 8%. 13 weeks vs 14)

Indeed!
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #30 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Are all of you guys insane? You people talk like if earnings were bad...

 

13.1 billion!!! no one is close... and yet the stock goes down. (remember, profit was up 8%. 13 weeks vs 14)

 

These two things are unrelated. The market cap should reflect the NPV of all expected future payouts. That and nothing more.

 

If expected future payouts decrease, so should the stock price.
 

It is quite insane to believe that increased earnings should automatically result in a higher stock price. That makes no sense whatsoever.

post #31 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Are all of you guys insane? You people talk like if earnings were bad...

 

13.1 billion!!! no one is close... and yet the stock goes down. (remember, profit was up 8%. 13 weeks vs 14)

 

The stock market is a confidence game. If someone goes from posting amazing growth (50%+ YoY) every quarter to something approaching no growth, confidence will be lost.

 

As a consumer it means very little - Apple is a very healthy company that still makes amazing products and continues to innovate. It just sucks to be an investor right now.

post #32 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by igxqrrl View Post

 

These two things are unrelated. The market cap should reflect the NPV of all expected future payouts. That and nothing more.

 

If expected future payouts decrease, so should the stock price.
 

It is quite insane to believe that increased earnings should automatically result in a higher stock price. That makes no sense whatsoever.


You know not what you have done...  1tongue.gif

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #33 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by igxqrrl View Post

These two things are unrelated. The market cap should reflect the NPV of all expected future payouts. That and nothing more.

If expected future payouts decrease, so should the stock price.

That's mostly true. However, when you compare Apple's stock price to the NPV of expected future results (7 times forward, cash adjusted earnings) to the market average (18-20 times forward, cash adjusted earnings), there's a major disconnect.

One could argue that Apple's share price should have dropped after the latest earnings report (I don't think so since they actually exceeded last year and most of the analysts who thought their earnings would actually drop by about 2%, but it would be a legitimate argument). I can't, however, see any plausible way to argue that the current share price (and, therefore, the share price yesterday) is anyway reasonable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Is it true that these analysts drove the price down? Most (all?) have been steadfast in publishing price targets of $550 to $750, if not higher.

SOME have been fairly bullish on Apple. But others (and, more importantly, the media) have been making a big deal out of trivial issues and even fabricating stories when they had nothing to say. So, yes, it's not all analysts and the media shares a large part of the blame, too.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #34 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Funny how almost every one has Apple listed as 'overweight' or 'outperform'.

Obviously, if you drive the price down far enough, it's a 'buy'.

ETA: I just bought 37 more shares at 457.

agreed.  I added 30 more shares as well at 460.

 

at 3X cash, and the only thing limiting Apple profit is production lines and stores in China, and the major CapEx spend, I can't see the stock dropping another 10X.

 

I can't see Mutual Funds not picking up AAPL purely as an Income hedge... paying 2.3% yield, No LT debt, and still high margins.  

post #35 of 99
I'm sorry, does a single rational person on the planet expect an exponential curve to keep having exponential growth infinitely, especially in the realm of the sales of consumer products and the insanely complex logistics required to enable sales? Unreal. And if $55 Billion, 48million phones, and 22 million iPads in a quarter is considered 'normal', then **** me. If Apple can continue with these same stratospheric numbers and revenues, with 0% growth, they'll still remain the most successful company on the planet by far.
post #36 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That's mostly true. However, when you compare Apple's stock price to the NPV of expected future results (7 times forward, cash adjusted earnings) to the market average (18-20 times forward, cash adjusted earnings), there's a major disconnect.

 

Note that I explicitly said "future payouts", not "future results". Those are two different things.

 

A company that has as a policy never returning a single penny to investors has no value to those investors, even if it's raking in profits.

post #37 of 99

So they need to focus on a few products and they need more products? Which one is it?
 

Mac Pro, 8 Core, 32 GB RAM, nVidia GTX 285 1 GB, 2 TB storage, 240 GB OWC Mercury Extreme SSD, 30'' Cinema Display, 27'' iMac, 24'' iMac, 17'' MBP, 13'' MBP, 32 GB iPhone 4, 64 GB iPad 3

Reply

Mac Pro, 8 Core, 32 GB RAM, nVidia GTX 285 1 GB, 2 TB storage, 240 GB OWC Mercury Extreme SSD, 30'' Cinema Display, 27'' iMac, 24'' iMac, 17'' MBP, 13'' MBP, 32 GB iPhone 4, 64 GB iPad 3

Reply
post #38 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mario View Post

So they need to focus on a few products and they need more products? Which one is it?
 


Both

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #39 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by igxqrrl View Post

Note that I explicitly said "future payouts", not "future results". Those are two different things.

A company that has as a policy never returning a single penny to investors has no value to those investors, even if it's raking in profits.

That's absolutely false.

Many investors are happy to buy stock in the hopes that they will sell it for more in the future. In fact, since historically capital gains were taxed at a lower rate than dividends, many people preferred that.

There are plenty of companies which do not pay dividends who have done well. In fact, one could look at Apple. Until last summer, they never paid a dividend - and had one of the largest stock run-ups in history. Today, they're a dividend-paying stock and their shares are down about 40% from their peak.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #40 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

 

 

youre obviously have no clue at all on how stocks are price....

At this point, no one could have a clue at all on how AAPL is priced.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple price targets reduced as company's growth slows to 'normal' levels