or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple stock panic labeled "a premeditated flash dump"
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple stock panic labeled "a premeditated flash dump"

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
While pundits have taken it upon themselves to explain that investors were "disappointed" with Apple after it delivered its results last week, evidence points to "a premeditated flash dump" enable by high frequency trading algorithms.

A report by Philip Elmer-DeWitt, writing for Fortune, cited a blog entry by trading insider 'Tyler Durden,' which noted Nanex charts (one shown below) indicating trades of 800,000 Apple shares worth almost $300 million executed in 17 second intervals.

"In this case," the trader noted, "it looks like a very premeditated unloading" of Apple stock "in the last second, with the full knowledge it would shake the market. Why anyone would want (or wait until the very last second) to do that, while covering the offsetting ES short in the pair trade, to ramp the market into the close, is anyone's guess."



A variety of financial bloggers have offered an alternative explanation for Apple's decline, suggesting that investors collectively believe the company has run out of growth prospects. They point to the company's ostensibly flat quarterly earnings, as reported in comparison to the quarterly income statements from last year.

An apples and oranges comparison of quarters



However, Apple's earnings for the winter quarter of 2012, as Apple's executives have repeated called attention to before, both during and after last year's earnings, involved an extra, 14th week. This extra week is added to Apple's fourth calendar quarter (Apple's fiscal Q1) every five or six years.

Subsequently, as explained by Robert Paul Leitao in "The Mysterious Case of Apple's Missing Growth," this year's quarterly report effectively hid billions in new revenue relative to the previous year's quarter.

"On a weekly basis," Leitao wrote, "Apple's revenue was $4.2 billion in the recent December quarter versus $3.3 billion in the prior-year period. On an equal week basis, revenue in the quarter rose 26.7%."

The report added, "most observers look to the income statement to determine the company's growth. However, Apple's balance sheet that accompanied the December quarter revenue and earnings numbers tells a much different story. It's not so much that Apple's rates of growth have declined, it's an issue of discovering where the current rates of growth are reported."

More invisible billions within Apple



Leitao drew attention to Apple's sizable $132 billion cash pile, on top of the $2.5 billion distribution to shareholders and $2 billion allocated to the company's stock buyback plan.

But he also drew attention to other billions that aren't always considered by investors looking at Apple's operations. Apple continues to defer revenue for Mac and iOS devices it has sold in order to provide free software updates over the course of those products.

At the end of 2012, "Apple's deferred revenue balance totaled $7.274 billion," Leitao noted. "Most of this deferred revenue balance will be recognized as net sales over the next eight fiscal quarters."

Apple also declares US tax expenses on its cash holdings in advance, even though it doesn't have to pay those taxes until it chooses to bring those earnings into the US. "In the December quarter, Apple deferred $1.179 billion in income tax expense," resulting in a total of $14.712 billion in tax expenses that Apple has preallocated, but not actually paid.

"Should a sizable portion of these dollars be repatriated," Leitao stated, "it would not trigger additional tax expense. It would trigger the payment of taxes already recognized as tax expense in past quarterly periods."

He concluded, "The balance sheet will tell a different story than the quarterly income statements for the first half of the current fiscal year. As gross margin improves over the next few quarters and Apple aligns supply with continuing product demand, Apple's underlying rates of growth in FY2013 will become more clear."
post #2 of 68

They'll be regretting it long before the end of 2014.

 

I'll be interested in seeing what the other big players offer up in the same time frame.


Edited by nonimus - 1/27/13 at 12:51pm
post #3 of 68
Another attempt to pump people about Apple's stock.

When wall street want the stock to go up, it will.
post #4 of 68
I'm not a market genius but that sounds like stock manipulation to me.
post #5 of 68
It seems like this would be illegal if you ask me.

Mac Mini (Mid 2011) 2.5 GHz Core i5
120 GB SSD/500 GB HD/8 GB RAM
AMD Radeon HD 6630M 256 MB

Reply

Mac Mini (Mid 2011) 2.5 GHz Core i5
120 GB SSD/500 GB HD/8 GB RAM
AMD Radeon HD 6630M 256 MB

Reply
post #6 of 68
An extremely questionable "coincidence" was posted by the Wall Street Journal - I speculate this is the real reason WHY the Dump of Apple stock happened the last second -

Big brokerages were selling "Apple Bonds". If the price TANKED then bondholders, who were giving a 10% return supposedly, would instead be paid with Apple shares .. i understand based on the price you paid at the time you purchased the Apple Bond. Net result - if the dumping party could cause the stock to tank the very last second so it could not pop up before close (which is what happened), then Brokerages issuing the Apple Bonds make what, 10s or hundreds of millions? A big brokerage person tried to sell me this .. I vaguely listened at the time... how many "conservative" big brokerage customers thought they were safe rather than buying the stock??? The stock will bounce big time. I think this whole crash this week was driven by brokerages - big guys - with these crazy instruments .. standing to make tens / hundreds of millions if they could cause the stock to crash until last Friday.

Here is the link to the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578263941939124314.html
post #7 of 68
Whatever the reason (most likely automated trading software getting "sell" signals), Apple is now in a prime position to initiate their buyback program.

Maybe Samsung is behind the whole thing... 1biggrin.gif

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #8 of 68

I suspect that Samsung was happy.

 

However, this I believe relates to that Apple Bond HUGE RIP-OFF among the bondholders.

 

This is a replay of Madoff behavior.  Old /Conservative investors take the stretch... like the con-job from their brokerage saying this is secure way to invest in Apple ... someone actually said that to me around when we were in high 600s I recollect. 

 

If it is too good to believe- it is.

 

I say .. suspicious big time .. last second dump makes how much for the issuers of that bond?   Wall Street Journal nailed it - I would love to know how many hundresds of millions were put into those bonds by naive investors - and how much was made because of this "flash crash" "accident" "allogrithym) ??? really .. .a machine did it ... or some entity standing to make how much by the last second dump of shares???

post #9 of 68
The only upside to any of this is Apple buying back their stock cheap.
post #10 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyuestateplanninglawyer View Post


An extremely questionable "coincidence" was posted by the Wall Street Journal - I speculate this is the real reason WHY the Dump of Apple stock happened the last second -

Big brokerages were selling "Apple Bonds". If the price TANKED then bondholders, who were giving a 10% return supposedly, would instead be paid with Apple shares .. i understand based on the price you paid at the time you purchased the Apple Bond. Net result - if the dumping party could cause the stock to tank the very last second so it could not pop up before close (which is what happened), then Brokerages issuing the Apple Bonds make what, 10s or hundreds of millions? A big brokerage person tried to sell me this .. I vaguely listened at the time... how many "conservative" big brokerage customers thought they were safe rather than buying the stock??? The stock will bounce big time. I think this whole crash this week was driven by brokerages - big guys - with these crazy instruments .. standing to make tens / hundreds of millions if they could cause the stock to crash until last Friday.

Here is the link to the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578263941939124314.html

This is a very intriguing point....

 

I truly wish the SEC would look into this.

post #11 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyuestateplanninglawyer View Post 
I would love to know how many hundresds of millions were put into those bonds by naive investors ......

I don't know if they're 'naive' or not, but according to the WSJ article, $700M+..... an amount that would, as marginal trades, be more than sufficient to roil the daily market price in a stock such as AAPL.

 

Is the SEC required to investigate if an individual investor lodges a complaint? Anyone know?

post #12 of 68

Wonder.  The largest holders of those shares being Korean?

An Apple man since 1977
Reply
An Apple man since 1977
Reply
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

I'm not a market genius but that sounds like stock manipulation to me.

Of course it's stock manipulation.  They really downplayed the fact that they are paying dividends now whereas they weren't a year ago.  I think they have one or more quarters with dividends being paid compared to not.

 

In defense of Apple, they have the demand, it's just a supply issue and it takes them a couple of quarters to roll their products out and we don't know what the REAL demand of each product is for at least 3 to 6 months after each product has rolled out completely and there is at least one or two full quarters of sales metrics.

 

I think Apple should not wait until all at once to roll out there products.  The reasons?  One, it confuses the customers with too much information as only certain products will get the attention that there is a new product version.  Secondly, it's hard to get the production levels up, especially if there are yield issues or vendor production issues that need to worked out, especially with new components like screens and processors.  The rest of the components should be fairly easy to make with high yield rates if they are basically pre-existing components like RAM, SSD, etc.

 

I also think that Apple would have WOWED the industry with two different screen sizes.  One that is 4 inch and the other that is larger, a la 4.5 inch for the people that do want a larger screen.  Even though most probably want a 4inch screen, there is, I believe, a decent amount that would prefer larger.  So give people more choices.

 

I hate to admit, but the LIghtning connector was not well received.  Micro USB would have been better received, but that's a decision Apple went with right, wrong, indifferent.

 

I think Apple should separate out the product roll outs and make them available when the product is ready to ship.

 

Obviously, switching away from Samsung was thrown in for extra added complications.

 

The Maps issue could have been avoided if they spent another 6 months in testing and just kept quiet on it and brought some other features to iOS instead.

 

Looking forward, this stock is DIRT CHEAP. The demand is there, they have more products in the pipeline, and they are increasing, but the supply of products limited their growth last quarter.  I can see HUGE growth when they sign China Mobile, and when/if they make some BIG announcement in the AppleTV product line in the way of HDTVs as they need some new product line.

post #14 of 68

Looking at comparisons, Microsoft is trading at a P/E of 15, which is about right.  Google is trading at P/E of 22, which is a little overvalued.  Apple is trading at P/E of 9+.  HELLO, McFly!!!!!  Bueller? Bueller?  Anyone? Anyone?

 

Apple, should be trading at around 15.  But I'm sure it will get back up to that level when some MAJOR announcements are made.

post #15 of 68
Just trying out to post a readable image of the small one that AI has posted in the article


Welp, also looks crap. But with good eye sight one can read it by clicking on it, as opposed to the one in the article.

The original is even bigger @1200*800 (external link)

And if you don't want to look at the graph; it's showing the decline on 1/25 right before 16.00.
Edited by PhilBoogie - 1/27/13 at 2:05pm
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
post #16 of 68

I'm not surprised. There's a lot of BS and manipulation taking place. AAPL is huge, and is bound to attract all sorts of shady characters.

 

Having said that, I think that any investor in Apple (not the big firms and the crooks, but the average small time investor), selling their shares of AAPL now is dumb.

post #17 of 68
Probably Samroid made the trades
post #18 of 68

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:35pm
post #19 of 68
Samsung is kicking the crap out of Apple and Wall Street is happy Apple is finally getting beaten to the ground for charging insanely high prices for its products. Wall Street hates companies that sell costly, high-quality products. WS wants all products sold to be cheap and pumped out at high volume to flood the market. That's the best way to make huge gains quarter to quarter. That type of cheap product always shows growth potential in a way Apple products never could.

WS is trying to force Apple to play by the rules by punishing the stock for slowing growth even though the company is making a decent amount of money. That's why they keep saying Apple should build cheap products to compete with everyone else in a race to the bottom of profit margins. Hopefully, Apple won't give in, but Apple shareholders would like to see some returns, somehow. I think Apple should acquire some additional revenue stream outside of hardware, so they can continue to build high-quality products and yet increase their revenue stream.

Anyway, Apple has fallen out of WS's favor and that's the way the cookie crumbles. Most investors don't care because every other company's shareholders are making money and the stock market is nearly at an all-time high. It's only Apple shareholders who are big losers and they're just getting what they deserve for their supposedly snooty arrogance of Apple selling expensive products to other snobs. I think that's what Jim Cramer said. I'm hanging onto my Apple stock because it may just go back up a $100 or so in another six months and in the meantime I'll be getting my dividends.
post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Summary:

One blogger offers random speculation so wild not even he himself can explain it. 
The rest of the world thinks it's just investors adjusting expectations.
Digler's going with the random speculation.

So what you're saying? DED on arrival? (Lame, I know. It's late where I am...)
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
post #21 of 68
Isnt the real issue Apple's forecasts for next quarter? 4-8% revenue growth is kind of shockingly low considering the last two second quarters were 83% and 60% respectively. Obviously no one expects that kind of growth for long, but 4-8? Throw in a drop in margins from 47% to 38% and it's shaping up like a significant EPS drop which would be the first in years no?

I have yet to read why 3rd and 4th quarters will be better. I understand they might be if a low cost phone is introduced or margins expand as costs for a new product drop, but absent that wouldnt it be logical to apply 2nd quarters projections to the two historically weakest quarters of the year?
post #22 of 68
Isn't Tyler Durden the character that Brad Pitt played in Fight Club? The same character that wanted to destroy every financial institution and have everyone's credits reset to zero?
post #23 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mengel View Post

Isn't Tyler Durden the character that Brad Pitt played in Fight Club? The same character that wanted to destroy every financial institution and have everyone's credits reset to zero?

Might've been. I don't care: that movie was off the hook, this one isn't even by the book.
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
Reply
post #24 of 68

Are you being serious or sarcastic?

 

What those armchair CEOs on Wall Street say is meaningless because in the grand scheme of things, it's cash flow that's going to keep your business in good shape, not a trophy signed by the Wall Street bigwigs. The first-place trophy isn't going to pay employees' salaries, fund R&D on the next product, or pay component suppliers. A business needs cash flow in order to to these things.

 

Market share doesn't automatically translate into strong profitability and cash-flow generating potential. The dot-com bubble proved that this model doesn't work. The list of companies that tried to chase market share at the expense of profits, hoping that they would be able to work on making more money after getting the dominant market position would fill several books. If you keep spending more than what you take in, you will eventually run out of money.

post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mengel View Post

Isn't Tyler Durden the character that Brad Pitt played in Fight Club? The same character that wanted to destroy every financial institution and have everyone's credits reset to zero?

That's the one.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

Goodbyeee jragosta :: http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/160864/jragosta-joseph-michael-ragosta

Reply

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

Goodbyeee jragosta :: http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/160864/jragosta-joseph-michael-ragosta

Reply
post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Samsung is kicking the crap out of Apple and Wall Street is happy Apple is finally getting beaten to the ground for charging insanely high prices for its products.

Samsung is kicking the crap out of Apple?

Let's see:
Samsung: (phones, tablets, computers, CPUs, screens, heavy industry, dozens of other products)
Revenues - $52.9 B
Net income - $6.6 B
Warns of slowdown for 2013

Apple: (phones, tablets, computers)
Revenues - $54.5 B
Net Income - $13.1 B
Forecast is for continued growth, albeit somewhat slower.

Yep. Samsung is really kicking the crap out of Apple. /s
Quote:
Originally Posted by vvswarup View Post

What those armchair CEOs on Wall Street say is meaningless because in the grand scheme of things, it's cash flow that's going to keep your business in good shape, not a trophy signed by the Wall Street bigwigs.

And the figure that is often ignored is that Apple's cash flow increased by 33% last quarter.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #27 of 68


However, Apple's earnings for the winter quarter of 2012, as Apple's executives have repeated called attention to before, both during and after last year's earnings, involved an extra, 14th week. This extra week is added to Apple's fourth calendar quarter (Apple's fiscal Q1) every five or six years.

Subsequently, as explained by Robert Paul Leitao in "The Mysterious Case of Apple's Missing Growth," this year's quarterly report effectively hid billions in new revenue relative to the previous year's quarter.

"On a weekly basis," Leitao wrote, "Apple's revenue was $4.2 billion in the recent December quarter versus $3.3 billion in the prior-year period. On an equal week basis, revenue in the quarter rose 26.7%."

The report added, "most observers look to the income statement to determine the company's growth. However, Apple's balance sheet that accompanied the December quarter revenue and earnings numbers tells a much different story. It's not so much that Apple's rates of growth have declined, it's an issue of discovering where the current rates of growth are reported."

More invisible billions within Apple



Leitao drew attention to Apple's sizable $132 billion cash pile, on top of the $2.5 billion distribution to shareholders and $2 billion allocated to the company's stock buyback plan.

But he also drew attention to other billions that aren't always considered by investors looking at Apple's operations. Apple continues to defer revenue for Mac and iOS devices it has sold in order to provide free software updates over the course of those products.

At the end of 2012, "Apple's deferred revenue balance totaled $7.274 billion," Leitao noted. "Most of this deferred revenue balance will be recognized as net sales over the next eight fiscal quarters."

Apple also declares US tax expenses on its cash holdings in advance, even though it doesn't have to pay those taxes until it chooses to bring those earnings into the US. "In the December quarter, Apple deferred $1.179 billion in income tax expense," resulting in a total of $14.712 billion in tax expenses that Apple has preallocated, but not actually paid.

"Should a sizable portion of these dollars be repatriated," Leitao stated, "it would not trigger additional tax expense. It would trigger the payment of taxes already recognized as tax expense in past quarterly periods."

He concluded, "The balance sheet will tell a different story than the quarterly income statements for the first half of the current fiscal year. As gross margin improves over the next few quarters and Apple aligns supply with continuing product demand, Apple's underlying rates of growth in FY2013 will become more clear."

 

1. Yes it's 14-week quarter last year, but the effect on net income should be small (a 1-2 out of 14 increase in net income is nothing major)

2. Reasons like cash, deferred tax etc etc, are irrelevant since those things happened last year too. 

3. It claimed "when gross margin improves ..." but margin suppression has been the major concern. That guy gave no reason why gross margin would improve when people are shifting to buy lower margin products like iphone 4 and iPad mini. 

post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I don't know if they're 'naive' or not, but according to the WSJ article, $700M+..... an amount that would, as marginal trades, be more than sufficient to roil the daily market price in a stock such as AAPL.

 

Is the SEC required to investigate if an individual investor lodges a complaint? Anyone know?

 

Is the SEC required to investigate if an individual investor lodges a complaint? Anyone know?
 
Haha, funny.
 
Reaganomics and Thatcherism (remember them, or are you too young to?) effectively emasculated the SEC in the USA and the UK with Deregulation ("You can't buck the Market" was their mindless mantra) and the rest of the gutless financial world, salivating uncontrollably, followed suit.
 
Chickens coming home to roost. AAPL is just one symptom of a cancerous global financial malaise.
post #29 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

This is a very intriguing point....

 

I truly wish the SEC would look into this.

 

They already are looking into it. Sooner, rather than later you'll read about grand juries.

post #30 of 68
I'm no financial guy by any stretch of the imagination but leading up to Apple's quarterly report there were numerous writings on this site and Macrumors that Apple was doing bad. Then we saw the stock fall. Next Apple reported the best goddamn quarter in their history and the stock still fell. WTF!
Aple's earnings didn't degress it progressed so why the effing sell off?
This whole things stinks.
And since Apple reported the best quarter in its history, missing some a** clown's estimate by 2 million iPhones is ludacris.
Somebody is going down!!!
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by airmanchairman View Post

Is the SEC required to investigate if an individual investor lodges a complaint? Anyone know?
 
Haha, funny.
 
Reaganomics and Thatcherism (remember them, or are you too young to?) effectively emasculated the SEC in the USA and the UK with Deregulation ("You can't buck the Market" was their mindless mantra) and the rest of the gutless financial world, salivating uncontrollably, followed suit.
 
Chickens coming home to roost. AAPL is just one symptom of a cancerous global financial malaise.

Groan.

When you grow up, you'll understand the question better. Also, the antecedents of the 'global financial malaise' are so much more complicated than Reaganism/Thatcherism. For example, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which Clinton championed; or the creation of a monetary union by eurocrats without creating a central bank with teeth or a common fiscal policy, etc.
post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post

1. Yes it's 14-week quarter last year, but the effect on net income should be small (a 1-2 out of 14 increase in net income is nothing major)

Flat profits over 14 weeks instead of 18 means that the stock actually went up almost 8%. That's a reasonable number - considering that the previous year's quarter was a record and the rest of the industry is reporting slowdowns.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #33 of 68

Everyone knows that there is no manipulation of the markets. It's all natural buy and sell¡
 

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post
 

3. It claimed "when gross margin improves ..." but margin suppression has been the major concern. That guy gave no reason why gross margin would improve when people are shifting to buy lower margin products like iphone 4 and iPad mini. 

 

I can't remember Oppenheimer's exact words but he said that r&d and infrastructure costs involved in bringing a plethora of new products to market helped to dampen margins and that Apple was committed to improve margins in the future.

 

I have to ask; does this mean that Apple does not intend to bring any new products to market for a while? I think that kills any idea that an Apple branded tv is coming to market. What about the costs involved in helping TSMC ramp up production of the 28nm chips?

 

I don't think I want Oppenheimer saying what he said. It sounds like that's the last of the big intros... but I really doubt that it is.

 

Was that just to placate investors?

 

Didn't we read another report that Apple is increasing spending in the infrastructure and r&d area?

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #35 of 68

First rule of investing.  Never lose principal.  Second rule is don't fall in love with a stock.  First rule of fight club is don't talk about fight club (Tyler Durden).

 

I was a 5 year holder of apple stock.  Sold not on the earnings release as I thought that was actually fine although the trend is starting to show rapid deceleration.  That aside once I heard management state that no dividend boost or additional buyback was on the table I hit the sell button.  Got out in the 475 range.

 

I believe, as does the street, that apple is never going to do anything with that money for shareholders.  It burns 2% net after investment income each year to inflation. Apple is not a large acquisition machine and maybe should not be.  When companies get this much cash they tend to overpay and burn through it in bad purchases.  What they should do is give it to the owners but it has been made clear this won't happen.

 

The current 10B buyback over 3 years (about $3/share per year) goes to offset stock option grant dilution.  Doesn't shrink the float.  No benefit to shareholders.  The buyback in context is meaningless.  At this pace it would take 25 years to get you back to 700 if the stock stays flat. 

 

Cook and the board are intent on the continued hoarding of the cash to save for a rainy day.  They know in tech those days come and they may start burning that cash pile to stay in business.  It will keep them in business for quite some time but the upshot is that shareholders aren't going to get it, period.

 

As such and for that reason only I sold.  I only invest in companies who are very shareholder friendly.  The tell for me should have been when they did no special dividend but even more so the refusal like half the S&P 500 companies to simply move Q1 dividend ahead so it was paid to shareholders before the end of 2012 to avoid tax hike.  They could not even do this.  Message received loud and clear Tim.

 

Money has been deployed to other stocks that will make back the 50% plus necessary that it will take now for apple to reach the old high.  Less downside risk and way more upside in other companies now.  Large numbers and competition do matter.  I thought I'd get some breaks with simple market sentiment and expanding PE but that has no chance and the stock remains broken across the board.

 

Cook blew it completely.  Let the stock go and decided to ignore it.  Would have been fine if they had total blowout numbers but they didn't.  He could have done a 50B to 100B buyback along with a 20/share dividend and a 10 for 1 split.  When the stock cratered 20% he should have been all over that.  He can only blame himself and the board now.  This is the team to make great products maybe but not one that is financially savvy (money sits in bank forever losing to inflation) nor one that understands or even wants to play in the stock game. 

 

Great companies with years of growth and 5 or 10 bagger potential ahead of them with little downside.  Take a look around.  I was in love with Apple stock for 5 years until the conference call.  I realized as an owner of Apple I was not going to share in the spoils.  That is reserved for the board and management only.

post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post

 

1. Yes it's 14-week quarter last year, but the effect on net income should be small (a 1-2 out of 14 increase in net income is nothing major)

2. Reasons like cash, deferred tax etc etc, are irrelevant since those things happened last year too. 

3. It claimed "when gross margin improves ..." but margin suppression has been the major concern. That guy gave no reason why gross margin would improve when people are shifting to buy lower margin products like iphone 4 and iPad mini. 

 

I'm not sure why people seem to keep focusing on the last quarter and the numbers reported when the issue appears to revolve around next quarters guidance.  4-8% growth and margins of 37.5-38.5 all but guarantee an EPS drop from 12.30 to 10.50 or so.  To put that in perspective revenue grew in the 2nd quarter by 83% and 60% in 2011 and 2012 respectively with correspondingly large moves up in EPS.

 

I think your 3rd point is very valid.  Margins have fluctuated in the past, but lower margin products like the the mini and a lower priced phone, if rumors are true, would make that less likely going forward.  That would be fine if revenues continued to increase at a good clip, but at 4-8% it would take 3 years to get back to 12.30.

 

Oh well, at least 2013 wont be dull.

post #37 of 68

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:34pm
post #38 of 68

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:34pm
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

I think your 3rd point is very valid.  Margins have fluctuated in the past, but lower margin products like the the mini and a lower priced phone, if rumors are true, would make that less likely going forward.  That would be fine if revenues continued to increase at a good clip, but at 4-8% it would take 3 years to get back to 12.30.

You're confusing profits and revenues. Revenues actually continued to increase at double digit rates.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

AI reported a rumor that Apple is moving some R&D activities from California to Shanghai:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/18/rumor-apple-to-open-shanghai-rd-center-this-summer


That works, but I was actually thinking about this report:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155622/apple-to-spend-10-billion-on-innovation-expansion-in-2013

na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple stock panic labeled "a premeditated flash dump"