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Apple's iOS, Google's Android account for record 92% of smartphone shipments

post #1 of 119
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The smartphone market is increasingly becoming a two-horse race between Google and Apple, with little room left for competitors outside of Android and iOS.

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The latest data from Strategy Analytics reveals that 70.1 percent of smartphones shipped in the fourth quarter of 2012 were Android devices, while 22 percent were iPhones. With the two platforms accounting for 92.1 percent of shipments, that left just 7.9 percent for all other operating systems, such as Windows Phone or BlackBerry.

"Combined together, Apple and Android accounted for a record 92 percent share of all smartphones shipped globally in the fourth quarter of 2012," said Scott Bicheno, senior analyst at Strategy Analytics. "The worldwide smartphone industry has effectively become a duopoly as consumer demand has polarized around mass-market Android models and premium Apple designs."

The research firm's data found that although Apple saw its sales grow 29 percent year over year, its market share was down slightly, from 24 percent a year ago to 22 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Android, meanwhile, nearly doubled its shipments from 80.6 million units at the end of 2011 to 152.1 million in the holiday quarter of 2012. Android's share of the global market increased from an estimated 51 percent of shipments to 70 percent at the end of 2012.

In all, nearly a half-billion Android phones are said to have been shipped in calendar 2012. In comparison, Apple shipped 135.8 million iPhones in the same span.

"Android is clearly the undisputed volume leader of the smartphone industry at the present time," said Neil Mawston, executive director at Strategy Analytics. "Android?s challenge for 2013 will be to defend its leadership, not only against Apple, but also against an emerging wave of hungry challengers that includes Microsoft, Blackberry, Firefox and Tizen."
post #2 of 119
I wonder how many of this 70% would rather have an iPhone if they only could?

Seems to me a hughe potential for Apple to grow beyond the wildest expectations.
post #3 of 119
Apple will compete in the mid-to-high-end market while I don't expect much from those other players: Microsoft, Blackberry, Firefox and Tizen.
Edited by ifij775 - 1/28/13 at 6:57am
post #4 of 119
If Apple release an iPhone 4 remade in plastic, available in multiple colors for $200 - $250, it would prove to be a strong contender in the developing markets. At its release, the iPhone 4 cost $188 to make (http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20009027-260.html). After 3 years, I would expect that cost to have fallen dramatically.
post #5 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Seems to me a hughe potential for Apple to grow beyond the wildest expectations.
Actually, Wall Streets wildest expectations have proven to be pretty wild indeed. They expect Apple to drop the price of everything to free to capture 110% of the marketshare while increasing profits 500% every two weeks, all while paying dividends and, well, simply handing cash over to Wall Street institutional traders just because.
post #6 of 119

The gulf between iOS and Android seems to keep widening. Both Apple & Google will continue to grow but I wonder how long it will be before Android has something like 90% Market share and Apple has 6% with everyone else making up the rest.

 

Sure Apple will likely control the profit margins, but it’s going very much like the Mac vs PC era.

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post #7 of 119
Someone is wrong somewhere. Some other company just estimated that Apple's worldwide iPhone marketshare ended the last quarter at 25.1%, an increase of 1.9% over the same quarter YOY. So who is right?
post #8 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The gulf between iOS and Android seems to keep widening. Both Apple & Google will continue to grow but I wonder how long it will be before Android has something like 90% Market share and Apple has 6% with everyone else making up the rest.

Sure Apple will likely control the profit margins, but it’s going very much like the Mac vs PC era.

So?
post #9 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The gulf between iOS and Android seems to keep widening. Both Apple & Google will continue to grow but I wonder how long it will be before Android has something like 90% Market share and Apple has 6% with everyone else making up the rest.

Sure Apple will likely control the profit margins, but it’s going very much like the Mac vs PC era.

No, it's not. Apple controls the profits. Apple's products are the solid winners when it comes to virtually every usage metric. Apple controls the show when it comes to developer profits.

Keep in mind that Strategy Analytics is one of those companies that calls almost anything with a keypad a 'smartphone'. They 70/20 split is not even close to representative of Apple's position in smart phones. By most accounts, it's a lot more even when you don't count the phones that are nothing more than glorified feature phones.

Not to mention, of course, the entire premise is flawed. Are these analysts totally incapable of understanding differentiation and segmentation? Apple isn't competing in the cheap-POS market and probably never will. Just as BMW or Mercedes don't compete in the cheap POS car market yet they're doing well. How is it that they can't comprehend such a simple concept?
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post #10 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Someone is wrong somewhere. Some other company just estimated that Apple's worldwide iPhone marketshare ended the last quarter at 25.1%, an increase of 1.9% over the same quarter YOY. So who is right?

Fundamentally, it comes down to what you consider a 'smart phone'. Some people include glorified feature phones and others include only high end smart phones.

As always, the answer you get is determined by the way you ask the question.
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post #11 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

If Apple release an iPhone 4 remade in plastic, available in multiple colors for $200 - $250, it would prove to be a strong contender in the developing markets. At its release, the iPhone 4 cost $188 to make (http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20009027-260.html). After 3 years, I would expect that cost to have fallen dramatically.
No, no and no. Didn't you hear Cook say on the investor call that Apple won't chase revenue for the sake of it? Android might have 70% market share but only one company has real profits - Samsung. I don't think Apple wants to give up profits for market share.
post #12 of 119

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Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:34pm
post #13 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
Keep in mind that Strategy Analytics is one of those companies that calls almost anything with a keypad a 'smartphone'. They 70/20 split is not even close to representative of Apple's position in smart phones. By most accounts, it's a lot more even when you don't count the phones that are nothing more than glorified feature phones.

If the 70-20 split is not even close to representative, what is the correct figure? How much is "a lot more"? How does Strategy Analytics  definition of a smartphone differ from others? You seem to be on a roll with different assertions this morning, but a bit lacking on support for them so far.

 

As you're typically quick to ask others, "where's the proof" for what you're claiming?

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post #14 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

No, no and no. Didn't you hear Cook say on the investor call that Apple won't chase revenue for the sake of it? Android might have 70% market share but only one company has real profits - Samsung. I don't think Apple wants to give up profits for market share.

I don't get your point. If a phone costs Apple $188 to make, and it sells it for $250 that is about a 30 percent profit margin. The original poster pointed out that was the original build cost for the iPhone 4 and presumably the build cost is less now, so margins would be higher if Apple came out with a phone based on the iPhone 4 internals.

Further Cook also said Apple will look at all markets. Apple wants a big presence in China. To do so, it needs a cheaper phone to strike a deal with China Mobile. Samsung has free reign there.
post #15 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


So?


Well, I for one don't want to find out if there is a tipping point where the proliferation of Android devices increases to the point where it compels developers to build for Android first, or, worst case scenario, where it marginalizes Apple even more causing a huge decrease in profits.

 

I'm not saying that there is a tipping point but the danger is definitely there and, as we've seen with the Mac, it's a long climb back.

 

[please know that I am mainly concerned about the Asian market]

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post #16 of 119
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Originally Posted by TBell View Post

I don't get your point. If a phone costs Apple $188 to make, and it sells it for $250 that is about a 30 percent profit margin. The original poster pointed out that was the original build cost for the iPhone 4 and presumably the build cost is less now, so margins would be higher if Apple came out with a phone based on the iPhone 4 internals.

Further Cook also said Apple will look at all markets. Apple wants a big presence in China. To do so, it needs a cheaper phone to strike a deal with China Mobile. Samsung has free reign there.

Cook better concentrates his effort on software that seemed to be less wowed these days than building cheap iPhones for cheap customers, if he's sincere about "building the best product" like he said.
post #17 of 119

I'm needing a little help wrapping my head around this one. I don't know much about the android ecosystem so please excuse my ignorance. Google makes android, OEM's build their phones and then put their flavor of Android on it. Can these different flavors all purchase Apps from the same online store or do they require an OEM specific store?

post #18 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The gulf between iOS and Android seems to keep widening. Both Apple & Google will continue to grow but I wonder how long it will be before Android has something like 90% Market share and Apple has 6% with everyone else making up the rest.

 

Sure Apple will likely control the profit margins, but it’s going very much like the Mac vs PC era.

This is how things looks right now. The biggest danger is that if Apple fall to 6% developers will stop creating the best apps for iOS. I don't know how was the software situation when Microsoft defeated Apple in the '90. Anyway Apple is not yet defeated. If they give up the greedy margin, start making a lot of phones, modernize the iOS, start including all the cutting edge advancements in the iPhones, take more wild bets like Google is doing with their glasses and self driving cars, they could still win.


Edited by NelsonX - 1/28/13 at 7:37am
post #19 of 119

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Edited by MacRulez - 5/16/13 at 12:33pm
post #20 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by sagan_student View Post

I'm needing a little help wrapping my head around this one. I don't know much about the android ecosystem so please excuse my ignorance. Google makes android, OEM's build their phones and then put their flavor of Android on it. Can these different flavors all purchase Apps from the same online store or do they require an OEM specific store?

They all purchase Apps from Google Play, which is the Google store for apps. Check https://play.google.com/store

post #21 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

They claim their report is about smartphones.  This is the point where Tallest Skil would be expected to add his customary, "Citation needed".

 

If you go to Strategy Analytics website and search on "define smartphone", we get this:

 

Quote:

"We define a smartphone as a pocket-friendly cell phone or wireless PDA with a branded high-level expandable operating system.

 

Typical examples of smartphone operating systems include Android, Apple iOS and Microsoft Windows Phone 8."

 

- Strategy Analytics

 

Some people claim that there are Android based feature phones, but they never seem to come up with an example.

 

I do remember that in the past, there were a lot of Symbian based phones which some people didn't consider full fledged smartphones, and that might be what jragosta is thinking of.

post #22 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

If Apple release an iPhone 4 remade in plastic, available in multiple colors for $200 - $250, it would prove to be a strong contender in the developing markets. At its release, the iPhone 4 cost $188 to make (http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20009027-260.html). After 3 years, I would expect that cost to have fallen dramatically.

How much profit and margin are there at those prices? Apple would have to put a different voice/data chip set in the phone. I don't think Apple has to start buying market share, that will further erode their margins.

Samsung is going to start feeling the effects of selling cheap phones and having to heavily discount to gain market share.

Obviously, the iPhone 5 will be next year's $100 2 year contract phone. Anything wrong with that?
post #23 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Well, I for one don't want to find out if there is a tipping point where the proliferation of Android devices increases to the point where it compels developers to build for Android first, or, worst case scenario, where it marginalizes Apple even more causing a huge decrease in profits.

 

I'm not saying that there is a tipping point but the danger is definitely there and, as we've seen with the Mac, it's a long climb back.

 

[please know that I am mainly concerned about the Asian market]

The iPhone is a Rolex in a sea of Timex's. The analysts are used to a different business model than Apple. They want Apple to be like GM and be the largest auto manufacture (Toyota since regained this mantle) and sell cheap crap to everyone. Or like Coke, or Walmart, or McDonald's, or Microsoft, or Google, or, HP, or Dell, RIM, Nokia, or Proctor and Gamble and and sell cheap crap to everyone.

post #24 of 119
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Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

They all purchase Apps from Google Play, which is the Google store for apps. Check https://play.google.com/store

The difference is that google phones are being sold to people without money. People without money don't spend much on apps and content. If android has 70% market share, then why is Apple's iTunes and App Store selling 4x the amount of Google's equivalent?
post #25 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Well, I for one don't want to find out if there is a tipping point where the proliferation of Android devices increases to the point where it compels developers to build for Android first, or, worst case scenario, where it marginalizes Apple even more causing a huge decrease in profits.

 

I'm not saying that there is a tipping point but the danger is definitely there and, as we've seen with the Mac, it's a long climb back.

 

[please know that I am mainly concerned about the Asian market]

 

The Asian market is the Asian market.  I would guess that only a fraction of the apps in the US app store have any asian language support much less covers Korean, Japanese, Chinese, Hindu, Thai, Vietnamese, Cambodian, etc...

 

App developers build for their local markets first, then the next few major markets.  China is important.  India is important.  Japan is somewhat important.  Korea is somewhat important.

 

Everyone else can use Chinese or English versions of the apps.

post #26 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

If Apple release an iPhone 4 remade in plastic, available in multiple colors for $200 - $250, it would prove to be a strong contender in the developing markets. At its release, the iPhone 4 cost $188 to make (http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20009027-260.html). After 3 years, I would expect that cost to have fallen dramatically.


That is why Samsung is eating Apple's lunch. Maybe $200-250 is too low, but a mid-range phone would be good. I consider all of their phones high-end cost-wise. Sell an unlocked phone for $350-400 and maybe Apple won't lose more market share. Apple is getting hammered. Outside of the US it's going to be 95% Android I bet, over time.

post #27 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

How much profit and margin are there at those prices? Apple would have to put a different voice/data chip set in the phone. I don't think Apple has to start buying market share, that will further erode their margins.

 

Not necessarily a different radio chip.  Remember, they only pay royalties on the patents they use.  If they never turned on or added LTE support, they wouldn't have to pay for it.   That's why many FRAND patents are paid for separately from the chips themselves.

 

Obviously, the iPhone 5 will be next year's $100 2 year contract phone. Anything wrong with that?
 
Nothing wrong with that, but it also doesn't affect the non-subsidized markets, unless the price drops dramatically there as well.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by sagan_student View Post

I'm needing a little help wrapping my head around this one. I don't know much about the android ecosystem so please excuse my ignorance. Google makes android, OEM's build their phones and then put their flavor of Android on it. Can these different flavors all purchase Apps from the same online store or do they require an OEM specific store?

 

To be able to be called "Android x.x"  (fill in the version), it must pass a standard compatibility test for that version.   That ensures that standard apps run on all devices with that version, and thus most developers target the standard x.x APIs.

 

The difference comes with specialty apps that rely on device-specific features.  For example, originally HTC and Samsung had their own pen APIs, but those have now been rolled into Android.   A more common example is with widgets that rely on a particular manufacturer's custom launcher.   E.g. a lot of people love HTC widgets, but most only run on HTC devices.  It's a way of differentiating their products.

post #28 of 119
Android shouldn't count because Google doesn't produce the cell phones that carry their free OS.
post #29 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

The iPhone is a Rolex in a sea of Timex's. The analysts are used to a different business model than Apple. They want Apple to be like GM and be the largest auto manufacture (Toyota since regained this mantle) and sell cheap crap to everyone. Or like Coke, or Walmart, or McDonald's, or Microsoft, or Google, or, HP, or Dell, RIM, Nokia, or Proctor and Gamble and and sell cheap crap to everyone.


While this may be true, is there any analyst that wants to see Apple's revenue and profits fall? Do you think Apple wants to see its revenue and profits fall? Do you really think that Cook wants to see Apple lose more market share?

 

If Apple is marketing itself as the Rolex of phones, well, that market is small and it can become quickly saturated. Apple would remain profitable but it would be a lot smaller than it is today.

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post #30 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post


The difference is that google phones are being sold to people without money. People without money don't spend much on apps and content. If android has 70% market share, then why is Apple's iTunes and App Store selling 4x the amount of Google's equivalent?

Along those lines, here's a recent article:

http://www.fiercedeveloper.com/story/distimo-google-play-revenue-climbs-43-apple-app-store-jumps-21/2013-01-22

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post #31 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

 

The Asian market is the Asian market.  I would guess that only a fraction of the apps in the US app store have any asian language support much less covers Korean, Japanese, Chinese, Hindu, Thai, Vietnamese, Cambodian, etc...

 

App developers build for their local markets first, then the next few major markets.  China is important.  India is important.  Japan is somewhat important.  Korea is somewhat important.

 

Everyone else can use Chinese or English versions of the apps.


... but that is exactly what I am saying. If Android dominates the Asian market then which platform will be the first choice amongst developers.

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post #32 of 119
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Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

They all purchase Apps from Google Play, which is the Google store for apps. Check https://play.google.com/store

 

Except they don't.  Google Play is essentially shut out from China. 

 

"Most Android devices sold in China have been stripped of Google’s advertising-supported apps and services, as well as its Google Play store for third-party apps and music, books, and video. 

...

The CEO of Baidu, the desktop Web search leader in China, said this year that 80 percent of Android-branded phones come with Baidu’s search service, rather than Google’s, loaded on the device."

 

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/507961/android-takes-off-in-china-but-google-has-little-to-show-for-it/

 

Yes, Android dominates but like in handsets the app ecosystem is also fragmented.  This is true for Apple as well in terms of how well apps are internationalized but at least the app is by default available in all app stores.

post #33 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

This is how things looks right now. The biggest danger is that if Apple fall to 6% developers will stop creating the best apps for iOS. I don't know how was the software situation when Microsoft defeated Apple in the '90. Anyway Apple is not yet defeated. If they give up the greedy margin, start making a lot of phones, modernize the iOS, start including all the cutting edge advancements in the iPhones, take more wild bets like Google is doing with their glasses and self driving cars, they could still win.


Apple was suffering pretty badly in the 1990's. They almost lost MS Office. Yes, as your share goes down, you reach a point where you can't likely dig out of a hole. Microsoft and RIM are there right now to struggle to grow share and developer support.

 

Their margins are too high. Not sure if it is greed, but they can no longer charge what they have charged in the past.

 

Their iPads with extra ram and LTE are way overpriced. Note, I've been using Apple products for 30 years.

 

Maybe I'll consider Android if Apple can't come out with a larger screen (not a freakishly long screen).

post #34 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


No, no and no. Didn't you hear Cook say on the investor call that Apple won't chase revenue for the sake of it? Android might have 70% market share but only one company has real profits - Samsung. I don't think Apple wants to give up profits for market share.

 

He didn't anything about chasing the profit. If Apple manages to get the build cost down to about $140 (which is very possible, it's been 3 years), the $200 price point would met 43% gross margin that Wall Street is looking for. Dropping the cost to $130, and voila, you have a fat 53% margin that is equivalent to the iPhone 5. That's revenue without sacrificing profit. Like Tim Cook said, cannibalization is not his concern. Better Apple eats Apple than anybody else.

post #35 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

I wonder how many of this 70% would rather have an iPhone if they only could?

Seems to me a hughe potential for Apple to grow beyond the wildest expectations.

That switch is currently under way. There's a VZW kiosk inside of a BJs Wholesale near that I often stop by mainly because the sales girl is hot but I almost always encounter someone switching from Android to iOS.
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post #36 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


... but that is exactly what I am saying. If Android dominates the Asian market then which platform will be the first choice amongst developers.

 

The platform of choice in China will be that determined to be the platform of choice by the CCP through it's official and unofficial control and influence over Baidu and other chinese companies.

 

/shrug

 

Cost is one thing but control is key.  Apple appears willing to play ball with the Chinese government but the ability to control every aspect of the Android must be mighty compelling to totalitarian governments.  An activist with any smartphone is a trackable activist but hugely more so if you put in special hooks in the OS to covertly activate GPS, mikes, etc...

post #37 of 119

We are not talking here about the Nokia Symbian based feature phones that counts toward Smartphone.

If it got Android OS (with or without keyboard) or iOS, Obviously  it is SmartPhone.

Study/Comparision of 70/20 here tells that 70% are Android OS, so We would assume those are not some old feature phones but actual smart phones.

post #38 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by sagan_student View Post

I'm needing a little help wrapping my head around this one. I don't know much about the android ecosystem so please excuse my ignorance. Google makes android, OEM's build their phones and then put their flavor of Android on it. Can these different flavors all purchase Apps from the same online store or do they require an OEM specific store?

They get apps from the same store. The core software is the same even if on the outside it looks different.
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post #39 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

 

Except they don't.  Google Play is essentially shut out from China. 

 

"Most Android devices sold in China have been stripped of Google’s advertising-supported apps and services, as well as its Google Play store for third-party apps and music, books, and video. 

...

The CEO of Baidu, the desktop Web search leader in China, said this year that 80 percent of Android-branded phones come with Baidu’s search service, rather than Google’s, loaded on the device."

There was a good debate about how Google should approach search in the China market here:

http://www.debate.org/opinions/should-google-try-to-prevent-the-chinese-government-from-censoring-search-engine-results

 

There's some unique reasons why Baidu gets the Chinese government nod of approval, while Google butts heads with them. There shouldn't be any surprise that Baidu would get the bulk of search requests considering the limitations forced on Google Search. IMHO it would be more distressing if Google was the market leader there as it would be clear evidence that they were deep in bed with the Chinese leadership.

http://www.cfr.org/china/us-internet-providers-great-firewall-china/p9856

This last link is an excellent read.

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post #40 of 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


They get apps from the same store. The core software is the same even if on the outside it looks different.

They also can get Android apps from multiple stores, ie Amazon App Store, Google Play, Baidu's web-based store.

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