Apple's iOS, Google's Android account for record 92% of smartphone shipments - Page 2

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Originally Posted by nht 

Quote:

Originally Posted by island hermit 

Well, I for one don't want to find out if there is a tipping point where the proliferation of Android devices increases to the point where it compels developers to build for Android first, or, worst case scenario, where it marginalizes Apple even more causing a huge decrease in profits.

 

I'm not saying that there is a tipping point but the danger is definitely there and, as we've seen with the Mac, it's a long climb back.

 

[please know that I am mainly concerned about the Asian market]

 

The Asian market is the Asian market.  I would guess that only a fraction of the apps in the US app store have any asian language support much less covers Korean, Japanese, Chinese, Hindu, Thai, Vietnamese, Cambodian, etc...

 

App developers build for their local markets first, then the next few major markets.  China is important.  India is important.  Japan is somewhat important.  Korea is somewhat important.

 

Everyone else can use Chinese or English versions of the apps.

You must be an american.

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Originally Posted by Gatorguy 

There was a good debate about how Google should approach search in the China market here:

http://www.debate.org/opinions/should-google-try-to-prevent-the-chinese-government-from-censoring-search-engine-results

 

There's some unique reasons why Baidu gets the Chinese government nod of approval, while Google butts heads with them. There shouldn't be any surprise that Baidu would get the bulk of search requests considering the limitations forced on Google Search. IMHO it would be more distressing if Google was the market leader there as it would be clear evidence that they were deep in bed with the Chinese leadership.

http://www.cfr.org/china/us-internet-providers-great-firewall-china/p9856

This last link is an excellent read.

In this sense Apple is more easily compatible with the Chinese market.  The parts that China cares about Apple doesn't care about that much (backend services) since that's primarily used to sell hardware whereas Google depends on that to make money.

Making the default search provider Baidu is no big deal.  

Having a local app store where the government has a say in app approval is not a big deal.

Funneling social media to chinese internet companies instead of Twitter, Facebook and Google+ is no big deal.

But to Google these are big deals because it cuts to the core of their business model.

I think that Apple would not provide a backdoor to the Chinese but that's probably not required anyway.  There are iOS vulnerabilities that I'm sure that Chinese have mapped out already.

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Originally Posted by Taniwha 

You must be an american.

A realist.  App devs, except the big boys, only have so much bandwidth for internationalization.  For the east asian market Chinese, Japanese and Korean are the only ones worth investing any effort in.  Even then the local app devs have a huge advantage unless you really are one of the big boys.

Likewise for the European market French, Spanish and German are the prime targets.

I would guess that most small indie app devs only do their own native language anyway.

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Originally Posted by dasanman69 


You're correct but except for the Amazon tablets all other Android devices come with the Google Play store as the native marketplace for apps.

Well, if they are hitting the Baidu store they probably don't have access to GooglePlay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nht 

 

In this sense Apple is more easily compatible with the Chinese market.  The parts that China cares about Apple doesn't care about that much (backend services) since that's primarily used to sell hardware whereas Google depends on that to make money.

 

Making the default search provider Baidu is no big deal.  

Having a local app store where the government has a say in app approval is not a big deal.

Funneling social media to chinese internet companies instead of Twitter, Facebook and Google+ is no big deal.

 

But to Google these are big deals because it cuts to the core of their business model.

 

I think that Apple would not provide a backdoor to the Chinese but that's probably not required anyway.  There are iOS vulnerabilities that I'm sure that Chinese have mapped out already.

I think Apple does provide certain governments back-door access in exchange for selling devices/services in certain markets.

I remember a document from last year (?) that indicated both Apple and RIM provide "OS keys" to Indian authorities for spying on users of their devices. As controlling as the Chinese are I have no doubt it's the same there.

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Originally Posted by dasanman69 

You just made it more confusing.

Because it is...

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Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach 

I wonder how many of this 70% would rather have an iPhone if they only could?

Seems to me a hughe potential for Apple to grow beyond the wildest expectations.

Targeting the bottom kills margins and profits. Samsung will eventually raise their pricing.

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Originally Posted by Gatorguy 

I think Apple does provide certain governments back-door access in exchange for selling devices/services in certain markets.

 

I remember a document from last year (?) that indicated both Apple and RIM provide "OS keys" to Indian authorities for spying on users of their devices. As controlling as the Chinese are I have no doubt it's the same there.

I found this:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-08-02/news/33001399_1_blackberry-enterprise-encryption-keys-corporate-emails

Which was later denied by RIM.

"RIM has been fighting with the Indian government for years, and has denied that it can provide access to its enterprise email and messaging services. This is because the company itself does not possess the encryption keys for the same and these remain in the control of its corporate clients."

http://news.techeye.net/mobile/rim-denies-handing-encryption-keys-to-india

I did not find any articles about Apple providing encryption keys to India.

Apple has the encryption keys to iCloud.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/04/apple-holds-the-master-key-when-it-comes-to-icloud-security-privacy/

These they can give China I suppose but there's no indication it has done so.  Anything you don't control the keys to isn't secure.

Whether device encryption keys are recoverable or stored by Apple I don't know.  But at that point they already took your phone and can simply beat your passcode out of you.

http://xkcd.com/538/

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Originally Posted by nht 

 

I did not find any articles about Apple providing encryption keys to India.

 

 

http://apple.slashdot.org/submission/1902912/leaked-memo-says-apple-provides-backdoor-to-govern?sdsrc=rel

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Originally Posted by KDarling 

 

To be able to be called "Android x.x"  (fill in the version), it must pass a standard compatibility test for that version.   That ensures that standard apps run on all devices with that version, and thus most developers target the standard x.x APIs.

 

The difference comes with specialty apps that rely on device-specific features.  For example, originally HTC and Samsung had their own pen APIs, but those have now been rolled into Android.   A more common example is with widgets that rely on a particular manufacturer's custom launcher.   E.g. a lot of people love HTC widgets, but most only run on HTC devices.  It's a way of differentiating their products.

Thanks, appreciate it.

This will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I look at this and think there is a viable concern for apple here. The concern being information. When you're able to collect vasts amounts of information from a huge sea of smartphones, 'true' smart phones or 'glorified feature' phones they still provide information, you're in an excellent position. Huge numbers of information devices, regardless of how much they cost, is key to providing features that aren't possible with other OS's that have a smaller sample size to mine from.

Case in point, car analogies or any other analogy that uses a phyiscal product fail to recognize the flaw in such an arguement. The reason there is room for high end vendors that produce physical products is that there IS a difference in what is being valued. Better parts, better assembly, etc are factors when considering how one wants to travel (what's being valued) from place to place. And yes, the same can be said for the decisions affecting purchasing of a phone; however, the cost of travel does NOT decrease exponentially and it also does NOT improve as more people start to travel. Information works differently. Settling into a high end niche of a market where the valued product is ever decreasing in cost and conversly continuing to appreciate in value as it grows is completely different and I'm not sure it's as sustainable.

It'll be interesting to see if the tortoise does catch the hare in this race. Personally I'm rooting for the tortoise.

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Originally Posted by jragosta 


No, it's not. Apple controls the profits. Apple's products are the solid winners when it comes to virtually every usage metric. Apple controls the show when it comes to developer profits.
 

I agree.

There is a great deal of talk about capturing sales to the billion+ by coming out with a less expensive iPhone - the thought, by some, is to provide a way for people to buy an iPhone who currently couldn't afford one.  This, according to some is supposed to help Apple's bottom line (which is in need of this help???).  The current data shows that Apple customers use their products (at a much higher rate) to make on-line purchases, apps, etc.  It would make little sense for Apple to try to attract potential customers who are less likely to buy additional Apple products or services, while still providing premium support for these new customers.  As was said in other posts, the Apple model is to provide premium quality and services for those who are willing to pay for the best.  Apple is not perfect, but is head and shoulders ahead of it's competitors - and, still provides the best, well thought out products around.

Not all people care, or can, pay the price for the best.  I was one that fell in that camp.  If I could "get by" with less, I would do so. I am a "PC convert" who dumped a Windows Vista machine, and have never regretted the move - there is only so much pain a person can endure :~).  Higher entry cost and my thought that one machine is about the same as another, were the only things delaying my jumping from the PC world.  I was not the desired potential Apple customer, as price was the driving force for me - and, at the time, I didn't mind "workarounds" and derived some sort of pleasure overcoming the shortcomings of the products.

Once getting my first Apple product (Mac Pro), it didn't take long to see my thinking was flawed - the feel, look and solid performance had value to me.  I am willing to pay more for these things, and want to minimize messing around with things that don't work well.  This isn't the case for all people, and for those, there are companies like Samsung who make products that can satisfy their needs and wants.  Apple should continue to leave that part of the market to others...

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Originally Posted by dasanman69 


That switch is currently under way. There's a VZW kiosk inside of a BJs Wholesale near that I often stop by mainly because the sales girl is hot but I almost always encounter someone switching from Android to iOS.

I hope they didn't switch just because of the hot sales girl. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gatorguy 

http://apple.slashdot.org/submission/1902912/leaked-memo-says-apple-provides-backdoor-to-govern?sdsrc=rel

Here's a bit longer article about Nokia, RIM, Apple and likely others evidently providing government access via OS back-doors (and perhaps other methods).

http://www.osnews.com/story/25486/Indian_Government_Memo_Apple_Nokia_RIM_Supply_Backdoors

For the foil-hat crowd another recent change to all the smartphone OS's, including iOS, raises questions about how much access goverments have to our communication devices.

http://www.techdevicereviews.org/technology-news/new-apple-ios-6-gives-government-back-door-access-to-control-your-iphone

There seems to be steadfast refusal amongst some here to accept that not everyone prefers an iPhone. Some of you seem to believe that, everything else being equal, iPhone would win over everyone in a "taste" test. That is just wrong. There are many people who like Samsung (or even HTC) because they do like the larger screen. There are many people who prefer the feel and look of Galaxy over that of the iPhone. There are many who prefer Android over iOS for various reasons. I am not necessarily one of those (and I have a Galaxy to go with my 3G, 4, 4S and 5).

The following "excuses" are old and we all need to get over them:

- Android activations include multiple activations for the same device (remember this one).

- Samsung only reports shipments and not sales.

- Salespeople undersell iPhones.

- Only the frugal prefer Android.

- Android is only winning in Asia and other 3rd world regions.

I understand that some of you are instinctively defending you $AAPL shares. But your lack of objectivity is hurting your investment portfolio more than any stock manipulation.

The real story is that the iPhone is not the only rational choice based on cost, look, feel, UI or engineering. Overall, Apple is still investing the most in manufacturing innovations. But this is either lost to some consumers, or is failing to win over some others because they simply don't like the Apple design theme. What some of you have to accept is that this view is not limited to a minority of the population.

Enjoy your phone, but stop deluding yourself you are smarter than the Galaxy owner who truly does exist.

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Originally Posted by saarek 

The gulf between iOS and Android seems to keep widening. Both Apple & Google will continue to grow but I wonder how long it will be before Android has something like 90% Market share and Apple has 6% with everyone else making up the rest.

 

Sure Apple will likely control the profit margins, but it’s going very much like the Mac vs PC era.

There are no parallels between the "Mac vs PC era" and the, for lack of a better name, smartphone era, so, why is it going to be, "very much like the Mac vs PC era?"

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Originally Posted by nht 

Cost is one thing but control is key.  Apple appears willing to play ball with the Chinese government ..

True.  I remember back when the first iPhones were sold in China without WiFi.  Much easier to track people without it.

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Originally Posted by sagan_student 

This will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I look at this and think there is a viable concern for apple here. The concern being information. When you're able to collect vasts amounts of information from a huge sea of smartphones, 'true' smart phones or 'glorified feature' phones they still provide information, you're in an excellent position. Huge numbers of information devices, regardless of how much they cost, is key to providing features that aren't possible with other OS's that have a smaller sample size to mine from.

 

Apple came out with Siri and Apple Maps, partly so they could share in all the information collection that's going on.

 

Combined with all the iTunes info (address, credit, media and app sales) they have on most people, they're then able to sell highly targeted ad slots (just like Google) via their iAds business.

 

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Originally Posted by dasanman69 

All recent statistics show that iOS devices get used more than Android so that isn't a concern for Apple or at least not yet.

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Originally Posted by jragosta 

I provided quite a few examples when this came up before. Google 'android feature phone'.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/gadgetreviews/samsung-unveils-android-based-galaxy-pro-feature-phone/22864
http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/leap-plans-android-feature-phone-wait-what/2011-10-12
http://brianshall.com/content/android-feature-phone-coming-you-next-year

The first one is mislabeled.   The others never happened, as far as I can tell.

This is not to say that Android wouldn't make a good base for a feature phone, but once they get that far in the design, I think the carriers go hey we want them to use data :-)

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Originally Posted by Gatorguy 

For the foil-hat crowd another recent change to all the smartphone OS's, including iOS, raises questions about how much access goverments have to our communication devices.

http://www.techdevicereviews.org/technology-news/new-apple-ios-6-gives-government-back-door-access-to-control-your-iphone

Are you suggesting that Android OEMs and Google aren't complying with the law and doing this too? Just wondering because of your emphasis on Apple, and lack of mention of Android. I mean, I know Google often doesn't comply with the law, but I doubt they've stopped Android phones from complying in this instance.

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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 


I agree with your premise. However... the Mac has always had single-digit market share compared to Windows... but it still has PLENTY of great software available.

If you were a developer... you'd think Windows is the place to be since there are so many potential customers. But how many of those customers actually purchase software? (excluding MS Office... that another thing altogether)

The Mac is still around today despite getting creamed by Windows decade after decade. And the software is there too.

Etc.

Well, as much as that may be true today it certainly wasn't true in the 90s.

One of the areas that Macs truly suffered was in the area of specialized software (ie. for controlling machinery, accounting programs). True there were Mac alternatives but the deluge of software for specialized areas was overwhelmingly in favour of the pc. The computer that people used in business tended to be what they used at home.

You also must remember that Mac was on its last legs before Steve came back. Without him I'd hate to think of where Apple would be today. Would it still be around today?

Which brings up another point. Do you really want Apple to be where it was in the 90s? Almost losing MS support for Office. Dying with puny revenue and profit in comparison to today.

You are comparing where Apple is at today... not Apple during the height of the Mac vs. PC war (for lack of a better word). If you are going to talk about Macs that's the era to revisit.

... but I never brought up Macs vs. PCs in comparison to iOS vs. Android in my initial statement... I just wanted to clarify something. (... and I did clarify that Asia was my main concern)

... and not once have I said that Apple couldn't remain profitable... but I have said it could become much smaller.

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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 

On the flipside... Android has the numbers... but how many paying customers? There are huge amounts of Android users that can't even get the Google Play store in their country.

According to a recent article Apple's Appstore is collecting nearly 4 times the daily revenue of Google Play, but Google's store revenue is growing faster than Apple's (as would be expected).

As far as country availability is concerned Google made a significant push in the latter part of 2012, adding quite a few countries. They could now actually have broader coverage than Apple's appstore rather than less.

http://support.google.com/googleplay/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=143779

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Originally Posted by anonymouse 

 

Are you suggesting that Android OEMs and Google aren't complying with the law and doing this too? Just wondering because of your emphasis on Apple, and lack of mention of Android. I mean, I know Google often doesn't comply with the law, but I doubt they've stopped Android phones from complying in this instance.

I imagine he was emphasizing Apple because many posters on this site automatically assume Google is selling out users to either the government or other corporations while assuming that Apple protects its users at all costs.  He was showing you that your beliefs are at least partially incorrect.

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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 


I agree with your premise. However... the Mac has always had single-digit market share compared to Windows... but it still has PLENTY of great software available.
 

No, there is not! Since many around here are shareholders I think you've heard of Tradestation? Where is the Mac version for Tradestation? Where is the Mac version for NinjaTrader? eSignal? Multicharts? Sierra Charts? If you are trading you are stuck with programs that run under Java. This is one reason why I never bought a Mac. It doesn't have the software that I need.

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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 


For sure... Apple in the 90s was a bad situation.

And that was kinda my point... Apple today is nowhere like that (even if they face a similar market share disadvantage once again)

Even with the Mac at 8% market share... people still love their Macs and developers keep making money selling Mac software. That's the key.

My point was... you don't need a lot of market share (or even a significant amount) to stay relevant. And I was saying that in response to your "tipping point" comment earlier.

Clearly the developers aren't dropping iOS because of its low market share

.

You are not getting it.

What I am saying is that Apple today could be at the point that Apple was at in 1988. Apple was doing well. Sculley had improved Apple's position considerably but he had absolutely no answer to Windows and the cheap PC. Without Steve's vision, or any vision whatsoever, Apple started treating Macs like soft drinks. Apple tried hard to come back but only began to flounder badly under 2 successive CEOs.

If you are going to talk about Macs vs. PCs then you have to review your history. You talk as if any person could have brought Apple back from the brink. Sculley couldn't do it. Spindler couldn't do it. ... and Amelio was doing better but then he hired Steve, which was the magic bullet. How many Steves do we have lying around to hire if things do start going south.

I don't think Apple would be around today if it hadn't been for Steve. If that was the case then your theory doesn't hold water and that's what I said... I don't want to find out if there is a tipping point... when Steve's vision is lost then what happens next.

Good position today? Sure. Good position tomorrow? Who's to say. I'm just saying that if you start comparing Macs to PCs, don't give me this crap about Macs still doing well today. That was purely because of one man. I can only hope that Cook isn't Sculley... and, lord save us, Spindler.

[if any is going to ask me if I know the answer... well, no I don't... but I'm damned sure it aint in a hair thin margin bottom of the barrel Performa phone sold at Sears and any corner store. ... but maybe for Asia only a slightly lower margin larger phone with an older processor but great battery life... then again, I also feel that a premium larger phone is a good idea for everywhere]

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Originally Posted by genovelle 


As long as the developers are actually making money on IOS which is something that they are not doing on this platform that supposedly has 70% of the market, they will continue to develop for it. 

I remember some survey from last year that supposedly showed more than half of all iOS developers lose money. I think there was another that showed half of all iOS app revenue was going to just 25 developers. Yet another I linked somewhere here earlier today claimed just 6 iOS tablet apps were taking 10% of the total tablet app revenue. It looks to me to be either feast or famine if you're a developer. 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 


Fine... forget everything I said about the Mac... let's stick to iOS.

70% to 20% sounds bad... right?

But it's really not. Even though the iPhone only has 20% of worldwide smartphone market share... the iPhone is still doing ridiculously well.

I'M SAYING THE MARKET SHARE NUMBERS DON'T MATTER

Even if it ended up being Android 90% and Apple 5%... there would still be hundreds of millions of iPhones out in the world. And tons of people buying apps, games, cases and accessories. It's a proven platform with a lot going for it.

IF... and it's a big IF.... if developers starting losing money on iOS... then we'd see a shift. But I'm seeing no indication of that.

Like genovelle said above... what good is all that Android market share if the bulk of devices are crappy phones stuck on an older OS?

Again... having a lower market share number is not the end of the world...

Oh boy...

So the Mac vs. PC thing wasn't working... so let's shift the argument.

Look back at my original argument. We're talking mostly about the Asian market. No matter who is making profit... if you ended up with a 95% Android (devoid of Google's crap) vs. 5% Apple, then, just like old days, there is a damn good chance that developers would feel "compelled" to market Android apps first, regardless if their profit margins were higher for the Mac.

As I said, there has to be an answer for the cheap smartphone or, yes, this could end up being Apple in 1992.

This whole business that market share doesn't matter is bullshit in my opinion. If you lose enough of it then your company gets smaller. You may or not retain profit but that is also up for debate.

The answer doesn't have to be another smartphone. Yes, Steve answered the Mac question first with the iMac, but then he branched out with the iPod, iPhone and then iPad.

Using your theory, let's imagine that Steve just stuck with Macs. Profitable. Maybe. ... but how big would Apple be today?