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Apple's current stock price doesn't reflect iOS 'stickiness,' analyst says

post #1 of 39
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While Apple's recent stock woes have been driven by investor concerns over the company's slowing growth, one analyst believes the current stock price does not reflect the "stickiness" that will cause existing customers to stay with Apple.

Deutsche


Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank has maintained his "buy" rating for AAPL stock, because he believes existing Apple customers will remain loyal to the company's platform. That means customers are likely to upgrade to new Apple hardware in the future.

Whitmore also believes Apple will continue to grow its user base, increasing shareholder value as more customers become tied in to the ecosystem. He believes that beyond apps, Apple-only features like iMessage and FaceTime also increase the "stickiness" of iOS.

"The key underpinning of this view is the stickiness of the iOS platform and the substantial and growing investment (both time and money) Apple users place in it," he said. "Although the U.S. phone market is well penetrated, we see substantial opportunity for Apple to grow its user base in emerging markets and further monetize existing iOS users through the living room (Apple TV, additional content, etc.)."

Deutsche


Cumulative dollars spent on iTunes, accessories and the App Store are at around $54 billion as of the December quarter. That spending is also growing between 20 and 30 percent year over year.

Whitmore estimates that there are about 400 million iPhones, iPads and iPod touches in use. With 40 billion cumulative application downloads, he estimates that there are about 100 applications downloaded per device.

He believes the average iOS device has about $130 in content, including applications and iTunes Store material.

"iOS users have made a significant investment in time and dollars into the iOS platform, and as a consequence the switching costs are remarkably high," he said.

Deutsche Bank has reiterated its "buy" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $575.
post #2 of 39
Well I'm 'sticking' with all my shares!
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post #3 of 39
Finally a analyst with some sense.
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post #4 of 39
What a sham. This is another analyst that omitted the extra week in the YOY comparison, leading to the 'disappointing earnings'. Yeah right. If most of the analysts advise buy over neutral or sell, why is AAPL not climbing to numbers that make sense? All these guys have great things to say about Apple, but out the other side of their mouths, they are saying something else.

We should just not listen to these guys. After all, what has he said that AI readers did not already know?
post #5 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetCanada View Post

Ecosystem. Apple is the only company that truly has one. You could argue Microsoft has one but their Windows, xbox and phones don't really talk and work together as elegantly as Apple.

Bingo! :) I've said it before, I will not buy electronic gear if it is not made by Apple. Apple's ecosystem has spoilt me! 

 

One only has to walk around a Best Buy and it's like walking back in time to the 90's with all the blue-black plasticky electronics with fake brushed aluminum plastic. Creaky manufacturing and clunky software interfaces. 

 

P.S. Of course, I have to have a printer (but less and less). I have a Brother MFC wireless with only one cable coming out the back, i.e., the power cable. (And, it's sitting in the closet so I don't have to look at it!)

 

TV? Nope, don't have one. Waiting for Apple to build one. :) DSLR? Yep, would like one but the cameras are too bulky and the interfaces too clunky.

 

Considering getting a NEST, and a BT speaker, though.

 

P.S.S. I wish Apple would make an all in one. Cable Modem-Router-TC. Again, only one power cord coming out the back! :)


Edited by christopher126 - 1/28/13 at 2:21pm
post #6 of 39
Trust me, my wife recently moved to her 920 (amazing phone btw) and Apples stickiness really pissed her off.

Once a telephone number is in iMessage, it stays there almost forever meaning she was having problems SMSing with friends who's phones all tried using iMessage to contact her.

Sadly for Apple all that did was made her vent to her friends about the lock in that Apple has and how bad a company they are for it.

Apple would much rather she left with a rosy glow about Apple, not with the memory of frustration.
post #7 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Funny how they make sense when they tell you what you want to hear.

Not what I want to hear but what I've repeatedly said on here. It's not a far stretch of the imagination that anyone that's invested in a platform long enough will not leave it regardless of what the competition may bring.
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post #8 of 39

I've wondered how much content will a person really buy from Amazon if they are going to buy one of the cheapest tablets out there. What happens to Amazon if they only use it to download free apps and surf the web?

post #9 of 39
How does a company such as Apple that makes so much money suddenly become worthless in a few scant months? What puzzles me is how a company that is sitting on $137 billion is "worth" less than companies that can't earn that much money in ten years. It seems I can't wrap my head around value. Netflix was able to add two million customers at $7.99 a head which results in about $16 million dollars in added revenue. How is this worth a 40% jump in share price.

There's nothing to prove Netflix has a great future because rivals could easily cut into that growth. I tested the service as a trial and it's nice, but there's no stickiness to it at all. I watched it for a while and then cancelled. If Apple were to introduce a rival service what would happen to Netflix? Apple certainly has the money to do so and have more than enough credit card holders. I'm only saying that forecasting great futures doesn't really guarantee anything. A dollar is still worth a dollar and the more dollars you have available, the more a company should be worth.
post #10 of 39
I don't trust the Deutsche Bank. My price target is still $1,111, Topeka Capital Markets' Brian White can't be that wrong. I noticed that Brian has bizarrely reduced his price target to $888 lately, I guess that he just got all new numbers to revise it down but I think he is overly-pessimistic there.
post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Not what I want to hear but what I've repeatedly said on here. It's not a far stretch of the imagination that anyone that's invested in a platform long enough will not leave it regardless of what the competition may bring.

 

This is true...as much as Windows continues to suck and not improve, people keep buying it because they've already invested in it. Its not always cheap to switch platforms, nor is it always easy. If someone has $500 worth of iOS apps, they'd lose everything by switching the Android, or Windows Phone OS. 

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post #12 of 39
Please, AI, can you stop with the anayst reports? For every positive outlook on AAPL there's a corresponding negative outlook. I thiink most of us understand that an analyst is just a glorified bullshit artist. We don't need this crap.
post #13 of 39
I much don't care what the stock does, but it's a fascinating and entertaining story to watch!
post #14 of 39

This analysis will not make remove a single dent in the Apple trash can that the rest of the analysis has put Apple into. There are far bigger players in the market messing with the stock. I said this before, it is not hard to figure out what is happening here. It is a lot harder for the Market to bump Apple stock 10 or 20 points up from when it was $700 share, the next best thing is to short the hell out if it and create FUD. Everyone bails and the stock falls fast and hard and the same investors just made 10 or 20 or more points in 3 short months. The only question now, can those same people think it is easier to drive it back up yet again or it is just simple to kick the trash can again and make Apple look worthless.

 

Keep in mind the investment companies doing this know that Index funds must carry apple stock and must maintain a certain % of share of Apple stock and will buy as stock drops and will sell as it goes up so maintain balance.

 

This analysis is just playing into the game, FUD and Anti FUD the question is which one will be the stronger driving force. As we all know Apple value is not based on anything it is doing right or wrong. The same is true for any number of company who we all know are barely making money or in fact loosing money.

post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by realwarder View Post

Trust me, my wife recently moved to her 920 (amazing phone btw) and Apples stickiness really pissed her off.

Once a telephone number is in iMessage, it stays there almost forever meaning she was having problems SMSing with friends who's phones all tried using iMessage to contact her.

Sadly for Apple all that did was made her vent to her friends about the lock in that Apple has and how bad a company they are for it.

Apple would much rather she left with a rosy glow about Apple, not with the memory of frustration.

I don't see how this can happen.  My phone will switch from iMessage to SMS if the other phone turns off iMessage or even if they are in a bad reception area and iMessage can't go through.  I have many conversations where I will have a few SMS messages innner mixed with my iMessages

post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

How does a company such as Apple that makes so much money suddenly become worthless in a few scant months? What puzzles me is how a company that is sitting on $137 billion is "worth" less than companies that can't earn that much money in ten years. It seems I can't wrap my head around value. Netflix was able to add two million customers at $7.99 a head which results in about $16 million dollars in added revenue. How is this worth a 40% jump in share price.

There's nothing to prove Netflix has a great future because rivals could easily cut into that growth. I tested the service as a trial and it's nice, but there's no stickiness to it at all. I watched it for a while and then cancelled. If Apple were to introduce a rival service what would happen to Netflix? Apple certainly has the money to do so and have more than enough credit card holders. I'm only saying that forecasting great futures doesn't really guarantee anything. A dollar is still worth a dollar and the more dollars you have available, the more a company should be worth.

What Netflix is only viewed on iDevices? The millions of Rokus, PS3s, Xbox 360s, PCs, etc don't count for anything?
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post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

This analysis will not make remove a single dent in the Apple trash can that the rest of the analysis has put Apple into. There are far bigger players in the market messing with the stock. I said this before, it is not hard to figure out what is happening here. It is a lot harder for the Market to bump Apple stock 10 or 20 points up from when it was $700 share, the next best thing is to short the hell out if it and create FUD. Everyone bails and the stock falls fast and hard and the same investors just made 10 or 20 or more points in 3 short months. The only question now, can those same people think it is easier to drive it back up yet again or it is just simple to kick the trash can again and make Apple look worthless.

 

Keep in mind the investment companies doing this know that Index funds must carry apple stock and must maintain a certain % of share of Apple stock and will buy as stock drops and will sell as it goes up so maintain balance.

 

This analysis is just playing into the game, FUD and Anti FUD the question is which one will be the stronger driving force. As we all know Apple value is not based on anything it is doing right or wrong. The same is true for any number of company who we all know are barely making money or in fact loosing money.


Nice post. Those traders that shorted the stock have moved on. They are not coming back to APPL for awhile, especially as there are juicy targets like Netflix and Amazon around.

post #18 of 39
Ok, iMessages appear to be increasing positively as a function of iOS installed base growth (Figure 8). I guess there's some value in that. The funny thing is, though, Figure 1 suggests that iOS users as a whole are spending less money per device (less than $140) nowadays compared to close to $180 per device in mid-2010. Yes, overall revenues may be increasing with a rising iOS installed base, but the revenue per iOS device appears to be decreasing in relation to it.

It's difficult to tell simply by inspecting this chart, but there may be a significant inverse relationship between iOS platform adoption and the financial investments in iOS apps and media that tend to lead to platform stickiness. That's not such a great trend and appears to contradict a central point of this analyst's main conclusion, that iOS user's financial investments in the platform are increasing.
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post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by realwarder View Post

Trust me, my wife recently moved to her 920 (amazing phone btw) and Apples stickiness really pissed her off.

Once a telephone number is in iMessage, it stays there almost forever meaning she was having problems SMSing with friends who's phones all tried using iMessage to contact her.

Sadly for Apple all that did was made her vent to her friends about the lock in that Apple has and how bad a company they are for it.

Apple would much rather she left with a rosy glow about Apple, not with the memory of frustration.


Here is how you fix:

1. Turn on iPhone (hope you kept it)

2. Turn off iMessage on the iPhone

3. Turn off iPhone

 

If you get frustrated with something this simple, heaven help you and your wife on Android.

Something to remember before you sell your iPhone. Turn off iMessage!


Edited by TeeJay2012 - 1/28/13 at 3:36pm
post #20 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndirishfan1975 View Post

I don't see how this can happen.  My phone will switch from iMessage to SMS if the other phone turns off iMessage or even if they are in a bad reception area and iMessage can't go through.  I have many conversations where I will have a few SMS messages innner mixed with my iMessages

 

iMessage just needs to be turned off before you migrate to another phone, or you get this behavior. Something to remember before you sell your iPhone.

post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post


Here is how you fix:
1. Turn on iPhone (hope you kept it)
2. Turn off iMessage on the iPhone
3. Turn off iPhone

If you get frustrated with something this simple, heaven help you and your wife on Android.
Something to remember before you sell your iPhone. Turn off iMessage!

The Nokia 920 is a Windows phone.
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post #22 of 39

Just sign into iCloud and remove those phone numbers from iMessage. How is Apple supposed to know you switched phones like that? Just learn to maintain your information. You don't get mad at Facebook for telling your friends your address didn't change after you moved do you?

post #23 of 39
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post
The Nokia 920 is a Windows phone.

 

Lol, thanks Dasanman I needed the laugh.  The poster is saying turn off iMessage BEFORE you get rid of your iPhone.  I guess it is hard to idiot proof things.

post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Lol, thanks Dasanman I needed the laugh.  The poster is saying turn off iMessage BEFORE you get rid of your iPhone.  I guess it is hard to idiot proof things.

Well his wife did have a iPhone and switched to a Nokia 920 which TeeJay2012 assumed was a Android phone.
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post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I am sure Microsoft thought the same about Apple at one point. We have no clue who the competition might be 5 or 10 years from now. While I don't buy into the Apple is going to crash and burn, in fact I just bought more stock the other day lets remember when you have the top position there is only one place to go.

Last I checked MS still has a pretty sizable marketshare. MS is in decline more due to their own missteps than anything else. The big switch from MS to Apple started innocently with the iPod and only sped up with the iPhone/iPad.
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post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndirishfan1975 View Post

I don't see how this can happen.  My phone will switch from iMessage to SMS if the other phone turns off iMessage or even if they are in a bad reception area and iMessage can't go through.  I have many conversations where I will have a few SMS messages innner mixed with my iMessages

For regular SMS messages, person to person, it does kind of work - it delays messages around 5 minutes before the first one gets through.

For group messages, it just doesn't ever work.

Result = frustrated user
post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post

Just sign into iCloud and remove those phone numbers from iMessage. How is Apple supposed to know you switched phones like that? Just learn to maintain your information. You don't get mad at Facebook for telling your friends your address didn't change after you moved do you?

The "address" didn't change. The telephone number is the same...

And the iPhones are set to SMS if you cannot sent an iMessage.... so the bug is in the iPhone not sending the SMS in group chats.
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post

iMessage just needs to be turned off before you migrate to another phone, or you get this behavior. Something to remember before you sell your iPhone.

Yes, well we know that now.

Not exactly obvious until you've worked it out.

Thankfully we had the iPhone still here and put her new SIM back in and then turned iMessage off.

Apple should really have a web site to do this - what if the phone was broken and we replaced it. What if it was stolen? Etc...

I DID log into the Apple support website where the phone was shown as being registered and DE-registered it which I would EXPECT to remove it from iMessage, but no, that didn't work either.
post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post

Just sign into iCloud and remove those phone numbers from iMessage.

Where is this in iCloud. I've just checked in case it was here... but cannot see any such option.
post #30 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post


Here is how you fix:
1. Turn on iPhone (hope you kept it)
2. Turn off iMessage on the iPhone
3. Turn off iPhone

If you get frustrated with something this simple, heaven help you and your wife on Android.
Something to remember before you sell your iPhone. Turn off iMessage!

You forgot step 4, which is your friends have to reboot their phones too... else they still try iMessaging.
post #31 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775 View Post

I've wondered how much content will a person really buy from Amazon if they are going to buy one of the cheapest tablets out there. What happens to Amazon if they only use it to download free apps and surf the web?

They'll make it up in volume 1cool.gif

But seriously... that's one concern I've had about Amazon ever since the original Kindle Fire.

They're not making much money (if any) on the Kindle Fire hardware. So they are counting on people buying music, movies, apps and games to offset that.

Are they?

Then again... Amazon sells a ton of ebooks... which are tiny files which cost almost nothing to transmit. And Amazon earns $3 from every $10 ebook they sell.

Maybe Kindle ebooks are the big thing... and all the apps and games are just filler.
post #32 of 39
That logic only makes sense if you wanted to take all your apps with you to a new phone. The majority of apps people have are games, but games have a limited time that they are actually used before being replaced with newer games. So it doesnt matter if someones spent $200 on apps, $180 of them arnt used any more anyway.
post #33 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

That logic only makes sense if you wanted to take all your apps with you to a new phone. The majority of apps people have are games, but games have a limited time that they are actually used before being replaced with newer games. So it doesnt matter if someones spent $200 on apps, $180 of them arnt used any more anyway.

Then perhaps you have a different explanation as to why iOS user retention is so much higher than Android user retention.
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post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post

 

iMessage just needs to be turned off before you migrate to another phone, or you get this behavior. Something to remember before you sell your iPhone.

Maybe this is true, but I don't know.... My dad switched from an iPhone to Android and my messages switched seemlessly to SMS with him.  I doubt he turned iMessage off because he isn't that into stuff like that.  He got the 3G for free a couple of years ago and when his contract was up got the Galaxy S2 for free.  Didn't care about either phone just wanted something free.  So I don't think he would be the type to think of going in and switching iMessage off.

post #35 of 39
This is for all the people who think that the big investors hold on to AAP

Who%u2019s behind Apple%u2019s (AAPL) months-long selloff? Hedge funds get plenty of pointed fingers. How about starting with boring old mutual funds %u2014 like those run by American Funds, among the staidest of them all?

The $113 billion Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) %u2013 the third-largest in the mutual fund industry, according to Morningstar %u2013 dumped something like $3 billion worth of the stock during the fourth quarter, according to portfolio disclosures. Apple had been this fund%u2019s top-weighted stock, at 4.2%.

But Growth Fund%u2019s position of more than seven million shares, worth $4.8 billion as of Aug. 31, fell to less than 1% at the end of the year, when its 1.9 million shares were worth a little over a billion dollars. The selling happened at some point between Apple%u2019s fourth-quarter price swing as high as the low $700s and as low as $505. The fund%u2019s annual report, dated Oct. 8, touted Apple%u2019s 72.9% total return as one of 20 top holdings to produce %u201Cvery satisfying results.%u201D The top-weighted stock is now Amazon.com (AMZN), at roughly 3.8%.

AFP/Getty Images

An American Funds spokesman didn%u2019t immediately comment.

The story is similar at the $52 billion Fundamental Investors A (ANCFX), whose third-largest stock position as of June 30 was a 1.9 million- share stake in Apple worth approximately $1.1 billion dollars, about 2.3% of the portfolio. This stake fell to about 934,000 shares worth nearly half a billion dollars at year end, or about 1% of the portfolio.

Amcap Fund (AMCPX), another growth fund, this one with $25 billion under management, reduced its stake to 360,000 shares last quarter, or 0.75% of assets as of Dec. 31, from more than twice that, a position worth north of half a billion dollars, or more than 2% of the portfolio, as of Aug. 31.

The $7.9 billion New Economy Fund (ANEFX), where you%u2019d presumably expect a strong opinion on the subject, also dropped Apple, and it picked up Facebook (FB). This fund held a 0.26% sliver of the portfolio in Apple as of Dec. 31 and a 0.84% Facebook weighting. That%u2019s versus a 4% Apple weighting at May 31
post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


They'll make it up in volume 1cool.gif

But seriously... that's one concern I've had about Amazon ever since the original Kindle Fire.

They're not making much money (if any) on the Kindle Fire hardware. So they are counting on people buying music, movies, apps and games to offset that.

Are they?

Then again... Amazon sells a ton of ebooks... which are tiny files which cost almost nothing to transmit. And Amazon earns $3 from every $10 ebook they sell.

Maybe Kindle ebooks are the big thing... and all the apps and games are just filler.

This...

 

Everyone I know who has a Kindle or Kindle Fire uses it primarily for eBooks, then media (movies, music), and games are indeed just filler.  Even web browsing is secondary.  

 

And indeed they don't make money on hardware.  Nor do they care to.  In fact, I don't think they even care if someone buys a Kindle as opposed to an iPad, as long as they're buying stuff from Amazon.  

post #37 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Not what I want to hear but what I've repeatedly said on here. It's not a far stretch of the imagination that anyone that's invested in a platform long enough will not leave it regardless of what the competition may bring.

 

When you find something better, it's not that hard to move on.

 

A lot of us had a TON of money invested in our WinMo phones.  Remember, apps were usually $10 to $20 each and up.  

 

As for the stickiness factor, there seem to be more people than ever moving between phone and OS brands.   Reminds me a bit of how the same thing is happening with people moving between religions.   Everyone's looking for the perfect fit, that makes them happy.

post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

When you find something better, it's not that hard to move on.

A lot of us had a TON of money invested in our WinMo phones.  Remember, apps were usually $10 to $20 each and up.  

As for the stickiness factor, there seem to be more people than ever moving between phone and OS brands.   Reminds me a bit of how the same thing is happening with people moving between religions.   Everyone's looking for the perfect fit, that makes them happy.

That might be fine if it was just a phone, but now it's a tablet, a laptop, a desktop, and Apple TV. Many people own all of these or a combination.
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post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Last I checked MS still has a pretty sizable marketshare. MS is in decline more due to their own missteps than anything else. The big switch from MS to Apple started innocently with the iPod and only sped up with the iPhone/iPad.

At some point recently even Google's market cap wooshed past Microsoft, and now sits over $255B. Things sure change fast don't they?

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