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iMac ship times slip again in Europe on supply issues but U.S. retailers shipping all models

post #1 of 56
Thread Starter 
Estimated shipping times for Apple's thinner iMac continue to slip, as the 27-inch model is now advertised to arrive in Europe in 4 to 6 weeks, while the 21.5-inch model has been delayed to between 3 and 4 weeks.

iMac


The delays apply to both iMac models, as the 21.5-inch variety was previously advertised to ship in 2 to 3 weeks, while the 27-inch model was available in 3 to 4 weeks. News of the delays surfacing in France were first reported on Monday by MacGeneration.

The delays do not yet affect Apple's U.S. online store, though if recent trends are any indication, the new estimated shipping times will be reflected in the company's American store in due time.

Shipping times for the smaller 21.5-inch model also began slipping late last month to between 2 and 3 weeks. The updates to Apple's European online stores on Monday suggest that the company continues to see production problems with its redesigned iMac.

Those problems have persisted since the new iMacs first went on sale in December. In the holiday quarter, Apple's Mac sales dropped 17 percent, a decrease the company attributed to severe constraints on the new, thinner iMacs.

Continued setbacks for the iMac also cast into doubt a recent rumor that claimed Apple's suppliers had solved their production problems. However, some 21.5- and 27-inch iMac units did begin trickling into Apple's reseller channels last week.

That trend has continued in the U.S., as reseller MacConnection reflects availability of all 4 standard retail configurations as of Monday with an instant $20 discount per model. A handful of other custom configurations are also popping in and out of stock at other retailers, as can be seen below in our price guide snippet:
post #2 of 56

Hmmm, this entire refresh has been badly botched which is such a shame, It's a beautiful machine. Hopefully they will refresh it sometime this year with a retina display so that I can upgrade my 2010 27" iMac.

 

Of course, if they screw up the refresh dates again a refresh might not be due until mid/end 2014.

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post #3 of 56
They should have released a spec bump with Ivy Bridge in June last year, then release the slim version with Haswell. Apple has recently lost the "available today" magic of the Steve Jobs era.
post #4 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Hmmm, this entire refresh has been badly botched which is such a shame, It's a beautiful machine. Hopefully they will refresh it sometime this year with a retina display so that I can upgrade my 2010 27" iMac.

Of course, if they screw up the refresh dates again a refresh might not be due until mid/end 2014.

Agreed. Apple really needs to do a better job of aligning its product announcements with ability to execute on delivery.
post #5 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Agreed. Apple really needs to do a better job of aligning its product announcements with ability to execute on delivery.

If only the guy in charge was a supply-chain wizard huh?

post #6 of 56
Two questions
1. Is the same true of Apple's brick and mortar stores is just online
2. Is the issue really supply quality or high demand that is exceeding supply such that Apple wants to under promise so they don't get folks griping because they can't deliver when they said.

These units are by their admission hand calibrated etc so that means they will take a little longer to put together. Was this perhaps the 'production issue' that the analysts were talking about and not some quality control in a part like they wanted it to sound.

Seems to me that the fact that folks are ordering the iMacs is the key item. If they were such crap no one would be buying them and the online stores etc wouldn't have wait times getting longer and longer.

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post #7 of 56

They will bump the spec when Haswell released from Intel around June 2013.

 

Apple needed remodel iMac frame because they had problem with dust sticking issue with screen(27").

They don't want to easy solution like add some tape around the screen, instead they release new frame.

So they don't have to recall all iMac they had problem with.

post #8 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post
. Apple has recently lost the "available today" magic of the Steve Jobs era.

 

That magic has been gone for a long time. Unless you are willing to wait in line for a week to be sure you get it during the first hour after launch.

 

Apple stuff is just that wanted, which is not a bad thing.

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post #9 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Agreed. Apple really needs to do a better job of aligning its product announcements with ability to execute on delivery.

 

Warehousing a ton of product is a risk. Security of the details, security of the actual product, risk of over producing a model folks don't want as much as they guessed etc. that's not Apple's style and never has been.

 

these delays are due to folks buying the product as much as it simply taking longer to produce due to higher quality production techniques. This is not a bad thing. This is not HP producing 5000k units and then losing access to the factories for 6 months before they could make more and taking 10k in 'pre orders', half of which they knew they couldn't deliver any time soon. 

 

If you think you know how they should do things then by all means go to Cupertino and demand that Tim Cook do things your way because you are so much smarter than he is, than even Steve was. Show him your multibillion dollar, international tech company that is never behind in using the latest and greatest tech, never has supply issues or quality concerns and makes everyone equally happy all the time by giving them exactly what they want, when they want etc. 

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post #10 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

If only the guy in charge was a supply-chain wizard huh?

Perhaps you do know that his title now is CEO, not COO. The former tend to have more on their plate than just the supply chain.
post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Two questions
1. Is the same true of Apple's brick and mortar stores is just online
2. Is the issue really supply quality or high demand that is exceeding supply such that Apple wants to under promise so they don't get folks griping because they can't deliver when they said.

These units are by their admission hand calibrated etc so that means they will take a little longer to put together. Was this perhaps the 'production issue' that the analysts were talking about and not some quality control in a part like they wanted it to sound.

Seems to me that the fact that folks are ordering the iMacs is the key item. If they were such crap no one would be buying them and the online stores etc wouldn't have wait times getting longer and longer.

1) No, you can find product at B&M stores. Perhaps not the build you want but they do get some supply as you'd expect a B&M store to have.

2) Pedantically speaking demand is exceeding supply but the question is how the high is the supply. This great new design could have spurred a lot of extra buyers whom were waiting for the refresh or remodel, but I think it's safe to say that supply is woefully below Apple's standards.

3) Apple is under promised me by only a couple days. Well, they said Feb 8th to 15th and I'm getting it no later than Feb 6th.

4) They do factory calibrate the displays which will take some extra time but unless we're talking about an excessive number of extra units (which we're not according to the last quarter results) that isn't what is causing the delay. There are two known processes that are distinct to the new iMac: friction-stir welding and full display to glass lamination.

5) I see people are still on about Apple should have kept the same old design and waited a cycle before making anything but a CPU cycle. I think that's shortsighted. The iMac isn't a huge seller compared to the notebooks so how many users are there really that just have to have a new desktop right away will be put out and disgruntled? Not many; at least not many who are reasonable.

I think the real question is: What does starting this process in 2012 as opposed to 2013 or 2014 afford Apple? They get a jump on a complex production design that sells a relatively minor number of units compared to their products and get to work out kinks in the system that might be beneficial to potentially moving friction-stir welding, full display to glass lamination, or other techniques to other products faster than they could have otherwise had they put on blinders and kept the iMac design the way it was.

We need to remember that Apple completely stopped production of the previous iMacs and that Apple has a long history of taking skills mastered in one area and then incorporating them into another. It would be foolish to think Apple has no bigger plan here. I, for one, am quite happy to have waited for my new iMac instead of getting an old one.

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post #12 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Warehousing a ton of product is a risk. Security of the details, security of the actual product, risk of over producing a model folks don't want as much as they guessed etc. that's not Apple's style and never has been.

these delays are due to folks buying the product as much as it simply taking longer to produce due to higher quality production techniques. This is not a bad thing. This is not HP producing 5000k units and then losing access to the factories for 6 months before they could make more and taking 10k in 'pre orders', half of which they knew they couldn't deliver any time soon. 

If you think you know how they should do things then by all means go to Cupertino and demand that Tim Cook do things your way because you are so much smarter than he is, than even Steve was. Show him your multibillion dollar, international tech company that is never behind in using the latest and greatest tech, never has supply issues or quality concerns and makes everyone equally happy all the time by giving them exactly what they want, when they want etc. 

These are all pretty weak arguments you're making. The most cliche-d one being (paraphrasing) 'you think you know better than Apple?' Using that logic, many of the posts here -- including some of yours -- should be thrown out.

It's like saying, 'you didn't lay the egg, so you can't criticize an omelette'. Silly, in other words.

Incidentally, it was Apple's CFO Oppenheimer who said there were 700,000 'missing iMacs' in the last quarter.
post #13 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino 
Apple has recently lost the "available today" magic of the Steve Jobs era.

"Real artists ship". I remember the original iPhone being announced in January and shipped in June. There was that whole GHz thing too.

At this stage, they should be able to handle it better, especially with this volume of shipments. The Retina MBP shipping times were also high for a while:

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/06/13/retina-macbook-pro-shipping-estimates-slip-to-3-4-weeks-as-initial-shipments-begin/

It must be the displays as that's common to both the iMac and MBP. It could be that they check the display after they glue it in too so if there's a problem they might have a long recycle process.

It took until the end of August to clear the backlog with the rMBP. If it's the same deal with the iMac, it won't be resolved until the end of this month but the iMac might be worse with the larger display.

Once they get it fixed, it shouldn't be a problem going forward because there's not much else needing to be improved with the iMac design. They can keep reducing the depth of the machine.
post #14 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

I remember the original iPhone being announced in January and shipped in June. There was that whole GHz thing too.

1) The original iPhone is a different beast. They did have to submit to the FCC but there was no need for a 6 month wait and the FCC will keep it secret until such time as Apple wishes or until the items goes on sale. We've seen the FCC info appear right after Apple's announcement many, many times. The real reason for the 6 month lead time appears to be for the US due to the subsidization model that holds users in contracts for 2 years. The 6 month lead time was allow up to 25% to not renew their subscriptions right before the iPhone launched.

2) If by GHz you mean the PPC promises during Steve Jobs era that is a great example of a more egregious issue than today's iMac hiccup. At least the new iMac is shipping.
Quote:
At this stage, they should be able to handle it better, especially with this volume of shipments. […] It must be the displays as that's common to both the iMac and MBP. It could be that they check the display after they glue it in too so if there's a problem they might have a long recycle process.

1) We don't have enough info to know the fault resides.

2) Are the displays laminated the same way? Does nearly 4x the area affect the curing process or QA check?

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post #15 of 56

So much for the myth that Tim Cook is a supply chain maven... Has Apple done anything right the last 2 quarters? Everything from its ill advised product dump forward has been a massive FAIL! If CEO Cook can't prove his bone fides in the next 2 quarters he should be dumped as unceremoniously as the iPad Mini, iPad 4, and iMac were all unceremoniously dumped on each other last September. 

post #16 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

So much for the myth that Tim Cook is a supply chain maven... Has Apple done anything right the last 2 quarters? Everything from its ill advised product dump forward has been a massive FAIL! If CEO Cook can't prove his bone fides in the next 2 quarters he should be dumped as unceremoniously as the iPad Mini, iPad 4, and iMac were all unceremoniously dumped on each other last September. 

1) You're confusing expert with infallible.

2) You have no idea if there is a supply chain issue with the iMac.

3) So nothing in the past two quarters was done right? Sent from my iPhone 5.

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post #17 of 56
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post
So much for the myth that Tim Cook is a supply chain maven... Has Apple done anything right the last 2 quarters? Everything from its ill advised product dump forward has been a massive FAIL! If CEO Cook can't prove his bone fides in the next 2 quarters he should be dumped as unceremoniously as the iPad Mini, iPad 4, and iMac were all unceremoniously dumped on each other last September. 

 

Yep, you sure know what Tim Cook can and can't do, given that he has been running Apple on and off since 2004.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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post #18 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

So much for the myth that Tim Cook is a supply chain maven... Has Apple done anything right the last 2 quarters? Everything from its ill advised product dump forward has been a massive FAIL! If CEO Cook can't prove his bone fides in the next 2 quarters he should be dumped as unceremoniously as the iPad Mini, iPad 4, and iMac were all unceremoniously dumped on each other last September. 

Right. Apple never had a failure under Jobs' leadership. I guess I must have missed the 3 GHz PPC chips since you seem to believe that they actually shipped.

As for the rest, you don't have any idea what you're talking about. Apple's sales were at record levels last quarter. Profits were also a record. Apple introduced more successful new products in 2012 than perhaps at any time in its history. Not to mention, of course, that Cook was a major part of Apple's previous supply chain success.

Apparently, you don't have any concept of what it takes to design, build, and ship millions of products with completely novel designs. Apple has done that repeatedly over the past decade - and continues to do so.

Was the iMac introduction a problem? Sure - but I don't think anyone can attribute it to an issue that Apple could have addressed. For all we know, their supplier promised 20 M screens and just failed to produce. The only major error I see in the iMac introduction is not a supply chain issue at all - it is the decision to stop producing the old ones before the new ones were ready.

"Apple hasn't done anything right the last 2 quarters" is just pure nonsense. The Mini is off to a great start. the iPhone 5 is the best selling mobile phone in history. Record sales. Record profits. Retina MacBook Pro is probably the best laptop on the market - by a significant margin.

Just what do you expect? You want them to revolutionize their markets on a weekly basis?
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post #19 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

The only major error I see in the iMac introduction is not a supply chain issue at all - it is the decision to stop producing the old ones before the new ones were ready.

The fact that they did that should tell us there is something unusual afoot. This isn't Tim Cook's first rodeo so why did they change the iMac before Xmas knowing they wouldn't be able to move many units when they could have sold the previous model through Xmas and then done a refresh in January, perhaps even released during CES which would have taken away a lot of focus from that event? The only reasonable answer is they had to stop the current iMac production and the most likely answer is they needed to stop it in order to begin the new models so even if they waited through the Holidays all they would have done is pushed back the new iMac manufacturing a quarter.

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post #20 of 56

Bloomberg had video up last week with some analyst saying Tim Cook needs to put Jony Ive on a leash and reign him in when his designs get to crazy.  I don't doubt that Ive has a lot of power at Apple but if his team comes up with a design that engineering and operations says will be too difficult to mass produce do we really think he has the power to say 'I don't care figure out a way to do it' and Tim Cook doesn't step in or basically says what ever Jony says goes?  I don't buy it.

post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

They should have released a spec bump with Ivy Bridge in June last year, then release the slim version with Haswell. Apple has recently lost the "available today" magic of the Steve Jobs era.

This was what I expected. I figured they would try a larger form factor each year. iPhone --> iPad ---> Macbooks ---> iMacs. This would have allowed more testing time and refinement of the process. They're such a huge company that yields would be a major issue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


2) Are the displays laminated the same way? Does nearly 4x the area affect the curing process or QA check?

Whenever I find white papers on displays, they sound like a complicated issue. NEC published one a number of years ago on the use of LED and its inherent problems. This was around the time they released a 21" RGB-LED backlit display for $6000. The tri-colored LED lights gave it a wider gamut, and they shipped a custom colorimeter with it. I can't find the white papers anymore, but they mentioned the issues with LED stability and how trying to stabilize them resulted in higher energy consumption which created more color stability problems due to heat. Displays are a complicated issue. People have mentioned "yellow screen" issues on some of the new ones, which aren't always uniform. I'm curious if some of these would go away once the lamination completely sets.

post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post

People have mentioned "yellow screen" issues on some of the new ones, which aren't always uniform. I'm curious if some of these would go away once the lamination completely sets.

Based on year's past reports of iPhone and iPad displays being shipped from China with yellow displays I'm guessing it will dissipate. Perhaps such a large display will make it easier to notice but I'm personally not worried.

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post #23 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Hmmm, this entire refresh has been badly botched which is such a shame, It's a beautiful machine.

You are being way too kind here. Somebody at Apple needs a whack up side the head over this issue.
Hopefully they will refresh it sometime this year with a retina display so that I can upgrade my 2010 27" iMac.
I'm not sure retina would help the shipping issue. I do wonder what the hold up is this time though. There seems to be an assumption it is the displays but of course we don't know for sure.
 

Of course, if they screw up the refresh dates again a refresh might not be due until mid/end 2014.

 

At which point Apple would have lost all respect as far as a desktop computer manufacture goes. Maybe that is what they want, what ever the problem it really doesn't look good for Apple. A positive way to look at this would be that it is a sign of sales well above projections. I just doubt that is the real issue though.
post #24 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


If you think you know how they should do things then by all means go to Cupertino and demand that Tim Cook do things your way because you are so much smarter than he is, than even Steve was.

You know how I know you're wrong? This sentence above. Desperate and pathetic straw man argument.

Just because he's smart doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes that others may not have made. It also doesn't mean that he should be a CEO instead if being a COO. Lots of great offensive coordinators fail miserably at head coach. Doesn't make them a bad coach.

(Siri dictation mistake)
Edited by cameronj - 2/4/13 at 8:51am
post #25 of 56
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
You know how I know you're wrong? Your sentence about how you. Desperate and pathetic.

 

I want to delete this, but it's not an insult yet; there's no grammar.

 

EDIT: Oh, never mind, then.


Edited by Tallest Skil - 2/4/13 at 8:33am

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #26 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Bloomberg had video up last week with some analyst saying Tim Cook needs to put Jony Ive on a leash and reign him in when his designs get to crazy.  I don't doubt that Ive has a lot of power at Apple but if his team comes up with a design that engineering and operations says will be too difficult to mass produce do we really think he has the power to say 'I don't care figure out a way to do it' and Tim Cook doesn't step in or basically says what ever Jony says goes?  I don't buy it.

There's no doubt in my mind this is correct. It's Cook's job to make sure that all the parts of the company are working together to create products apple can sell. Ives job is to be optimistic, Cook's job is to be realistic. Cook is the one failing here.
post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


There's no doubt in my mind this is correct. It's Cook's job to make sure that all the parts of the company are working together to create products apple can sell. Ives job is to be optimistic, Cook's job is to be realistic. Cook is the one failing here.

But none of us know exactly what's causing the delays.  Certainly not some Wall Street analyst. Without more information can we really say because of designs that are too ambitious?  How do we know its not a QC issue with a display supplier?

post #28 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan 
Bloomberg had video up last week with some analyst saying Tim Cook needs to put Jony Ive on a leash and reign him in when his designs get to crazy.  I don't doubt that Ive has a lot of power at Apple but if his team comes up with a design that engineering and operations says will be too difficult to mass produce do we really think he has the power to say 'I don't care figure out a way to do it' and Tim Cook doesn't step in or basically says what ever Jony says goes?  I don't buy it.

Steve said Ive had more power than anyone at the company but the CEO has the highest rank so I'm guessing Steve meant more than than anyone except the CEO. It's kinda obvious why Forstall would never be CEO in that light as that would put him above Ive. This is also not likely to be just Ive's decision - like he sits in a room and one day decides to make something impossibly thin and demands that it happens. These are fantasy scenarios based on the small information that leaks out about the company and the staff.

They probably managed to make the prototypes no problems and ran into yield issues with the process in production. The iMacs have improvements that needed to be made because you can see the glare reduction and it seems to run cooler:

"One other nice feature -- this iMac runs much cooler than the older model. The old unit would get quite hot; a quick reading today showed that it was at 103° F while in display sleep mode doing nothing, while the new unit was a cool 83.4° F."

http://www.tuaw.com/2012/12/14/fast-quiet-and-skinny-a-quick-look-at-the-new-27-imac-late/

Contrary to some belief that the slimmer design would make it worse. Once the demand tails off, they'll manage to get the inventory up. It might be an idea for them to build up a more significant supply before announcing the product in future but as we know that risks the product leaks.
post #29 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

You know how I know you're wrong? This sentence above. Desperate and pathetic straw man argument.

Just because he's smart doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes that others may not have made. It also doesn't mean that he should be a CEO instead if being a COO. Lots of great offensive coordinators fail miserably at head coach. Doesn't make them a bad coach.

(Siri dictation mistake)

Just because Cook is not infallible does it mean these iMac supply issues are a result of him messing up the supply chain.

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post #30 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

But none of us know exactly what's causing the delays.  Certainly not some Wall Street analyst. Without more information can we really say because of designs that are too ambitious?  How do we know its not a QC issue with a display supplier?

Also the ceo's job to prevent. If you put all your production eggs into one basket, you pay the price when your designs are too far ahead of their time. CEO bears the blame. Try again.
post #31 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Just because Cook is not infallible does it mean these iMac supply issues are a result of him messing up the supply chain.

No, but it's his fault for not making SURE that any production issues were ironed out before the critical holiday season.

And the stock is down 40% because he failed at that. Period.
post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

No, but it's his fault for not making SURE that any production issues were ironed out before the critical holiday season.

And the stock is down 40% because he failed at that. Period.

Really?

1. Apple stock is not down 40% since the Holiday season. How is this failure during the Holiday season responsible for the massive share price decline that had occurred previously?

2. What's your evidence that the share price decline was due to the iMac shipment delays? Every report I've seen says that the concerns about slowing FUTURE growth, particularly for the iPhone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

There's no doubt in my mind this is correct.

A closed mind gathers no knowledge.

You might want to search for facts so that you can learn something rather than closing your mind after letting your preconceived notions take over. See above.
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post #33 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

No, but it's his fault for not making SURE that any production issues were ironed out before the critical holiday season.

So you think it's better if they kept the old iMacs unchanged through the holidays and then switched it up this quarter putting back plans for large display lamination, friction-stir welding, and whatever other innovations back another 3 months? Do you have any idea what adding a 3 month delay would do to Apple if these techniques that are being mastered for a monumental product release this year if you think that Apple is doomed because a relatively unpopular product the world doesn't care about wasn't able to get a jump on the process last year?
Quote:
And the stock is down 40% because he failed at that. Period.

No it's not.

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post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

A closed mind gathers no knowledge.

You might want to search for facts so that you can learn something rather than closing your mind after letting your preconceived notions take over. See above.

What makes you think you're open minded and I'm not? You just disagree with me. Frankly it's hard to justify the 'stay the course' argument is more open minded than the one I'm suggesting. But if you want to believe that when two people disagree you can claim that the other is closed minded because he won't agree with you, meanwhile you won't agree with him....

You guys are just refuseniks. That's ok. Time will tell who is right. I hope I'm wrong because my wallet will benefit if I am, but I think I'm right.

Now stop being so closed minded in your refusal to agree with me.
post #35 of 56
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
And the stock is down 40% because he failed at that. Period.

 

lol.


Originally Posted by cameronj View Post
…refusal to agree with me.
 

Start having evidence and maybe we'll have a reason to.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

What makes you think you're open minded and I'm not? You just disagree with me. Frankly it's hard to justify the 'stay the course' argument is more open minded than the one I'm suggesting. But if you want to believe that when two people disagree you can claim that the other is closed minded because he won't agree with you, meanwhile you won't agree with him....

You guys are just refuseniks. That's ok. Time will tell who is right. I hope I'm wrong because my wallet will benefit if I am, but I think I'm right.

Now stop being so closed minded in your refusal to agree with me.

There's the problem. You think being opened minded is about eventually being proved right. You can create a hypothesis based on known data but if you exclude possibilities simply because they don't fit in with your desired model you are not being open minded.

For instance, you stating Apple's stock is down 40% because of iMac delays in initial holiday shipping and demand far exceeding their shipments is a prime example of you being closed minded as you've removed any and all other possibility for the drop in Apple's stock over the past 18 weeks.
Edited by SolipsismX - 2/4/13 at 10:14am

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #37 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


No, but it's his fault for not making SURE that any production issues were ironed out before the critical holiday season.

And the stock is down 40% because he failed at that. Period.

The stock is obviously heavily manipulated.  But another reason it's down is Samsung's rise has the investor community spooked.  It's as if they think of things as zero sum game and if Samsung wins that means Apple must be losing.

post #38 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

There's no doubt in my mind this is correct. It's Cook's job to make sure that all the parts of the company are working together to create products apple can sell. Ives job is to be optimistic, Cook's job is to be realistic. Cook is the one failing here.

I'd say you are the one that is failing.

Armchair second-guessing is not very convincing when you are talking in generalities like making "sure that all the parts of the company are working together to create products that apple can sell."

With your known ability to be specific over investment questions, I would think you'd want to be more specific on your critique of Cook's control over the production of the new iMacs in three precise areas:

1) the lamination of large display-to-glass screens. Are you sure that their trial production runs revealed all the possible problems among all the suppliers–you know who they are and who supplies their machines, don't you?

2) the plasma coating of large glass surfaces with niobium pentoxide and silicon dioxide. You know of course all about how easy it is to browbeat your suppliers–you know who they are–into coming through on a process they've never done before? Not enough throughput? Just procure more machines, right? So what if they have never been made in this size and quantities before.

3) the friction-stir welding hasn't been talked about as a bottleneck, but of course you are sure that it isn't one because you've checked with all the suppliers and found that things are just humming right along.

In other words, please stop talking down Tim Cook unless you know something. You are FUD mongering here, as you did in an earlier thread where you said you doubted he would be around much longer.
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

What makes you think you're open minded and I'm not? You just disagree with me.

Wrong. I stated that you're close minded because you jumped to a conclusion that is entirely unsupported by facts and then pronounced that it was the only possible conclusion - without being willing to even consider others.

That's essentially the definition of close minded.

Even close minded people are right some times (although we have no evidence that you're right. In fact, your claim that the stock fell 40% due to the iMac problem is clearly incorrect since most of the fall occurred before the iMac was even announced). But even if you WERE right, it doesn't change the fact that you're close minded.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

There's the problem. You think being opened minded is about eventually being proved right. You can create a hypothesis based on known on data but if you exclude possibilities simply because they don't fit in with your desired model you are not being open minded.

For instance, you stating Apple's stock is down 40% because of iMac delays in initial holiday shipping and demand far exceeding their shipments is a prime example of you being closed minded as you've removed any and all other possibility for the drop in Apple's stock over the past 18 weeks.

That's ridiculous. First, stop trying to say what I think. Just stating what you think is sufficient for participating in a debate.

Second. I don't think that the inability to produce iMacs in the last quarter of the year is the only reason for the decline. Stop putting words in my mouth. But I do think that almost all of the reasons for the decline fall eventually on the CEOs desk and cook has done badly at managing them.

Just because you happen to be a pro Apple poster on pro Apple messageboard, you get the feeling that you're right because the majority of people agree with. It's like going into a 49ers bar and listing the 15 reasons that they lost last night which weren't their own fault. You feel great, because lots of people will agree, but that doesn't mean you're right or that your argument is strong.

Oh well, I'm not dumb enough to continue banging my head against the wall with people who clearly have dug into their position unwilling to consider another option. This is not worth my time.
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