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Rumor: Apple's 4.8-inch iPhone 6 won't launch till June 2014 due to screen yield issues

post #1 of 60
Thread Starter 
Apple plans to introduce an iPhone with a 4.8-inch display and additional processing cores to help stem market share losses to rivals like Samsung but has been unable to accelerate the launch of the product into the 2013 calendar year due to challenges in producing enough of the larger displays, one investment research firm said Wednesday.

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Mockup of iPhone with 4.94-inch screen, created by Marco Arment.


Editor's Note: It has been brought to our attention that certain specific claims of the Jefferies report are somewhat suspect, specifically regarding a March media event. AppleInsider has reached out to analyst Peter Misek, who maintains a high level of confidence regarding his hardware predictions. As with any research-based report, the information within should be taken with a grain of salt.

In a report issued to clients on Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said Apple's product roadmap had called for a 4.8-inch iPhone to launch sometime during the 2014 calendar year but added that the company recently made an unsuccessful attempt to bump up its launch into the back half of 2013 amid increased competition and lost market share to rival Samsung.

We believe a summer CY14 launch was originally planned, but Apple tried to accelerate it to stem its market share losses. The earliest Apple could have launched a 4.8? phone would have been this fall (with a target of Oct); however, our checks indicate that Apple?s suppliers are running into difficulties trying to scale the screen size from 4? to 4.8?.



More specifically, Misek said scaling the in-cell screens from 4" to 4.8" has resulted in poor yields -- meaning a significant number of display components from each batch being manufactured are not passing the company's quality assurance tests. As such, Apple is unlikely to be able to manufacture enough of the larger 4.8" displays to facilitate a full-blown launch of the handset until next spring.

"We believe Tim Cook defended the 4? screen of the iPhone 5 on the last earnings call in order to avoid freezing iPhone shipments in the quarters before a 4.8? launch," the analyst told his clients.

But poor yields of the larger display components may not be the only bottleneck Apple faces in pushing out the so-called iPhone 6. Misek believes Apple will jump from a 32-nanometer production process to a 20-nanometer process in a bid to add more processing cores (4 to 8), completely forgoing a move to a 28-nanometer process.

"While TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is targeting a 2014 ramp in its 20nm production we think that issues like double patterning could make it a more complicated transition than the 28nm ramp, which had its own substantial ramp and yield issues.



Additionally, Misek said Apple's current difficulty in ramping the in-cell displays at 4.8-inches may be forcing the company to look at switching to on-cell displays (which include a different integrated touchscreen technology), IGZO displays, and even OLED displays. The latter consideration, the analyst noted, would come despite Apple?s suppliers being well behind Samsung in their OLED capabilities.

Misek's notion of using OLED displays would seem to run counter to recent developments. On Tuesday, speaking at Goldman Sachs' Internet and Technology Conference, Apple CEO Tim Cook panned the image quality of OLEDs.

"If you ever buy anything online," Cook explained, "and really want to know what the color is, as many people do, you should think twice before you depend on the color from an OLED display."

On Friday, news emerged that Apple had hired away an OLED expert from South Korean manufacturer LG. Despite Cook's negative take on the current state of OLEDs, the technology does allow for thinner designs and better battery life.

Cook's comments came in the context of a larger defense of the current size of the iPhone's display. At four inches diagonal, the iPhone 5's display is smaller than much of its competition. Cook, though, said some observers' focus on screen size was akin to the spec races of the PC and digital camera industries.

Even as he spoke on screen size, Cook was less adamant in defending the iPhone 5's display size than he has been in the past. Twice in his response he said he "[wasn't] going to talk about what we're going to do in the future," leading some to believe the company may bend to market pressures and release a larger-screened device.
post #2 of 60
But you know how Apple is... it demands top notch quality that is durable.

Unlike its competitors.
post #3 of 60

I'll believe it when i see it.....that would be one large iPhone....

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post #4 of 60
And so it goes......

Someone starts ridiculous rumors, and then they start with excuses why they're really right, but we won't see that product for some time. So if there's no 5" iPhone this summer, it's not because the rumor was silly, but it's due to supplier issues.
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #5 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

 However, our checks indicate that Apple's suppliers are running into difficulties trying to scale the screen size from 4 to 4.8.

 

You're scaling it wrong. Try scaling it the other way, from 9.7 down to 4.8.  Actually, 4.85

 

I'm being sarcastic but actually, the math is correct.

post #6 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by netrox View Post

But you know how Apple is... it demands top notch quality that is durable.

Unlike its competitors.

 

 

top notch quality?  Did you even read the article? There are already quality control issues with larger displays according to Jeffrey's report. 

 

Also, doesn't Samsung control something like 95+% of the AMOLED market?

post #7 of 60
I didn't make the comparison to see if it's possible, but I'd buy it only if it kept the same size as the current iPhone 5. Bigger is too much for me.
post #8 of 60

Dis-information campaign in full swing now ...

post #9 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

You're scaling it wrong. Try scaling it the other way, from 9.7 down to 4.8.  Actually, 4.85

I'm being sarcastic but actually, the math is correct.

I get 4.9404" for the same 263.92 PPI on the iPad, assuming it's exactly 9.7".

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #10 of 60

Too late

post #11 of 60

This analyst has a spotty record. I think the article title is misleading. It makes it seem like a fact when this is simply speculation.

post #12 of 60

There's no need for Apple to hurry, and risk repeating its implementation missteps with the iMac and iPhone 5. Cook should take his time.

 

I am not worried about Apple competing in that segment. Just throw the rumors out there. If anything, I'll bet it'll freeze the market for the fugly S3s.

post #13 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

 

 

top notch quality?  Did you even read the article? There are already quality control issues with larger displays according to Jeffrey's report. 

 

Also, doesn't Samsung control something like 95+% of the AMOLED market?

 

All of that is completely irrelevant, especially the reference to AMOLED displays.

 

But, yes, as others have mentioned, this is just a "crap, we blew our guess" report. They realized it's definitely not happening, so now they are projecting it further out, and blaming it on Apple, to avoid looking like the complete idiots they are, for now.

post #14 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... and even OLED displays. The latter consideration, the analyst noted, would come despite Apple?s suppliers being well behind Samsung in their OLED capabilities.

 

Did this guy even listen to Cook yesterday, OLED displays aren't happening any time in the near future.

post #15 of 60

The iPhone 6 wont release in 2013 because there is an iPhone 5S to release this year.
Just saying. Analyst troll.

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post #16 of 60

Hey, guys! How's that iPhone mini treating us all?

 

Oh. RIGHT.


Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post
Too late

 

Too early. But so is every year.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #17 of 60

This rumor has to be crap. Sharp and LG are already making 440ppi LCD3 screens at 5in, Sony's making 343ppi at 4.3in, others are doing things in-between...I hardly suspect there's 'yield' problems. 

I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #18 of 60

Vaporware product running into yield issues...   I will assume Apple is testing multiple screen sizes and screen tech, if one screen has problem maybe they can try another or, god forbid they solve the problem and improve the yield. If Wong ton soup inc. can make 5" phones, why cant Apple?

 

I hope Apple will not use OLED, that would mean IGZO has some sort of major problem keeping it from being used. IGZO is a lot more "retina" friendly.

post #19 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I get 4.9404" for the same 263.92 PPI on the iPad, assuming it's exactly 9.7".

U think apple sould leak a rumor that a larger phone will be out this year... If in fact it was? Or misslead to surprise and maintain sales till it is announced?
post #20 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacerays View Post

The iPhone 6 wont release in 2013 because there is an iPhone 5S to release this year.
Just saying. Analyst troll.

 

Apple need to do a lot more than just doing a 5s in OCT.  I mean for the stock, because as a company Apple will still be here even if they shrink and lose market shares by the truck load.  My 4s contract expires in OCT, would love to stay with Apple but aint gonna happen if the only model they have is the 5s.

post #21 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Did this guy even listen to Cook yesterday, OLED displays aren't happening any time in the near future.
I dont agree.. Apple is not substituting i5... It is expanding the line to offer more selection and compete in the larger screen area. I think that has to happen this year.
And i think this report is misinformation. ...
post #22 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Hey, guys! How's that iPhone mini treating us all?

Oh. RIGHT.

Too early. But so is every year.

You were saying the same thing about the ipad mini for years. Face it, Tim Cook's Apple is not SJ's Apple. We're gonna see new things SJ likely would not have done.

More options is not a bad thing. Apple has always had multiple options on the Mac side. Makes sense the iOS side will catch up.
post #23 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by netrox View Post

But you know how Apple is... it demands top notch quality that is durable.

Unlike its competitors.

 

 

top notch quality?  Did you even read the article? There are already quality control issues with larger displays according to Jeffrey's report. 

 

Also, doesn't Samsung control something like 95+% of the AMOLED market?

Holy crap! did YOU read the article? Or are you reading comprehension deficient?

post #24 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


U think apple sould leak a rumor that a larger phone will be out this year... If in fact it was? Or misslead to surprise and maintain sales till it is announced?

 

Its in Apple best interest to pump the iphone 5 and denied any rumors of course.  

post #25 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

U think apple sould leak a rumor that a larger phone will be out this year... If in fact it was? Or misslead to surprise and maintain sales till it is announced?

I doubt they would. There are some potential advantages with misinformation but I rarely see any presented that sound reasonable.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #26 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Hey, guys! How's that iPhone mini treating us all?

 

Oh. RIGHT.

 

Too early. But so is every year.

 

I was under the impression the 4 and 4s were iphone mini's.  Hell even the ip5 is an iphone mini to me. Little phone, very high price. 

post #27 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post


I think it will largely come down to the design. Going from a4.0 to a 4.8 screen sounds like a huge jump on paper, but feels a lot smaller in person:

iPhone-5-vs-Galaxy-S3-angle-left-side-by-side.jpg

Nice....i actually had the S3 for a while...returned it for an iPhone 5. I loved the size of the S3 but not that it didn't run IOS......But i still stick to my observation...I'll believe it when i see it! :-)

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"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #28 of 60
Originally Posted by Captain J View Post
Face it, Tim Cook's Apple is not SJ's Apple. We're gonna see new things SJ likely would not have done.


So an iPhone mini, then. lol.gif

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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post #29 of 60

"In a report issued to clients on Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek..." Speculative fiction writer Peter Misik? That's all I need to read, thanks. I'm done with this fantasy football piece.

post #30 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

This rumor has to be crap. Sharp and LG are already making 440ppi LCD3 screens at 5in, Sony's making 343ppi at 4.3in, others are doing things in-between...I hardly suspect there's 'yield' problems. 

Well... Sony will sell a total of 10 phones, htc 50... you know how it is. With apple, it's a little different. (5*10^7)

post #31 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple plans to introduce an iPhone with a 4.8-inch display and additional processing cores to help stem market share losses to rivals...

In a report issued to clients on Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said Apple's product roadmap had called for a 4.8-inch iPhone to launch sometime during the 2014 calendar year but added that the company recently made an unsuccessful attempt to bump up its launch into the back half of 2013 amid increased competition and lost market share to rival Samsung.

Hey Misek, Apple doesn't play the Market Share gain. It still has the lion's share of the mobile profits and has the num 1 selling phone. That being said, if there is money to be made in a mass-market segment, Apple will be there.
post #32 of 60

Didn't Tim Cook just diss OLED yesterday? Now we're to believe the next iPhone will have an OLED display?  Really?

post #33 of 60
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Didn't Tim Cook just diss OLED yesterday? Now we're to believe the next iPhone will have an OLED display?  Really?

 

I honestly think that since Apple has ignored OLED for this long, they'll never use it for any reason. 


They'll leapfrog it and use a QD display.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #34 of 60

Size does matter?

An Apple man since 1977
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An Apple man since 1977
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post #35 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


I dont agree.. Apple is not substituting i5... It is expanding the line to offer more selection and compete in the larger screen area. I think that has to happen this year.
And i think this report is misinformation. ...

 

And I think you have no idea what you are talking about, or even responding to.

post #36 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Didn't Tim Cook just diss OLED yesterday? Now we're to believe the next iPhone will have an OLED display?  Really?

 

Exactly. I guess he was too busy writing his analysis to do any fact checking.

post #37 of 60
The article states this as if he had insider info on their product roadmap. Seriously?

That one piece of paper is likely in a safe, with zillions of guards and only 1 key, with retina scanners and a holy knight standing by incase the checks fail to chop off the offenders head!

Wow, way to twist an article Appleinsider.
post #38 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider 
Apple plans to introduce an iPhone with a 4.8-inch display and additional processing cores to help stem market share losses to rivals like Samsung but has been unable to accelerate the launch of the product into the 2013 calendar year due to challenges in producing enough of the larger displays, one investment research firm said Wednesday.

In a report issued to clients on Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said Apple's product roadmap had called for a 4.8-inch iPhone to launch sometime during the 2014 calendar year but added that the company recently made an unsuccessful attempt to bump up its launch into the back half of 2013 amid increased competition and lost market share to rival Samsung.

What marketshare losses would these be? They sold more phones this year than last year and it looks as though the iPhone 5 outsold the Galaxy S3 and Note combined. We know Android overall is growing faster but it's certainly not causing any growth loss to Apple.

If the losses are so dramatic, they can't afford to delay a 4.8" phone until next year (lest they be doomed). I wonder what excuse they'll go with next year when it doesn't show up:

- Apple tests multiple screen sizes so we just report what we see
- Large screen yield still hasn't been sorted out so expect it in 2015
- It was all lies to sway the investment community
post #39 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I get 4.9404" for the same 263.92 PPI on the iPad, assuming it's exactly 9.7".

Damn, you're right. Not my first error today!
post #40 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

What marketshare losses would these be? They sold more phones this year than last year and it looks as though the iPhone 5 outsold the Galaxy S3 and Note combined. We know Android overall is growing faster but it's certainly not causing any growth loss to Apple.

If the losses are so dramatic, they can't afford to delay a 4.8" phone until next year (lest they be doomed). I wonder what excuse they'll go with next year when it doesn't show up:

- Apple tests multiple screen sizes so we just report what we see
- Large screen yield still hasn't been sorted out so expect it in 2015
- It was all lies to sway the investment community

It doesn't matter. The analysts are never held accountable for their predictions. They can be wrong 100 times in a row and the media still hangs on every word.

Next year? They'll do the same thing as they did in this thread - and have been doing for years. Make a prediction, but also give a reason why it might not come true. Then, no matter what happens, you can claim to be right.

Meanwhile, AAPL is down another couple of bucks today.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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