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Piper Jaffray says Apple media event still likely by April, sees 'new iPad body styles'

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Although a recent rumor that Apple was preparing to host a developer-related television event next month was almost instantly shot down, investment research firm Piper Jaffray says a review of years past indicates the company is still likely to host an event by the end of April, which could see the introduction of redesigned iPads.

iPad mini


"We believe that looking at the history of time between Apple product launch events suggests that the company will introduce something new in March or April," analyst Gene Munster told clients on Friday. "Over the past two years, the Spring event has been iPad updates."

Given that Apple just introduced the iPad mini in October but only made minor updates to the full sized iPads at the time, Munster believes the year's first Apple event could produce a major design overall to the full-sized iPad with Retina display with characteristics akin to that of the mini.

We believe Apple could update the full-sized iPad to a body style similar to the iPad Mini. Additionally, we believe that the iPad Mini could get a Retina display, although that may happen later in the year given the supply constraints Apple faced on the Mini in the December quarter.



Munster told clients that he went back and combed over several years of events where Apple launched a significant new hardware product and and paid special attention to the time lapses between those events. Since the June 8th, 2009 launch of the iPhone 3GS, Apple has held 11 major product launch events, he said.

The average time between the events has been 123 days, about 4 months. The longest amount of time between events since the 3GS launch in 2009 was 216 days (about 7 months), which was the gap between the iPad 2 launch in March 2011 and the iPhone 4S launch in October 2011.



Munster noted that the iPhone 4S may have faced some delays that extended the gap between launches. Therefore, given Apple's last event was October 23, 2012, a 4 month difference would suggest a late February event while a 7 month break would imply a late May event.

"We believe the most likely scenario is an event in between the two, i.e. March or April," the analyst wrote.

In addition to the incremental iPad update, Munster also believes Apple could update the Apple TV, primarily with better software and an early take an at App Store, ahead of a formal television launch at a later date.

"We would expect to see an Apple TV update in the next six months if Apple plans to launch a television by the end of the year, which we still expect," he said. "We believe the updated Apple TV software could 'prime the pump' for the ultimate television."

Munster's comments regarding a near-term Apple media event arrive on the heals of similar claims from one of his peers -- Peter Misek over at Jefferies. Misek's claim of an Apple media event in March related to developer tools for a future version of Apple TV was, however, instantly extinguished by Jim Dalrymple.

Dalrymple, as many Apple watchers will attest, has served as an unofficial extension of Apple's public relations department when commenting on matters as such, and therefore his comments are largely believed in-line and representative of Apple's actual intentions.
post #2 of 16
Munster is likely to look dumb when it turns out that the iPads are shifting to a fall release.

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(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #3 of 16
And in a week or so, they'll issue another report saying that while their first report is accurate, that there may be a delay due to component availability, so if it doesn't happen in April as they claimed, it's not their fault.

It's really amazing how much press these analysts get when they're obviously wrong far more than they're right.
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post #4 of 16
Apple just came out with a 128GB iPad 2 weeks ago. No redesign is coming for at least another 6 months.

If anything comes out this spring it'll probably be the rumored watch.
post #5 of 16

Crap! Now I have to wait until April to get my new iPad Mini.

 

I'm a ninny.

 

Hey, I made a rhyme! :)

post #6 of 16
When the hell will Apple release the iToilet? I've been holding it in for years in anticipation and I'm at risk of bursting open at any minute. For the love of God, Tim, announce the toilet!!
post #7 of 16

It's certainly possible that Apple could release the new iPads this spring, but not probable at this point (my opinon). I just think we'd be seeing more leaks of the redesigned iPad 5 by now if a spring release was on tap, not to mention the very short life of the iPad 4 if true.

 

Cook did say (in regards to the iPad) they're not not slowing down, pedal to the metal - surely he didn't just mean a 128 GB iPad?  That is hardly "pedal to the metal."  A redesigned iPad 5 and iPad mini with retina display by Q2, now THAT is pedal to the metal.

post #8 of 16
Ha-ha...those silly analysts!(I don't want to use expletives)They so obviously don't have a clue, its quite hilarious!
post #9 of 16
Analysts are paid to speculate all day long and play spin master to build up hype for stocks and to get people to buy into their BS. iPad 4 came out in the fall after what 7 months after the iPad 3 and the 128GB iPad just lauch a couple of weeks ago. I think if Apple was going to launch a new iPad this spring they would have waited a bit longer on the 128GB variant. Can they afford to piss off their customers with such rapid release cycles, I guess so but its not without consequences.

I would hope we see the next iPhone announced at WWDC with a launch in July so we can return to summer iPhones, and move iPads to the fall, say Sept/Oct in time for the holiday season. Unless they want to change the iPad vs iPad mini release cycle to keep more refresh cycle's going Spring (mini), Summer (iPhone), Fall (iPad), iTouch's go where they go.
post #10 of 16
Another shot at the dartboard. If Apple did change the screen size, would that mess up developers or existing apps if the ratio was different? Or is this guy speculating that Apple would keep the screen size the same and decrease the bezel?
post #11 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Munster is likely to look dumb when it turns out that the iPads are shifting to a fall release.

Everyone has a prediction. Why are analysts' predictions written up as articles on AppleInsider? Do we really give that much credence to the Jim Cramers of the world?

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post #12 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Munster is likely to look dumb when it turns out that the iPads are shifting to a fall release.

The next event being about new iPads seems unlikely. We just had a 128GB model released to the line up. I think the Autumn is more likely, along with new iPods.
Edited by SolipsismX - 2/15/13 at 11:14am

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post #13 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

The next even being about new iPads seems unlikely. We just had a 128GB model released to the line up. I think the Autumn is more likely, along with new iPods.

Again people are angry with rumours on a rumour site and Apple going outside their comfort zone.

A new 10" iPad model makes sense right now if they can make it lighter. The bump to a higher capacity is not a model change. Apple want to win in Tablets. Last year they released 3 models. Why not upgrade as soon as possible.
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post #14 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Munster is likely to look dumb when it turns out that the iPads are shifting to a fall release.

Fixed that for Mr. Munster ¡
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post #15 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post


Fixed that for Mr. Munster ¡

 

if you were going to fix it then shouldn't it be 

 

Munster is likely to look dumb when it turns out the iPad is shifting to a fall release

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #16 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


Again people are angry with rumours on a rumour site and Apple going outside their comfort zone.

A new 10" iPad model makes sense right now if they can make it lighter. The bump to a higher capacity is not a model change. Apple want to win in Tablets. Last year they released 3 models. Why not upgrade as soon as possible.

That's how I feel: get a standard sized model out that follows the mini/iPhone 5 design, if they go IGZO for the screen battery life would be fine (or heck, improved).

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