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Apple expected to sell 55M iPad minis, 33M iPads in 2013

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
Shipments of 9.7-inch tablets like Apple's full-size iPad "collapsed" in January, setting the stage for the iPad mini to be the market leader in 2013.

NPD DisplaySearch


In a post to its official blog on Thursday, NPD DisplaySearch revealed it has heard that Apple may currently be planning to ship 55 million iPad minis and 33 million iPads this year. That's a major change from the company's apparent plans in December, when Apple had expected to ship 40 million iPad minis and 60 million full-size iPads this year.

If Apple were to sell 88 million iPads this year, it would be a significant increase from 2012, when the company sold 58.31 million iPads.

Apple apparently changed course on its 2013 plans after shipments of 9.7-inch tablets "collapsed," falling from 7.4 million in December to 1.3 million in January. Meanwhile, shipments of 7-inch tablets, like Google's Nexus 7, and 7.9-inch tablets, like the iPad mini, grew from 12 million to 14 million.

As Apple has shifted its approach, competitors are also said to be preferring to build tablets in the 7-to-9-inch range. "White box" companies based in China also reportedly prefer tablets with smaller screen sizes.

NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that tablet PC shipments will reach 254 million in 2013, up from 160 million in 2012. Of those, tablets in the size range of 5 inches to 8.9 inches will account for 136 million units, while those from 9 to 10 inches will reach 118 million units.
post #2 of 34
Um if larger iPad display sales "collapsed" I'd chalk it up to people sweating what was the normal refresh's expected this time of year for the past three.. I've got the iPad 3 my wife the mini - she's hooked solid on it.. Am loving games like Temple Run 2 on mine.. Amazing ..
post #3 of 34
Npd forgets that a new lighter thinner smaller ipad 9.7 is right around the corner!
The is a momentery skew till the new ipad comes out.
Also their numbers dont add up.
Ipad had aprox 50% market share of thablets in 2012... Yet npd numbers indicate 35% market share.
And project 30% for 2013.
Those are inconsitant with other data out there!
post #4 of 34
Maybe the full-size iPad's weight and bulk compared to the Mini put people off?
post #5 of 34
I don't remember apple saying how many iPads the expected to sell in 2013. That's because they did not. It's analyst and these "research" groups that have 0 clue what apple is upto
post #6 of 34
The larger iPad will see massive bump in 2013 with the tech going under the glass. The iPad mini will see a solid bump but not like the iPad.
post #7 of 34
This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these. Can Tim Cook make this many? Once retina display comes they won't be able to make enough, margins will shrink from the more expensive screen and yields down again. They had no choice to do this as if they did not it would be done to them by someone else.

This is what happens when competition enters. They have to create a whole new category as big as iphone or ipad to keep the stock where it is today. Otherwise we'll just keep seeing flat to negative growth as the competitive advantage continues to decline
post #8 of 34

Is this the year that Apple is supposed to chew through it's $137,000,000,000 cash pile in order to stay alive? Doesn't seem like it, with these sales predictions. An analyst told me so, so I'm confused. 

post #9 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these. Can Tim Cook make this many? Once retina display comes they won't be able to make enough, margins will shrink from the more expensive screen and yields down again. They had no choice to do this as if they did not it would be done to them by someone else.

This is what happens when competition enters. They have to create a whole new category as big as iphone or ipad to keep the stock where it is today. Otherwise we'll just keep seeing flat to negative growth as the competitive advantage continues to decline

How do we know these numbers are accurate?  Apple has never split out sales of iPad and mini.  And  they certainly don't give guidance that way.  This is just more FUD to drive the stock down and have people screaming about Apple needing to compete in a race to the bottom. 1oyvey.gif

post #10 of 34
Someone is having reading or accuracy problems (never let facts get in the way of good FUD). Here's what was said in December:

"We believe that Apple is targeting total iPad shipments of 100 million in 2013, half accounted for by the iPad mini, and 40 million new iPad and 10 million iPad 2, as production continues at least until the middle of 2013. As our Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report forecasts the 2013 tablet PC market to be over 170 million, if Apple hits its targets it will continue its domination at approximately 60% market share."

They've upped their original WAG from 50M to 55M. 10%. If AppleInsider can't get basic facts like that straight, they'd better not strain their collective brains trying to figure out where and why full sized iPad supply may have shifted (hint: it hasn't collapsed as claimed).
post #11 of 34

Groan. Another bit of third-rate analysis/estimates trotted out by AI as the gospel truth. It does not have anywhere near the right market share estimate (probably closer to 80% - 90% based on actual sales -- not 'shipments' -- and well over that for cash flows) nor does it allow for the fact that a major product refresh (thinner, lighter) is probably just a couple of months away.

post #12 of 34
This "data" is ridiculous. For December, 2012, they show 25 M tablets (total) and only 8 M 9.7" tablets (not all of which are Apple's).

I don't think I've seen ANYTHING that suggests that Apple's share was that low.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #13 of 34
Why belive in such bogus reports where they cant even get facts right , let alone forcasting future.

Npd say total tablet sales were 170million in 2012????? No it was around 110 million... Ipad accounts for more than 50% .. Not 35 %.
Most data out there forcasts 170 million units fir 2013... Not 270 million..
If apple maintains market share of 50%... Then they are in for aprox 85 million units in2013 given the 170 million toal tablets for 2013.
If npd number of 270 million is any where near correct the ipad sales will be close to 135 million not 85 million.

The numbers in this article are all over the place and totally inconsitant and bogus.
And also it totally discounts two issues.
Ipad 9.7 with mini fiormfactor ( lighter, smaller, thinner) is right around the corner!
Ipad mini retina may also be introduced.
These will reshuffle numbers totally.
This report is totally usless and contains missinformation
post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these. Can Tim Cook make this many? Once retina display comes they won't be able to make enough, margins will shrink from the more expensive screen and yields down again. They had no choice to do this as if they did not it would be done to them by someone else.

This is what happens when competition enters. They have to create a whole new category as big as iphone or ipad to keep the stock where it is today. Otherwise we'll just keep seeing flat to negative growth as the competitive advantage continues to decline

As long as Apple does not give in to 'the market' and panic, but instead sticks to its mission of creating the best devices it possibly can, we should be OK. 

 

Now, if there was a way of charging design and innovation royalties from the other guys, we'd be even more OK.

post #15 of 34
Suggestion to apple insider..Don't mess around your credibility by posting erroneous articles like this!
A few more and i am out of the circle... Have your editors check a few very readily available stats before they confirm the validity of an article and before u guys put your credibility on the line when u post it!
post #16 of 34
"mvigod 2013/02/28 04:50pm
This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these."

Actually.......no. The mini has an ASP roughly 2/3 of the full sized iPad, so only need to sell 50% more. 50% more is only half the increase you're claiming. That wouldn't be a problem at all.
post #17 of 34
"This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these. Can Tim Cook make this many? "

ASP of mini 2/3 of full sized iPad, so only need to sell 50% more, not double. That's half your claimed increase, which would be easy to hit.
post #18 of 34
Given these lies, Apple stock will be selling for like 9.00 a share by spring... The s&*t pile of stupid surrounding what's doing at Apple is getting raunchy.... Time for a analyst turd-out....
post #19 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

This is what happens when competition enters. They have to create a whole new category as big as iphone or ipad to keep the stock where it is today. Otherwise we'll just keep seeing flat to negative growth as the competitive advantage continues to decline

A whole new category, eh?  Absurd.

Please go away and take your flat/negative growth idea with you.

post #20 of 34

I just laugh at how people, especially the media takes this stuff at face value and never questions the source or accuracy.  And makes the assumption it's all down to price and not a preference for the form factor.  I hear lots of people talking about how much they love the mini but I haven't come across many, if any, who said they wanted the full size iPad but got the mini because it was cheaper.  I've come across more people who said they wished the full size iPad was as thin and light and had the same design language as the mini.  If/when that happens I'll be curious to know what the sales split is between the two.

post #21 of 34
this is what i hate (among other things) about analyst. one month, they can claim apple ordered 65MM parts. The next, they say they actually cut the order to 40-45 MM parts. When in actuality the order was 45MM to begin with. and yet nothing happens to them.
post #22 of 34

I don't know why every Apple's product is faced with display constraints. MBP Retina: retina panels not good enough. iMac: screen lamination process. iPad 3: retina screen shortage again. iPad Mini: display shortage (on non-retina model???).

 

Why can't Apple just buy Sharp and use their technology to make all the screens they want?

post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

this is what i hate (among other things) about analyst. one month, they can claim apple ordered 65MM parts. The next, they say they actually cut the order to 40-45 MM parts. When in actuality the order was 45MM to begin with. and yet nothing happens to them.

And you know the most outrageous thing? Apple stock doesn't move up when news like this is release. But it will go down when the "correction" comes and they claim "lower than expected demand". The demand was never there. Nobody knows how much Apple is planning to sell. They may purposely inflate their order numbers to confuse the supply chain leaks.

post #24 of 34

Apple expected to go bankrupt, kill babies in 2013

 

Who knows, this might actually raise the stock instead of good news.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply
post #25 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these. Can Tim Cook make this many? Once retina display comes they won't be able to make enough, margins will shrink from the more expensive screen and yields down again. They had no choice to do this as if they did not it would be done to them by someone else.

This is what happens when competition enters. They have to create a whole new category as big as iphone or ipad to keep the stock where it is today. Otherwise we'll just keep seeing flat to negative growth as the competitive advantage continues to decline

 

 

People keep saying that Apple makes less margin on the iPad mini.  I know if sells for less, but I suspect that it also cost significantly less to produce...

 

Does any one have any real proof that the iPad Mini creates significantly less profit for Apple than the iPad? 

 

I honest do not know if it does or does not, but people keep stating it as a fact and I have seen no real proof one way or the other....


Edited by sranger - 2/28/13 at 5:56pm
post #26 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

I don't know why every Apple's product is faced with display constraints. MBP Retina: retina panels not good enough. iMac: screen lamination process. iPad 3: retina screen shortage again. iPad Mini: display shortage (on non-retina model???).

 

Why can't Apple just buy Sharp and use their technology to make all the screens they want?

 

Unfortunately, Samsung was the only one that could produce enough displays to keep up with Apple's demand.  I can understand why Apple dumped them, but it has been an issue ever since....

 

I built industrial touch screen computers during the 90's.  I always had more trouble/failures with Sharp displays that any other manufacture at the time....

post #27 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Who knows, this might actually raise the stock instead of good news.

Link? WSJ, probably.

Seriously, that was good for a laugh, much needed.
post #28 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

I don't know why every Apple's product is faced with display constraints. MBP Retina: retina panels not good enough. iMac: screen lamination process. iPad 3: retina screen shortage again. iPad Mini: display shortage (on non-retina model???).

Why can't Apple just buy Sharp and use their technology to make all the screens they want?

Well, they have a bad habit of pushing the envelope on these screens. The mini was also kind of a lamination issue, maybe, with the G/F2 move.

I really wish we had some good background reporting on their display technology that is designed for a general audience. It seems they and Foxconn are buying pieces of Sharp to get IGZO underway. It's a big story, but where can you read about it? Besides DigiTimes, that is.
post #29 of 34
My interest in the full-size iPad (much as I love mine) collapsed like a smoker's lung when I felt how light the Mini is.

Will interest in the full-size iPad rebound when/if it too is much lighter? I think mine will... but I'll just have to hold both!

Right now, it seems like the Mini is the better product and the best size for most people.
post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

This is not good for apple. With a much lower average selling price (ASP) they have to sell twice as many just to do the same revenue and profit on these.

Well... people buy what they want. The bigger iPad with the higher ASP is still available... if they choose.

Look at it this way: a person buying an iPad Mini at $330 is better than a person NOT buying a regular iPad at $500.

At least both iPads are profitable... they're not selling the iPad Mini at cost just to make their numbers go up.

Ford would love you to buy a Mustang for $27,000.... but they're fine if you only buy a Fiesta for $17,000

Again... both models make money.
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:

Apple expected to go bankrupt, kill babies in 2013



Who knows, this might actually raise the stock instead of good news.

That might work! Or perhaps a:

"Apple grinds to a halt"

post #32 of 34
The sooner a refreshed 9.7" ipad comes out the better. The chip bump on ipad 4 was nice, but the mini showed what the device could be.
post #33 of 34

If the mini had a retina display I'd be interested.

In the meantime I'm waiting for the iPad 5 whether it's a step forward big enough to replace my iPad 3. The iPad 4 wasn't.

post #34 of 34
Originally Posted by smalM View Post
...a step forward big enough to replace my iPad 3. The iPad 4 wasn't.

 

There are a dozen arguments that prove this wrong.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply
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