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Apple remains 'very optimistic' about upcoming products as analysts cut targets

post #1 of 78
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A number of analysts reduced their price targets for Apple on Wednesday, though one who just met with the company's executives said those officials are "very optimistic" about the product pipeline and market position.

Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays Capital met on Wednesday with Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer and Senior Vice President of Worldwide Marketing Phil Schiller. At the company's Cupertino, Calif., headquarters they discussed a number of topics including potential uses for the company's cash as well as future prospects for the iPhone and iPad.

2013 Predictions
Apple's predicted 2013 product pipeline by KGI Securities.


Unsurprisingly, the officials did not hint at where Apple may go in the future. But they did express confidence to Reitzes about where Apple is positioned.

"We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate ??and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said. "We believe the company has a strong product pipeline ramping in (the second half of calendar 2013) ??with new platform innovations as well, in our opinion."

Reitzes still believes that Apple will introduce a lower-cost phone based on the iPhone 5 design later this year, along with a next-generation "iPhone 5S."

But the analyst still lowered his price target on Wednesday, from $575 to $530. Reitzes stressed that this reduction was not a result of his meeting with Schiller and Oppenheimer, but was instead something that his team has been considering for days.

Barclays
Source: Barclays Capital.


Barclays wasn't alone on Wednesday in reducing its price target for AAPL stock, as Citigroup ? which has been bearish on Apple for months ??lowered its projection from $500 to $480. As noted by Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Apple 2.0, Citi's target is one of the lowest forecasts among Wall Street analysts.

And Adnaan Ahmad of Berenberg Bank went one step further, calling the smartphone investment "dead" in a note to investors on Wednesday. He believes investors should concentrate on the smartphone "trade" with companies like Apple and Samsung, rather than long-term holdings.

"Apple and Samsung margins are peaking and growth is going to be driven by the margin-dilutive mid-to-low-end segment in the next 24 months," he said. "In our opinion, this will translate into poorer industry fundamentals."
post #2 of 78

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

post #3 of 78
You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date."

Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?
post #4 of 78

Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.

post #5 of 78

Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  Not saying they wont continue to be a cash cow, but EPS contraction will start next quarter and continue unless they come up with a new, high margin product that would have mass appeal.  So lets get the dividend up to 3.5% and at least make the wait more enjoyable.

post #6 of 78

The year old 4s outsold the Samsung flagship and the iPhone 5 DOUBLED the S 3's sales.

 

That's a lot of money appeal and that's what piles up the cash. Not loss leader "marketshare" filler.

post #7 of 78
"We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said.

I doubt anyone at Apple is working hard to 'prove' anything to anyone. They're working to create great stuff. Why "react" when you can "create"?
Edited by Ricochet - 3/6/13 at 1:40pm
post #8 of 78
Wow... if Apple actually does dip down to anywhere near that $325 "downside" over the next 12 months, I'm going to be buying everything I can get my hands on. Especially if their market position remains as strong as it is. At that price, there will be nowhere to go but up.

$325… At current earnings levels…? Are we really heading down to below a 5x multiplier on Apple?

I agree with anantksundaram. Not doubling down on Apple at these prices is something people will look back on with regret…
post #9 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

 

 I actually think being so quite is hurting them these days.  If their new schedule is to go 6 months without any product announcement (assuming we won't see anything until WWDC) that's a long time to be silent and creates a vacuum that right now is being filled with FUD and D&G.  Part of me is hoping they have something to announce in April or May.  But another part is not wanting them to release anything that's not ready, and not to release just for the sake of it, just to fill a lull in the calendar.

post #10 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  

Care to name a major Apple product that's not great?

 

That is the 'average' for Apple. You're confusing Apple and the industry.

post #11 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

 

Thank goodness my computing devices are NOT made by a company who "watches their stock holdings on a daily basis."

 

Long-term (read: smart) investors are glad too.

 

 


Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" ...

 

I don't believe he does.

post #12 of 78

It's somewhat strange that the Goldman Sachs forecast of $660 somehow slipped from the news reports.  They ranked Apple at $442 a bargain!  In any case, after spending 40 years in high tech sales and marketing, I'm comfortable with their numbers and outlook.  Forbes called them the most respected Company in the world and a positive cash flow last quarter of $23 Billion isn't all that bad.  Time will tell, but I believe Apple is an 800 pound gorilla that is under attack for not inventing the wheel twice a year.  

post #13 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricochet View Post

"We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said.

I doubt anyone at Apple is working hard to prove anyone wrong. They're working to create great stuff. Why "react" when you can "create"?

 

Exactly.  Some of us actually care about the future of technology and creating/using great products which enrich and fundamentally change our lives.  Unfortunately, the people who only know money have somehow been heralded as the technological visionaries in recent times.

 
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post #14 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.

 

Nope, because by that time the financial fantasy world that the US Government and economy have been living in will have collapsed and the sales of expensive goods like Apple's products will take a major tumble.

 

-kpluck

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post #15 of 78

And where's the MacPro system?  That should be announced either later this month or next quarter.  There's 3 years of pent up demand for that product.  While it's not a HUGE amount of money like the iPhone, it should at least help matters with regards to June quarter sales if it gets announced this month, if they delay it until next quarter, then it will improve the Sept quarter numbers.

post #16 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

Are you as limited as them?

 

Aren't you tired of watching Apple not being able to keep up with demand, selling more and more of everything, making more money than all OEMs + Microsoft and google together?

post #17 of 78
New design retina mac book pro in q3 doesn't make sense and there is no mention of the imminent Mac Pro.
post #18 of 78
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
Cook calls everything they release… …"perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."

 

Citation needed.


Originally Posted by virtua View Post
New design retina mac book pro in q3 doesn't make sense and there is no mention of the imminent Mac Pro.

 

That chart has ALWAYS been BS. I have no idea why AI keeps using it.

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post #19 of 78
"You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date." Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?"

Um, let's see . . . If you divide a 12 month calendar into quarters, how many months would each quarter have? - Stock Weenie : )
post #20 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

Apple could announce a cure for cancer and WS would say "still not good enough. Not enough cancer patients to be profitable"
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  Not saying they wont continue to be a cash cow, but EPS contraction will start next quarter and continue unless they come up with a new, high margin product that would have mass appeal.  So lets get the dividend up to 3.5% and at least make the wait more enjoyable.

Apple's "great" is still great. EPS would rise as they probably sold more Macs, iDevices this year over last and did not succumb to the cheap crap market share filler.
post #21 of 78
Good...let them reduce their targets. Then when Apple kills those more sensible targets, the stock will rise again.

I've said it a million times before, but one of the most profitable companies on the planet, #2 in market cap, no debt, tons of cash, did amazingly well during the recession, but the stock loses tons of value from the peak. Insanity.

And in the above chart (and not that it contributes much revenue), but where's the MacPro? I thought we were seeing that in 2013.
post #22 of 78
WOT! no MacPro in that timeline....
post #23 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

 

What a shitty post. Out of all the technology companies out there, and probably every major company in the world, Apple is the ONLY ONE that keeps quiet about future products, never hypes anything up, and only announces something when they're ready to show it off in fully and release it shortly. When was the last time Apple publically made specific statements about future products? When was the last time they had a teaser about anything?  Tim Cook reassuring investors, when specifically asked, that he's "confident" about their future pipeline does not count as talking about future products. 

 

Also, Apple doesn't give a shit about the yoyo-ing of the stock. They will announce and release those products when those products are READY, not prematurely as a desperate attempt to raise the stock a bit. You want them to announce that they will show off an iWatch in 6 months, so that competitors can do their best to rip it off before then, and so that the hype builds to insane levels, only to dissapoint? Even after Jobs' death, Apple's secretiveness has not changed. I'm glad people like you aren't in charge of Apple, panicking and willing to time announcements based on stock price, as you'd have driven the company into the ground a long time ago. The reason Apple has been successful is that they don't plan quarter to quarter, they ignore that noise, and make decisions based on the the longhaul. Your short-sighted thinking is what poisons companies and eventually brings them down. 


Edited by Slurpy - 3/6/13 at 4:54pm
post #24 of 78
Interesting timetable rumour. Don't think 1/4 are right. MOST importantly, it misses out on OS release. Does this mean we are stuck with ML till next year!?
post #25 of 78

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:30pm
post #26 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date."

Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?

 

Calendar     Apple Fiscal                                          Months

Q1                 Q2                                             Jan Feb March

Q2                 Q3                                             Apr May June

Q3                 Q4                                             July Aug Sept

Q4                 Q1 (of following year)                   Oct Nov Dec

 

The Qs refer to quarters, divide the year by 4 and you have 4 separate quarters.

 

Most analysts speak in terms of the calendar quarters.  Apple's Fiscal year starts October 1.  So Apple's own Q1 coincides with the calendar Q4.

 

In calendar quarters, Q2 ends June 30th, Q4 begins on October 1st.  Companies usually report their earnings several weeks after a given quarter ends.  So Apple will release their fiscal Q1 results (calendar Q4) toward the end of January, reporting on their performance during the months of October, November, and December.

 

-Stock weenie

post #27 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by kpluck View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.

 

Nope, because by that time the financial fantasy world that the US Government and economy have been living in will have collapsed and the sales of expensive goods like Apple's products will take a major tumble.

 

-kpluck

That's what people like you hoped for during the worst recession we've seen (2008-10) since the Great Depression, and guess what happened to Apple's volumes, pricing, EBIT, profits, and stock price during that period?

 

Check it out, and come back and let us know, will ya?lol.gif

post #28 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.

When do you think Apple will surpass its all-time high, and by what percentage?

There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.

 

If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.

 

Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.

post #29 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

The pessismistic view of this is that this is a sign that we haven't seen the REAL depression yet.

Other than for a few nut cases, no one expects that!

post #30 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Sure, that's possible. But it becomes a serious problem only if you're poorly diversified. Then you'd deserve it too.

 

That said, even if poorly diversified, the probability that the market's irrationality will outlive your solvency is inversely proportional to your horizon.

 

A 3 - 5 year horizon is something that I'd be quite comfortable with, in placing bets, since most marginal investors (that constitute much of the 'market' trades) can't/don't last that long.

post #31 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.

 

If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.

 

Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.

 

I love logical,  pragmatic posts like this one. We need more of them. 

post #32 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

No one expected this one either, other than a few nut cases.

You really need to read more, think more, and knee-jerk less.

 

There were dozens and dozens of pretty smart people shouting from the rooftops about inflated housing, structured finance, derivatives, and financial markets in 2007/08. Names I can offhand think of include Shiller, Krugman, Buffett, Roubini, Taleb..... not to mention many financial services firms (including even some hedge funds that you seem to like a lot).

post #33 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Q. Public View Post

"You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date." Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?"

Um, let's see . . . If you divide a 12 month calendar into quarters, how many months would each quarter have? - Stock Weenie : )

Posts that begin with "Um" are usually full of it.

 

FYI, Apple’s fiscal year 2013 runs from September 30, 2012 through September 28, 2013.

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post #34 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricochet View Post

Why "react" when you can "create"?

 

I agree. Hopefully they will create something in the near future after three years of tweaking existing products.

post #35 of 78
Originally Posted by woodbine View Post
WOT! no MacPro in that timeline....
Originally Posted by scottyltd View Post
Interesting timetable rumour. Don't think 1/4 are right. MOST importantly, it misses out on OS release. Does this mean we are stuck with ML till next year!?

 

The chart is utter crap. Do not pay attention to the chart.

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post #36 of 78
I want to know what happened to all those great statistics and positive reviews these same analysts had 4 months ago when they were singing targets of $1000 to $1200 . Nothing has changed other than they broke even in earnings YoY (14Week Qtr vs 13Week Qtr) and they couldn't make iPads and iMacs fast enough from their September Intro and they missed projected numbers even though there was YoY positive growth. iPads have been readily available for a little over a month now and iMacs have finally reached current availability for standard configurations BTO are still holding at 3wks. I really think some of these hedge fund managers manipulated the stock and then forced it to tank by doing late (POST fiscal cliff) profit taking.
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post #37 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  Not saying they wont continue to be a cash cow, but EPS contraction will start next quarter and continue unless they come up with a new, high margin product that would have mass appeal.  So lets get the dividend up to 3.5% and at least make the wait more enjoyable.

 

Give ONE example of Cook calling a SINGLE Apple product perfect. Just ONE. If you can't, then stop talking out of your ass. I'm tried of intellectually dishonest people like yourself just hyping horse-shit for the sake of it, which has no factual basis in reality, in order to smear and mock. 

 

Also, if you go by reviews, and customer satisfaction, Apple products by and large ARE pretty great. Every single Apple device released in 2012 got fantastic reviews, from the Retina Mabooks, to the iMacs, to the iPad mini. Why shouldn't Apple's executive team be allowed to use positive adjectives to describe their products? Their products are indeed great, as would aknowledge the vast majority of people who use them.  The fact that you're butt-hurt over the word "great" doesn't change that fact. 

post #38 of 78
The 2013 roadmap shows the whole story of why AAPL has plummeted 37% in the last 6 months: innovation has stalled at Apple Inc. since the death of Steve Jobs.

Apple hasn't announced a major new product since the original iPad. That was 3 years ago. Every product since then has been a refinement of an existing product.

Wall Street understands that the only reason Apple is the dominant player in the marketplace today is because of its relentless innovation while Jobs was at the helm. They're betting that now that he's gone, Apple will revert to playing it safe, hence the steady sell-off. And so far they've been correct. Apple is well on its way to becoming just another tech company. like HP or Microsoft, where products are evolutionary rather than revolutionary and everything is designed by a committee. There's no Steve Jobs around with the vision to dream up insanely great products we didn't know we needed until he showed them to us. And there's no one to kick butts until the design matches the vision. Apple is on a fast track to mediocrity and The Street knows it.
post #39 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by KennMSr View Post

I want to know what happened to all those great statistics and positive reviews these same analysts had 4 months ago when they were singing targets of $1000 to $1200 . Nothing has changed other than they broke even in earnings YoY (14Week Qtr vs 13Week Qtr) and they couldn't make iPads and iMacs fast enough from their September Intro and they missed projected numbers even though there was YoY positive growth. iPads have been readily available for a little over a month now and iMacs have finally reached current availability for standard configurations BTO are still holding at 3wks. I really think some of these hedge fund managers manipulated the stock and then forced it to tank by doing late (POST fiscal cliff) profit taking.

Nothing really happened, it is just that analysts predictions generally reflect what has happened in the near past much better that what is likely to happen in the near to mid future.

Most analysts are very poor 'emotional' investors as they not only have to reflect what their research indicates but use terribly short timescales of past data to do so. This rarely gives a good indication of what is likely to happen.

 

There have been a number of studies regarding this and the conclusion that is often drawn is that analysts are just picking the wrong data sets in the first place and therefore cannot help but come up with poor conclusions.

 

I would always be happier to listen to an economists view and draw my own conclusions as they tend to be looking at lessons learned over a much longer period and sometimes even learning lessons from the past.

 

On the other hand I always get very uncomfortable when anyone starts saying it is different this time and so the previous experience doesn't count. That is a sell or buy signal for me and has usually served me pretty well. Being a long term, informed contrarian will generally leave you up. Just don't believe you are smart when you get lucky :)

post #40 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis

It's the stock market. it will go up and down throughout the day. Those that can't fluctuation should not be investors.

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