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Citing supply chain checks, Jefferies cuts Apple price target to $420

post #1 of 158
Thread Starter 
Investment firm Jefferies believes there is a 25 percent chance Apple will miss its quarterly guidance, and has accordingly cut its price target for AAPL from $500 to $420.

Jefferies


Analysts have become increasingly pessimistic on Apple as the company's stock has fallen since the launch of the iPhone 5 last September. Among those bears is Peter Misek of Jefferies, whose new price target is below what AAPL stock is currently trading at.

Misek came under fire last month when he cited "channel checks" that allegedly indicated Apple was planning a product event in March related to the Apple TV set-top box. But reliable Apple commentator Jim Dalrymple of The Loop quickly refuted those claims and said Apple would not be holding such an event.

In his latest note to investors, Misek said his checks with Apple suppliers have indicated that Apple is reportedly having problems with new casing colors. He said that Apple had hoped to launch its so-called "iPhone 5S" in June, but now the device will debut between July and September.

Misek also claims that some of the components for Apple's rumored low-end iPhone are higher than he expected, including a 4-inch Retina display and the same application processor as the iPhone 5S. As such , he expects the pricing of the handset will be between $350 and $450.

Jefferies


The analyst has cut his iPhone estimate for the current quarter from 37.5 million to 35 million. He sees the company reporting revenues of $41 billion, but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.

Analysts and investors largely viewed Apple's previous holiday quarter as disappointing, as evidenced by the continued slump seen in the company's stock price. But despite that perception, the company still outperformed all of the most profitable U.S. companies with net income of $13.1 billion.

When Apple's stock was on its upward trajectory, market watchers had high hopes, with price targets as great as $1,111 by Topeka Capital Markets. And though executives at the company have signaled they are "very optimistic" about their product pipeline, a number of analysts have continued to cut their targets, citing increased competition from rivals like Samsung and Mac sales that slumped in the December quarter.
post #2 of 158

Another one to the ignore list.

post #3 of 158
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.
post #4 of 158
Analysts lowering projections hopefully means only one thing... AAPL will beat them and reverse the trend of the past 6 months.
post #5 of 158

So what was the drop from 700 to 430 then?  Shouldn't this alleged bad news already be priced into the stock?  And how many Apple suppliers would actually talk to a Wall Street analyst?  Wouldn't most of them have NDA's?  I have a hard time taking these people seriously because they can predict anything and nothing happens if their predictions don't come true.  So what incentive do they have to be accurate?  Nobody seems to care if they're not.

post #6 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Another one to the ignore list.

Sad thing, too many people will believe guys like this.

post #7 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.

Ok, I'll take the bait. It's early.

Apple is getting worse? Really? By what measuring stick? Wouldn't a better argument be that Apple is stagnant while its competition grows? I'd disagree with that, but it would be defensible.

Which product cycle did they whiff on? The iPad? The iPhone 5? The iPad mini? Perhaps you're talking about the Mac, which is a small fraction of their business, and one that was down for a single quarter due to supply constraints.

What haven't they executed? The only thing I can think of is some half-baked web services they've tried to push, but they've been doing that for years, even when the stock was high.
post #8 of 158
Supply chain check ??? Did he check his axxholes too ?
post #9 of 158
Next thing you know apple price target is cut to -100 , this people are ridiculous.
post #10 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Sad thing, too many people will believe guys like this.

Too many, like our new nervous Nellie jndc123, whom we are going to have to deal with presently, it looks like. He's on the job today again.

As Tim Cook tried to tell everybody, trying to draw any conclusions from supply chan "news" is stupid. He didn't really say "stupid," of course, but that is what he meant.

Another thing that is stupid is basing any long-term prediction on what Apple is NOT doing right now. We will have no idea what Apple's intentions are for its empire until late this year. To be chewing your nails publicly and shrieking fearful demands at Tim Cook, like jndc 123 is doing here—to be doing that at this time is ridiculously premature, or immature.

"Analysts" like Misek and Jeffries of couse make a living at this. jndc 123 is of course doing it for free.
post #11 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpvn View Post

Next thing you know apple price target is cut to -100 , this people are ridiculous.

Well that would be great. If I buy 1 million AAPL stocks, I would get 100 Million cash.1biggrin.gif

 

I would hate to see a great company like Apple to be ripped apart like that though.1frown.gif

post #12 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post


Ok, I'll take the bait. It's early.

Apple is getting worse? Really? By what measuring stick? Wouldn't a better argument be that Apple is stagnant while its competition grows? I'd disagree with that, but it would be defensible.

Which product cycle did they whiff on? The iPad? The iPhone 5? The iPad mini? Perhaps you're talking about the Mac, which is a small fraction of their business, and one that was down for a single quarter due to supply constraints.

What haven't they executed? The only thing I can think of is some half-baked web services they've tried to push, but they've been doing that for years, even when the stock was high.

 

They're not getting worse, but I'd dare say they've been moving slow and competitors are catching up quickly.  I hope they're spending some of that cash hoard on a blockbuster iOS 7.  Apple has plenty of money and market share no matter what they do, but as an investor I hope they do something big this year.

post #13 of 158

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

post #14 of 158
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.

 

Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.


Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post
I hope they're spending some of that cash hoard on a blockbuster iOS 7.  Apple has plenty of money and market share no matter what they do, but as an investor I hope they do something big this year.

 

Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"? 

PhilBoogie
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post #15 of 158
Earnings tell all. We'll find out who is right in about a month and a half.

Frankly I think there is a good chance it will be a rough quarter because the comp for 2Q is pretty tough. Starting in 3Q the comps get easier.
post #16 of 158
As much as I am an AAPL fan, the troll posts indicating doom and gloom for Apple's future are important to read. There are a number of people who think Samsung is now more innovative than Apple, and a number of others that would say Google is more innovative.

Google, maybe, but not Samsung. It is the "think different" crowd that simply wants to avoid Apple and is using any viable alternative to take on the opportunity.

One co-worker got an S3 recently, and wants to dump it off on his wife and get something else. I suggested he use it for a "loaner" in the office for a month and let people see how "great" it is. That is about all it takes to destroy Samsung's sales.
post #17 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by golfman View Post

Earnings tell all. We'll find out who is right in about a month and a half.

Frankly I think there is a good chance it will be a rough quarter because the comp for 2Q is pretty tough. Starting in 3Q the comps get easier.


Please explain.

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post #18 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

One co-worker got an S3 recently, and wants to dump it off on his wife and get something else. I suggested he use it for a "loaner" in the office for a month and let people see how "great" it is. That is about all it takes to destroy Samsung's sales.

 

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

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post #19 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post


Ok, I'll take the bait. It's early.

Apple is getting worse? Really? By what measuring stick? Wouldn't a better argument be that Apple is stagnant while its competition grows? I'd disagree with that, but it would be defensible.

Which product cycle did they whiff on? The iPad? The iPhone 5? The iPad mini? Perhaps you're talking about the Mac, which is a small fraction of their business, and one that was down for a single quarter due to supply constraints.

What haven't they executed? The only thing I can think of is some half-baked web services they've tried to push, but they've been doing that for years, even when the stock was high.

Fair.  Apple is stagnating.  Innovation is lacking.  That being said, Apple's earnings are shrinking while its competitors grow.

 

The market believes Apple whiffed on a large screen and 'low-cost' iPhone, that they are late to the game.

 

There are nearly daily stories of supply chain problems, delays, etc.  Maybe its just normal stuff that gets highlighted b/c Apple isn't integrated and Samsung is, but Samsung moved forward its launch of the S4....when was the last time Apple was earlier than expected to market with something.

post #20 of 158

are these guys ever right?

post #21 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.

post #22 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Too many, like our new nervous Nellie jndc123, whom we are going to have to deal with presently, it looks like. He's on the job today again.

As Tim Cook tried to tell everybody, trying to draw any conclusions from supply chan "news" is stupid. He didn't really say "stupid," of course, but that is what he meant.

Another thing that is stupid is basing any long-term prediction on what Apple is NOT doing right now. We will have no idea what Apple's intentions are for its empire until late this year. To be chewing your nails publicly and shrieking fearful demands at Tim Cook, like jndc 123 is doing here—to be doing that at this time is ridiculously premature, or immature.

"Analysts" like Misek and Jeffries of couse make a living at this. jndc 123 is of course doing it for free.

 

 

Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free.  I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now.  Nobody want to answer the question.  When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that.  Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total.  The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.

 

I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur.  Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?

post #23 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.


That wasn't the argument but nice try.

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post #24 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it

 

But in this case, 'they' are the analysts and hit whores. The real issue are the rumors not the facts. The analysts are the ones that are setting goals too high, they are the ones claiming to know time tables etc. if iPhone sales go into decline it will be because of folks like Jefferies claiming its a fact that the iPhone is going to return to a June release when it likely isn't.

 

Those that look at the real facts will figure Apple is moving all iOS to fall so all new hardware releases with iOS after developers get the summer to update their apps. They will also have listened to Phil say that Apple doesn't release cheap stuff (ie designed to be cheap with lesser parts etc). And so on. Pity this group is a tiny minority compared to those that think analysts etc speak truth.

post #25 of 158
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post
Apple is stagnating.  Innovation is lacking.

 

Uh………. huh.


That being said

 

And ignored…


The market believes Apple whiffed on a large screen and 'low-cost' iPhone, that they are late to the game.

 

"The market" also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE without a 2.5" iPhone that didn't have cellular data or apps of any sort. They also believed that Apple would be an EFFING FAILURE if they didn't introduce a television set. And a tower-based consumer desktop. And Blu-ray. And USB on their iDevices. And an SD card slot on their iDevices. And if Apple doesn't release a DVR, hoo-boy, they're a failure.

 

The moral of the story is that "the market" isn't the market.


There are nearly daily stories of supply chain problems, delays, etc.

 

But if you went to their website, you'd see those aren't the case.


...when was the last time Apple was earlier than expected to market with something.

 

I would imagine constantly, given that no one has ever had any clue whatsoever when Apple internally deigned to release a product, either originally or in actuality.


Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post
As much as I am an AAPL fan, the troll posts indicating doom and gloom for Apple's future are important to read.

 

It gets tiresome having to "seriously consider" the gloom and doom every second of every day. These posts indicate nothing more than a new batch (or single) of people (person) finding our site.


There are a number of people who think Samsung is now more innovative than Apple, and a number of others that would say Google is more innovative.

 

These people don't know what the word 'innovation' means, so I wouldn't worry about what they think.
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post #26 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen View Post

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

 

 

Yep, and Apple, too.  According to W. Buffett, he and Jobs spoke years ago and he advised Jobs to buy back some company stock.  Now's the time, I'd think.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Misek came under fire last month when he cited "channel checks" that allegedly indicated Apple was planning a product event in March related to the Apple TV set-top box. But reliable Apple commentator Jim Dalrymple of The Loop quickly refuted those claims and said Apple would not be holding such an event.

...but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.

 

This guy isn't credible based on his past predictions, why pay attention to him?  But I suppose the speculators will see this and the stock will drop further. 

 

Also, I'd like to see his evidence of slowing sales, please.  Where's his evidence to make such a claim?

post #27 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

The overall gross margin for all Samsung phones is about 20% compared to ~50% of Apple. Even at the high end segment (>$500 phones), Samsung is making 30-35%. Apple and Samsung are essentially following two different paths: one chasing biggest profit (Apple takes 65% of industry profit), one chases biggest unit sold number.

Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple.  Two years ago, they made half as much.  Both strategies can work and are.  Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that.  Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.

post #28 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.

One is transitory, the other long-term.
post #29 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post

 

They're not getting worse, but I'd dare say they've been moving slow and competitors are catching up quickly. 

 

But what's better, taking it slow to get their footing after losing one of their best friends and a key public figure, showing that they can hold the boat upright while they figure out the course.

 

Or pushing ahead full speed, gunning the engines even, and slamming into an ice berg they couldn't really avoid because they were going too fast to get out of the way.

 

Given their situation and that much of the current 'wow' tech is still untested or standardized, I'd say taking it slow and waiting for the dust to settle on the tech IS an innovative way of thing. It's not the same 'add it to say you have it' that the other kiddies are doing which could fail in the end. Or at least not really help them (other than the bragging rights)

post #30 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

 

Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free.  I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now.  Nobody want to answer the question.  When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that.  Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total.  The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.

 

I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur.  Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?

 

AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits.  Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.

post #31 of 158
So Misek had a Buy rating and PT of $900 last September - http://bit.ly/16ow9EK.

How much should we trust an analyst that admits he was wrong by a factor of 50%?

Analyst=congenitally challenged
post #32 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen View Post

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

 

Because these guys keep lowballing and talking like the stock won't ever go back up. Buying low is only great if you have faith you'll make some money. Most folks don't understand how or have the faith in trying to short a stock for profit (and that really works best if it drops fast)

post #33 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.

 

Why? What evidence is there for "failure" or "doing worse" even when they don't do something that one person by some magical arbitrary definition deems "blockbuster"? 

 

"Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted."

Oh come on, I'm not being rude or inflammatory.  I own the stock.  I am unhappy.  I am generally disclosing 'market concerns' not my concerns.

 

The fact of the matter this company has dropped hundred of billions of value.  It is a fair and legitimate discussion to have to ask why and what they can do to change.  I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.  

 

We all have out line in the sand.  Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?

post #34 of 158
Wait wait. So they made up news, and now the news is that Apple did not make that made-up news a reality?

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

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post #35 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

 

AAPL still takes the lion's share of profits.  Please define "shrinking" without using stock price as an indicator.

Earnings last fiscal 2Q = 12.54/share; earnings this year same quarter, likely less than $10.  That is my definition of shrink, an earnings drop of 20%.  Annual earnings at best flat, more likely ~5% below last year.  "Shrink" - when something decreases, like Apple's earnings per share are.

post #36 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Frankly it's hard to understand why we let this tripe be posted.

 

Its not that hard at all. It's called Freedom of Speech, something the board owners believe in affording to all members even if they aren't American. Although they would likely rather members, especially moderators, avoid simply calling names and actually enter into a discussion about posted comments

 

As for your second comment, I agree that many folks, particularly in this and other similar boards/sites post based on their definition of what they want to see without thought to whether it really fits Apple's game plan as evidenced by what they have done (actions not rumors). As a pro editor I would like to see the return of Shake, either alone or in something else, but I don't expect it to ever happen. Some features did stick around but not the whole thing. And I live with this because I can see from really paying attention that Apple isn't using pros as their touchstone anymore. Haven't in a while in fact. Many folks want to see the iOS with account functions. I don't see it. Apple seems to be considering iOS devices as single user. And so on.

post #37 of 158
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.

 

And yet you keep your stock in a company run by a "delusional" man and whine on forums, making things up as you go, instead of selling.

 

I wonder who's really delusional.


We all have out line in the sand.  Stock drops another 50%, Google and Samsung surpass it in value while Tim says nothing and will you be happy?

 

As long as they're still making products that people want, services that people want, and making money hand over fist every quarter, the stock can go to $1 a share for all I care. As a stockholder, what you seem to have forgotten as that none of this matters in any respect to a company that cares about innovation. Nor should it. 

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post #38 of 158
Apple is stumbling on recent product launches. Nothing lasts forever.
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post #39 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Because people are fooled by big screens, and they are not consciously repelled by glossy, greasy-shiny plastic. But I believe many are subliminally repelled by greasy-shiny over a longer period of time, and when quality again falls into their hands, they'll respond correctly. Apple's product design is based on this belief in people's innate good taste. Samsung's designs are based on people's venal attraction to shiny, glossy things.

One is transitory, the other long-term.

 

Your opinion only... of course.

 

... but at least you stayed on argument and gave a reason why Samsung's sales are growing.

We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #40 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

 

Because its cheap and many folks will buy into notion that its basically the same as iPhone etc but half the price. By the time they figure out its not its too late to return the phone for many and for the rest, the sales aren't adjusted for that return since Samsung posts channel sales which generally can't     return the phone to Samsung but have to try to resell it as a refurb etc

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