Quote:

Originally Posted by jdnc123 

2)  The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p).  High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents.  Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.

 

3)  Not sure I get the point.  

2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)

3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .

Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).

So 75 perent probability that Apple will NOT miss its guidance?

Quote:

Originally Posted by island hermit 

 

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

Samsung's sales of the S3 dropped from 18 million in the September quarter down to 15.4 million in the December (Christmas!) quarter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by e1618978 

Samsung's sales of the S3 dropped from 18 million in the September quarter down to 15.4 million in the December (Christmas!) quarter.

Who's on top seems to depend on which analyst you ask:

Is Apple iPhone the world's best selling smartphone? Researchers disagree

http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipad-iphone/news/?newsid=3427253

Quote:

Originally Posted by Plagen 

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

Without going onto this particular analyst's opinion, I think the risk in what you're saying is that if a stock is not participating when the market is moving up, then it may fall that much more when/if it goes down. Now that would likely be a shorter term concern. And I understand your point about the longer term. But one concern I've read about Apple is that if it becomes a value stock instead of a growth stock, then one might have the opportunity to buy "low" for years... like MSFT.

Personally, I think Apple is set to regain its mojo over the next couple of quarters. Assuming its next couple of product releases are successful, I think the market sentiment, which is really what's beating the stock price down, should turn positive again. I don't want it to soar. Just regain its presence in the $550-$600 range.

But with that said, I am not at all happy with Cook or how he's handled himself over the past six months or so. My unhappiness is not that he has lost focus. But he has done little to contain that criticism. From the Maps debacle, to the iMac shipping issues, to the public spat with Einhorn, to now facing the possibility that iPhone shipments are a little shaky, if not handled properly, these sorts of PR mud puddles can help sentiment remain negative. And then one finds himself seeing Steve Ballmer's face when he looks in the mirror in the morning. But I suspect the frightening prospect of that nightmare should be enough to get Cook to right the ship ASAP.