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Citing supply chain checks, Jefferies cuts Apple price target to $420 - Page 4

post #121 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

2)  The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p).  High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents.  Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.

 

3)  Not sure I get the point.  

2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)

 

3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .

 

Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).

post #122 of 128
Quote:
The analyst has cut his iPhone estimate for the current quarter from 37.5 million to 35 million. He sees the company reporting revenues of $41 billion, but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.

 

So 75 perent probability that Apple will NOT miss its guidance?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #123 of 128
I think Apple's only problem is an unsustainable profit margin. They command a high premium for their product at the expense of carrier subsidies. Samsung doesn't command as high a profit margin, but with their diversified product portfolio, they can take a blow if their flagship phone is a dud.

Apple is at the mercy of carriers, whether they want to pay $450 subsidy, or $350 like they do with almost everyone else. If the iPhone 5S were to cost $299 with a 2 year contract, people would definitely look at that vs. the S4, or they would even compare it to the Note 2. Hell I think they would go as far as to look at a Nexus 4, $299 NO CONTRACT.

That's the real problem, Apple is riding on the "We're the best and everyone wants our product" gravy train, and people are realizing that strategy won't last forever.
post #124 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrrodriguez View Post

I think Apple's only problem is an unsustainable profit margin. They command a high premium for their product at the expense of carrier subsidies. Samsung doesn't command as high a profit margin, but with their diversified product portfolio, they can take a blow if their flagship phone is a dud.

Apple is at the mercy of carriers, whether they want to pay $450 subsidy, or $350 like they do with almost everyone else. If the iPhone 5S were to cost $299 with a 2 year contract, people would definitely look at that vs. the S4, or they would even compare it to the Note 2. Hell I think they would go as far as to look at a Nexus 4, $299 NO CONTRACT.

That's the real problem, Apple is riding on the "We're the best and everyone wants our product" gravy train, and people are realizing that strategy won't last forever.

The 5 is $200/300 with a 2y contract. It hasn't hurt Apple at all. I also think its the other way around. Apple isn't at the mercy of carriers. Do you think they want to subsidize the iPhone that much? The know people want the iPhone. They are going to offer it or lose subscribers.
post #125 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.


Samsung's sales of the S3 dropped from 18 million in the September quarter down to 15.4 million in the December (Christmas!) quarter.

45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
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45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
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post #126 of 128

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:31pm
post #127 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Who's on top seems to depend on which analyst you ask:

Is Apple iPhone the world's best selling smartphone? Researchers disagree



http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipad-iphone/news/?newsid=3427253

Both can be right. The iPhone 5 outsold every other model with the 4 in 2nd. Combined I'm sure Sammy out shipped Apple with its 50 models. If Sammy actually reported numbers, this could be settled real quick.
post #128 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen View Post

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

 

Without going onto this particular analyst's opinion, I think the risk in what you're saying is that if a stock is not participating when the market is moving up, then it may fall that much more when/if it goes down. Now that would likely be a shorter term concern. And I understand your point about the longer term. But one concern I've read about Apple is that if it becomes a value stock instead of a growth stock, then one might have the opportunity to buy "low" for years... like MSFT.

 

Personally, I think Apple is set to regain its mojo over the next couple of quarters. Assuming its next couple of product releases are successful, I think the market sentiment, which is really what's beating the stock price down, should turn positive again. I don't want it to soar. Just regain its presence in the $550-$600 range.

 

But with that said, I am not at all happy with Cook or how he's handled himself over the past six months or so. My unhappiness is not that he has lost focus. But he has done little to contain that criticism. From the Maps debacle, to the iMac shipping issues, to the public spat with Einhorn, to now facing the possibility that iPhone shipments are a little shaky, if not handled properly, these sorts of PR mud puddles can help sentiment remain negative. And then one finds himself seeing Steve Ballmer's face when he looks in the mirror in the morning. But I suspect the frightening prospect of that nightmare should be enough to get Cook to right the ship ASAP.

If two people always agree, then one of them is redundant.
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If two people always agree, then one of them is redundant.
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