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Citing supply chain checks, Jefferies cuts Apple price target to $420 - Page 2

post #41 of 128
November 8, 2012: "Apple (AAPL) is reiterated a Buy with $900 price target by Jefferies' Peter Misek, who sees the firm's gross margin issues being positively resolved in Q4. "

When it's hot he predicts more hot, when it's cold he predicts more cold. In other words Misek has no clue.

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post #42 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

 

Well, I wouldn't say I'm doing it for free.  I am doing it for negative value as I am losing money daily on the stock fort 6 months now.  Nobody want to answer the question.  When Tim Cook took over, the combined value of Apple/Google/Samsung was $530 billion and Apple was $300 billion of that.  Today the combined value is $690 billion and Apple is $265 billion of the total.  The total imputed value of the three largest mobile players has increased, Apple has shrunk.

 

I can give me my reasons, but let's hear yours Flaneur.  Why is Apple shrinking as competitors grow?

 

You only lose/gain money when you sell. 

 

Hyping the stock in the first place is what pushed it to $700+, which most should have sold then to take profits off the table. Now would be the time to buy as Apple will be rolling out new products and updated products over the coming months which will drive the price, temporarily. 

 

Stocks are not driven by company performance as much as investor manipulation, unless IPOs. That is why the saying "buy on rumor sell on news" came from. Notice how Apple does not build the hype before a product launch, but the investment industry does, so when it comes to fruition, people are already worked up and buy the stock. To which they sell into 'news'. 

 

Then notice that once they hype of a new product dies down with the launch, they are out bashing the product and how Apple is doomed. Again lowering the stock so they can buy it again. 

 

You just have to get on the correct cycle for the stock. If you think Apple has new products in the pipeline, now is the time to buy and then sell into the news to take profit. If you don't think Apple has any new products, or can move current products further out from the competition, then you might want to sell here and buy back one the price is lower. 

 

Personally (which my opinion does not matter at all) I believe Apple has new products in the pipe and will have significant updates to current products this year. 

 

Siri is young and has much to offer yet. The watch will be huge as it is very fashionable with the under 30 crowd. I think Apple will make a final push this year or next to make the iPad family to replace the PC, and anything not an iPad will be in the Macbook family. Bringing all your iDevices together with Siri and iCloud will continue to be the focus.  

 

Most of this is obvious and nothing new, but as a reminder of what is possible. 

post #43 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Yet Samsung will earn nearly as much as Apple this year, forecasted $51 billion EBITDA versus $60 billion for Apple.  Two years ago, they made half as much.  Both strategies can work and are.  Lower volume / higher margin or higher volume / lower margin both work and we are seeing that.  Its the fact that Samsung is growing much more quickly than Apple at this point that have people concerned that Apple's strategy needs a tweak.

The key phrase is "at this point". Both strategies can work, but only to a point.  The latter can only work so far, it's unsustainable in the long run.  It's a race to the bottom.  It's basically like burning books in the fireplace to keep yourself warm, it will last for maybe a few minutes and then it will be cold again.  If one of the biggest selling points to Samsung phones is price then others will start to eat their lunch by offering even cheaper phones.  If Apple holds their ground then they will always come out on top in net earnings over the long run.  Fortunately Tim Cook agrees with this thank goodness!  Imagine if one of these analyst "geniuses" was in charge instead and decided to make 10 billion phones and sell them to make $1 of profit each!  I mean seriously, talk about killing the cash cow here, Apple's strategy has worked beyond the wildest expectations and now people are suggesting they should stop it and do what everyone else is and has been doing of which there are countless examples of failure over the years.  I mean, of course that they would love nothing more than Apple to fail.

post #44 of 128
Everyone is trying to kill the elephant in the room.
post #45 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.  

 

Who says that he is. 

 

Steve took a public dump on the idea of a smaller iPad. Tim released it. 

 

Steve kept his buddy Scott around despite the guy being, it seems, an asshat that hated everyone and took no orders or even feedback from anyone buy Steve. He screwed up big time with the issues in iOS 6 and refused to take the blame and was fired for it as the straw on the camel's back. 

 

Steve for various reasons wasn't big into public charity particularly when it used company money. Tim started the matching program for employee donations. 

 

Steve was a bit sue happy, Tim prefers trying to settle first and sue only when really needed.

 

The COO, not really the CEO, is the guy that ran the company as he was the one dealing with the details. That was Tim, not Steve.

 

So how exactly is Tim trying to run the company like Steve did?

 

If you have an issue with stock value, well. Take your losses and move on to another investment.

post #46 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post


Past is the past.  Market is pricing in future earnings.  Who is growing faster going forward is the issue.  If the stock was based on past performance we wouldn't be having this discussion.  Nobody cares about the past.  All sourced from Bloomberg estimates

Apple 
2013 - $181.8 billion revenue, $60 billion EBITDA, $41.7 billion net income

Samsung
2013 - $204 billion revenue, $52 billion EBITDA, $29 billion net income

Seriously, the $260+ billion drop in value has nothing to do with the past, the market expects the future to get a lot harder for Apple and is questioning if they are up to the challenge.  The answer is nobody know, even those here bashing me.  Unless you are an insider, you know as much as I do about whether they will be able to right the ship and grow earnings again.  If not, the stock is going a lot lower.

1) So you're ignoring the two most recent YoY results and replacing actual data with projected data that you either pulled from your own ass or from one or more analysts like some grotesque Russian nesting doll of made up shit. Brilliant¡

2) Even by Bloomberg estimates Apple is increasing their revenue by a larger value and percentage than Samsung which still makes your original comment BS, even ignoring that these estimates still put Samsung $16 billion less than they made back in 2011. At least try to polish the turd you are presenting.
Edited by SolipsismX - 3/12/13 at 8:50am

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #47 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.

 

Channel sales. How many of those go into and stay in the hands of a consumer. Who knows but it might not be as good as Samsung wants us to think 

post #48 of 128
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post
What have I made up?
Apple is stagnating.  Innovation is lacking.
unfortunately, a 5S won't change
they will miss.
Complete and utter garbage that Cook likes to shove down the throats of people who aren't smart or diligent enough to read the fine print.
The market and I get it that he was lying to us

 

And this is just the stuff that can't be interpreted as an 'opinion'.

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post #49 of 128
No-Brainer: 4-for-1 stock split right here ( stock isnt going any lower), maintain current $8+ dividend, and buy back another significant chunk of shares?

Then, acquire NFLX or Disney, AND acquire an enterprise or startup focused on big-data visualization/analytics since every executive in business wants real time information and AAPL was initially famous for, and the tool of choice for all graphics designers!

Every old school trader has deemed AAPL the modern day RCA. I don't agree, but it's too bad, and puzzling to me why AAPL execs have let the glitter of their stock price turn into a train wreck while the rest of market(s) seem to be flourishing via financial engineering as well.

What's wrong with rewarding investors and keeping them on board via insane profits and distributions? Isn't that the reason both tech & financial gurus supposedly work together?

Wall St. is obviously flocking out of AAPL just as fast as they flocked to it, mostly because one of the smartest guys in the history of the world, SJ, is gone and the money guys don't believe he can be replaced by anyone or group of people.

And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.

But Cook reminds me of Scotty Pippen and Da Bulls without Jordan, they couldn't win a title without MJ, and APPL is tanking without SJ, especially if they miss next quarter, AGAIN!!!

Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles? Why doesn't China Mobile have an iPhone? Why?
post #50 of 128
Originally Posted by TJRSV View Post
And so far Cook & Co. are proving the diissenters right AND creating unnecessary obstacles and challenges to retain their envious and still unchallenged championship title in the world.

 

By… continuing to grow sales and profits. Uh huh.


Why is it that BMW can put out several models AND cater to custmoers and investors, but APPL is immune to such hassles?

 

This question will be answered once you understand why it can't be asked.


 Why doesn't China Mobile have an iPhone?

 

Ask the Chinese.

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post #51 of 128
So, Jefferies just revealed the price HE wants to buy in at, in anticipation of a massive jump later in the year%u2026?

One after another, the "anal-ysts" trot out their dire predictions, bumping the stock up or down for a day, and making out like bandits%u2026

What, two weeks ago that other guy whispering about a stock split, then selling off on the resulting spike? Now this, and an immediate 7-point drop results.

Apple COULD end up in trouble if they keep hammering at the market like this%u2026 "Apple is on the ropes", "they are heading out of style", leaving the potential buyer with uncertainty%u2026 and sales decline.

Creating a self-fulfilling narrative isn't following the market, it's manipulating it%u2026.
post #52 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

 

Channel sales. How many of those go into and stay in the hands of a consumer. Who knows but it might not be as good as Samsung wants us to think 

 

I saw this in the Things Apple Fans Say video...

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #53 of 128
I think it's important to understand that Wall Street makes money when a stock moves; up or down, as long as the stock is moving. %u2014 The Algorithmic trading can make a determination to buy or sell faster than anybody can blink. Therefor, maximum profit is achieved through maximum fluctuations. Enjoy the ride!
post #54 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Earnings last fiscal 2Q = 12.54/share; earnings this year same quarter, likely less than $10.  That is my definition of shrink, an earnings drop of 20%.  Annual earnings at best flat, more likely ~5% below last year.  "Shrink" - when something decreases, like Apple's earnings per share are.

 

OK yes, that's "shrink"… except, you just made all that up. So far, I haven't seen shrink. Have you?

 

Even if Apple "misses its guidance" it still isn't necessarily shrink, because their guidance already far exceeds last year's… they can miss it and still show growth.

 

You are buying into the unsubstantiated narrative of gloom, speaking as if it has already happened or is imminent (and it has been imminent pretty much continuously for the past two years, the largest period of growth for Apple, or any other tech company in history for that matter)...

 

I suppose at some point in the future, Apple will eventually decline. Perhaps there is some inevitability to that, for any company. SO keep trotting out that meme, it will eventually come true.. but I wouldn't base my holding position based on any of it… in my view the company is doing fine. It's the stock manipulations that are doing the most damage...

post #55 of 128

Also take into account that Samsung is growing and creating new phones based off original designs by Apple. They are not creating new design concepts or new product segments like Apple did. So what happens when Samsung runs out of ideas? Can't improve displays, increase core count, or have an OS that stays in the lead? What happens when Samsung reaches the end of being able to copy Apple's innovations? Apple will again have to school everyone on what is next (or is that NeXT lol) 

 

Samsung can't think for itself and therefore will hit the wall. Samsung also relies on other companies to innovate. Such as the OS and the ARM, while Apple not only innovates within these spaces, as well as other hardware, but they tune them to work very efficient together.  

 

Samsung might be sprinting ahead right now, but this is not a short race and Apple has longer legs. 

post #56 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

are these guys ever right?

 

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day (unless it's a 24-hour clock, of course).

post #57 of 128

Samsung isn't creating anything. Samsung sells on hype. Their users show that, benchmarks show that, reason shows that.

 

People keep vomiting that Apple must innovate because others are innovating and catching up so Apple will die. For me, all of the people that say that are absolute delusional.

No OEM is innovating 1/10th of what Apple is doing. 0 innovation, nada. Bigger screen (soon that will end, even if people keep buying those models, screens can't grow forever) and that's it.

 

Why does Apple need innovate to survive? Show evidence. 13 billion and rising isn't enough? What if it was "only" 6 billion? isn't that enough?

 

Then trolls will be saying how fast others are catching up. Meanwhile, what am I seeing? HTC close to death, sony on red, HP on red and thinking about stop selling PCs, Dell going private and on a crisis, Motorola on read, Samsung saturating markets (soon that will end too, markets will saturate), Apple selling more and more and making more and more money.

 

Then, even if someone comes past us on a rocket and puts everyone on the dust, Apple is the only one with 150 billions ready for action, amazing flexible supply chain and they can turn on their xerox printers too!

 

Being a troll can be funny, but being stupid can't.

 

Analysts are the ones that set stock value. Apple can earn 3 times more, but the stock will go nowhere. So what? It's a game for irrational people, Apple has nothing to do with that... They will go private, i hope.

 

Apple is safe, it's the safest company on earth right now, everyone else is on decline, everyone else has no way to do. HP, Dell, toshiba, Sony, HTC, etc have no way to go but down, Google has no way to go up (ads and that's it)... Meanwhile Apple is the most profitable company on earth, growing sales, and with less than 10% on all markets, but growing and the only ones innovating/creating new segments.

 

6 years from iPod to iPhone. 3 to the next step. We are on track.

post #58 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I bet that if Apple simply uses the name iPhone 6 instead of iPhone 5S that would create enough buzz to shut the naysayers up. Rightly or wrongly people perceive the S versions as a slight tweak instead of an entirely new phone. It just doesn't seem to get people as excited as a whole number change. It can still be the exact same phone they are planning to release, just change the name and that will make most people happy. Perception is reality after all.

That is of course assuming that the planned 5S is the only model that they will release later this year. If they were to also release a cheaper version and/or a larger screen version that would create a lot of excitement again in Apple.

Stock prices are rarely about fundamentals or even profits. They are about possibilities and predictions and ultimately about hype and buzz. Even Apple commercials recently seem a bit lacking. To channel Jerry Seinfeld for a minute, what's the deal with those new iPad commercials showing the words with the annoying background music? AT the very least Apple needs to spend some of that horde of cash of a new ad campaign for their iOS and OS X product lines and bring back a bit of the cool factor they seem to have lost in advertising.

I hope Apple has a few surprises in store this year because I just don't think a 4" iPhone 5S and new iPads will stop the stock decline. One bright spot though may be an iPhone for China Mobile, DoCoMo in Japan, T-Mobile, and possibly a few more large carriers overseas.

I agree with the gist of what you are saying. Apple has the problem of not being able to live up to the hype in the long run. Unless they release products that cure cancer or world hunger they are perceived as having failed. Some of this hype they create themselves and some of it is unrealistic expectations based on prior success. 

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post #59 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.

They selling cheap phones to people who would normally by a feature phone and will never use it as a smartphone, and those who will suffer anything to not support Apple. Who else would buy a smartphone that its not even safe to buy apps from the primary store.  

post #60 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by xgman View Post

Apple is stumbling on recent product launches. Nothing lasts forever.

 

And which product launches would you be referring to...?

 

You must mean the iPad mini.

 

I mean, the iPhone 5.

 

I mean, the new iPad.

 

There's just so many stumbles to pick from.

post #61 of 128
post #62 of 128
Apple absolutely has a problem. That is, Tim Cook is a finance guy. Apple's big idea guy, the direction guy, the driver, the marketer, the energy guy is dead. Great products need great salesmen and Cook is simply not that guy. Great ideas don't sell themselves.

They have nobody at this time who can light up a room as soon as they come through the door. That is what they need.

There is no one on Apple's team that is pushing Apple and setting direction. The biggest failure of Apple to date is failure to bring such a person into the organization. There should be no reason that the CEO should be the face or idea man for the company, just because Jobs was.

Scott Forstall might have had some such capability, but, obviously, that positive was far outweighed by his weaknesses.
post #63 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen View Post

I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.

That is why I am doing . I will use my full salary to buy AAPL . Use action to prove I am right .
post #64 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Apple absolutely has a problem. That is, Tim Cook is a finance guy. Apple's big idea guy, the direction guy, the driver, the marketer, the energy guy is dead. Great products need great salesmen and Cook is simply not that guy. Great ideas don't sell themselves.

They have nobody at this time who can light up a room as soon as they come through the door. That is what they need.

There is no one on Apple's team that is pushing Apple and setting direction. The biggest failure of Apple to date is failure to bring such a person into the organization. There should be no reason that the CEO should be the face or idea man for the company, just because Jobs was.

Scott Forstall might have had some such capability, but, obviously, that positive was far outweighed by his weaknesses.
 

Why? because otherwise they will keep making less than 20 billion net profit each quarter and the stock will go down while all others will bleed money or grow 0 but their stock will go up until they close for good(hp, dell, htc, sony, etc see previous post)?

post #65 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Apple absolutely has a problem. That is, Tim Cook is a finance guy. Apple's big idea guy, the direction guy, the driver, the marketer, the energy guy is dead. Great products need great salesmen and Cook is simply not that guy. Great ideas don't sell themselves.

They have nobody at this time who can light up a room as soon as they come through the door. That is what they need.

There is no one on Apple's team that is pushing Apple and setting direction. The biggest failure of Apple to date is failure to bring such a person into the organization. There should be no reason that the CEO should be the face or idea man for the company, just because Jobs was.

Scott Forstall might have had some such capability, but, obviously, that positive was far outweighed by his weaknesses.
 

you forgot Jon Ive...He will design Apple's future

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post #66 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Samsung isn't creating anything. Samsung sells on hype. Their users show that, benchmarks show that, reason shows that.

 

People keep vomiting that Apple must innovate because others are innovating and catching up so Apple will die. For me, all of the people that say that are absolute delusional.

No OEM is innovating 1/10th of what Apple is doing. 0 innovation, nada. Bigger screen (soon that will end, even if people keep buying those models, screens can't grow forever) and that's it.

 

Why does Apple need innovate to survive? Show evidence. 13 billion and rising isn't enough? What if it was "only" 6 billion? isn't that enough?

 

Then trolls will be saying how fast others are catching up. Meanwhile, what am I seeing? HTC close to death, sony on red, HP on red and thinking about stop selling PCs, Dell going private and on a crisis, Motorola on read, Samsung saturating markets (soon that will end too, markets will saturate), Apple selling more and more and making more and more money.

 

Then, even if someone comes past us on a rocket and puts everyone on the dust, Apple is the only one with 150 billions ready for action, amazing flexible supply chain and they can turn on their xerox printers too!

 

Being a troll can be funny, but being stupid can't.

 

Analysts are the ones that set stock value. Apple can earn 3 times more, but the stock will go nowhere. So what? It's a game for irrational people, Apple has nothing to do with that... They will go private, i hope.

 

Apple is safe, it's the safest company on earth right now, everyone else is on decline, everyone else has no way to do. HP, Dell, toshiba, Sony, HTC, etc have no way to go but down, Google has no way to go up (ads and that's it)... Meanwhile Apple is the most profitable company on earth, growing sales, and with less than 10% on all markets, but growing and the only ones innovating/creating new segments.

 

6 years from iPod to iPhone. 3 to the next step. We are on track.

True, but Apple's success was based on hype that was substantive. Jobs hyped Apple's great products, and pushed Apple to create products that he could hype. 

 

Hype is not a negative when there is substance behind it. 

post #67 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post


That is why I am doing . I will use my full salary to buy AAPL . Use action to prove I am right .

What? What are you saying? Don't be stupid!

 

Apple can earn 4x their guidance in the next quarter, but if analysts wants, the stock will tank. Why on earth would you put your money on the hands of analysts (not apple)?

post #68 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

What have I made up?  I express the same concerns directly to the company.  I think the stock is cheap, but though that awhile ago also.

So Apple deserves to be treated differently than every other company in the world by its investors why?  Why should they be allowed to ignore investors when nobody else can.  We are talking about the people that own the company.  Employees/management actually hold very little of their own stock in this company relative to most (recently changed to force them to hold more), but the people who have no vested interest other than their paychecks and stock options should over rule the true owners of the company?  What a bizarre attitude.  Akin to being a restaurant owner who has no say in the business because the chef makes good food.  Doesn't happen in the real world, only in the fantasy land some live in.

Yes, Apple does need, not deserve, to be treated differently from every other company in the world. Unless you see this, you will go on being clueless like the "analysts," thinking that the John Grubers, the Marco Armants, the Horace Dedius and the smart people here are living in a fantasy land.

Apple has always been about tectonic shifts in information technology for the benefit of their users. No other company works this way. They follow Apple and copy and decorate on what Apple has done. This explains their unique secrecy that bothers you so much. It also explains how Apple could drop in valuation in a world-record amount. When people see what Apple is up to the stock goes up to where it should be. When they convince themselves or are manipulated that Apple doesn't know what it's doing (during a quiet period of product releases or during a difficult technology transition), the valuation collapses.

What Apple is doing is epochal. You have to be something of a futurist media ecologist to get it. Would it help if I told you that the stock price is going to go back to $700? Just be patient and study the positives.
post #69 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

True, but Apple's success was based on hype that was substantive. Jobs hyped Apple's great products, and pushed Apple to create products that he could hype. 

 

Hype is not a negative when there is substance behind it.

If you understand a little about technology, you will realize that samsung has nothing of substance. I can tell 5 or 6 phones that are better than the galaxy s3 on every single metric (better phones), especially the iPhone, and Apples beats them on every other product/software.

post #70 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

 As a buyside guy .... Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year.... the stock will react in-kind....Was it over-owned,,,,Do people need to rebalance and sell....  You are fine being overweight a name that is outperforming.

Judged by your swagger and your second-rate jargon, yep, you're (were) an analyst, alright.

 

A completely clueless one at that (although, that is perhaps a bit of redundancy).

post #71 of 128
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post
Great products need great salesmen and Cook is simply not that guy. Great ideas don't sell themselves.

 

Phil.


They have nobody at this time who can light up a room as soon as they come through the door. That is what they need.

 

Jony. Though he hates the limelight. 


There is no one on Apple's team that is pushing Apple and setting direction.

 

Tim, Jony, Bob, and Phil.

 

I would like to see Craig step up his game, but we all know Apple doesn't care about OS X.

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post #72 of 128

the interesting part in the original article on Business Insider is that this analyst is saying Apple iPhone is going the way of the Blackberry and RAZR, that when they fell they fell father than expected.  And Apple is heading the same direction.  Once the lead has been taken, it's impossible to regain it.  The one handset mindset, one form factor, with a screen only big enough for your thumb is the reason Apple is going to lose the smart phone market.  Unless they pull off a miracle with the new phones coming out (if in fact they are coming. who really knows.)

post #73 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Now that's silly.

 

Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.

 

[oh, and by the way... the 2 mentioned... not what you would really call cheap]

If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided.  They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011.  When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of  2012.  Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period.  Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.  

post #74 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I honestly don't get the personal attacks here.  I get it, i'm an outsider, people here are valued based on the number of posts they have (which sadly you see on many forums) and I have few posts.

 

I am still an analyst, don't feel the need to defend myself.  Very easy to attack a profession when you haven't been involved in it or don't know truly what it entails.  Trust me, on the buyside/hf world, you put up or are gone.  You lose money, get below your high water mark and the doors shut.  

 

I won't stoop to your level and call you names.  Its quite boorish, but I hope you feel like a bigger man for doing it.

 

Trying to have an intelligent discussion about what ails the stock, which is disconnected a bit from reality from what is happening at company.  Everyone here just want to say everything is fine and its those mean analysts that are gaming the system, which I find quite funny.

Fair enough.

 

Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:

 

1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?

 

2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?

 

3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?

 

4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?

 

5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?

 

6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?

 

7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?

 

There are just the main initial questions.

 

Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.

post #75 of 128

The SIII sales declined last quarter. Declined so that the year old 4s outsold it and the 5 sold double the SIII's numbers.

post #76 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Then why are Samsung's sales growing.
Because they compete in the low end range of phones and sell on about twice the carriers than Apple.

Last quarter the #1 selling smartphone was the iPhone 5 and the #2 selling smartphone was the iPhone 4.
just waiting to be included in one of Apple's target markets.
Don't get me wrong, I like the flat panel iMac, actually own an iMac, and I like the Mac mini, but...........
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just waiting to be included in one of Apple's target markets.
Don't get me wrong, I like the flat panel iMac, actually own an iMac, and I like the Mac mini, but...........
Reply
post #77 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by genovelle View Post

If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided.  They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011.  When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of  2012.  Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period.  Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.  


You have to read things more carefully.

 

These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.

 

The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.

 

My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]

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post #78 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickag View Post


Because they compete in the low end range of phones and sell on about twice the carriers than Apple.

Last quarter the #1 selling smartphone was the iPhone 5 and the #2 selling smartphone was the iPhone 4.


Which has nothing to do with the original argument.

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post #79 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


You have to read things more carefully.

 

These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.

 

The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.

 

My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]

In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?

 

I don't.

post #80 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?

 

I don't.


... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.

 

So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.

 

As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.

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