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Citing supply chain checks, Jefferies cuts Apple price target to $420 - Page 3

post #81 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.

 

So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.

 

As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.

As are Apple's numbers increasing..... but the breakdown of which portions of the model lioneup are increasing and how that effects the profitshare is what is a criticval element that tends to be overlooked when raw item numbers "marketshare" is all that is stated as if a very inexpensive, low profit or loss leader low end "smartphones" are equivalanet to the flagships.

 

Comparable offerings are more informative IMHO.  The Note II is an overly expensive LTE iPad mini (speaking of rapidly increasing numbers...) as I see it (that voice contract is a problem). but I guess adding in the numers for both (Note II and mini) would be interesting.... The Note II was reportedly around 5 million, the iPad mini 12 million...


Edited by jfc1138 - 3/12/13 at 10:49am
post #82 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.

Tim was in fact asked by Steve to not run the company he did, he was even told to not ask himself 'what would Steve do?'.
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post #83 of 128
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Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Like the iPad mini has done—but you wouldn't know that by reading the "analysts" or commenters like yourself

This just in --- IDC is jumping into the fray with negative news about Apple :

[URL=http://************/2013/03/12/idc-estimates-android-will-pass-apple-for-worldwide-tablet-market-share-in-2013-on-the-back-of-smallercheaper-tablets/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+9To5Mac-MacAllDay+%289+to+5+Mac+-+Apple+Intelligence%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher]IDC estimates Android will pass Apple for worldwide tablet market share in 2013 on the back of smaller/cheaper tablets[/URL]

What I want to know is where are all of these Android tablets and phones??? I see iOS devices at least 4:1 over anything else... and the "anything else" tends to be old feature phones like those from Nokia, which are still popular here in Germany.
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post #84 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Apple absolutely has a problem. That is, Tim Cook is a finance guy.
 

Yes, Tim is a finance guy, but he's also an Operations guy.  VERY important to clarify that.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Apple has always been about tectonic shifts in information technology for the benefit of their users. No other company works this way. They follow Apple and copy and decorate on what Apple has done. This explains their unique secrecy that bothers you so much. It also explains how Apple could drop in valuation in a world-record amount.

Bingo!  So yes, it's a double-edged sword.

My crystal ball says that the "long" edge is sharper...1000+.

post #85 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Fair enough.

 

Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:

 

1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?

 

2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?

 

3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?

 

4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?

 

5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?

 

6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?

 

7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?

 

There are just the main initial questions.

 

Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.

 

 

I see you are throwing out academic terms that don't get used often in the real world, but I can revert back to mba/cfa days and adjust my model to answer these. Give me a day.  Let me know if you have a bloomberg terminal, in addition to the model can build in some neat auto-updating charts to help track relative performance and would be more than willing to somehow share the entire thing.

Really.

 

Which of the terms above are 'academic'?

post #86 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Tim was in fact asked by Steve to not run the company he did, he was even told to not ask himself 'what would Steve do?'.

I was being specific with how he relates / communicates with Wall Street.  That hasn't changed much, but Tim doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, like Steve did.

Sorry about my attack; that was uncalled for.

Steve got the benefit of the doubt? You mean like his RDF, and all that? Would that be an indicator for WS to rate the stock higher with Steve over Tim? I thought WS was giving the stock a value based on the outlook analysts make.
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post #87 of 128

Wow, TS is on the roll on post deletions again.

post #88 of 128

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:32pm
post #89 of 128

THESE IDIOTS COULDN'T PREDICT THEIR WAY OUT OF A PAPER BAG. 

post #90 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Oddly enough, many are right here in these forums, citing the same analysts when their projections favor Apple.

 

In AI-space, the worthiness of an analyst is in direct proportion to the number of rosy things he says about Apple. ;)

What's your goal here?

 

I'm a bit tired about lawsuits/analysts. I only care about products, and that's why I keep coming here, I'm curious, but most times I take "vacation" from sites like these, because they focus more and more on what I don't like.

 

What about you?

 

Just curious.

post #91 of 128

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:32pm
post #92 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Anthropology.

On AI?

post #93 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Do you understand finance?  Shareholders don't get a piece of the revenue, they get a piece of the net income.

You have an MBA yet you think shareholders get a piece of the net income? You might want to ask for your money back from whatever college you attended because shares rise and fall based on a large variety of factors and not some direct, 1:1 relationship between increased profits otherwise Apple's share price would be much higher and Amazon's much lower.
Quote:
Maybe Apple's revenue is growing faster, but because they are selling more lower margin products, the bottom line doesn't grow on a higher revenue.  Really simple stuff.

It is simple stuff and you continually ignore that Apple's profits have increased YoY, that their profits are projected to increase for fiscal 2013, and they far exceeding Samsung in both profits and profit margins which are now claiming is some gold standard despite ignoring it previously.
Quote:
Samsung made US$15.5 billion in net income last year and are forecasted to make US$29.3 billion this year.  Their net income growth of nearly 100% is higher because their margins are expected to be higher as they take a larger share of the high-end, high-margin smartphone business.

And many will buy into those estimates in the hope they are true or at least with the hope that enough lemmings will buy into it so they can make bank. That doesn't make it true and someone who claims to have an MBA should understand a basic concept of how markets can be manipulated without any actually living to their fabricated projections.
Quote:
I'm sorry to inform you the market could care less about the past and while I could give you my own detailed Apple numbers, I don't want to spend the time building  a Samsung model.

Your original comment had nothing to do with the stock price based on projections but instead claimed as fact thing you are merely wanting to come true, but don't take my word for it, let's examine what you wrote…

"While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case."

You're claiming that Apple is getting worse as a company. Now we might have been able to conclude that you were talking only about the stock price (which still wouldn't be accurate) but your next sentence followed up with a comment about about unreleased hardware and the pronoun "they" in regard to Apple needing to change how they conduct business.

You then restate your initial comment about the company getting worse — not the stock — by claiming they have had unsuccessful attempts on launching products, as well as being able to execute the products they do have, which you conclude as being proof that Apple is pathetic, piece of shit of a company that do nothing but falter in the wake of Steve Job's death despite breaking record after record. That about sum it up?


PS: This is the same ol' shit that has been spewing since before Steve Jobs came to Apple and while Steve Jobs was at all, yet they keep winning and everyone wishing for their death keeps failing. Keep it up, you may live long enough to eventually be right.

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post #94 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

On AI?

Anthropology can be studied anywhere there is at least one human being. I have no idea what MacRulez original comment means but I'm certainly up for an anthropological discussion.

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post #95 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

This stock was suppose to be on the way to 1000.00 a share, right now we are closer to 100.00.

They do that. The only thing you can count on is that being a technology company and having excessive mind share will result in bigger swings regardless of how well you are performing, or how wildly more successful you are than your next closest competitor.
Quote:
Everyone right now is waiting for the "next big thing" from Apple and the reality is there is a limit to the next big thing. When looking back at history which is what every investor should do, nearly every tech company has hit the same brick wall. Only history will tell if Apple has hit it's peak, the market is at an all time high and clearly it does not feel that way for anyone that only holds AAPL.

It's an irrational set of expectations people have from Apple and no other company. Regardless of how successful they are they just keep asking "What else?" The Mac in 1984 and then the iPod in 2001. Then 6 years later for the iPhone, and 3 years later for the iPad, and yet people wanted something else right after the iPad was launched.

There was none of this attitude during the iPod's reign and it clearly had a much smaller window as only being a PMP. So why this irrational expectation for Apple to produce a brand new, revolutionary product category seemingly every month or else feel the wrath of analysts and their attached dingleberrists about the incontrovertible and presently occurring death of Apple?

I blame their excessive mindshare which makes any news about Apple better than substantial news about other companies, and negative news about Apple's demise even better for eyeballs.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #96 of 128
Sell your Apple shares and fu*k off.
post #97 of 128

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:32pm
post #98 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post

 

They're not getting worse, but I'd dare say they've been moving slow and competitors are catching up quickly.  I hope they're spending some of that cash hoard on a blockbuster iOS 7.  Apple has plenty of money and market share no matter what they do, but as an investor I hope they do something big this year.

 

Nope. They spent miserable percentage on R&D. Apple was always greedy, this is Jobs legacy. There is nothing up the sleeve. THis talks about supply chain is side show, actually.

 

Problem is, that they should take out from the sleeve larger screen a year ago, they will take it 2014, when nobody will care any more. They have no iTV, especially not with bad SIri interface, iWatch is a funny little thing that means nothing and there is no next big thing. Believe me. If Apple stays at 5 P/E, it will be a big success. 

post #99 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Oddly enough, many are right here in these forums, citing the same analysts when their projections favor Apple.

 

In AI-space, the worthiness of an analyst is in direct proportion to the number of rosy things he says about Apple. ;)

I hate blatant stock manipilation be it this way or that way.

But true enogh positive manipulation does in fact enrage me a bit less.


Edited by Rabbit_Coach - 3/12/13 at 12:22pm
post #100 of 128

I think the weather is going to be horrible tomorrow. I see trolls flying very low recently.

1wink.gif

post #101 of 128
Originally Posted by poksi View Post
Nope. They spent miserable percentage on R&D.

 

Your implication being that "percentage" means anything whatsoever.


Apple was always greedy, this is Jobs legacy.

 

Your implication being that this is the truth.


There is nothing up the sleeve. …they will take it 2014… … and there is no next big thing.


Your implication being that you know anything about the internals of the company.


They have no iTV, especially not with bad Siri interface…

 

Your implication being that Siri is bad.


…iWatch is a funny little thing that means nothing…

 

Your implication being that you know anything at all about whatever product this is or is not.

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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Originally Posted by helia

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post #102 of 128
I bought AAPL in the $500s and I will fully admit that it was a mistake. The board is hostile to investors. They simply believe that investors and investor sentiment does not matter at all. And with that attitude, the stock will go nowhere. Sure, Apple is immensely profitable. But as an investor, you will not see a dime of that success. It's almost as though being a publicly traded company is a massive inconvenience for them. I certainly wouldn't recommend the stock to anyone. Even at $420. I have simply decided to ignore my AAPL position. I'll dump it when it reaches breakeven someday....
post #103 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

I think the weather is going to be horrible tomorrow. I see trolls flying very low recently.
1wink.gif

I do wonder if there is something that can be accurately derived by such testing. I do think that when there is a new Apple product release that the more rebolutionary it is the more trollish comments from new posters we get on the forums.

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post #104 of 128

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/21/13 at 4:32pm
post #105 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Apple:

2011 — $108 billion revenue and $26 billion in net income (24% net profit margin)
2012 — $156.53 billion and $41 billion in net income (26.2% net profit margin)

A growth of 69% in revenue and 63% in profits YoY.

Samsung:

2011 — $220.1 billon revenue and $21.2 billion in net income (9.6% net profit margin)
2012 — $183.6 billon revenue and $26.5 billion in operating income (cant find net profit and unwilling to hunt down each quarter and do the currency conversion)

That's looks like a substantial YoY drop in revenue and only a fraction of Apple's net profits and profit margin. Nice try but you won't get away with that shit on this forum.

Where from do you have those Samsung numbers? They are completely wrong.

And you don't need to do currency conversion as Samsung is providing their numbers also in $.

 

The numbers for Samsung Electronics are (CY = FY)

2010 - $136.28 B revenue and $15.60 B net income

2011 - $144.98 B revenue and $13.15 B net income

2012 - $187.26 B revenue and $23.45 B net income

 

The numbers for Apple are (Calendar Years!)

2010 - $  76.28 B revenue and $16.63 B net income

2011 - $127.84 B revenue and $32.98 B net income

2012 - $164.65 B revenue and $41.73 B net income

 

Samsung had a mediocre 2011 and an excellent 2012.

Apple had a fantastic 2011 and I really don't see why people think Apple had a bad 2012! 

post #106 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I just meant very few sellside equity pieces discuss terminal value, constant growth model.  That's classic b-school stuff but you don't see it much in equity analysis, but rather just a 3-4 yr forecast and multiple approach.  I'm primarily a credit guy, but also do equities, cap structure arb, vol trading, etc.  I focus on cash flow much more than the income statement approach equity analysts take.  I would note cash flow margin (FFO/revenue) hasn't taken the hit gross margin has recently due to scale on the top line - meaning r&d and sg&a as % sales has decreased), but that offset will stall out without revenue growth. 

Cash flow based is even better. I await your answers. (I am surprised you now say you need time, since you bragged earlier that you had a 'model'. Why don't you just share it with us?).

Until then, stop pontificating on Apple stock. Or stick to credit analysis, not equity analysis.
post #107 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

But as an investor, you will not see a dime of that success.

Instead of a dime you see $10.60 per share p.a.

post #108 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by geekdad View Post

you forgot Jon Ive...He will design Apple's future

I didn't forget Jon Ive. I had hopes for him but he hasn't appeared as spokesman -- and I was expecting him to when he was promoted to upper management. And the few times I've watched him speak, he is the quiet, thoughtful guy, perhaps charming, but decidedly not a salesman. 

 

Now, at upper management, they still have to bring in a retail guy. Can they bring somebody in to run retail and ooze enthusiasm, joy, excitement, knows retail, sees the market as it can be?

post #109 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Those aren't lies.  The lack of innovation is routinely discussed, so I was discussing perception.  Of course I think they are innovating.  Whether that innovation leads to a commercial product that can move the needle for a $40+ billion bottom line company remains to be seen.

 

I guess it depends what the 5S has.  Lets hope the fingerprint and NFC rumors are true.  Roll out same phone with a new camera and it will get ugly.

 

I don't think i said they will miss, but maybe I did.  They have missed 3 of the last 4 quarters so not exactly a stretch to assume it happens again.

 

Tim knows the buyback is a mirage and not particularly beneficial to shareholders as it simply offsets dilution, so why say we are returning $45 billion?  Shareholders will get the divvies in that number, they get none of the buyback, its smoke and mirrors.

 

Are you naive enough to believe Tim when he insinuated they aren't going to come out with a large screen phone.  C'mon!  Of course they will

They have never missed a quarter. They have missed the analyst's estimates, not their own guidances.

post #110 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 I personally am not a fan of Tim Cook and think he is delusional if he thinks he can run the company the same way Steve did.  

 

You realize that Apple's phenomenal margins and supply chain management for the past 15 years is all a result of Cook's hard work at Apple? You should be praising him for any gains on your stock. You're delusional if you think Jobs rebuilt Apple all by himself. 

post #111 of 128

Jefferies can go **** itself. Does it have any evidence of all these claims? Of course not. All they need to do is pull random shit out of their asses with "supply chain checks" in order to denigrate Apple. 

post #112 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Jefferies can go **** itself. Does it have any evidence of all these claims? Of course not. All they need to do is pull random shit out of their asses with "supply chain checks" in order to denigrate 

What really makes me almost vomit is that by next week Jefferies and Co. will have made hundreds of thousends of $ just by spreading completely unsupported BS.

post #113 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

You obviously have one, I assume that will be shared as a quid pro quo.

Listen, you're the one that bragged in your prior post, the one that I responded to first ('bragging' is what I call this) ➡: "Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year,...... blah blah."

 

All I am doing is calling you out on it. I have to assume that you're obviously b-s'ing unless you could tell us what the 'model' is.

 

------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

As if there is a difference between credit and equity analysis at the end of the day.  Fact that you think so is quite funny.

------

 

The fact that you don't know the difference between the two tells me all I need to know!

 

 

PS: I see that you've picked up MacRulez as an admirer! In these parts, that's not a compliment...... lol.gif

post #114 of 128

Need waders for this thread. 

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post #115 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.

 

I have to laugh at the responses.  Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site.  Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit.  iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference.  If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).

 

With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price.  The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase.  However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad.  I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance.  When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.

 

So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release.  If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.

 

Okay start throwing stones now.

post #116 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I clarified that statement to mean he can't deal with Wall Street the way SJ did.  A fair retort otherwise.

 

And how exactly did Jobs "deal" with Wallstreet? He didn't. He completely ignored them. Cook is much, much friendlier to them. And look how they've rewarded him. It;s easy to blame the stock fall on the CEO or on specific decisions. But sometimes it's not that simple, and the answer is much more complex, and sometimes malicious.

 

Apple's performance lately has been phenomenal, continually breaking their previous records. Historically stock should reflect performance, but in Apple's case it does not. Most of the negative stories around Apple lately have been completely bullshit, and make statements that are either disingenuous or factually untrue. Some WANT the stock to tank, and it seems there's been a concerted effort by Wall Street and the media to get it to do so. There's nothing I've seen in Apple's fundamentals that warrants this drop. They're in a better position now than they were a year ago. Sales haven't been higher. Corporate, enterprise, and Education adoption is through the roof. They've addressed the smaller tablet market, and have completely dominated it, quelling those fears of cheaper tablets eating into Apple's share. The surface is pretty much a bomb. None of the fear-mongering that was going on came true, they're in the best position anyone can be with their control of the hardware, software, appstore, and entire ecosystem. Apple RIGHT NOW, ignoring the stock, is in the best shape it's EVER been, easily. 


Edited by Slurpy - 3/12/13 at 5:53pm
post #117 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

I have to laugh at the responses.  Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site.  Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit.  iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference.  If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).

With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price.  The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase.  However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad.  I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance.  When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.

So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release.  If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.

Okay start throwing stones now.

The 5 outsold the 4. It's embarrassing for Sammy that a two y.o. Iphone outsold its flagship.
post #118 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I bet that if Apple simply uses the name iPhone 6 instead of iPhone 5S that would create enough buzz to shut the naysayers up. Rightly or wrongly people perceive the S versions as a slight tweak instead of an entirely new phone. It just doesn't seem to get people as excited as a whole number change. It can still be the exact same phone they are planning to release, just change the name and that will make most people happy. Perception is reality after all.

 

No, sales are reality and the 3GS and 4S sold like crazy — above and beyond their prior incarnations. 

post #119 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Send me your email, i'll send you what I have, its not very complex or prettied up at moment is all, I was going to spend some time building it out.  I asked for a day to do so, but you would rather not wait.  That is fine. 

 

Right, so guys like me that have work with converts or put on bond vs equity trades, vol vs credit, options vs credit and thus have exposure to credit and equity..... you think there are two analysts one that focuses on equity and the other credit?  The fact that you are implying that would have to be the case tells me all I need to know about you.  Tell me how you buy a convert, short the stock against it (or vice versa) on a neutral hedge and don't care if the stock goes up or down and can still make a ton of money.  How does that work?  Tell me what you know about merton or kmv models that show credit is nothing more than a derivative of equity volatility (what I meant by vol, which I'm sure you didn't know).  Tell me the correlation between the VIX and high yield credit spreads.  Tell me the correlation between a single company option vol and its credit default swaps or credit spreads.  All these model and correlations exist based on the theory and historical relationships that show equity value is nothing more than a long-term option on the underlying value of a company's assets with a strike price of the company's debt.

 

But sure, big difference between being a credit and equity analyst.  Other than knowing how to read and indenture and credit agreement, no difference between analyzing company fundamentals.  None.  

 

Go ahead an google what I'm explaining  and respond so you can pretend you have any idea what I just said. 

1) I can wait a couple of days. No problem. I don't need to send you my email: you can PM me within AI.

 

2) Your para 2 just reaffirms what I said earlier: you've got your jargon down. (I would be, however, intrigued to see the empirical evidence on the correlation between VIX and high yield credit spreads; I always thought that was silly trader lore, but I'd love to see a solid academic study on the topic).

 

3) Regarding credit analysis versus equity analysis: Where and when (and increasingly, I am wondering, why) did you do an MBA!? Just look up Chapter 1 of any basic Finance or Accounting textbook. Actually, let me help help you -- this once (since I found it easily)! Here's Chapter 1 of a well-known Accounting textbook, where you might want to look at pp. 8-9: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0073379433/597452/Subramanyam_fsa_sample_Ch01.pdf

post #120 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it 

???
So nothing is going to change until it changes?

Brilliant!

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