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IDC projects Android tablets will pass Apple's iPad this year, sees little good news for Microsoft

post #1 of 62
Thread Starter 
The year 2013 will be the one in which shipments of tablets running Google's Android operating system will pass those of Apple's iPad, according to a new analysis out from IDC.

androidtab


IDC's newest report sees smaller, lower-priced Android devices accounting for 48.8 percent of total tablet shipments for 2013, while Apple's iPad will slip from a 51 percent share in 2012 to 46 percent.

Tablets running Microsoft's Windows 8 and Windows RT operating systems are expected to account for 2.8 and 1.9 percent of 2013 shipments, respectively.

The report also forecasts tablet market share for 2017, revealing somewhat positive news for Microsoft. By 2017, Windows 8 tablets may achieve a 7.4 percent share, while Windows RT tablets should hold 2.7 percent of the market. This share would come at the expense of both Android and iOS tablets, dropping them to 46 and 43.5 percent shares, respectively.

charty


While Windows RT's share is projected to grow, the report is less than kind on the operating system's overall outlook.

"Long term," says IDC Research Director Tom Mainelli, "we think Microsoft and its partners would be better served by focusing their attention on improving Windows 8."

Notably, the analysis does not break out Amazon's Kindle Fire line of tablets from the larger Android set. The Kindle Fire line, running a forked version of Android, does not rely on Google services and thus is usually listed in a separate category from devices from Asus, Samsung, and other Android manufacturers.



This latest IDC report shows the continuation of a trend that has seen the tablet market growing more crowded with time. The report, though, focuses on tablet shipments, which are not necessarily equal to tablet sales. It is difficult to calculate how many tablet devices are in the hands of consumers, as Apple remains the only manufacturer to regularly report its tablet sales.

Other analyses that approach the issue from a usage standpoint show Apple with a commanding lead, despite the growing number of Android tablet shipments. Most recently, Chitika Insights saw Apple's iPad devices accounting for 80 percent of tablet web traffic, with no other devices holding a double-digit share.

Chitika's analysis drew on impressions from more than 250,000 websites, but the firm left open the possibility that Android tablet buyers are using their tablets differently from iOS users.
post #2 of 62
Given Android tablet web usage has not only stalled but started a rapid decent in the last 6 weeks, I find it optimistic Android tablets will be at anything better than 25% market share for 2013. Android tablets look to have been used as cheap Christmas gifts and now their recipients are exiling them to the Island of Misfit Toys.
post #3 of 62

Yeah, so…

 

Why are we trusting an organization that thinks it can project what will happen in the technology industry in 2017, again? Why are they allowed to say these things at all?

 

No, seriously. Seriously. Why. Each of us needs to e-mail these morons and ask that. Why do they think they have any idea what will happen in 2017. 

 

Imagine that instead of 2013, the first column is for 2010 and that this image was posted a few days after the first iPad's announcement. And then they're projecting out for 2014 that Apple will have 10% of the market or whatever. 


It doesn't matter what they're actually projecting; that they think anything four years from now can be determined using the state of the industry today is laughable to the extreme. 

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post #4 of 62
Yes, it will "surpass" the iPad. Meanwhile iPad sales will continue to grow, iPad revenues and profits will continue to grow, and it will remain the dominant tablet in terms of app usage and sales, web usage, video usage, etc. Android is like a phantom. What the hell do people do with their Android devices?
post #5 of 62

Didn't IDC said the same thing since 2011 and 2012, with a few differences:

 

- The iPad share would be even lower,

- Windows share would be higher.

 

Poor trolls.

 

Frankly, i don't care if apple sells 1 million or 1 trillion devices as long as they are healthy. The only thing I care is about good products from them, and OSX deserves an update.

post #6 of 62

I'll believe it when i see it...........

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post #7 of 62

The BEST EVER JOKE! Ha hhha hhhhaaaaaa hha hahhha hhhhaaaa

post #8 of 62
This is like the 3rd year in a row we've seen these studies.
post #9 of 62
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The report also forecasts tablet market share for 2017, revealing somewhat positive news for Microsoft. By 2017, Windows 8 tablets may achieve a 7.4 percent share, while Windows RT tablets should hold 2.7 percent of the market.

 

I'm pretty sure that's exactly how Microsoft wants it.  Single-digit share.

 

And why does Microsoft want low Surface sales volumes?  Because software pricing for Surface is lower than for legacy PCs.  For apps as well as the OS itself.  And that means that Microsoft is screwed either way. Either Surface takes off and cannibalizes the higher-margin legacy PC software market, or Surface just plods along in the "other" slice of the post-PC pie and iPad cannibalizes the higher-margin legacy PC software market.  Either way, Microsoft loses software revenue, their bread-and-butter "core competency."  Therefore, the middle path is the best path.  Sell Surface in mediocre numbers.  Split the difference.  Gradually amortize the development cost.

 

And why would Microsoft want to keep on shipping Surface despite low volumes and profits?  To maintain the image of being a 21st-century company.  To make it look like they actually care about the post-PC era at all.  To go through the motions of being modern while being trapped by their legacy desktop Windows + Office + enterprise software businesses.  Where "enterprise" is a euphemism for "technologically frozen in time."  All to keep themselves in the news somehow, anyhow.  Because Windows 8 certainly isn't doing it for them.

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post #10 of 62

One point, due to the complete de-googling that Amazon does to their Kindle Fire tablets, wouldn't simply classifying Kindle Fire tablets simply as Android tablets be a bit like classifying Mac OS X as UNIX when compiling PC OS statistics?

 

I mean, technically it's correct, but it doesn't really tell the whole story.

post #11 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Didn't IDC said the same thing since 2011 and 2012, with a few differences:

 

- The iPad share would be even lower,

- Windows share would be higher.

 

Poor trolls.

 

Frankly, i don't care if apple sells 1 million or 1 trillion devices as long as they are healthy. The only thing I care is about good products from them, and OSX deserves an update.

Interesting...

 

https://www.pcworld.com/article/196776/article.html

http://news.yahoo.com/idc-ups-tablet-estimates-expects-shipments-reach-222-212010993.html

http://www.datamation.com/mobile-wireless/idc-tablet-shipments-to-reach-282m-by-2016.html

http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/09/19/idc-raises-2012-tablet-forecast-10-record-consumer-demand-117-1m-units-ipad-59-9/

 

IDC has no idea what is going on and they just make up numbers to create buzz.

post #12 of 62

Exactly shipped....not sold and not used....Android needs to claims it's the no1 operating system or it will suffer...there is not way Apple's sales will be lower then android's for tablets....also 2017...lol....hahahaha...can they reads palms as well.

post #13 of 62

True, but that doesn't stop Wall Street from believing the nonsense - and killing the stock (again).

IDC apparently follows Lewis Carroll: "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
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post #14 of 62
While I love Apple and have been a big fan since the NeXT days, I can't see people continuing to pay the premium for Apple products. Recently we decided to purchase Kindle Fires HD 7" for our kids, $199.00 per device vs iPad Mini $329.00. Higher res and lots of money left over for books and whatever apps they want. Most of the really cool free stuff Subway Surfers, Temple Run 2 are in the Amazon App Store. They play great on the Kindle Fire HD's, the screen is excellent. Buying a single copy of MineCraft was synced to both devices. Parental controls excellent, including Amazon FreeTime which allows you to set App, Book or Web limits.

Having some type of ecosystem that surrounds the hardware I think is critical, so we stayed away from non-Amazon hardware, ie Samsung, etc
We are pretty much a Mac home, iMac 27, MBA, Apple TV, iPhone 4&5, ipad 2, iPod 4th gen, again, absolutely love Apple products, they "get" the user experience and have the interface and ecosystem that everybody is trying to copy. As it stands today there are very good and less expensive facsimiles out there.

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post #15 of 62
Wait, wait, wait..... people actually buy Android tablets??
post #16 of 62

Android tablets being used differently than iPads?  How?  My thoughts are they aren't using them long after they buy them because there really isn't much you do with one.  Maybe play some free games.

post #17 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Didn't IDC said the same thing since 2011 and 2012, with a few differences:

 

- The iPad share would be even lower,

- Windows share would be higher.

 

Poor trolls.

 

Frankly, i don't care if apple sells 1 million or 1 trillion devices as long as they are healthy. The only thing I care is about good products from them, and OSX deserves an update.

OS X is getting another upgrade later this year.  10.9 will be shown at WWDC, which is a few months away.

post #18 of 62

Question, who's going to make these Android tablets?  I thought many or most of the Android tablet makers were doing pretty poorly with regards to tablet sales, with the exception of Amazon, maybe.  Who knows because they don't report numbers.

 

Are they relying on Samsung for this?  HTC?  Asus?  Another savior?  Who? Or are they counting phablets in those numbers?

 

MSFT at 7.4%.  Not likely with the reports we've seen out of W8. 

post #19 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Wait, wait, wait..... people actually buy Android tablets??

 

dont know. but that's not what they are saying anyway. They said shipments. Not sales. For all we know, the android numbers are higher because Apple doesn't count stock going into their direct channels (ie stores and online site) as shipments. And indirect sales channels are less than half their business. So by nature the number would be lower. 

 

and then add in that a shipped unit doesn't equal a sold one and the numbers are questionable

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post #20 of 62

I feel real sorry for all of the people stuck with a miserable Android tablet. Can you imagine all of the unhappy and crying kids who got some cheap Android tablet for Christmas? lol.gif All of their friends had iPads or iPod Touches or iPhones and the kids were literally down on their knees begging their parents for the same. I would never treat any kids of mine that poorly. Child abuse comes in many forms, not just physical abuse.

 

Android's numbers have always been hyped and misrepresented since the beginning of time. You can't trust any Android numbers at all. We've seen how the game has played out these last few years. 

 

Here's yet again, another study, where projections are being made, and it's totally useless and meaningless. Anybody can pull random numbers out of their ass. And if Android sales are going so great, why is it that every manufacturer is scared shitless, and refuses to actually report how many that they have sold? Most people weren't born yesterday, and only a naive fool could possibly believe that Android is a prosperous platform.

 

One little piece of good news recently is that at least when I am taking my next flight, the probability of a Fandroid sitting next to me is extremely low, since it is now known that Fandroids are allergic to high altitudes and it is also known that they're also allergic to opening up their wallets, though that last bit has been known for quite some time now.

 

I also read that Google laid off 1,200 workers (motorola mobility), yep, Google/Android is going great. I expect the stock to jump up at least 5% based on this news.

post #21 of 62
eReader for a lot of Amazon tablet.
post #22 of 62
If high-end, high-quality Android tablets were outselling the iPad then I would be concerned. But they're not and they won't. I don't care if a bunch of no-name manufacturers sell millions of awful, cheap, lame, useless Android tablets. Nobody does.
post #23 of 62

The numbers I want to see are not just shipments. I want to see:

 

• Shipments (which includes unsold units)

 

• Actual sales

 

• Customer returns

 

• Units destroyed or given out to employees to get rid of them

 

• Units sold at a loss to get rid of them

 

For Apple, the first two numbers are virtually identical, often supply-constrained, and the last three are negligible.

 

And of course:

 

• Of the units that people really do buy AND keep, how much are they actually used, and how satisfied are the users?

 

• What's the breakdown of device quality/usability/value vs. disposable or highly limited "tablets" in name only?

 

• Profitability.

 

For all of the above numbers, I want:

 

• Real facts and data, or good solid detective work, or an admission that we just don't know.

 

Not numbers/predictions pulled out analysts' digestive anatomy.

 

Not stock-market manipulation.

 

Not platform-fan pipe dreams.

 

Not people unable to understand post-1990s Apple, the current market, or the buying public.

post #24 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Wait, wait, wait..... people actually buy Android tablets??

there were some people that bought Kindle Fire tablets. but by now I believe, that market is saturated.

So.... hmmmm?

 

But anal ysts must be trusted! Yes?

post #25 of 62
So does anyone have any info on how accurate IDC has been in the past when talking about Apple? Anybody?
post #26 of 62
shipped is the only way there could be some parity... would love some sales figures.
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post #27 of 62
Can someone remind how IDC predicted the PMP and handset market would go 2 years after the iPod and iPhone, respectively, were introduced?

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post #28 of 62

Doorstops?

post #29 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

So does anyone have any info on how accurate IDC has been in the past when talking about Apple? Anybody?

 

In one of the links above, IDC said in May 2010, that the tablet market might be as big as 44 million in 2014. 

 

Considering that Apple sold more than that in 2012, I'd say IDC shouldn't try to predict anything more than 12 months away.  

 

I've never seen an Android tablet outside of a store except 1 Kindle Fire that my friend received as a "sales prize" from her employer. 1st place sales team got free iPads and 2nd place sales team got Kindle Fires, 1st generation. 

 

Granted, I'm not in college, so maybe students are the majority of people buying Android tablets?

post #30 of 62
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

[snipped] Why do they think they have any idea what will happen in 2017. 

 

 

They probably know what they'll be drinking in the bar after work... which is as far as they think, rationally!

post #31 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by bailorg View Post

One point, due to the complete de-googling that Amazon does to their Kindle Fire tablets, wouldn't simply classifying Kindle Fire tablets simply as Android tablets be a bit like classifying Mac OS X as UNIX when compiling PC OS statistics?

 

I mean, technically it's correct, but it doesn't really tell the whole story.

 

Technically, and practically, it's incorrect. Android is a brand indicating that a device uses Google's ecosystem. The Kindle Fire is not an Android branded tablet and doesn't use the Google ecosystem, and it isn't meaningful in any way to count them together.

post #32 of 62
We bought a Galaxy Tab because we needed to be able to talk to the poor soles who use our software

All I can say it OMG what a load of old crap. iPad mini is about 10 years ahead
post #33 of 62

It is logical that Apple commands the tablet market. They have the best quality, good price, by the far best price/performance ratio, best-of-breed software, different versions in terms of memory and cellular connection and most important: 2 needed sizes. Apple could learn something from themselves...

 

Buying Android tablet can mean on 2 basic problems: total ignorance or hating Apple.

post #34 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by mudman2 View Post

We bought a Galaxy Tab because we needed to be able to talk to the poor soles who use our software

All I can say it OMG what a load of old crap. iPad mini is about 10 years ahead

 

I agree. Yet, my colleague at work say's the same about iPad. States no reason. Simply hates Apple. Probably frustrated as a child. Still is.

post #35 of 62
Originally Posted by poksi View Post
…2 needed sizes.

 

Citation needed.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #36 of 62
Anal extrapolation much?
I.e. full of shit
Android outselling the iPad ? I don't think so.
post #37 of 62
Originally Posted by hfts View Post
Anal extrapolation…

 

Huh. Haven't heard that one before.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #38 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacVicta View Post

Yes, it will "surpass" the iPad. Meanwhile iPad sales will continue to grow, iPad revenues and profits will continue to grow, and it will remain the dominant tablet in terms of app usage and sales, web usage, video usage, etc. Android is like a phantom. What the hell do people do with their Android devices?

They save them for early Spring garage sales. 

 

"We'll throw in the tablet if you take the box of used underwear for a dollar."

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post #39 of 62
I remember when people laughed at the idea of Android phone out selling iPhones. The current breed of Android tablets are just as good as the iPad. The software is lacking but that is rapidly changing. The IDC may have there dates wrong but it's inevitable.

However in the end why should you care does it make your tablet less enjoyable?
post #40 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spacepower View Post

 

Granted, I'm not in college, so maybe students are the majority of people buying Android tablets?

 

Ummm.... college students are smart enough to carry an iPad. In addition, the iPad has One Note available on it.

 

A few college students carry Surface RT tablets so they can throw them around like frisbies and practice clicking and clacking them in unison.

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