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Apple predicted to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013

post #1 of 40
Thread Starter 
Reiterating the lack of excitement surrounding Samsung's "Broadway-style" launch of the Galaxy S 4, Yankee Group research has stated Apple is likely to gain ownership share in U.S. smartphones this year, "rather than the other way around."

Yankee Group Carl Howe Samsung Apple


"While Samsung updated the internals and the software, the S IV is just another iteration on the Galaxy design to be slightly bigger, faster and with a few new apps," noted the firm's VP of Research Carl Howe.

"We fully expect the Galaxy S IV to be an excellent flagship phone for Samsung, but Yankee Group doesn?t see the S IV allowing Samsung to gain ground against Apple in the crucial U.S. market."

Howe's firm plotted various manufacturers' smartphone ownership share against consumers' reported intent to buy in future purchases, creating a graph (above) that depicts Apple leading in both categories, and the only smartphone manufacturer within "gaining share" territory.

Based on data collected in the Yankee Group?s March 2013 US Consumer Survey, "only about 15 percent of consumers intend to buy a Samsung phone within the next six months, while 40 percent intend to buy Apple iPhones within that period," the firm reported.

"That?s actually a slight decline from the December quarter. Further, Samsung isn?t generating the same kind of brand loyalty that Apple owners have; in that same survey, only 61 percent of Samsung owners intend to buy another Samsung as their next smartphone; that contrasts dramatically with 85 percent of Apple iPhone owners intending to buy another iPhone," Howe wrote.

"Unless Samsung works very hard to change consumers? minds in the next six months, we actually see Apple gaining ownership share on Samsung in the U.S. in 2013 rather than the other way around."

Howe has previously noted Apple's overwhelming lead as the most favored brand among tablet buyers, with the iPad having nearly seven times the interest of its nearest competitor, Amazon's Kindle-branded devices.
post #2 of 40

I don't see apple gaining on Samsung. Nokia and HTC I see as being possible but not Samsung 

post #3 of 40

"Apple predicted to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013"

Yeah, thanks for the innovative S4, Samsung!

 

post #4 of 40

Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).

 

Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.

post #5 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).

Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.

Do you really think that a great many people saw that?
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #6 of 40
Like all rumours predicting the future take it with a grain of salt but I can see Apple gaining in both profit share and unit market share in the US smartphone market.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #7 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Do you really think that a great many people saw that?

Those that didn't heard about it.  Unless of course they live in a cave.  

post #8 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Do you really think that a great many people saw that?

 

Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.

 

Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.

 

So the word got out there. 

post #9 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.

Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.

So the word got out there. 

I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #10 of 40
This is a buffer/stop gap for analysts when the numbers come in and they can cite this as them being ahead of the curve: Apple is going to expand over all the competition and they've already gotten channel numbers to make this a trend.
post #11 of 40
Of course, most people will complain that the '5S' isn't a game changer, too. At least if the release of the 4S and 3GS is any indication. People will bitch that the thing isn't redesigned (assuming history holds true on the way Apple does things).

Naturally, the 5S will completely blow away sales records, new iPhones always do, and Apple may very well steal some high-end market share away from Samsung. But I think that people taking glee in Samsung's missteps here are going to find the same stuff happening to Apple when the 5S comes out.

We shall see...
post #12 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.

I agree with you in principle. But ... If I were to look at the Samsung Galaxy line on its own merits (and forget whether and how much they copied Apple), they have done a good job. The Galaxy S is a good phone (have used it, programmed on it, etc.). It does not compare to the iPhone in spit and polish, but it is not a cheap phone. And there are advantages to the larger screen, even if the colors are not as good. More importantly, the Galaxy family offers options (an understatement). And they have marketed the hell out of the line. So really, to me, their sales numbers are not a surprise. There was/is a strong appetite to buying something different than what Apple offers and Samsung managed to make itself the top alternative. So they were poised to grow even more. But their marketing department dumped a turd. While it might not change the minds of those who already felt one way or the other about Samsung, there are many who are still undecided. A show like that will not sway them toward the S4.

 

I am not shedding a tear for them. I am just surprised a company that has executed so well so far would stumble so hard at a critical moment.

post #13 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by rhyde View Post

Of course, most people will complain that the '5S' isn't a game changer, too. At least if the release of the 4S and 3GS is any indication. People will bitch that the thing isn't redesigned (assuming history holds true on the way Apple does things).
 

 

It will be hard for any phone to be a game changer now, unless it is no longer a phone.

post #14 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

I agree with you in principle. But ... If I were to look at the Samsung Galaxy line on its own merits (and forget whether and how much they copied Apple), they have done a good job. The Galaxy S is a good phone (have used it, programmed on it, etc.). It does not compare to the iPhone in spit and polish, but it is not a cheap phone. And there are advantages to the larger screen, even if the colors are not as good. More importantly, the Galaxy family offers options (an understatement). And they have marketed the hell out of the line. So really, to me, their sales numbers are not a surprise. There was/is a strong appetite to buying something different than what Apple offers and Samsung managed to make itself the top alternative. So they were poised to grow even more. But their marketing department dumped a turd. While it might not change the minds of those who already felt one way or the other about Samsung, there are many who are still undecided. A show like that will not sway them toward the S4.

I am not shedding a tear for them. I am just surprised a company that has executed so well so far would stumble so hard at a critical moment.

1) I agree with your comments about what Samsung has achieved but I see no connection to their event that will sway people toward or away from their products.

2) My prediction is that Apple will take more ground from the smartphone market, andSamsung will take even more ground from the Android-based smartphone market.

3) If you want to see a full report that includes up to three more words just send me $499 to get the full analysis as a zipped PDF.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #15 of 40

2012 some people rushed to buy Galaxy S3 because it has a bigger screen than iPhone.  But I believe many later found out it is too big.  The S3 is 4.8".  Because it is more fragile than iPhone the S3 owners are forced to buy cases to protect it.  With a case the S3 is simply too big.  After they found out the trueth, will they upgrade to the even larger S4? 

post #16 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.

 

Samsung's flop event is important because it erases the notion that "Samsung is the new Apple," an idea that a variety of Apple's critics had reason to spread.

 

It's as important as Microsoft's back to back flops of the Zune, KIN, WiMo/WP and other initiatives that made it clear Microsoft was NOT an Apple. 

 

HP did essentially the same thing when it set up a press event for webOS and bored journalists to tears. The public at large didn't need to see the MSFT and HP events. It was the media seeing proof positive that there was simply no credibility in the story that "Apple had been surpassed" that changed the tune. And the public saw a sudden marked change in how the prospects of MSFT, HP and now Samsung are going to be reported. 

 

Investors too saw that this story about "Samsung = Apple" was a BS smokescreen. 

 

It's like creating hype around a moderately skilled athlete who goes to the olympics and chokes. Apple is under intense scrutiny. All these other companies in its shadows are getting a free pass, right up until they go on stage and blow it. At that point, the free ride turns into an unanticipated crisis they don't know how to recover from, because they've been riding on a cloud of BS for so long. Samsung just lost its midas touch, and will now have to actually perform under more intense scrutiny. The kind of pressure Apple gets when it unveils a new device with completely revamped hardware and lots of strong new features, and is still met with a "meah I'm bored, you didn't entertain me enough" response from the jackass tech media.  

 

Welcome to the big leagues, Samsung. At this point you have to start delivering or you'll be the next Zune. 

post #17 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrections View Post

Samsung's flop event is important because it erases the notion that "Samsung is the new Apple," an idea that a variety of Apple's critics had reason to spread.

Interesting PoV. I can't say that I've ever considered Samsung the next Apple but I see your point as to how others could be leaning that way and their articles about the event could sway the masses that were too disinterested to watch the event.

Is that event considered the reason why Apple's stock went up?

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #18 of 40

Maybe it's time for a BOGO sale, eh, Sammy?  That's "Buy One, Get One."  

(Sorry, don't know how to say that in Korean.)

 

BOGO worked for a while on Verizon, which used to be Android's safe haven in the US.

Until Verizon got iPhone, which now dominates Verizon's smartphone sales.

As you'd expect.

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post #19 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).

Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.

Do you really think that a great many people saw that?

Nope. Only the people that matter most.

post #20 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.

Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.

So the word got out there. 

I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.

I think you're underplaying the event a bit.

This certainly was no "Apple Event". But Samsung spent untold monies producing and marketing this thing. Invitations flowed, and the event was covered by every news and tech (and "tech news") outlet out there.

This wasn't Marvel announcing some new chip.

post #21 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Interesting PoV. I can't say that I've ever considered Samsung the next Apple but I see your point as to how others could be leaning that way and their articles about the event could sway the masses that were too disinterested to watch the event.

Is that event considered the reason why Apple's stock went up?

I still don't buy it. Was last year's event much better? Does anyone even remember last year's event? As good as Apple's presentations are it is not the reason their devices sell so well and Samsung's bad presentation isn't going to make their devices bomb.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #22 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

Nope. Only the people that matter most.

The people that matter the most are the millions of potential customers that will never be aware that there was a god awful presentation. The vast majority of those people don't visit tech blogs.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #23 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).

 

Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.


Did a significant number of people even experience the lauch presentation ??? I doubt it. Samsung will focus its advertising dollars and I doubt that the launch event will have any effect at all.

post #24 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

And there are advantages to the larger screen,..

I don't know what the advantages TO larger screen are; The large screen IS it's own advantage (i.e., everything's bigger)

There are, on the other hand, distinct disadvantages to the larger screen.

First and foremost is the problem (and for some people the complete inability) of using the device with a single hand. In my opinion this ability is a paramount feature for a pocket computer / phone. If it "requires" two hands to fully operate, then please give me voice service on an iPad Mini. That would be lovely.

Beyond easy one handed operation, I guess there's weight; battery; pocketability... I don't know, anything else?

post #25 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post

I don't see apple gaining on Samsung. Nokia and HTC I see as being possible but not Samsung 

 

Can't we just for once revel in a positive prediction about Apple? Please? Pretty please? Or is that too much to ask?

post #26 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



3) If you want to see a full report that includes up to three more words just send me $499 to get the full analysis as a zipped PDF.

Damn, TWO words from you are worth the $499, you're sweetening the deal with three??!! This is like a Billy Mays infomercial. Do you take credit cards? 1smile.gif

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #27 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

I think you're underplaying the event a bit.
This certainly was no "Apple Event". But Samsung spent untold monies producing and marketing this thing. Invitations flowed, and the event was covered by every news and tech (and "tech news") outlet out there.
This wasn't Marvel announcing some new chip.

Maybe, but I just don't see that being even a mediocre draw. Outside of this forum I haven't discussed anything about the Samsung even with people I know (including the S IV announcement), yet when there is another Apple event parts will be played on news channels that even my most beloved yet techtarded friends and family members will something to say about it.

Now Samsung's ads, on the other hand, I think are effective and I have talked about those with friends and family members. Those may attack Apple but they really are saying this is the Android device you need to buy if you don't want something from the fruit company. That strategy appears to have worked wonders if we can put any faith in marketing and looking at how they dominate the Android-based device market.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #28 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Can't we just for once revel in a positive prediction about Apple? Please? Pretty please? Or is that too much to ask?

Apple in #1 by a pretty large margin. So revel all you want, Apple is not in any danger especially since 'Unsure/Don't know' has a bigger market share than Samsung.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #29 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

It will be hard for any phone to be a game changer now, unless it is no longer a phone.

They said the same thing about laptops - until Apple introduced the MacBook Air. After that, everyone was so busy trying to copy it that they couldn't spare the time to say 'game changer'.
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #30 of 40
After this moronic presentation and the useless bag of features their new phone has I doubt samsung would built the same type of anticipation for their next phone.
post #31 of 40
This explains why Apple's stock is down again. :P
post #32 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

They said the same thing about laptops - until Apple introduced the MacBook Air. After that, everyone was so busy trying to copy it that they couldn't spare the time to say 'game changer'.

There are certainly several years worth of evolutionary improvements forthcoming:

802.11ac
802.11ad
LTE Advanced
VoLTE
20 nm process technology
14 nm process technology
Wireless Payments

Porting Core technologies to iOS (AirDrop for iOS?, Automator for iOS? Finder for iOS?, Gatekeeper for iOS?, Mission Control for iOS?)

Improvements to iCloud
Improvements to Maps
Improvements to Passbook
Improvements to Siri


I can understand the sentiment that there are no revolutionary improvements remaining in the smartphone arena. Watching the Samsung Unpacked 2013 presentation left me with the impression that Samsung didn't have any "big ideas" despite the deluge of hype.
Edited by MacBook Pro - 3/20/13 at 12:36pm
post #33 of 40

That launch was a bit of an mess. An awkward mess, to be specific. I don't know who planned out that live event, but they need to be fired.

I like some of the new software features introduced with the S4, but I'm not in love with the hardware. I was hoping they'd go the aluminum route this time like Apple and HTC, but for some reason they are just dead set on that cheap plastic nonsense.

Speaking of the HTC One, what a beautiful phone hampered by a horrible camera. I don't know what the designers were thinking, but 4MP in this day age, "Super Pixels" or not, just doesn't cut it. While the photos are passable for Facebook, and the lowlight performance is improved, the video performance is horrible for 4 years ago, let alone today. I considered getting one until I saw sample photos and video. Pass. Huge pass.

 

I don't like seeing stories like this, frankly, because an Apple that doesn't HAVE to innovate, WON'T innovate. I know bashing the competition is a favorite sport among many commenters here, but my feelings are competition in this space is a good thing, and keeps Apple cranking out products that not only wow, but dominate the market. I say this both as a user of their products, and as a share holder.

post #34 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taniwha View Post


Did a significant number of people even experience the lauch presentation ??? I doubt it. Samsung will focus its advertising dollars and I doubt that the launch event will have any effect at all.
The whole point of the event was for large numbers of people to experience it. This particular focus of advertising dollars seems to have failed. Their launch event having no effect at all, is a very negative effect.
post #35 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taniwha View Post

Did a significant number of people even experience the lauch presentation ??? I doubt it.

Even though I read the article here, I didn't watch the presentation, perhaps because I don't have Flash installed - if that was a requirement. I just find it easier to read a spec sheet for these types of products and can do without the marketing bit.

On AndroidCentral.com they ran a poll: HTC or Samsung:
post #36 of 40

Aww, poor little Samsung.

post #37 of 40
In the United States... Apple is #1 and Samsung #2 in sales.

And in the entire world... Samsung is #1 and Apple #2 in sales.

It's clear both those companies are doing something right... making billions of dollars... and will be around for a long time.

So... what about the rest of the industry? Aren't those other companies the ones we should be worried about?
post #38 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

And in the entire world... Samsung is #1 and Apple #2 in sales.

That's basically because of China + India. Samsung has gained market share (not profit share) selling cheap, low-profit stuff in these two highly price-conscious markets.

 

With Apple's moves (already afoot) in India, and when (not if) China Mobile pans out, this will change dramatically. (Samsung may still end up being #1 in market share in those two countries, but their profits will take a pummeling since they'll be relegated to scraping the bottom of the barrel).

post #39 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post

I don't see apple gaining on Samsung. Nokia and HTC I see as being possible but not Samsung 

 

Did you even read the article?

post #40 of 40
Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post
I don't see apple gaining on Samsung. Nokia and HTC I see as being possible but not Samsung 

 

That's nice. I totally couldn't have seen that coming¡

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