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BlackBerry 10 predicted to hold less than 5% market share through 2016

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
While BlackBerry's CEO this week called Apple's iOS platform outdated, it's the BlackBerry 10 operating system that's expected to have very little effect on the smartphone industry for the coming years.

A new prediction by research firm Gartner projects that BlackBerry 10 will hold less than 5 percent of the overall worldwide smartphone market through 2016. The firm sees the Canadian smartphone maker having an "extremely difficult" time taking on the current options of Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows Phone 8.

BlackBerry 10


Enterprises are faced with the question of how to determine user demand and address bring-your-own-device support at their companies, and BlackBerry users must also determine whether to upgrade the BlackBerry Enterprise Service. But Gartner sees three "key impacts" that it believes businesses should consider.

The first recommendation is that enterprises should trial BlackBerry 10 and familiarize themselves with the fledgling platform before deciding to adopt. The firm acknowledged that it will be a "daunting" challenge for BlackBerry to excite users about its new platform.

Gartner also believes that current market conditions will make it extremely difficult for BlackBerry to compete with iOS, Android, or even Windows Phone. As such, businesses are advised to wait and see how BlackBerry 10 plays out in the consumer market, which will likely determine the long-term viability of the platform.

Finally, it was also noted that BlackBerry has not opened its management application programming interface to support popular master data management tools. Currently, the only option for BlackBerry 10 devices is BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10, and Gartner believes BlackBerry should work to support alternative MDM tools by opening up additional MDM APIs.

Thorsten Heins, the CEO of BlackBerry, made headlines this week when he declared he believes Apple's iOS platform, which powers the iPhone and iPad, is outdated. He said competing platforms, such as BlackBerry 10, have surpassed Apple, which he believes has failed to innovate much with the iOS user interface since 2007.

"History repeats itself again, I guess," the BlackBerry CEO said. "The rate of innovation is so high in our industry that if you don't innovate at that speed you can be replaced pretty quickly. The user interface on the iPhone, with all due respect for what this invention was all about, is now five years old."
post #2 of 35
1) Wasn't Gartner also predicting WinMo would see huge rises YoY after the iPhone arrived?

2) I think we're at the event horizon for BB. I'm not even sure they will be in the smartphone market in 2016.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #3 of 35
3 year predictions for the smartphone market are always wrong. There are too many 'unknown unknowns' - future disruptive technologies, market trends and new players - to make an educated prediction on where the market is going.
post #4 of 35

So what? If they manage to target those 5% very well, they can have a much healthier business than everyone (besides Apple).

I mean, look at the Mac side of things. It's worth more than PCs from all OEMs combined.

 

I would like to see a healthy Blackberry in 2016.

 

I'm full of these morons that think that market share is the only thing that matters, even when all OEMs besides one are losing money (Android and soon, Windows).

post #5 of 35

I played with the new BB and I have to admit that it was really really nice. Is it better than my iPhone? No. But it certainly bridges the massive chasm that used to exist.

 

iOS does look outdated and in many ways is a bit of a mess, hopefully with Jonny Ive now in charge we will get a consistent UI rather than the mix that Forstall left behind.

iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #6 of 35

When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.

post #7 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.

Actually, he said 1%.
post #8 of 35
If BB really want's to stay in the smartphone business, I am pretty sure, they are already working on the Z11 as we are speaking. It's the same misconception as many AI- "trolls" have about Apple. They all assume R&D in these companies stop working once they release a new product.
But reality is, that they have to start working on the successor product even before the release of the actual product. That's how healthy companies work.
I have never had a Z10 in my hands, but what I saw from different reviews made me believe, that BB has finally accomplished to bring an actual player in to the game. Particularly of course for companies and organizations with the need of high security systems.

My prediction is, that they might jump over the 5% hurdle.
post #9 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

1) Wasn't Gartner also predicting WinMo would see huge rises YoY after the iPhone arrived?

2) I think we're at the event horizon for BB. I'm not even sure they will be in the smartphone market in 2016.

There are still many companies that will still use them because of their security, which is still tops in the business. Kinda like GM, no matter how many crap cars they make they will always sell hordes to local, state and federal agencies.
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #10 of 35
Enough with the 'predictions' please.

Blackberry was 'predicted' to go out of business in 2012.

BB10 was 'predicted' to be DOA.

Now another bozo analcyst is making another lame 'prediction'.

Let's leave the predictions to fortune tellers and stop printing this garbage.
post #11 of 35

"Apple's market share is bigger than BMW's or Mercedes's or Porsche's in the automotive market. What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes?" - Steve Jobs

 

I believe Apple had about a 4-5% share of the computing market at the time he said that.

 

I wouldn't discount BlackBerry just yet. There are still a ton of corporate types that love them and if you go to Indonesia or India all you see are BlackBerry ads. They are about three years too late to the party with a decent touch platform that could have prevented their massive loss of market share in other markets. They now should be able to compete head on with the likes of Samsung/Android/Windows Phone (where they are most like to draw market share away from). The question is whether or not developers will embrace the platform. At least they've made it easy for Android developers to port. Haven't held a Z10 yet so can't speak to the hardware. Mossberg gave them an ok review.

 

I think BlackBerry's best chance is if they license the OS to other vendors like HTC who don't really have an allegiances. I figure Windows Phone will be dead in a couple of years and Google will have decided the way forward for them is to finally leverage the Motorola mobility purchase and no longer support other vendors. That'll leave Samsung and Nokia (if Nokia still exists) trying to figure out what to do next. Nokia may jump to BlackBerry and Samsung will probably try out their Tizen approach and fail spectacularly. It's shaping up as quite a battle with Apple laughing from the sidelines.

post #12 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by otterfish View Post

"Apple's market share is bigger than BMW's or Mercedes's or Porsche's in the automotive market. What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes?" - Steve Jobs

 

I believe Apple had about a 4-5% share of the computing market at the time he said that.

 

I wouldn't discount BlackBerry just yet. There are still a ton of corporate types that love them and if you go to Indonesia or India all you see are BlackBerry ads. They are about three years too late to the party with a decent touch platform that could have prevented their massive loss of market share in other markets. They now should be able to compete head on with the likes of Samsung/Android/Windows Phone (where they are most like to draw market share away from). The question is whether or not developers will embrace the platform. At least they've made it easy for Android developers to port. Haven't held a Z10 yet so can't speak to the hardware. Mossberg gave them an ok review.

 

I think BlackBerry's best chance is if they license the OS to other vendors like HTC who don't really have an allegiances. I figure Windows Phone will be dead in a couple of years and Google will have decided the way forward for them is to finally leverage the Motorola mobility purchase and no longer support other vendors. That'll leave Samsung and Nokia (if Nokia still exists) trying to figure out what to do next. Nokia may jump to BlackBerry and Samsung will probably try out their Tizen approach and fail spectacularly. It's shaping up as quite a battle with Apple laughing from the sidelines.

HTC should be doing great, their devices are so awesome.

 

Maybe Apple could help them, by licensing iTunes (for example)?

A strong HTC means weaker Samsung(and possible android forks) and more fragmented Android. Apple would still earn money.

They can do the same for blackberry, in exchange of something related to security?

post #13 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

HTC should be doing great, their devices are so awesome.

 

Maybe Apple could help them, by licensing iTunes (for example)?

A strong HTC means weaker Samsung(and possible android forks) and more fragmented Android. Apple would still earn money.

They can do the same for blackberry, in exchange of something related to security?

I'd really like to see HTC have a good year. I think they could start really pumping out some nice phones. Assuming they fix their battery issues (from my experience), I had the HTC Inspire for a short time and almost always had to charge multiple times a day.

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post #14 of 35
All good comments....

I agree MS Windows phones are DOA, but MS can't get out of the mobile phone market. It's just too big a market. Especially with the dismal state of the PC market.

I agree apps are important, but as most of us know on this site, it's the ecosystem that Apple has built that is a huge advantage over its competition. The integration between, mail, iLife, iWork, iTunes, iPhone, iPads, laptops and iMacs is huge! It just can't be replicated using an Android phone and a MS PC/tablet with a mish-mash of free google apps and third party windows based SW.

And there is Apple's build quality!
post #15 of 35

No one goes down in a straight line. Just the matter of time and Blackberry goes bankrupt!  Only way to get saved is to snatch up the market share from Samdung!

post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

When the iPhone was released in 2007 I remember Steve Jobs saying something to the effect that he would be happy with a 5% piece of the market.


I think he said 1%.

 

Anyway, market changes are way too fast and furious. Predicting the market is like predicting the weather 3 years out. Or even 2 weeks out.

 

It's all psychology and the views of people. Look how much the shine has come off Apple since Steve has left. Hiring Browett. Then hiring this Adobe character? Confidence in Apple is way down.

post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

There are still many companies that will still use them because of their security, which is still tops in the business. Kinda like GM, no matter how many crap cars they make they will always sell hordes to local, state and federal agencies.

For their sake I hope you're right, but the British government — if I'm remembering it correctly — has already turned down the BB10 OS for security issues.


edit: That is correct but there is also an update that shows BB still has a chance to make good: http://www.engadget.com/2013/03/20/blackberry-10-not-secure-enough-for-uk-government-workers/

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #18 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfezziwig View Post

Enough with the 'predictions' please.

Blackberry was 'predicted' to go out of business in 2012.

BB10 was 'predicted' to be DOA.

Now another bozo analcyst is making another lame 'prediction'.

Let's leave the predictions to fortune tellers and stop printing this garbage.

Yuo mad bro?

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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #19 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfezziwig View Post

Let's leave the predictions to fortune tellers and stop printing this garbage.

Um, whom do you think are making these predictions? It's the modern day fortune tellers known as analysts. They peer into their crystal bollucks then reach into their vast ass chasm to come up with these ideas.
Edited by SolipsismX - 3/26/13 at 12:43pm

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #20 of 35
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
They peer into their crystal bullocks and reach into their vast ass chasm to come up with these ideas.

 

I wish I could put this in my signature.

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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post #21 of 35

I predict that Blackberry or RIM or whatever name that they choose to call themselves will be almost extinct by 2016.

post #22 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

It's the modern day fortune tellers known as analysts. They peer into their crystal bullocks and reach into their vast ass chasm to come up with these ideas.

Who took the jam out of your doughnut this morning?
:-) Just kidding Soli. We need to make your quote a sticky on the forums when an analyst piece comes up, methinks.
..... the greatest fame comes from adding to human knowledge, not winning battles.
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post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I predict that Blackberry or RIM or whatever name that they choose to call themselves will be almost extinct by 2016.

Sorry, I usually share most of your opinions (exept the strictly political ones - but that's OK with me) but in this case, I believe, that you are quite wrong.

BB has been undergoing some drastic changes since Billsilly (os so ;-)) has left the battered company. I actually have some hope, that BB becomes at least #3-4 in the Smartphone game.

Personally I like BB over MSFT phones or Android phones. Particularly for companies I think BB will soon come right after Apple.

post #24 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Sorry, I usually share most of your opinions (exept the strictly political ones - but that's OK with me) but in this case, I believe, that you are quite wrong.
BB has been undergoing some drastic changes since Billsilly (os so ;-)) has left the battered company. I actually have some hope, that BB becomes at least #3-4 in the Smartphone game.
Personally I like BB over MSFT phones or Android phones. Particularly for companies I think BB will soon come right after Apple.

I think BB has done a great job with both BB10 and the Z10. I don't, however, think that being great is necessarily good enough, especially when it has taken them so long to come to market. WebOS had plenty of great aspects and it failed. Win Phone has plenty of great aspects and it's not fairing too well. I sincerely hope we get to see another success story, like we saw with Apple, but so far I don't see a clear path for them. I think they were smart to change their name to BB and were smart to get rid of their co-CEO setup. On top of that I would love to see the founder who recently sold off every last share of his stock to kick himself as BB turns itself around. Unfortunately it's mostly been a free fall with the occasional handhold of rooted dirt that makes them think they are safe before it finally gives way and they start to fall again.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #25 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I think BB has done a great job with both BB10 and the Z10. I don't, however, think that being great is necessarily good enough, especially when it has taken them so long to come to market. WebOS had plenty of great aspects and it failed. Win Phone has plenty of great aspects and it's not fairing too well. I sincerely hope we get to see another success story, like we saw with Apple, but so far I don't see a clear path for them. I think they were smart to change their name to BB and were smart to get rid of their co-CEO setup. On top of that I would love to see the founder who recently sold off every last share of his stock to kick himself as BB turns itself around. Unfortunately it's mostly been a free fall with the occasional handhold of rooted dirt that makes them think they are safe before it finally gives way and they start to fall again.

If - and only if BB has no successor of the Z10 up their sleeves, you might be right. But as I mentionrd erlier, I strongly believe, that the Z10 is just the beginning of a new aera at BB. and there are already several prototypes of Z11 underway. If they don't have that - well there is still the option to licence their OS. But that, would certainly just postpone their final downfall. Something I somehow hope they can prevent.

post #26 of 35

Time will tell. Personally, I think its all up to two factors. If, and thats a big if, from my personal knowledge of Corporate IT, the corporations agree to upgrade to BES10. A lot of folks on these forums don't understand, that these new phones do NOT work with the old BES. For the corporations to support these BB10 phones in their corporate systems, they need to upgrade to BES10. Individuals don't need to worry about that. They can use them out of the box for their personal email etc. For folks to say, "well they can use Good, or Mobile Iron, or Blackberry Balance."  People, the corporations STILL need to use BES10 for the corporate security side, for even these systems to work.

 

Next, I still think the Q10 will be the deciding phone. I continue to believe most of the "old" blackberry users will prefer the keyboard phone. If they really really like that phone, that will give BB a leg up.

 

On the other hand, more related to the article, if BB is still around in 2016, that has to be a major accomplishment and one to respect!

post #27 of 35

Going to be tough to bring the Blackberry name back after such a long wait. Especially when corporate and government seem to be flocking away from Blackberry.

post #28 of 35
Today (Mar22/13) I looked at the new BB phone in my favorite phone store. After the RIM comment about Apple's iOS being stale, I just had to look at their product.

Much like the iPhone iOS, with a few useful differences.
Like pull down Settings and spell checker suggestion displayed at the bottom. Nothing earth shattering however, for those who know Apple's iOS.
Surprising that the store demo Phones weren't connected online and the clerk's demo phone seemed a bit slow at times.

My acid test was does their Browser have a bookmark mgr, the lack of same on my Playbook forever frustrates me.
Nope, both I and the store chap who demoed it were very surprised that it didn't.
Oh well, the new BB phone is not ready for me yet!
post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think BB has done a great job with both BB10 and the Z10. I don't, however, think that being great is necessarily good enough, especially when it has taken them so long to come to market. WebOS had plenty of great aspects and it failed. Win Phone has plenty of great aspects and it's not fairing too well. I sincerely hope we get to see another success story, like we saw with Apple, but so far I don't see a clear path for them. I think they were smart to change their name to BB and were smart to get rid of their co-CEO setup. On top of that I would love to see the founder who recently sold off every last share of his stock to kick himself as BB turns itself around. Unfortunately it's mostly been a free fall with the occasional handhold of rooted dirt that makes them think they are safe before it finally gives way and they start to fall again.

I too would like to see BB succeed, more competition for Apple is good for all.

However after trying a Z10 today, I'm not impressed.    It's slow and has a browser missing needed function, like a Bookmark Mgr. It has a few UI advances over iOS, perhaps Apple will try to introduce them.

 

As for the RIM founder he has now found a new "make me richer" business activity.

He has founded the private Quantum Fund.  Will they sell units to pick up 1% of others money?

http://www.inc.com/julie-strickland/quantum-valley-investments.html

 The founding duo of BlackBerry maker Research in Motion, Mike Lazaridis and Doug Fregin, are partnering to bankroll a $100 million CAD ($97 million U.S.)  investment fund targeting commercial applications for advancements in quantum science.

post #30 of 35
The new Z10 is a really tempting phone, the BB10 OS is just fantastic. I'm a little worried about the apps and map functionality. I need to wait till August till I need to decide but it's defiantly on top of my list.
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post #31 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoshA View Post

My acid test was does their Browser have a bookmark mgr, the lack of same on my Playbook forever frustrates me.
Nope, both I and the store chap who demoed it were very surprised that it didn't.
Oh well, the new BB phone is not ready for me yet!

 

Blackberry decided for UI reasons not to implement a "traditional" bookmark manager --- bookmarks are managed by tags and searches.  You can manage bookmarks in the Z10.

 

Whether people likes or dislikes Blackberry's decision, that's another matter.  It's like OS X's "smart folders", I know quite a few people that just hates it.

post #32 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

 

Blackberry decided for UI reasons not to implement a "traditional" bookmark manager --- bookmarks are managed by tags and searches.  You can manage bookmarks in the Z10.

 

Whether people likes or dislikes Blackberry's decision, that's another matter.  It's like OS X's "smart folders", I know quite a few people that just hates it.

That was defiantly a frustrating aspect of the Playbook, however it did have a history and as I only have a hand full of regular sites that I visit it wasn't a deal breaker. That and I use Google predominantly to search for articles anyway.

When I looked up "Ninjas" in Thesaurus.com, it said "Ninja's can't be found" Well played Ninjas, well played.
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post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Blackberry decided for UI reasons not to implement a "traditional" bookmark manager --- bookmarks are managed by tags and searches.  You can manage bookmarks in the Z10.

Whether people likes or dislikes Blackberry's decision, that's another matter.  It's like OS X's "smart folders", I know quite a few people that just hates it.

The difference is smart folders are an option in Mac OS X, which is on a case with "traditional" bookmark manager her, among other issues. If you have a completely new paradigm that is much better than your competitors you can get away with not have certain features for a bit, but when you're just playing catch-upi it doesn't fly when these aren't included.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

That was defiantly a frustrating aspect of the Playbook

You use the word 'defiantly' a few times. I think you mean to use 'definitely'. Defiantly means going against someone else's wishes, definitely means with certainty. So if you wanted to say 'that was certainly a frustrating aspect', you'd use 'definitely'. If you wanted to say 'Samsung used Apple's designs against Apple's wishes', you'd say they did it defiantly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX 
I think we're at the event horizon for BB. I'm not even sure they will be in the smartphone market in 2016.

They've allowed iOS and Android to get a huge lead and they now have to face the prospect of trying to get people to switch. I think they still have a strong brand status with business users and they can maintain their marketing for business users too. I doubt they'll reach the 500 million+ users of iOS and Android but they'd be doing pretty well to maintain their 80 million-strong user base and the latest smartphone should be capable of that.
post #35 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The difference is smart folders are an option in Mac OS X, which is on a case with "traditional" bookmark manager her, among other issues. If you have a completely new paradigm that is much better than your competitors you can get away with not have certain features for a bit, but when you're just playing catch-upi it doesn't fly when these aren't included.


It is a feature that people have been asking for since the first day of the Playbook launch, so RIM knows the importance of it.  But RIM is also intentionally making a design decision on bookmark management.  Like the rest of the UI, it has a learning curve. 

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