or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple's largest active shareholder cuts stake by 10%
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple's largest active shareholder cuts stake by 10% - Page 3

post #81 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

Just look at Yahoo finance, and see who the major holders of AAPL are. Jeez. And no, hedge funds cannot buy 50-1, and the big ones (e.g. Einhorn's Greenlight Capital) are not levered at all.

 

Key word is HOLDERS.  The hedge funds are buying and selling everyday and are not HOLDING.  They are also hedging with options.  I'm pretty sure hedge funds can buy stock at 20-1 or 30-1 ratio.  Apple averages about 18 million shares sold a day.  Do you really think all those are mutual fund transations????

 

That's almost 10x more transactions than Google.  If you dont think there is short term price manipulation with Apple than you are naive.

post #82 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

What? Look at ADJUSTED return. As for the P/E, I am not comparing the statistics of MSFT and AAPL. The point of what I am saying is that MSFT was reasonably fairly valued in 2001, and it is quite likely that so is AAPL now. As for why the MSFT P/E was 50 vs AAPL's 6 -- same reason GOOG has a higher P/E than AAPL: MSFT was perceived at the time as untouchable in their core markets (OS, Office suite), while AAPL's lead in phones is viewed as quite precarious.


Adjusted for what?  That chart is already adjusted for stock splits.

And I think that you just admitted that there is no parallel between current day Apple and 2000 Microsoft, if Apple stock is flat of the next 10 years it will be for totally different reasons.


Edited by e1618978 - 4/16/13 at 2:44pm
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
post #83 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

Splits and dividends, what else?


The chart is already adjusted for splits, microsoft stock has been flat - but maybe you could hit 50% with lucky timing and dividends.

45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
post #84 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

Google's float is a quarter of Apple's, their daily volume is about a seventh of Apple's, so yes AAPL is more actively traded, but in actuality Apple has much lower insititutional ownership (64% vs 85% for Google), which explains the remaining factor of two (insitutions generally buy and hold). A lot of the volume in any stock is marketmaking transactions (basically very high frequency traders trading amongst themselves) -- these will affect the price variation minute-to-minute, but not long term trends. Very high frequency traders can use high leverage (not 20-1, but maybe 5-1), people who hold overnight do not. So no, there is no manipulation, just the market losing confidence in Apple's management (I hope the management will prove them wrong, but my hope is not increasing). Why do you think anyone would want to manipulate the price of Apple, in preference to, say, Google, or Exxon-Mobil?

 

They are manipulating Apple instead of Google/Exxon because of Apple's say nothing policy.  They can easily float a rumor and get away with it.

post #85 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Have you read my post? What it says is that the market was generally right about MSFT, and it might well be right  about Apple. The market generally looks at the future, and not the past.

 

LOL.  So you are saying Dell/HP/Garmin has a brighter future than Apple?

post #86 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

Apple has a P/E of 6, not 50.  How exactly do you propose that the situation is the same over the next 10 years?

Both companies peaked and have no more growth left. Microsoft couldn't really get much higher than a 94% marketshare in 2001.

Apple has the option to grow in volume but they can't really go much higher in terms of earnings. I think Apple still has some room to grow with the iPad but how much, will be clearer over the next year or two.

What do you think the next 10 years will look like and why?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 
So you are saying Dell/HP/Garmin has a brighter future than Apple?

You'd have to separate a brighter future for the company vs a brighter future for investors. If Apple continues to earn the same profits, they aren't growing. The company will be doing just fine but how much of a return do investors get?

The assumption tends to be that if investors aren't making a good return, that equates to the company performing poorly. If you bought Microsoft stock today, it wouldn't be worthwhile but the company will probably be fine for the next 10 years.

Would it be wise to buy stock in Apple today expecting growth knowing that they have a higher market cap than any other company?
post #87 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

They are manipulating Apple instead of Google/Exxon because of Apple's say nothing policy.  They can easily float a rumor and get away with it.
Yep and it is working. Stock down 4% so far today because DigiTimes is reporting some supply chain rumor about ipad mini demand dropping and investors are getting nervous about the quarter.
post #88 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


Both companies peaked and have no more growth left. Microsoft couldn't really get much higher than a 94% marketshare in 2001.

Apple has the option to grow in volume but they can't really go much higher in terms of earnings. I think Apple still has some room to grow with the iPad but how much, will be clearer over the next year or two.

What do you think the next 10 years will look like and why?
You'd have to separate a brighter future for the company vs a brighter future for investors. If Apple continues to earn the same profits, they aren't growing. The company will be doing just fine but how much of a return do investors get?

The assumption tends to be that if investors aren't making a good return, that equates to the company performing poorly. If you bought Microsoft stock today, it wouldn't be worthwhile but the company will probably be fine for the next 10 years.

Would it be wise to buy stock in Apple today expecting growth knowing that they have a higher market cap than any other company?

 

Apple may or may not grow.  But Garmin/HP/Dell are dying.

post #89 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


Both companies peaked and have no more growth left. Microsoft couldn't really get much higher than a 94% marketshare in 2001.

Apple has the option to grow in volume but they can't really go much higher in terms of earnings. I think Apple still has some room to grow with the iPad but how much, will be clearer over the next year or two.

What do you think the next 10 years will look like and why?


I disagree about the growth ending for Apple, even without new products - smartphone growth will continue, it follows the pattern:

1. People buy a cheap feature phone

2. Upgrade to android, can't afford iPhone

3. iPhone purchase is aspirational, android market share gradually moves to Apple.

iPhone market share is going up in the US now that smartphone penetration is close to maxed out here, as people trade up from Android.  The same thing will happen in China and India eventually.

Then there are new products - Apple has a lock on the whole music industry, due to such a high percentage of total sales being from iTunes.  The same thing will happen in other types of media (games on the AppleTV, etc) until their ecosystem is the reason that people buy Apple devices.

I think that 10 years from now Apple could have significantly higher earnings and revenue than now - how much higher I can't predict, but Apple is already priced for zero growth so any positive growth will move the stock up.


Edited by e1618978 - 4/17/13 at 8:42am
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
post #90 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


I disagree about the growth ending for Apple, even without new products - smartphone growth will continue, it follows the pattern:

1. People buy a cheap feature phone

2. Upgrade to android, can't afford iPhone

3. iPhone purchase is aspirational, android market share gradually moves to Apple.

iPhone market share is going up in the US now that smartphone penetration is close to maxed out here, as people trade up from Android.  The same thing will happen in China and India eventually.

Then there are new products - Apple has a lock on the whole music industry, due to such a high percentage of total sales being from iTunes.  The same thing will happen in other types of media (games on the AppleTV, etc) until their ecosystem is the reason that people buy Apple devices.

I think that 10 years from now Apple could have significantly higher earnings and revenue than now - how much higher I can't predict, but Apple is already priced for zero growth so any positive growth will move the stock up.

 

All I know is Apple's growth potential is 10x greater than Dell, HP, and Garmin.  Yet those dying companies have a much higher PE.  If you take out cash Apple's PE is close to 5, or almost 50% lower than Dell.

post #91 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

android market share gradually moves to Apple.

Income distribution plays a big part though. Apple is a premium product manufacturer. Take their laptops for example, their 15" laptop starts at $1800. You can buy a PC laptop for under $500. People can aspire to own an $1800 laptop but unless their income goes up significantly and it's important enough to them to pay that for a laptop, it'll never happen. Apple already has ~20% marketshare in mobile phones:

http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/25/global-mobile-phone-shipments-2012/

How many of the 80% can afford a premium phone? Some of Samsung's 30% certainly but between the two of them, they've probably covered the bulk of the premium segment. That's why the suggestion keeps coming up to make a cheaper phone but that has the downside of straining their supply and lowering average selling prices as well as cannibalising the higher priced models. Samsung sells 50% more phones than Apple but makes less than half the profit.

Will Apple have the capacity to ship more than 50 million phones in 3 months? 100 million? There must be a limit to what a single company can manage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

Then there are new products - Apple has a lock on the whole music industry, due to such a high percentage of total sales being from iTunes.  The same thing will happen in other types of media (games on the AppleTV, etc)

Yes, there are opportunities in media products and content provision but they aren't high profit ventures. A television has the potential to give them about 10% earnings growth, a digital watch likely very little. I'd like to see some form of gaming on the Apple TV, I think party games and streaming games would be popular but even then, you can see how many people buy the consoles - it's <100m in >5 years. The current Apple TV box sells 2m per quarter and is a pretty low priced item.
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

I think that 10 years from now Apple could have significantly higher earnings and revenue than now - how much higher I can't predict, but Apple is already priced for zero growth so any positive growth will move the stock up.

I agree any signs of growth should have a positive effect but I think they are limited in how much they can grow. The world population isn't going to change much in 10 years. The whole financial system is a closed system so they can only take a portion of what's there and they have decided they like the low volume premium market, which will always have a minority portion. It can only grow until they saturate it and for the phones, I'd say 20% is close. I could see the iPad shipping a little more - it had a 50% growth over last year - but even here, they are already on track for 100 million units this year. I can't imagine that the tablet market is larger than the PC market (350m/year) so Apple's share is already significant.

But IMO, this isn't a bad thing and it's the best place for them to be. They are shipping the highest volumes of premium products so that maintains their brand and the profits keep rolling in and they are able to keep up the supply capacity. Outside of making AAPL appeal more to investors, they have little reason to increase volumes.

Tim Cook has said he doesn't think there's a limit to their growth but time will tell if that's true.
post #92 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Believe what you want. Apple's management, not some hedge fund cabal, is killing the stock price,

Exactly! Since late 2012, I tried to warn Apple zealots here to protect their capital and sell AAPL. The reasons is that the mistakes made by Tim Cook were bound to ruin Apple stock. It was clear as day to me. But Apple zealots blocked some of my posts, called the truth to be a lie, and repeatedly asked me to leave the forum. They just wanted to keep wearing their rose-coloured glasses. Well, the market took them off. 

My orignal 2012 forecast of AAPL heading from $700 to $300 and Tim Cook leaving his CEO post before 2014, may be sooner, still stands. 

post #93 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

I actually doubt the latter -- Apple has a weak board, so that would have to change before any talk of Cook's departure. Anyway, Cook is a good ops guy, just the wrong man for the CEO job.

Cook is brilliant at what he did under Jobs - chain-supply, negotiations, spreadsheets. But he has no sense of products. As Ron Johnson miserably failed without Jobs oversight, the same way Cook fails with no Jobs giving direction. 

 

Apple zealots really underestimate Jobs importance and overestimate Cooks abilities. Well, when stock drops further, the board will be pressed to make changes. I can't recall larger shareholder loss in such a short time. We are talking almost $300 billion lost in a few months. Most companies entire worth is under $300 Billion.

If the board does not act, Cook either has to radically change his approach or ask to be moved  from his CEO post. 

post #94 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by enature View Post

Apple zealots really underestimate Jobs importance and overestimate Cooks abilities. 
Do you work at Apple with a direct link to Jobs and Cook to be able make such a claim?

censored

Reply

censored

Reply
post #95 of 95
Any investor exiting from Apple will regret soon...
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple's largest active shareholder cuts stake by 10%