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IHS sees netbooks dead by 2015, blames Apple's iPad

post #1 of 76
Thread Starter 
Even as the wider PC industry declines thanks to the rise of mobile devices, IHS is predicting that one segment in particular will be fully dead within two years, with Apple's iPad as the primary driver in its decline.

iphone 4s
Apple's iPad, shown here with a Belkin keyboard dock, performs most of the same duties as a netbook.


Netbooks were supposed to be the bridge between mobile devices like smartphones and the traditional PC form factor. The category peaked in 2010 with 32.14 million units shipped. That's also the same year that Apple's iPad hit the market, and it's been a rapid downhill slide for the netbook category since.

IHS iSuppli has released a new report saying that netbook shipments for 2013 will be only a bit over 10 percent of that 2010 total, according to the LA Times. The 3.97 million unit figure forecast for 2013 is not just a precipitous drop from 2010's figure, though: it's a 72 percent drop from 2012's shipments.

The news doesn't get better for the category. By 2014, IHS predicts, the netbook segment will move just 264,000 units. By 2015, IHS believes the segment will be dead, with no units shipped.

"Netbooks shot to popularity immediately after launch because they were optimized for low cost, delivering what many consumers believed as acceptable computer performance," IHS analyst Craig Stice said in the report. "However, netbooks began their descent into oblivion with the introduction in 2010 of Apple's iPad."

Apple's bestselling tablet has come to the forefront of a struggling PC industry. As consumers increasingly opt for smartphones and tablets over traditional computing form factors, virtually no manufacturer is immune from the resulting PC downturn. The iPad, though, has been ? as Apple CEO Tim Cook called it ? the poster child of the Post-PC revolution, and now accounts for one in every six shipped computers.

Prior to the iPad's introduction, a number of analysts and industry observers thought it inevitable that Apple would release its own device to compete in the netbook segment. In the netbook's heyday, the cheapest portable MacBook was still twice or more the cost of the cheapest netbooks.

Then-Apple CEO Steve Jobs repeatedly dismissed the netbook category, saying it wasn't an area Apple was interested in.

"We don't know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that," Jobs said in 2008 when asked about the possibility of an Apple netbook.

Apple eventually responded to the netbook category, though, releasing the iPad in 2010 and delivering what Jobs deemed a "true third-category device." Touting the iPad, Jobs once again dismissed the netbook segment as incomplete and not really delivering what consumers wanted.



"The problem is: netbooks aren't better at anything," Jobs said. "They're slow, they have low-quality displays, and they run clunky, old PC software. We don't think they're a third-category device."
post #2 of 76
These IT consulting firm predictions are, of course, worth the paper they're written on, but if it does come to pass, it would a stunning validation of Steve's foresight.

Something tells me that it will. Maybe not in 2015, maybe before, maybe after, but it will.
post #3 of 76

Netbooks died in January 2010. How stupid do you have to be to not see that, much less think they'll be around two MORE years?

 

Then again, VGA has ANOTHER YEAR of support, meaning it will be on motherboards until the bitter end. You can still find computers with PS/2 ports, after all.

post #4 of 76
But, i thought apple is no selling enough ipads and the company is domed? now is there fault that notebooks don't sale ??? I don't get this people....
post #5 of 76

Damn you Apple for making my once media-awesomely-taunted netbook! I'll jump on the litigation band wagon and sue you! Just in case some of you dumb asses don't know what sarcasm is, this ain't it you moron! Long live netbooks!

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post #6 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpvn View Post

But, i thought apple is no selling enough ipads and the company is domed

 

It's true...

 

 

 

post #7 of 76

Funny, just having this conversation yesterday. I always wondered why Apple has ignored the desktop (Mac Pro) when the iPad will clearly cannibalize laptops as they increase in features and power. Laptops are ergonomic nightmare, and will look look like 1980's cell phones in a few years.

post #8 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by unDED View Post

Damn you Apple for making my once media-awesomely-taunted netbook!

Apple never made netbooks.

 

 

Quote:
 I'll jump on the litigation band wagon and sue you! Just in case some of you dumb asses don't know what sarcasm is, this ain't it you moron!

Since this is not sarcasm, you are gonna jump on the bandwagon and sue Apple?

 

Who's the dumb-ass moron? 

post #9 of 76

The only folks thinking that netbooks were going to clean house were moronic cheapskates and phandroids.  Netbooks were garbage to begin with, using cheapo component and had laughable quality-control.

Plenty of those people trolling on this site will continue to sit quietly in the shadows and hope nobody calls them out on their hugely stupid opinions.

Netbooks were doomed to fail.  I'm glad they went belly-up.  Shame that valuable resources were wasted on this landfill crap.  Shame on the people that defended this product line.

post #10 of 76
I still see netbooks in coffee shops and such but it's not very often. I mostly see Mac notebooks, then iPads (oft with keyboard cases that make it a netbook-style device that is usable), then non-Mac notebooks, then netbooks.

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post #11 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

Apple never made netbooks.


Since this is not sarcasm, you are gonna jump on the bandwagon and sue Apple?

Who's the dumb-ass moron? 

Sure they do. MBAs are netbooks done properly.
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post #12 of 76

To answer your question: you are since you took the bait. But thanks for the laugh.

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post #13 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Sure they do. MBAs are netbooks done properly.

Netbooks came out of Intel releasing the Atom processor, a very, very inexpensive chip. The MBAs have never used an Atom processor. In fact, there CPUs are SFF (small form factor) ULV (ulta-low voltage) Core processors. By themselves these CULV SFFs cost as much the average netbook.

ULV processors have existed for years, but these SFF chips are something Intel had created then shelved as there was no market for them before Apple wanted to make a thin, lightweight notebook that eschewed components (i.e.: optical disc drive) many users simply don't use or need. What Apple made what in no way a netbook but a quality, ultralight notebook.

On top of that netbooks tend to come in diminutive sizes in the 10" range. The MBA was only a 13" machine for the first 2 years of its life, only being released as an 11" model in October 2010.

Finally, all MBAs are reasonably capable of doing much more what a netbook could do. The word "net" is quite apropos as they couldn't reasonable do much more than surf the net, and choked with Flash videos past 480p. The MBAs are certainly slower than MacBooks (just as MacBooks are slower than MacBook Pros), but they are no way the same class of machine. It's like comparing Steak-umm® to an actual steak.
Edited by SolipsismX - 4/13/13 at 4:03pm

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post #14 of 76
Netbooks were killed by Microsoft....forcing oems to install Windows over Linux and restricting screen sizes to 10in.

Basically held the industry to ransom...
post #15 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Netbooks died in January 2010. How stupid do you have to be to not see that, much less think they'll be around two MORE years?

 

The whole netbook thing was executed poorly. They were originally designed to run some flavor of Linux rather than Windows.

 

 

Quote:

Then again, VGA has ANOTHER YEAR of support, meaning it will be on motherboards until the bitter end. You can still find computers with PS/2 ports, after all.

They aren't there for average user general content consumption. VGA held out due to projectors.. Serial ports I'm guessing debugging of some kind or some other specialized use case. There are a lot of annoying corner cases, but you don't find either on the majority of machines these days.

post #16 of 76
I don't know a single person that has a netbook that loves it.
post #17 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Netbooks came out of Intel releasing the Atom processor, a very, very inexpensive chip. The MBAs have never used an Atom processor. In fact, there CPUs are SFF (small form factor) ULV (ulta-low voltage) Core processors. By themselves these CULV SFFs cost as much the average netbook.

ULV processors have existed for years, but these SFF chips are something Intel had created then shelved as there was no market for them before Apple wanted to make a thin, lightweight notebook that eschewed components (i.e.: optical disc drive) many users simply don't use or need. What Apple made what in no way a netbook but a quality, ultralight notebook.

On top of that netbooks tend to come in diminutive sizes in the 10" range. The MBA was only a 13" machine for the first 2 years of its life, only being released as an 11" model in October 2010.

Finally, all MBAs are reasonably capable of doing much more what a netbook could do. The word "net" is quite apropos as they couldn't reasonable do much more than surf the net, and choked with Flash videos past 480p. The MBAs are certainly slower than MacBooks (just as MacBooks are slower than MacBook Pros), but they are no way the same class of machine. It's like comparing Steak-umm® to an actual steak.

Or a iPhone to a Palm Treo? The Treo was a smartphone and the vastly superior iPhone is as well. I would say that most netbooks are a Smart Car and a MBA a Ferrari but they're both still cars.
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post #18 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Or a iPhone to a Palm Treo? The Treo was a smartphone and the vastly superior iPhone is as well. I would say that most netbooks are a Smart Car and a MBA a Ferrari but they're both still cars.

I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.

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post #19 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.

This made me think of the below from Big Bang Theory:

 

Zack: Is that like all thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs?

Sheldon: Surprisingly ... yes!

post #20 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.

It's all semantics. No but you said how much more powerful a MBA is to the average netbook, and I compared the power between the iPhone and a Treo. While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word. Using that logic you should think tablet is a bad word considering all the crappy tablets (which were way worse than netbooks) that existed before the iPad.
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post #21 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUnfetteredMind View Post

This made me think of the below from Big Bang Theory:

Zack: Is that like all thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs?
Sheldon: Surprisingly ... yes!

Yes but all thumbs are thumbs no matter how big or small, and all penises are dicks but not all dicks are penises.
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post #22 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

It's all semantics. No but you said how much more powerful a MBA is to the average netbook, and I compared the power between the iPhone and a Treo. While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word. Using that logic you should think tablet is a bad word considering all the crappy tablets (which were way worse than netbooks) that existed before the iPad.

Not really. It's categorizing based on technologies. I specifically mentioned Ultrabooks so prevent you from making this argument since it's not an Apple v. Others situation, it has to do with inherent technologies, not brand names or build quality, that separate these machines from being improperly labeled.

As for tablets, thick back to 2010. What kind of HW did those tablets run? CPUs much, much faster than was found in the original iPad, and probably still much faster than in the current, 4th gen iPad. The beauty of the iPad wasn't that it was faster, but that the HW was idealized for the form factor and the OS idealized for the HW. This is why it worked. If the iPad is a MacBook Pro then the Kindle Fire is a netbook, by certain criteria, but it's still a tablet.

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post #23 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"The problem is: netbooks aren't better at anything," Jobs said. "They're slow, they have low-quality displays, and they run clunky, old PC software. We don't think they're a third-category device."

 

The interesting thing about Jobs quote, above, is that you could substitute "Microsoft Surface" in place of "netbooks" and it would be just as true. 

 

Somebody needs to slip this under Ballmer's car's windshield wiper blade.

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post #24 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


It's all semantics. No but you said how much more powerful a MBA is to the average netbook, and I compared the power between the iPhone and a Treo. While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" [MBA] is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word. Using that logic you should think tablet is a bad word considering all the crappy tablets (which were way worse than netbooks) that existed before the iPad.

 

I disagree with your statement that a 11" MBA is akin to a netbook, for this reason: A netbook was designed to be a limited utility computer made from the cheapest possible components. While a MBA of any screen size was optimized to be the thinnest and lightest weight laptop possible. That the two you mentioned, look quite similar from 100 meters distance is only a coincidence.

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post #25 of 76

I never understood the love for netbooks anyways. My laptop always came everywhere with me.

post #26 of 76
The Chromebook seems to be enjoying some popularity at least amongst an Android-centric crowd. I would certainly consider Chromebooks to be netbooks, in fact, Chromebooks may be the quintessential netbook. The Chromebook Pixel is an attempt to elevate public opinion about netbooks, otherwise the Chromebook is doomed to the same "make it up in volume" mentality. The challenge is that the only way to differentiate a product that is seen as manufactured by commodity brands is price. Ultimately no one wins the price war; not the companies, not the consumer.
post #27 of 76

Netbooks ended-up being caught between smartphones & pads / tablets as well as the low end normal laptops, all these 3 formats are better at what netbooks were mainly aimed at, 'net' access + Facebook & Twitter. These successful 3 formats are capable of a lot more.

 

The continuing netbook manufacturers, if there are any, may try to morph them into Google's Chromebook format, but I think that is doomed to oblivion too, as it is still a net based / browsing format. Who wants yet another thing to have & carry around when your phone, pad or laptop can do the job anyway?

 

As for being landfill, hopefully ex-owners of netbooks will hopefully think & recycle them for scrap. Then again they did buy netbooks. lol.gif

post #28 of 76

  Netbooks were great for filling the need to do what they can do for what they cost at a time when you couldn't do as well for just $400 and then $200.   There's still a market for a widget where anything above $300 is a dealkiller, and people have no delusions about what that will get them.   Asus and Acer and etc. could be making nice little useful netbooks for cheap but what I've pecked around on for the past year have pretty much been pretty unpleasant to use.  Doesn't have to be, but I guess that's that.  It's like they stopped actually checking to see if the end user experience was too not fun.   They had their run, but it wasn't as long as it looked like it would be when they were introduced, that's for sure.

 

  And, as typically, now that something else (tablets) is so popular, those companies are all chasing what someone else is setting the standard for and dropping the other balls, rather than be forward looking to create a new stage to set their own new standard on.   So they don't have the old balls or the future balls in the air, just the current ones, which are always playing catch up.   Most of them should cede the category they're not going to get and blow up some segment that Apple isn't interested in.

post #29 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

It's all semantics. No but you said how much more powerful a MBA is to the average netbook, and I compared the power between the iPhone and a Treo. While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word. Using that logic you should think tablet is a bad word considering all the crappy tablets (which were way worse than netbooks) that existed before the iPad.

'It's all semantics' is something people say when they realise they don't know what they're talking about. They'll just blame it on 'semantics' being misunderstood.

The rest of your post makes no sense. You are confusing netbook with notebook. Saying 'all tablets are crap' because there are crap tablets is not akin to saying 'all netbooks are crap.' The fact is, all netbooks ARE crap. As has been mentioned a netbook is a subcategory of notebooks. And to use your analogy, a netbook is a cheap plastic car whilst a MBA is a Ferrari.

Don't say 'using that logic...' when you haven't used any logic.
post #30 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post

The Chromebook seems to be enjoying some popularity at least amongst an Android-centric crowd. I would certainly consider Chromebooks to be netbooks, in fact, Chromebooks may be the quintessential netbook. The Chromebook Pixel is an attempt to elevate public opinion about netbooks, otherwise the Chromebook is doomed to the same "make it up in volume" mentality. The challenge is that the only way to differentiate a product that is seen as manufactured by commodity brands is price. Ultimately no one wins the price war; not the companies, not the consumer.

Low-performance
Inexpensive
OS and HW designed for the "net"

I would agree that Chromebooks are the quintessential netbook model since it encapsulates everything the netbooks tried to market toward with the added bonus of an OS that is actually what people want to do with it and can realistically do with the HW. I think Chrome OS is a smashing great idea. Most here hate it and oft complain that it's a web browser but I wonder if they also hate WebOS, which is the same concept with bot using WebKit as the UI. I only wish the power efficiency of the OS was much, much better.

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post #31 of 76

Slightly off topic, but just had a thought. If Apple have a problem in any country with the iPad name, maybe they should have it as the iPadlet in that country. Then it could unofficially be called the iPad as normal, much as in how the Mac was originally called the Macintosh but people just referred to it as the Mac. 1wink.gif

post #32 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by petrosy View Post

Netbooks were killed by Microsoft....forcing oems to install Windows over Linux and restricting screen sizes to 10in.

Basically held the industry to ransom...

ASUS seems to have gotten over it by slapping a touch screen onto their Netbook.

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post #33 of 76
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post
Sure they do. MBAs are netbooks done properly.
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post  While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word.

 

So you're implying it's screen size which defines whether a computer is a netbook or not; the 11" MBA spec is near identical to the 13" MBA.

 

So with this logic a Colt M16 assault rifle is a gun whilst a Colt M1911 Pistol is more akin to a potato spud gun, due to their similar size.


Edited by ChiA - 4/14/13 at 4:00am
post #34 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


ASUS seems to have gotten over it by slapping a touch screen onto their Netbook.

There's a brand new netbook sitting in it's original box on a shelf in my house, rejected by both my kids as being unusable. I can't even remember what brand it is (asus maybe). Its been sitting there for nearly two years. I thought of giving it away but it was so useless I always felt giving it away would be mean and not nice.

post #35 of 76
Odd. I've always thought it was sucking that killed them.
post #36 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The beauty of the iPad wasn't that it was faster, but that the HW was idealized for the form factor and the OS idealized for the HW. This is why it worked. 

 

 

This is so key, especially to point out why early and mid era PC netbooks were fighting a losing battle.   It's not that Windows is always a horrible place to be, but the versions of Windows on the low power, inexpensive netbooks was a horrible experience on that hardware.  Not made for each other at all and made you annoyed that neither the hardware maker nor Microsoft thought it was a bad idea.  Did they never try them?  Made you feel they didn't care.

 

I used a $350 Asus for loading photography and audio backups on the road for quite a while because I didn't feel the need to buy another MBP just for that at many times more (and MBAs were still too expensive then).  It was much tinier and lighter than my MBP and served it's purpose fine, but boy did I not enjoy using it.   Everything took four times longer to do on it than it should have, not because it was a slow machine but because there was nothing was idealized between the hardware and the OS and software.   If Microsoft had taken care of that single issue I would have been much less of a non-fan.

post #37 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by frxntier View Post

'It's all semantics' is something people say when they realise they don't know what they're talking about. They'll just blame it on 'semantics' being misunderstood.

The rest of your post makes no sense. You are confusing netbook with notebook. Saying 'all tablets are crap' because there are crap tablets is not akin to saying 'all netbooks are crap.' The fact is, all netbooks ARE crap. As has been mentioned a netbook is a subcategory of notebooks. And to use your analogy, a netbook is a cheap plastic car whilst a MBA is a Ferrari.

Don't say 'using that logic...' when you haven't used any logic.

I've used plenty. It's only been recently the there's been performance categories attached to names. People used laptops and notebooks interchangeably, there is no specific governing body authorized guidelines placed on what's a notebook and what's a ultrabook etc.. just a rule of thumb people go by which are semantics. They're all notebook computers.
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post #38 of 76

It's too bad. I LOVED the heck out my Samsung NC10 because it was so easy to carry around, had a long battery life, and was a fully functional computer. I finally had to give it up because it's Atom processor couldn't handle the newer webpages I need for my business, and I'd already become reliant on my 13" MBP for most things by that point.

 

The iPad is great and all, but it doesn't fully replace my netbook, even with a keyboard accessory because navigating it's OS requires touching the screen. Anytime I have to take my hands off the keys to execute something or switch apps, or even navigate within the app, it slows me down and it's not enjoyable or efficient. That's something I would like to see address in iOS 7: better integration with keyboard accessories.

post #39 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I've used plenty. It's only been recently the there's been performance categories attached to names. People used laptops and notebooks interchangeably, there is no specific governing body authorized guidelines placed on what's a notebook and what's a ultrabook etc.. just a rule of thumb people go by which are semantics. They're all notebook computers.

1) Right, all netbooks are notebook computers, but not all notebooks are netbooks. Let's remember that you started this by semantically placing the MBA in the netbook category for reasons that still remain unclear.

2) Would you call the 17" MBP a tower? Would you even call it a desktop even if that the place it's most likely used? It's unlikely to be used under a desk. If I started referring to my MBP as an All-In-One would you not think that's confusing? It's certainly more of an AIO than the iMac which needs peripherals attached just to use. So why aren't these terms merely semantic? Perhaps there are real reasons why we have categories; for instance, to help facilitate effective and efficient communication and knowledge.

3) The Homo sapiens sapiens Carl Linnaeus is rolling over in his grave right now. There are many, many governing bodies that specify names. There is even on (at least) dedicated to making sure no one else uses the name Ultrabook as it's a registered trademark of Intel.

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post #40 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

1) Right, all netbooks are notebook computers, but not all notebooks are netbooks. Let's remember that you started this by semantically placing the MBA in the netbook category for reasons that still remain unclear.

2) Would you call the 17" MBP a tower? Would you even call it a desktop even if that the place it's most likely used? It's unlikely to be used under a desk. If I started referring to my MBP as an All-In-One would you not think that's confusing? It's certainly more of an AIO than the iMac which needs peripherals attached just to use. So why aren't these terms merely semantic? Perhaps there are real reasons why we have categories; for instance, to help facilitate effective and efficient communication and knowledge.

3) The Homo sapiens sapiens Carl Linnaeus is rolling over in his grave right now. There are many, many governing bodies that specify names. There is even on (at least) dedicated to making sure no one else uses the name Ultrabook as it's a registered trademark of Intel.

No you're starting to compare apples and oranges when I was just comparing different types of apples, and ultimately you're free to call whatever anything you want and so am I.
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