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Shares of Apple sink after supplier Cirrus warns of weak results - Page 4

post #121 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by currentinterest View Post

It appears everyone is missing this statement, "The company, which makes energy and audio chips, notified investors that it would see lower shipments of a high-volume product as an unnamed customer migrates to a newer component from Cirrus." The emphasis should be on "migrates to a newer component," not reducing orders for existing component because of poor sales. I guess analysts don't read.

"as an unnamed customer migrates to a newer component from Cirrus"

 

That caugtht me eye as well.

post #122 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

The current generation of iWork is three years old, during which time MSFT has been doing a lot of development on Office (particularly the cloud component).  Is the product orphaned? Or what? Makes one pine for the days of Claris (since iWork is not a substantial revenue generator compared to, say, the iPhone, it is not getting much attention from the management, so spinning it out might fix that).

Please explain exactly what wonderful improvements there have been in Office during the past 3 years.

The only real difference is the cloud component - and iWork handles the cloud just fine.

So what's your point?
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post #123 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


So you think that Apple's YoY growth are really close together for the iPhone and iPad? No need to wait for the next quarter results, just go ahead and add up the unit sales for the last quarters and tell me if you see any difference between the two years.

 

Yeah, I do.  They will sell more units in the future if they introduce a cheaper phone, but going forward growth will slow substantially and the next two quarters will be particularly poor.  If you feel otherwise you should be ecstatic, you're getting shares at a deep discount.

 

I think Apple will be fine, but long term, absent a new product, the rapid growth phase is over so the share price will languish.

post #124 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

No I don't think so, I'm watching realtime

No, what I mean is that there was an upstairs trade in the morning, which somehow got stuck and got printed after the close.

Well if that were the case I'd want my money back. I think it might be a fat fingers trade which could possibly be undone later.

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post #125 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evilution View Post

So, Apple is dumping Cirrus and going elsewhere for their chips, Cirrus sell less chips and Apple stock falls.

No, I don't think this is the reason for the price drop. 

True or not, folks won't read it like that. They will read it as Cirrus sales are down because demand for Apple products is down. Which could be a little true since demand is generally lower post holiday. But the same folks won't be thinking that when they can be thinking the sky is failing cause Apple is old news and is losing to Android etc
post #126 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Yeah, I do.  They will sell more units in the future if they introduce a cheaper phone, but going forward growth will slow substantially and the next two quarters will be particularly poor.  If you feel otherwise you should be ecstatic, you're getting shares at a deep discount.

I think Apple will be fine, but long term, absent a new product, the rapid growth phase is over so the share price will languish.

1) Prove it. At least show me the unit numbers for the iPhone and iPad for the previous quarter results and the year before. If what you say is true then there will a minor change in the percentage of units sales YoY.

2) Deep discount? Because you think that selling more units means the stock will automatically go up? Look at their history (see point 1) and you'll see that despite breakneck sales and beating their own estimates the stock has gone both up and down.

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post #127 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

The bottom will be in when Tim Cook acts like a capable CEO and articulates a plan to grow earnings and play offense.  Until then nobody wants to touch the stock.

 

Cook said last quarter the analysts were wrong about supply chain data points and what they meant.  He said months ago they don't need the cash and were actively thinking about doing something with it.

 

Recent rumors are that not only did the analysts and supply chain checks have better insight into what was happening to sales and consumer demand shifts, but more recently the chatter is Apple still doesn't know what to do with the cash.

 

It will be comical and sad for the CEO of Apple to basically acknowledge on the call next week that analysts knew what was occurring before he did and that he still hasn't come up with a plan for the cash.  The floor will drop out if he says 'hey, you guys were right all along even though I said otherwise....sales are slowing.'  He will deserve every bit of criticism he'll get if he is indeed that much of a clown.

Well said.  Cook doesnt really inspire confidence, and given Apple's made him rich beyond most people's wildest dreams I have to wonder how much he cares.

post #128 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

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Originally Posted by mstone View Post

No I don't think so, I'm watching realtime

No, what I mean is that there was an upstairs trade in the morning, which somehow got stuck and got printed after the close.

Now we get this at Nasdaq:

 

 

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post #129 of 304
Attention Attention: The news of Apple's demise have been overly exaggerated. Please step away from the ledge.
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post #130 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post


The media needs to invent a reason for Apple’s spectacular drop.

The reason is the media. Well them and the analysts and the BS spewing. They need their hits so they will post anything in their blogs etc. even if it is total nonsense. And then when some fake product doesn't happen or the sales numbers don't match their far fetched junk they make up fake reasons for it rather than admit they were wrong.
post #131 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

This is actually not a bad idea at all! 

 

I mainly said it because Iger will soon be leaving Disney and he got along great with Steve (not to mention Iger is also on the Apple Board).


Edited by SpamSandwich - 4/17/13 at 2:07pm

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post #132 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.

 

If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.

 

As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.

 

With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks. 

post #133 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

The reason is the media. Well them and the analysts and the BS spewing. They need their hits so they will post anything in their blogs etc. even if it is total nonsense. And then when some fake product doesn't happen or the sales numbers don't match their far fetched junk they make up fake reasons for it rather than admit they were wrong.

Funny how you all love whenever Apple lies or misdirects the competition, but don't quite like it when the lies or misdirection affects Apple.
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post #134 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


1) Prove it. At least show me the unit numbers for the iPhone and iPad for the previous quarter results and the year before. If what you say is true then there will a minor change in the percentage of units sales YoY.

2) Deep discount? Because you think that selling more units means the stock will automatically go up? Look at their history (see point 1) and you'll see that despite breakneck sales and beating their own estimates the stock has gone both up and down.

1) The fact they went from unable to meet supply to having an 8? (might have been 6 and I dont feel like looking up the call) week back log in the pipeline in 3 months tells me all I need to know about sales and which direction they were headed.

 

2)  At this price if they beat on revenue and earnings the stock will without a doubt jump 10-15%, and my guess would trend upwards assuming guidance wasnt completely awful.  If you are telling me it's been at a 9 PE and didnt go up on a top and bottom line beat that would be news to me.  Why you would compare it to results at a different multiple, which is apparently what you are doing, is beyond me.

post #135 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks. 

Apple's portion of the overall Nasdaq is 12%. Many people have reasonably diversified Mutual Funds that include some AAPL or even just some Nasdaq and when AAPL is down it can pull those funds and the whole market down as well.

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post #136 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.

 

If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.

 

As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.

 

You're pretty much right on. Being a CEO at Apple requires a performer, in several senses of the word. They need both a person who is decisive and acts to continuously "guide" the story of Apple. They are like a stage actor... which is essentially the same function of the US president. Be confident. Tell the company's story. Fight for the company when necessary.

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post #137 of 304
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Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?

 

If we really knew, do you think we'd be sitting here instead of capitalizing on that information?

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post #138 of 304

I believe it will bottom when Tim Cook starts doing something to stop the fall.

post #139 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?

After hours is REALLY flat so barring any significant events overnight it looks like a flat open, but since tomorrow is in the future that is only a wild guess.

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post #140 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

This is actually not a bad idea at all! 

 

I mainly said it because Iger will soon be leaving Disney and he got along great with Steve (not to mention Iger is also on the Apple Board).

When he took over at Apple in 2005, the stock was in the mid-$20s. Now it's selling at over $60. The stock swooned a bit during the recession (to ~$16), but since then, it has been on a fairly steady upwards trajectory.

 

People seem to view him as a very effective CEO. He has managed the Pixar integration very well, and many analysts seem to think that Disney has its mojo back -- something that it had seriously lost during the disastrous Eisner era.

post #141 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by greendisease View Post

"who really cares about apple's share price"?

apple investors

If by investor you mean those that buy a stock wanting it to go up in price in a few months time so they can make a profit, yes.

That massive drop we saw was more about the profit seekers selling cause they figured it was as high as it would go for the moment so they make what money they can and then when the stock is crazy low again they start over.
post #142 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

A drop from a high of $705 to $397 today in such a short amount of time is extreme. I used to be a big Tim Cook supporter but he seems more suited to his former job than CEO.

What would you call a rise from $360 to $634 in 4 months and what would you claim about the CEO's performance at the time?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

short of a brand new product line with the success of the iPad or massively increased sales for current product lines like the iPhone which generates more than 50% of their revenue I don't see the stock breaking $500 again anytime soon.

What new product would you like that has the same 100m+/year sales potential as the iPad? How can they increase iPhone revenues without lowering the price?
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo 
do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?

Nobody will be able to tell when it will bounce back but it will bounce back eventually. Apple hasn't stopped selling products so eventually it will hit a price that is so low that people will want to buy and up it will go. Then Apple will have new products in the second half of the year and news will be more positive. It will swing up and down as time goes on and it will most likely stabilise around a certain range.
post #143 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

 

With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks. 

Not always true. Certainly not true if you're executing your strategy well, and communicating clearly with shareholders. Look at Google's price path during the past decade; or IBM's; or Qualcomm's.

 

Surely there will be hiccups, perhaps more so in tech, but what's happened with AAPL since last Sept is quite astounding, really. Especially when the rest of the market has been doing so well.

post #144 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Cook et. al are unknown quantities. They have to make their case to the market. The market needs to get a sense of who they are, what they stand for, and what their strategy is, going forward. Not platitudes like "we have an amazing pipeline."

The irony is that if Apple would to change their decade or so long practice of not preannouncing etc, many would spin it to say they are talking because they are scared. They need to tell everyone what they are planning to 'beat' the other boys to the market because of they wait everyone will buy whatever. Blah blah blah.
post #145 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfisher View Post

Ah, great post.

 

Apple is missing a tech visionary. Tim Cook is not a visionary.

 

No vision, no go.

 

Insanely great is now gone and the next insanely great leader for Apple needs to be found.

 

A tech leader and not a manager, like Tim. Although you need both.

Elon Musk? Imagine what Apple(cash)+Tesla+SpaceX could build together!!! 1biggrin.gif

post #146 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?

Rebound about 50% of the drop.  Maybe that is optimistic, but I put in a options "bet" buying the 400s and selling the $415s.  If it drops again I will do the same thing at reduced levels, if it is flat I will buy it back at a slight loss, and if it goes up as expected I will pocket the roughly 280% gain.  I'm pretty optimistic they will increase the dividend in May so I want to capture that with another bull call spread, but I dont think earnings will be good so leaning towards doing it after they announce.

post #147 of 304

Anyone mention Wolfson?

I think they are taking market share away from Cirrus' Apple account.

post #148 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post


Wait for the earnings. I got out of Apple and brought Intel and Tesla (and have done pretty well so far). I'm going to reevaluate Apple after the 23rd. If they announce a div hike or additional buyback, then it'll be time to buy.

Also bought Tesla a while ago....  Doing well...  It is one of the most shorted stocks on nasdaq the smart short sellers are starting to tip toe to the door (great sign...)

 

it is my greatest investment dream that Apple buys Tesla.  This gives them almost unlimited growth potential for the next 20 years and the ability to own a completely new market....

 

I use a simple approach to these kind of stocks.  I decide up front how much I am willing to lose on my bet (Yes all stocks are a bet).  I buy the stock and put in my panic limit sell order and watch what happens...  I generally win more often than I lose.  It is the ONLY gamble where you have at least a 50% chance to win....

 

You guy can rag me later if I lose...

 

However, if all else fails, listen to the "Experts" on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, Bloomburg, etc....  DO THE EXACT OPPSITE...  you win most of the time...

post #149 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

What would you call a rise from $360 to $634 in 4 months and what would you claim about the CEO's performance at the time?

I recall that people were giving him a lot credit for managing a tough transition superbly, and sent the stock up with high hopes for the future.

 

As he took credit on the upside, it is perfectly logical for investors to expect him to take the blame.

 

Btw, he does not have to do a whole lot. For starters, a massive repurchase and keeping those as treasury stock (thereby credibly signaling future confidence in Apple's future cash flow prospects by putting their money where their mouth is) will move the needle quite a bit. A board shake-up couldn't hurt. Just coming out and acknowledging the embarrassing stock price performance, and laying out a broad vision (it does not have to be by any means a specific roadmap) will be hugely helpful.

post #150 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by firhill07 View Post

I don't think has anything to do with Cirrus reports, especially when they claim that the "Supplier" had migrated to a newer component. Apple opened lower along with the market and this stupid news drove frantic investors to dump the stock as they could not take one more round of  blood bath. The support levels at $420 range were broken and that was enough for the downward spiral.

 

Now, for Apple's strategy with new product introduction, I think they have learnt their lesson to not announce it much ahead of the actual product being available as this has killed sales of current products. I think going forward, their strategy would be announce a new product and make it available in a very short period of time and perhaps they will also stop attaching number to iphone, such as 5s, 6 etc. It will simply be New iPhone and let the product speak for itself as to how new it is.

 

The stock is bound to make a come back later this year, and I believe that would happen with a new Product (perhaps an iWatch or an iWallet) that could eat into current payment processing markets. The opportunity is huge and Apple has the cash, technology and  user base.

 

But, then again, this is me being very optimistic about this company. If by October, they don't make a brand new product line announcement, or the stock hits $260 a share, I will dump the stock.

 

It has everything to do with the Cirrus report. When Cirrus announced the news yesterday, Apple dropped $1.5 in after hours trading. Knew it was going to be a bad day, turned out really bloody. And there was also a report from DigiTimes, saying that LG expect LCD panels build rate slowing ahead of a refresh, that iPad Mini units can drop by 30% in the June quarter.

 

The lesson Apple should have learnt from last year is not to pack product launches so close together. The traditional launch cycle has iMac in January, iPad in March, MacBook Pro/Mac Pro in June for WWDC, and iPhone in July - September. That keeps everyone talking about Apple all year long, rather than being overdosed on news about the iPhone and nothing for the next 8 months.


Edited by zoffdino - 4/17/13 at 2:40pm
post #151 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


The irony is that if Apple would to change their decade or so long practice of not preannouncing etc, many would spin it to say they are talking because they are scared. They need to tell everyone what they are planning to 'beat' the other boys to the market because of they wait everyone will buy whatever. Blah blah blah.

 

What frustrates me a lot is the slow speed that Apple responds to market changes. The market started to shift toward larger phones at the end of 2011. Like it or not, there are people who want bigger screens.Apple waited a year to introduce the iPhone 5, which became a tiny phone by then. Six months later, they still can't launch a bigger phone, or a cheaper one (as has been rumored for so long). Whether it's Ive holding back the design because it's not curved enough, or Cook unable to line up the suppliers, Apple has some problems with its speed to market. People are scared that Apple realizes things too late.

post #152 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Indeed and Mr. Market is saying that even with some of the most talented engineers in the world and more cash than they know what to do with, they can't pull it off.  All the resources, all the talent, no leader.  Its a shame.

 

Not that I completely agree with you, but Apple is really in the entertainment business, not the tech business. Jobs made the Apple presentations a worldwide phenomena and everyone talked about them. Tim Cook is like the poor guy that follows a hot comedian on stage with a solid, but not very memorable performance. Anything less than magic is a letdown for people. It's a very rough spot to be in.

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post #153 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post


I was thinking a rally tomorrow was well, wanted to see if my thinking was completely out of line. I was planning on a buy-write after earnings, but I haven't looked into the mini options yet.(not comfortable committing to 100 shares at this point)

 

Yeah, it's a lot of jack for 100 shares which is why I use spreads.  Good luck on the options play.  Depending on the size of the dividend increase I think it could see a considerable boost, especially if it's at or below this level.  Just something to consider.

post #154 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Said a different way, they went from being proactive to reactive.  Sign of fat, rich and happy management team.    No CEO should flip the bird at shareholders like Tim Cook has, mocking efforts some have made to increase value as 'silly.'  He is getting all the b*tch slapping he deserves and will continue to get hammered until he leaves tail between his legs and shamed.

 

Cook is certainly not "flip(ing) the bird at shareholders". Heck, I still don't think Apple should've offered a dividend. If people don't want to invest in Apple, too bad for them. Giving into Wall Street demands takes the emphasis off of creating the world's most desirable tech and onto the desires of bean counters and short-term, spineless short-term "investors" and weasel "analysts".

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post #155 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

The bottom will be in when Tim Cook acts like a capable CEO and articulates a plan to grow earnings and play offense.  Until then nobody wants to touch the stock.

Cook said last quarter the analysts were wrong about supply chain data points and what they meant.  He said months ago they don't need the cash and were actively thinking about doing something with it.

Recent rumors are that not only did the analysts and supply chain checks have better insight into what was happening to sales and consumer demand shifts, but more recently the chatter is Apple still doesn't know what to do with the cash.

It will be comical and sad for the CEO of Apple to basically acknowledge on the call next week that analysts knew what was occurring before he did and that he still hasn't come up with a plan for the cash.  The floor will drop out if he says 'hey, you guys were right all along even though I said otherwise....sales are slowing.'  He will deserve every bit of criticism he'll get if he is indeed that much of a clown.
What hard evidence do we have that the WSJ rumors from last quarter were accurate? Rumors on top of rumors mean nothing to me. Now if Apple reports weaker than expected iPhone sales next week then yeah maybe they were right and Cook was blowing smoke. But until then they're just rumors to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
post #156 of 304

Fact is people, at least some people, wish to have a revolution every six month!

 

I think it's the end of a cycle, of a business logic. Apple is rethinking its strategy and they need some time to do it.  

post #157 of 304

Does anyone remember how long we had to wait for the "White" Iphone?  Jobs was never satisfied with the quality so it got postponed again and again.  I was in the Apple Store the other day (before today's drop!) and asked an employee about the stock price, as I think most employees hold some stock.  He sort of rolled his eyes and said that's wall street.  Then we spoke of the new apple TV.  He intimated that Apple just won't release any new product until they are absolutely satisfied with it's quality.  And it did remind me of the White Iphone, which at the time made me nuts since I had to wait over a year for it.  But my white iphone is perfect, and was worth the wait, and the quality of the color has held up to lot's of abuse.  So here's hoping something has been postponed because the people Jobs trained and worked with are not completely satisfied.  

post #158 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Well said.  Cook doesnt really inspire confidence, and given Apple's made him rich beyond most people's wildest dreams I have to wonder how much he cares.
What evidence do we have that Tim is motivated by money? It's not like he's out there spending millions on yachts and islands ala Larry Ellison. We don't know much about Cook but the little we do know indicates someone whose life revolves around Apple and not much else. I've heard he's in the office at 5 am and is usually one of the last to leave. I don't think dedication to Apple is a problem.
post #159 of 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

Said a different way, they went from being proactive to reactive.  Sign of fat, rich and happy management team.    No CEO should flip the bird at shareholders like Tim Cook has, mocking efforts some have made to increase value as 'silly.'  He is getting all the b*tch slapping he deserves and will continue to get hammered until he leaves tail between his legs and shamed.

Here's another gem. Does anyone believe this guy that he has his fortune tied to Apple's stock value? That he just loves his Apple products?

He is drooling over his vision of Apple's destruction. Fake fake fake.
post #160 of 304

Uhhhhhmmmm, buy Cirrus?

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