Originally Posted by Apple ][
I'm not looking to capture the absolute bottom. I need confirmation of an uptrend and there is definitely no signs of that yet. The only trend on AAPL's chart is down. I'm not a chart statistician, and I don't even play one on the internet, but there are various signs to look for.
There is no such thing as "confirmation of an uptrend", regardless of what the internet chartists tell you. Just when you think you have confirmation, the trend you think is confirmed can be broken, and will do so 50% of the time, in general. News or rumors appear, and the trend is broken. Such things are NOT predicted by the charts. Sure, one can go back and find a way to retroactively extend a really old portion of the chart in a manner that seems to predict a later portion of the chart. But what you need to understand is that the wiggles and fractal-like nature of the trace always allow you to find SOMETHING that seems to be causal when it is not. Extending trends, etc, to the FUTURE and banking on these is a fool's game.
The bottom line is that if charts really were reliably predictive, you would find a lot more people who got wealthy by using them. But the world's top 100 investors are known for other approaches (i.e. actual investment, not chart trading). Meanwhile, I have seen plenty of internet chartists making predictions based on this pattern, that pattern, or this trendline, or that Fibonacci line, etc, etc, etc... but they ultimately prove wrong as often as right, and they pay dearly for it.
You are much better off with a Buffett-like long term horizon. Buy when others are fearful. And do so for a fundamental reason (not just because others are fearful... their reasons may be sound). Sell for a fundamental reason too, not JUST because you have lost some money and are afraid. Buffett himself stays out of investing in consumer electronics companies, because he confesses that he doesn't understand the dynamics there. Smart man. Invest in what you understand. General rule: sell a stock when there is something better you could be doing with the money. Transferring it somewhere else only because you feel stung is a BAD thing. You end up selling low and buying high... the opposite of what should be. Of course if one bought the stock for flighty reasons to begin with, well, they're already in a bad place. I guess they might as well sell if it make themselves feel safer. Their mistake was buying without conviction and a good reason for it.
My current sentiment: based on Apple's fundamental valuation today and their excellent opportunity for growth in emerging markets (iPhone on China Mobile, or cheaper iPhone, etc) and their imminent disruption of more marketplaces, I would say now is an unbelievable opportunity to buy and reap the rewards a few years from now. And don't get shaken is some knee-jerk short-term chartists send it down in the meantime.
Tangent: anybody that believes innovation is dead at Apple just because Steve is gone and because Apple hasn't brought a new groundbreaker out for a few years (e.g. Rocco Pendola) needs to have their head examined for logic. It has always been Apple's way (even under Steve) to take the time to get their new hardware endeavors fully baked, so that they can "wow" the customer. And the size of the "wow" is generally in proportion to the time it takes to bring it out.
BAsed on Jobs' remarks before his death, Cook's remarks after, and Jony Ive's answer in an interview last year that he was currently working on the most important thing he's ever done, I'd say that it is only a matter of time before Apple drops a huge bomb on some market. (Most likely TV/entertainment.) Certainly people don't think that Jony is going to call an upgrade to an existing product the "most impoprtant thing he's ever done.
Get ready for the bomb. Buy in before it happens. Hold unless something other than nervous-nellies takes down the stock.
Remember, if they are going into a completely new field, Apple does not necessarily have to hold announcement until it is ready and the rumors have already surfaced.