I don't understand how so many people can think that the AAPL decline isn't expected and/or that the stock isn't still overvalued.
If you were to try and think of one company that might have its stock price inflated by company "fans" and/or amateur investors looking for the "next big company", I think 99.9% of people would think of AAPL.
Honestly, did you all think that apple was worth more than every non-state oil company in the world? I'm no investor myself, but that always seemed ridiculous to me - those are companies who have no real competitors, whose product is guaranteed to rise in value in the future, and whose product will never be replaced by a "better" product in our lifetimes.
Also, as soon as Apple became "the biggest company in the world", you also had to expect that a bunch more idiots would gobble up stock because it was a "sure investment" because bigger is somehow better. I highly doubt any experienced/smart investors bought Apple when it starting passing Shell Oil and Exxon; it just doesn't make any sense.
I look at Microsoft's value when it was at it's absolute peak of dominance (and overinflated stock prices), installed on something like 90% of computers in the world in 1999, when personal computers were still a huge growth market and then see Apple pass those levels with, what 25% of smartphone sales, 50% of tablet sales and maybe 5% of global PC sales, and really there's no way I can see the Apple market cap being anywhere near realistic, even though Apple's profit margins are much higher than Microsofts have ever been. In '99, Microsoft was profiting on almost every computer sold (with no real competitors) at a time when global market penetration of computers was still growing exponentially. Compare that to Apple nowadays, with a thin sliver of PC sales in an industry that is stagnating, a non-dominant share of smart-phones, which is a segment with slowing sales the past 2 years, and a major share in Tablets, which is really an unknown in terms of future value. Nothing suggests Apple should be worth more than Exxon to me.
Do you understand any of the numbers here?: