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Google's Android has flatlined in the U.S. as Apple's iPhone steals all growth

post #1 of 118
Thread Starter 
Smartphone sales at AT&T and Verizon Wireless over the past two years show that Android isn't growing in the U.S. and that all new growth is coming from Apple's iPhone.


Source: ben-evans.com


A report by Benedict Evans highlights the clearly evident trends among American iPhone carriers (above).

Android is a commodity sale



Evans also drew attention to the cyclical nature of iPhone sales, which peaked at both AT&T and Verizon after the launch of the iPhone 4S in 2011 and the iPhone 5 last fall. Android phones aren't doing that, however.

Instead, as Evans noted, "there's near-zero seasonality in Android phone sales. People decide they want a phone and go out and buy whatever's in the shop at the time that looks good. Launches of 'hero' Android phones appear to have no impact at all - they may take share from other Androids, but not from iPhone and they don't increase overall sales."

There's not even an apparent correlation between iPhone peaks and Android sales; "It looks like a new iPhone launch doesn't tempt in Android buyers at all," Evans stated.

Android buyers are upgrading to iPhones



At the same time, Evans notes that there is real churn among Android buyers, many of whom are upgrading from basic feature phones. There's also no shortage of buyer intention surveys that indicate that first time Android users plan to upgrade to iPhones in the future, indicating that Google's platform is functioning like training wheels for the iPhone.

In an earlier post, Evans calculated that "a little over 90% of the current Android base got its first Android in the last 2 years, and 68% of the iPhone base its first iPhone."

He added, "It'll be interesting to see what their second purchase is."

That's why Verizon upgraded to iPhone in 2010



Google's platform was met with unbridled enthusiasm, particularly once Verizon Wireless abandoned BlackBerry and threw its support behind Android at the end of 2009 with its Droid ad campaign.

Verizon shifted its marketing efforts from BlackBerry to focus on Android because RIM was unable to deliver a phone that could compete against the iPhone. The 2008 holiday season's BlackBerry Storm had been a particularly bad launch for the carrier.

Android wasn't keeping up with iPhone sales


Before 2010 was out, it was clear that Android was not doing for Verizon what the iPhone had done for AT&T. Verizon subsequently agreed to begin selling a new CDMA iPhone 4 in early 2011, and since then, its smartphone growth has, like AT&T, come from strong iPhone sales.
post #2 of 118

lol, stock price.

post #3 of 118
I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.
post #4 of 118

Another great? article by Deadhead

post #5 of 118

But, but openness, or freedom or something.

post #6 of 118
Another portent of Apple's doom. 1rolleyes.gif
post #7 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post

I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.

The chart clearly shows Apple's YoY considerably higher. It's foolish to look at the quarter just after a holiday and compare it to a holiday. You either don't understand how to read the chart or you're deliberately being obtuse. Which one is it or do you want to still contend that Android isn't flat and that iOS isn't higher than Android according to the graph for a given carrier?

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post #8 of 118
In my experience over the years, folks that bought Android phones as their first smartphone immediately become disenchanted by them for numerous reasons from battery life, cheap quality, complexity, instabilities, pick one...

When they see my iPhone and see how polished it is both in terms of physical build-quality and the simplicity/smoothness of iOS they are sold. Most have abandoned Android.

Android is so overrated. It seems to cater to several demographics:
- 1st-time buyers looking for a cheap, smartphone with price being their only consideration.
- Individuals that want an open, infinitely-customizable smartphone and have way too much time on their hands. They will customize their smartphone so much, no one else will be able to figure out how to make a phone call on it.
- iHaters that want nothing to do with Apple simply because of a false-belief that Apple is more "evil" than the numerous Android handset makers like Samsung whose CEO is a convicted criminal, and Google that has cleverly masqueraded their "open and free" OS as a way to covertly gather as much information on you, the product, and sell "you" to the highest bidder.
post #9 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The chart clearly shows Apple's YoY considerably higher. It's foolish to look at the quarter just after a holiday and compare it to a holiday. You either don't understand how to read the chart or you're deliberately being obtuse. Which one is it or do you want to still contend that Android isn't flat and that iOS isn't higher than Android according to the graph for a given carrier?



Don't expect him to answer.  Your observation of the faults in his rant pretty much says it all.

post #10 of 118

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/23/13 at 2:34pm
post #11 of 118
Azreospecialist.....I don't think you read the article fully. The article is pretty clear and concise, and backs up the main idea with charts.

The chart you're referring to shows the seasonality of sales that come with each new iPhone launch, explained by the buying behavior of iPhone buyers vs. android buyers.

Most iPhone buyers wait until the new model is out, and then buy en masse. Most android buyers look at their phone as a commodity, and buy whenever they feel like. Hence the peaks and valleys.

The chart shows clearly that even during the "valley" of iPhone sales, that they are still outselling android.

Your comment is a worthless and shoddy piece of "commenting" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete understanding of the article.
post #12 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post

I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.
........

You miss that very first sentence?

"Evans also drew attention to the cyclical nature of iPhone sales, which peaked at both AT&T and Verizon after the launch of the iPhone 4S in 2011 and the iPhone 5 last fall."

 

Those peaks are the cyclical nature of iPhone sales that was being noted. Holdiay quarter versus the one following is the usual behavior for Apple, they are a very hot holiday item.

post #13 of 118

I still don't get why there isn't a thumbs down feature here. It is so unrealistic and not very natural to not have a thumbs down feature.

 

And there is a definitely a post in this thread that I would give a thumbs down to, if such an option existed.

post #14 of 118
I'd like to see regional charts throughout the major markets in the world. More telling than just the US market.
post #15 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?

 

Elsewhere on Evans' site:

 

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases

 

That's a lot of training wheels

post #16 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post

I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.

I hate to say this but you really have no clue. You could easily have said, iPhone sales peaked in Dec 2011 and then slumped in the following quarter before again peaking in Dec 2012 quarter. On AT&T there is no point since Mar 2011 all other smartphones (Android, WM, WP, BB) have outsold just the iPhone. On Verizon, the trend for all other smartphones is flat since Mar 2011 and climbing steadily with a very season bump for the Dec quarter.  The most recent quarter showed the iPhone activating 25% MORE units than the Y ago quarter. Only a blind fool would call this "slumping".

post #17 of 118

What's shocking to me is how there's no "bump" with an Android new product intro -- such as the SG3 -- in either ATT or VZW's graphs. Compare that to the massive spike when a new iPhone is introduced! Shocking, because one would not get that impression reading the tech news.

 

It's no wonder that these weasels don't put out actual shipment volumes or sales numbers.

 

Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!lol.gif


Edited by anantksundaram - 4/18/13 at 1:29pm
post #18 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?

 

Elsewhere on Evans' site:

 

Quote:
On average, mobile phones are replaced every 24 months. So trailing 24m sales are a pretty good proxy for the install base. On that basis, at the end of 2012 the Android install base was about 675m, and the iPhone base was about 230m.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases

Yeah, all those cheap-o, low-margin Android junk sold in India and China. Who cares. Those will blown away with China Mobile and Apple's India push. A substantial portion of the extra hundreds of millions is toast.

 

As an aisde, note how Evans also points out (in the first para of his blog, no less): "Apple discloses these numbers so you can just work them out".

 

You Androiders just make up yours.

post #19 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!lol.gif

 

Because Android isn't doing all that great in most civilized countries, like the US.

 

Android does well in countries where people can barely afford to feed their children.

post #20 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What's shocking to me is how there's no "bump" with an Android new product intro -- such as the SG3 -- in either ATT or VZW's graphs. Compare that to the massive spike when a new iPhone is introduced! Shocking, because one would get that impression reading the news.

It's no wonder that these weasels don't put out actual shipment volumes or sales numbers.

Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!lol.gif

There may be, but we can't see it. We have to consider that other smartphone lumps in everything else so if either iOS or Android pull from other vendors that use other mobile OSes on smartphones Android would have to counter that just to stay flat. That said, if we were to pull Android out of the bunch we also get smaller values for Android; and looking at the chart we'd need another one in 100k increments to see when and where Android has spiked.

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post #21 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?

 

Elsewhere on Evans' site:

 

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases

You missed this part also on the site:

 

"Of course, this ignores switching between the platforms, for which there is no good data, but a lot of it will net out. It also ignores people buying a new phone every year - but also people who are still on 3 or 4 year old phones - but these are buried in the average. The number of people selling their iPhone to buy a new one every year is the big variable here. "
 
Given I know every previous iPhone I have had (a 3GS, 4, 4S) is still in use, I think this is a HHHUUUUGGGGEEEE variable on his installed base.  So huge, in fact, to make his estimate laughable.  Likewise, if his installed base is anywhere close to true, it puts usage data between the two platforms in even more stark contrast. Android 2X the users 1/3 the web presence. Android 2X the users 1/5-1/4 the developer revenue.
post #22 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post

I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

 

Hmmm- sounds like we touched a raw nerve here. 

 

Is this poster blind and unable to read the article he's commenting on? As pointed out above, iPhone sales peak after new model introductions, suggesting that people are actually excited by and interested in said new model, while for Android, folks apparently just pick whatever model is available at the time their contract is up. While down from the Christmas season, it appears that Verizon iPhone sales are up Y/Y, while Android sales are, well, flat. iPhone and Android sales _last year_ at this time were indeed "neck and neck", but this year iPhone is clearly ahead.

 

The US is not the world, but there is all sorts of evidence that Apple is winning the US smartphone market, no matter how much that may bother you.

post #23 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I still don't get why there isn't a thumbs down feature here. It is so unrealistic and not very natural to not have a thumbs down feature.

 

And there is a definitely a post in this thread that I would give a thumbs down to, if such an option existed.


Yea, I'd like to do that to the very first post too.

post #24 of 118

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/23/13 at 2:34pm
post #25 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

[...]

Android is so overrated. It seems to cater to several demographics:
- 1st-time buyers looking for a cheap, smartphone with price being their only consideration.
- Individuals that want an open, infinitely-customizable smartphone and have way too much time on their hands. They will customize their smartphone so much, no one else will be able to figure out how to make a phone call on it.
- iHaters that want nothing to do with Apple simply because of a false-belief that Apple is more "evil" than the numerous Android handset makers like Samsung whose CEO is a convicted criminal, and Google that has cleverly masqueraded their "open and free" OS as a way to covertly gather as much information on you, the product, and sell "you" to the highest bidder.

 

You missed one:

 

- People for whom a smartphone is not a status symbol, part of a larger "eco-system" or a large enough part of their lives to warrant spending a lot of money.

 

I know people who use their Android phone for email, SMS, voice calls, navigation and games who are perfectly happy. I know of two who perceive the larger screen of their Galaxy as having more value for them than the sharper screen of the iPhone would. A couple of them know that the iPhone is "better" but don't care. They also know that a Merc is better than a Toyota, but the Toyota meets their modest needs at a lower price. Finally, there's the case of the person who found the perfect service package from a carrier who doesn't sell iPhones. That person chose a Galaxy because the terms of the plan mattered more than the device used to exploit it.

 

You can make all kinds of arguments for the advantages of an iPhone, but to denigrate those who choose something else for any of many perfectly valid reasons might be construed as snobbish.


Edited by v5v - 4/18/13 at 2:09pm
post #26 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

And yet AppleInsider publishes Android numbers anyway....

AI publishes other people's numbers. They also report when someone is bearish on Apple.

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post #27 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What's shocking to me is how there's no "bump" with an Android new product intro -- such as the SG3 -- in either ATT or VZW's graphs.
I think that is actually pretty easily explained; no one model dominates the broader android market, so even if its followers double the regular sales rate it is only a 10-20% bump to the overall numbers. The bump also subsides much faster, so it just becomes noise in quarterly data.

I wonder what it would take for Apple to replicate their success in the US in some of the other larger markets. Does it come down to first-mover advantage in a given market?
post #28 of 118
Lots wrong with the chart. For starters, it just looks at the two largest carriers in the US who charge the most for service, and frankly if you don't mind dropping $100 a month on your cell service, you're also probably in the market for the iphone as well.

Worldwide across all carriers, its about even with android doing much better than the iphone in low cost carriers and in less developed nations.

Not really sure what kind of story the writer was trying to tell unless it was just the usual "how do I spindle the data to 'prove' that the iphone is more popular than the other guys". What was proven here is that in the US, among the two most expensive carriers, that for the time frame measured those two companies sold more iphones than android phones.

During the 3rd quarter of 2011, more blue rapapangas were sold than red ones in the province of capascapia. Pretty much equally meaningful.
post #29 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq2 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post

I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

Is this poster blind and unable to read .....

He's an Androider lurking around in an Apple forum. What do you expect?

post #30 of 118

deleted


Edited by MacRulez - 7/23/13 at 2:34pm
post #31 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
As an aisde, note how Evans also points out (in the first para of his blog, no less): "Apple discloses these numbers so you can just work them out".

 

You Androiders just make up yours.

And yet AppleInsider publishes Android numbers anyway....

Agree. AI, unfortunately, wants/likes your eyeballs. Makes more money for them.....

post #32 of 118
Numbers don't surprise me. Wonder where all the doom sayers from yesterday are?
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post #33 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

You missed one:

- People for whom a smartphone is not a status symbol, part of a larger "eco-system" or a large enough part of their lives to warrant spending a lot of money.

I know people who use their Android phone for email, SMS, voice calls, navigation and games who are perfectly happy. I know of two who perceive the larger screen of their Galaxy as having more value for them than the sharper screen of the iPhone would. A couple of them know that the iPhone is "better" but don't care. They also know that a Merc is better than a Toyota, but the Toyota meets their modest needs at a lower price. Finally, there's the case of the person who found the perfect service package from a carrier who doesn't sell iPhones. That person chose a Galaxy because the terms of the plan mattered more than the device used to exploit it.

You can make all kinds of arguments for the advantages of an iPhone, but to denigrate those who choose something else for any of many perfectly valid reasons might be construed as snobbish, rude, or even insulting.

Actually, the arguements were never about a single person's choice on the matter. It became more of a discussion of how can Andriod/Google claim that they are ahead/winning/etc. when the sales numbers do not reflect that. Also, these graphs were about the two largest national carriers (Verizon and AT&T), and correlating that to how the nation probably behaves. It is a good correlation just because of the sheer number of people/sales there were.

That said, I find it more telling that the sum of the two sets of data (iPhone AT&T+Verizon versus Android AT&T + Verizon), the iPhone appeared to sell more every single time.

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post #34 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

It may well be that that Apple's numbers are as low as you suggest. 

I don't have any firm data on that myself, so we'll have to rely on the outside world for guidance on overall market share:

Worldwide (IDC) - Android 68.8%, iOS 18.8%
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/14/tech/mobile/smartphone-sales-apple-android

Worldwide (Strategy Analytics) - Android 68.4%, iOS 22%
http://betanews.com/2013/01/28/android-stomps-all-over-ios/

US (Kantar) - Android 51.2%, iOS 43.5%
http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/Android-Sprint-and-Samsung-Increased-Share-In-Early-2013/

Frankly it's amazing that a single vendor whose cheapest model is $450 (which doesn't include tariffs and other costs for other countries) can have such a huge percentage throughout the world. This just shows how popular iOS is, not that it's doing poorly.

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post #35 of 118

No, no, no, no, no...

 

...Android is winning, eleventy billions of acts-vites every minute.

 

A source in the Android Astroturfer's office just sent me one of their motivational posters:-

 

 

 

Apple is domed.

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post #36 of 118
post #37 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheElectricChairRepairman View Post

I'd like to see regional charts throughout the major markets in the world. More telling than just the US market.

 

From the last world comparison I saw, right when the iPhone 5 came out (if anyone has later, please post)...

 

The US looked like this:

 

The UK and Australia looked like this:

 

Most of the EU looked like this:

 

And here was China:

 

post #38 of 118
I remember when Android forums were filled with stories like this, in which data was used or massaged to paint a brighter picture than reality suggested. Then Android evolved. Phones started to be released that could compete with the iPhone, and Android started gaining real traction beyond being the "poor man's smartphone." All of a sudden, postings like this started to disappear, and Android owners didn't feel like they had to support their choice in smartphone with sales reports and crowd-bashing of the other platforms. Funny how the tables turn.

The iPhone is a great phone, perfect for a lot of people. But to claim that the current iteration of Android is inferior to iOS and that there's no phone that can match the iPhone experience in today's market is just plain denial.
Edited by rmcray08 - 4/18/13 at 1:58pm
post #39 of 118

There are over a hundred cellular service providers in the US. Only counting the top 5 carriers other than VZ and ATT, they have about 100M subscribers combined. This number can be compared to about 200M for VZ and ATT combined. The other 100 carriers in the US probably sell nothing but Android phones so looking at a chart that only considers the numbers for VZ and ATT is a bit misleading regarding how many Androids are actually being sold within the US.

 

The demographics information would be more important though because it would most likely indicate factors such as median income, education, and geographic location which I am confident would show iPhone as more popular among the higher income/education segment as well as more popular in larger metropolitan areas.

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post #40 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post

 

I don't have any firm data on that myself, so we'll have to rely on the outside world for guidance on overall market share:

 

Worldwide (IDC)

Worldwide (Strategy Analytics

US (Kantar

All bogus 'estimates.'

 

ATT's and VZW's are actuals. And they control 70% of the US market. 

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