Originally Posted by Apple ][
The iPad is just killing everything else out there, and it's been doing so since day one.
I still think that somebody has to be batshit insane to buy any other tablet. Either that or they are extremely poor, in which case, they probably shouldn't be buying any tablet at all. Other things, like food and shoes on their feet should be more of a priority, in my humble opinion. The entry price of $329 (or even cheaper, if you can find a good sale like at Walmart or someplace like that) is a damn cheap price to be able to get an iPad and enter the Apple ecosystem. It's the only one that counts and it's where all of the premium apps are being released.
Buying any other tablet besides an iPad is like stocking up on Confederate currency just prior to the civil war.
There are ways to argue the phone market, e.g., as I constantly post, I want a larger screen iPhone with more optional device and file access for those who want to turn it on, cellcos like pushing Android phones for their own reasons, a robust app market has grown up, Google has some good services (at the price of your demographic soul, but nonetheless), there are a ton of form factors, skins, keyboards (Swype is pretty cool, e.g.), etc...
...But Apple still - on merit and ecosystem - OWNS the tablet market by every relevant metric.
Originally Posted by Slurpy
This is a complete slaughter. Keep in mind that amazon is selling their tablets near or at cost, as a gateway to their services. Remember all the fear mongering when the new Kindles were shown off, and how so many were predicting the iPad was in big trouble because of the low prices? What do you know, people are still preferring to buy more expensive tablets (the iPad) so I guess price doesnt always win out.
But hey, at least Amazon has second place at just over 7% . Certainly doing better than Samsung at a dismal 4%. Winning. And then you have the Nexus, which everyone (well, maybe Google fans) was shrieking would take a big slice of Apple's pie, being the best Android tablet and all, at an earth shattering 1.7%, the market share equivalent to a rounding error. I guess the mini pretty much stomped that product deep into the ground.
Given the stark app ecosystem differences there is NO rational reason to own an Android tablet - an original iPad offers more useful value than the latest Android. The only possible exception is Amazon's fork - good for media consumption/general buying for Amazonians and good specs for the price.
[The story also doesn't say if Kindle's part of Amazon's 7% - because that's basically a different beast with a good legit niche market for readers. And is cheap enough to be many people's reading only second semi-tab.]
Windows is another story long-term because of the big business market (and their deep pockets). If Windows 8.1 and RT 8.1 follow MS's historical pattern of "third time may not be the charm, but sucks a lot less," they will start to clean up the mess of the first release and the third release will be decent.
- The pattern: DOS was crap through 3.1, same with Windows - no real uptake until 3.1. Win 95 needed a rev or two (then stepped backwards with ME), Win XP took three service packs, and Vista was bailed out by Win 7. The only exception was Win NT for professional applications. IT pros liked it right away still talk about it fondly.
And lots of IT people today are hoping that MS's tabs and phones become competitive and enterprise worthy. MS is still (I believe) paying developers to port and write "Modern UI" apps.
Full Office - along with hooks to the MS server and middleware infrastructure (most of which are also built into iPads - but not, I think, Androids) are another plus in the Enterprise market's eye - and none of the competitors play in the server and middleware space. So MS could claw their way to 10-20% of the US tab unit market in 3-5 years. And that might not be the ultimate ceiling - e.g., X-Box does well and MS is trying to extend features of that ecosystem to other devices - and the Apple exec suite could go through a period of instability.
- A big Apple shakeup is not likely, but also not impossible. The current Apple product and management line-up is running on momentum already built - and so this year's product releases - and even more so, next year's - will tell the tale on whether post-Jobs Apple under the current team is still an execution and innovation machine.
But if Apple figures out where the puck is going by then and changes the game again, then my MS estimate will prove overly optimistic. I do believe, though, that if not in phones, MS will remain at least competitive with Android tablets for the reasons already given.
10-20% is also about I think Android's upper limit (in tab $$ sales and as with phones maybe 20-33% of device share around the world based on limited incomes in many countries) in the same time frame unless Apple jumps the shark, Samsung (or HTC) has a useful original thought... ...or something else I'm missing. I just don't hear about the true and competitive tab apps coming, there's no institutional constituency in the biz market, the cellcos have less incentive to push 'em, OS fragmentation, forking issues, etc.
So allowing for that (significant) growth in the competition would still leave Apple with around 50-60% unit share, 60-70% gross sales share and 70-80% profit share in the 2016-18 time frame. Not to mention dominant sales and profits in the app market and maybe able to keep their lead in media sales - all with a cut for them.
I think they can make a decent living on that - along with keeping growing PC marketshare in that shrinking segment, staying a major phone competitor, doing well in the living room and creating at least one more disruptive device.