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LG Display's profits grow, but reports cite 'weakened' demand for Apple's iPhone & iPad - Page 2

post #41 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

You are correct that I am sensitive to this, since I have been trying to do the same. I actually own and use apple products (there are about five of them on my desk right now), and I also own Apple stock (something that has not brought me much happiness lately) , which is why I would rather Apple were managed intelligently. At the moment it is not, as shown by the deep observation that it has lost 30% of the stock price (market adjusted) in the last year or so. Despite your views that this is a criminal cabal trying to screw your beloved gadget maker, that's not how the world works -- the market is losing confidence in the management and voting with its wallet DESPITE the good numbers, which leaves fundamentals investors like myself, David Einhorn, and (I am guessing) jdnc123 flummoxed: it feels wrong to sell the stock, but every day you get punished for holding it.

 Do you get it? No, I didn't think so.

Hey, you said you are part of a criminal cabal, I didn't. (Just kidding.)

I just think you guys are playing hardball FUD mongering against Apple for money.

If i'm wrong, my apologies.

It's not about anybody's beloved gadget maker. It's about whether an American company can win by doing a good job in a new technology industry while still being good global citizens.

The corollary is that they are going up against established businesses that aren't such good global citizens. It's a struggle with epic, mythic, overtones, so there is a fan base cheering them on and taking it very personally. These are your "KoolAid" drinkers, like me. I hate to see the good side lose because the other side plays unfairly, with lies and creepy propaganda.

Edit: added "Just kidding"; I see you took out the KoolAid reference.
Edited by Flaneur - 4/22/13 at 9:43am
post #42 of 65
Whether Apple had a good quarter or not we'll all see for sure tomorrow.
post #43 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

... I would rather Apple were managed intelligently. At the moment it is not, as shown by the deep observation that it has lost 30% of the stock price ...

 

This is poor reasoning.  In the short run the stock market resembles an overly emotional adolescent, not some genius, efficient price-calculating machine.  The same adolescent pushed the price to $700 then down to $400.  Apple and its management are rational and patient; the market is emotional and knee-jerk.

post #44 of 65
On the front page of Yahoo finance is a headline blaring: Bracing For Disaster; How Low Will Apple's earning be. The hyperbole has now reached ridiculous levels. And it seems not an hour of the day goes by without someone pushing out negativity. Honestly is there anything Apple has done to warrant all this negativity, and downright hate in some quarters?
post #45 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

There was a couple of upgrades in the mix of downgrades today.  The pressure has been unrelenting of late, maybe a seller or two took the day off.  Some could be speculating on an announcement on the cash balance (although others feel nothing will be announced),   Buyside has to start thinking sellside cuts getting close to baked in.  Maybe the market believes Cook will actually appear credible, in charge and articulate a plan.  Just the calm before the storm?
So what exactly was Cook when the market was running the stock up to $700? What has Cook done differently now than he did last spring/summer?
post #46 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

You obviously haven't read what I said before: the stock is up because the bad news is baked into the price, or so people think, so they think that the only surprise could be to the upside (but it is not up a lot, so people are obviously quite wary).
But the bad news wasn't baked into the price last week when there was a big sell off? Seems to me bad news was baked into the price a long time ago.
post #47 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

This is poor reasoning.  In the short run the stock market resembles an overly emotional adolescent, not some genius, efficient price-calculating machine.  The same adolescent pushed the price to $700 then down to $400.  Apple and its management are rational and patient; the market is emotional and knee-jerk.

Thank you. To suggest that Apple is not being managed intelligently in the face of the propaganda campaign against it is scurrilous. Or insane

The loss of Apple's value on the market is all psychological. Not partly—all. Some of the market's nervousness is self-induced, some of it is managed uncertainty. If the market were rational, it would be patiently waiting for Apple's growth into China, some new great stuff, all the steady refinements, in short all the REASONS that Apple has figured out how to appeal to a whole lot of people. But the adolescence you speak of prevails. It gathers more hits. We're in the junior-high years of the Internet.
post #48 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

On the front page of Yahoo finance is a headline blaring: Bracing For Disaster; How Low Will Apple's earning be. The hyperbole has now reached ridiculous levels. And it seems not an hour of the day goes by without someone pushing out negativity. Honestly is there anything Apple has done to warrant all this negativity, and downright hate in some quarters?

Unbelievable. To your last question, my suggestion is that they took on Samsung, who is now striking back behind the scenes.

Geek hatred against Apple gladly joins in the campaign, because they hate good taste and competent technology.

Edit: Warning, it's by Blodget! Since when does he tramp for Yahoo? Where's Gruber during this circus?
Edited by Flaneur - 4/22/13 at 10:36am
post #49 of 65
Well, I answered my own question about Gruber. He links to a great piece from Phillip Elmer-DeWitt:

Here's your answer too, jdnc123. Might as well throw in igriv also:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/22/apple-cook-whisper-campaign/

Don't miss the comments, at least as far down till you get to sacto joe's.

Edit: Let me emphasize to AI comment readers:Don't take in jdnc123's poison without Elmer-DeWitt's antidote!
Edited by Flaneur - 4/22/13 at 11:00am
post #50 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


For all the doom and gloom the analysts and trolls shove onto Apple the fact that hardly any other company gets mentioned when these vendors have dozens if not hundreds of customers is proof that Apple still holds all the cards when it comes to mindshare.

 

Indeed. But those (mind)shares are cheaper than 6 months ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

The story mentions the fact that Apple is responsible for 30% of LG's display business, so I don't think this is about mindshare. It seems clear that Apple will not have a great quarter (all of the supply chain indications are negative), but on the bright side, this seems priced into the stock at this point.

So, if Apple does report lower than previously predicted profits, $AAPL will not drop to $375 or lower. Come to think of it - now that it has dipped below $600, crashed through $500 and tumbled past $400, what is the next theoretical bottom?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


. . . says the resident serial manipulator of our minds.

Insert "attempted" in there somewhere.

You mean ... "says the resident serial manipulator of our attempted minds"? 1wink.gif

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Everything I've seen points to the Retina IPS panels being LG's design but LG's manufacturing really does seem quite poor. I much prefer Samsung's manufacturing of these displays. Same goes for the SSD Cards using Samsung controllers over Toshiba. For all their ethical faults Samsung has repeatedly shown to have the best foundries.

 

Agree wholeheartedly. But I don't think it's just about foundries. Regardless, the biggest threat Samsung poses when it comes to supplying parts is DRAM. Apple can find alternative suppliers for microprocessors and displays (even if there has been a struggle to maintain the same quality). But finding alternative sources for memory chips will be a greater challenge.

post #51 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

He had momentum as his back.  Momentum from when someone else was calling the shots.  I don't think he has done anything different, but has lost all momentum that was put in place by someone else.  As we are now seeing it is 'all on him' and the market has little confidence in that situation.

How exactly has he lost momentum? Sales, revenues and profits have kept rising. If analysts are right, then tomorrow will mark the first time in almost 10 years that Apple dips in profits compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If analysts are wrong, then Cook has kept up the momentum yet again. Yes, there have been miscues. But those emerge now and then too when Jobs was ostensibly at the top of his game.

 

Analysts are allegedly focusing on the second derivative - the rate of growth has been decreasing. But this criticism is not applied uniformly to the rest of the industry. As a result, the P/E is out of whack whether you are looking at the present, past or future earnings. Rather fascinating phenomenon if I haven't lost millions over this.

 

p.s. Just kidding.

post #52 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

 The market is saying Apple is no better than any other company.  I would like management to stop acting as if they and the company are still infallible.  The dreadful last 7 months have pounded home to anyone that is listening that isn't the case.

 

They don't act like they're infallible and nobody's saying they are.  That's a false accusation you people make.  They're not infallible, they're just 10x better than the competition!

post #53 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

Listen, the reality is nobody can invest on hope and perception.  Apple's products are great.  I have many of them.  I see them everywhere I travel.  My kids and all their friends are being ingrained at an early age via the iPod touch (all the rage for the 7-12 range), which no other manufacturer competes with really.  This is not about the past, its about the present.  My issue with Cook is the lack of communication, lack of articulated strategy and what I believe to be his and upper mgmt's whiff on the impact competition would have on their products including the larger form factors.  I think some of this was due to arrogance.  The market is saying Apple is no better than any other company.  I would like management to stop acting as if they and the company are still infallible.  The dreadful last 7 months have pounded home to anyone that is listening that isn't the case.

Cook communicates more than Jobs ever did (e.g. "holding it wrong").

 

Cook articulates the same strategy than Jobs did - Apple will keep making great products.

 

As for the impact competition has had - how many more iPhones would Apple have sold if there were no large Androids? So many more than $AAPL would have stayed at $700?

 

As for arrogance, has there ever been a CEO as arrogant as Jobs?

 

Apple's present is this - they keep selling more and more products, and keep making more and more money. More than they ever did when Jobs was in charge. 

 

As for acting like they are infallible, Cook has issued at least 3 public apologies in the last year. How many did Jobs issue in his entire career? 

 

Imagine every number pertaining to Apple was 10% what it is - units sold, revenues, profits, growth rate, market cap, etc. I betcha $AAPL would have at least held steady or perhaps it would have kept growing. As it is, the market doesn't know what to do with the company that is worth more than any other, and is making money faster than most others. There is this sense of - surely all good things must come to a stop; and it is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

post #54 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

To answer your question, unless Apple's quarter is disastrous (as in 10% below estimates), or unless the guidance is really terrible,I don't see the stock going below $375. You can laugh at me on Wednesday :( The first possibility (a very bad quarter) does not strike me as very likely (because the expectations are quite low). The second (bad guidance) is, unfortunately, possible, since Apple has nothing (that we know of)  in the pipeline for Q2. The next natural announcement point is WWDC, but that means that whatever it is won't ship until Q3 at the latest. Reading ancient tea leaves, if they announce a new Mac Pro line, that probably WILL ship in the summer, but that's peanuts, revenue-wise. Probably there will be a refresh to the MacBooks, too (again, that's usually when these things are done), but I doubt that any phone/tablet will ship before Sep, which means TWO weak quarters. But, who can say...

You're stating all the (good) reasons why various analysts adjusted their estimates for the June quarter in the last few days. Perhaps there is one mistake Apple has made - For the first time in 4 years, there has been no product announcement/launch in the first calendar quarter (iPad announcement in 2010, 11, and 12; iOS 3 in 2009). But then again, it might not be a mistake in "scheduling". It could be one of two things - 1. They are indeed having problems readying production of the next iteration of iWhatever (iPhone 5S, iPad Mini 2, iPad 5). 2. They are preparing something big (iWatch?). Either way, I think this is the longest Apple lull in quite some time? 

post #55 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

A south korean company only cares about its own share price (unlike Apple, which, apparently does not). The question of why Apple SHOULD care has been beaten to death on other AI forums, so if you don't have a clue yet, you probably never will.

 

 

Which is why the SEC should look into unethical behaviour by paid shills and the people paying them.

 

The share price has barely anything whatsoever to do with what Apple does, so why should the company care?

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #56 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

I should have said I don't think the VZ data is positive - in my opinion - due to the large numbers of older models sold, which will pressure ASPs and could lead to a revenue miss.  Further is indicates slowing growth (which is the concern) despite the absolute growth.  To each is own, some have view the VZ data point as positive, some as negative.

 

I didn't see Kass or Enderle write anything this weekend.  Stories were on Forbes, Seeking Alpha and The Street, neither of which I consider quality publications so didn't link, but there is indeed increased chatter about whether Tim Cook should be shown the door.

 

From Barrons:

 

"Speaking of Apple, a piece by contributor Gene Marcial of Forbes.com is getting some attention this morning. Marcial writes that some “sources close to some APple executives” say there is “a move afoot” to replace CEO Tim Cook. CNBC jumped on that bit of speculation this morning, asking BGC’s Gillis “how much time does he have left,” to which Gillis replied, “I think till the end of the year."

 

More paid placement pieces from spivs based on bullshit.

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post #57 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

>>Cook does not really have a responsibility to the stock price. His responsibility is to ensuring the company spends money wisely and makes a profit. If the investors are stupid enough to sell off stock at a discount because of blatant media manipulation, they are getting what they deserve.>>

 

The biggest (i..e #1 and #2) holders of Apple stock were selling last week.  You don't honestly think they care what the media says do you?  Cook does have a responsibility to create maximum shareholder value.  That is the #1 goal of any public company CEO.

 

>>Cook's future depends on continuing to grow Apple's profit.>>

 

Current estimates are for Apple's profits to shrink this fiscal year.

 

>> If you are not a professional, you should not make short term securities investments (I will call short term anything you plan holding less then 10 years).>>

 

Now that is funny.

"Apple rose 2.5 percent to $400.19 at 3:04 p.m. in New York, the biggest intraday gain in five weeks."

 

Bloomberg.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #58 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Well, two year plans are in effect vendor financing for expensive devices, and I am amused to see that T-mobile has actually came out with a straight-up financing plan. I am curious how this will fly...

 

In Canada the smaller carriers are trying something along those lines and it seems to be well received. They offer a "tab" that one pays back at $X/month until the device is paid off. Cheap devices require no initial payment, the full price is amortized over the tab period. More expensive devices require a lump payment up front in addition to the tab payments.

 

It's not really much different than the subsidy model except that ones' bill is reduced once the device is paid off and it's more transparent to the customer.


Edited by v5v - 4/22/13 at 2:58pm
post #59 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Well, idiots will buy anything, after all. How else do you think Apple is able to price its crap hardware so high?¡

 

You could have fitted an "overpriced" in there somewhere.

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post #60 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

 

Listen, the reality is nobody can invest on hope and perception.

 

Explain Amazon.

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post #61 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

What exactly is your point? Are you surprised? Would you rather the stock keep nosediving (after all, Apple doesn't care, and it would really screw those evil investing types)?

 

Are you surprised Mr 375 doom and gloom?

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post #62 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

[...] My issue with Cook is the lack of communication, lack of articulated strategy and what I believe to be his and upper mgmt's whiff on the impact competition would have on their products including the larger form factors.  I think some of this was due to arrogance.

 

I am by no means qualified to comment on matters related to the market or management of a multibillion dollar corporation, but as a customer (as opposed to an investor) I actually feel more comfortable with Cook at the helm than Jobs.

 

Jobs had imagination that may or may not still exist at Apple. He "invented" entirely new categories of products the world had not imagined before he created them. I always felt like he was telling me that he knew better than I what's best for me though, and that if my needs and wants were inconsistent with what he was offering it was an indication of a shortcoming on MY part, not a reason to consider changes to a product.

 

Cook, on the other hand, doesn't strike me as a creative genius churning out entirely new ways of interacting with the world, but he does seem like the kind of guy who is open to considering opinions other than his own. I get the feeling that he's more likely to respond to signs that the world wants something else (think iPad Mini) than stubbornly insist he knows what's best like Jobs.

 

Obviously my impressions may be completely wrong, but I'm okay with feeling at least cautiously optimistic about Apple instead of wary and suspicious!

post #63 of 65
Rumors have been said that the next iPad will feature a different display technology. I wonder how sites reporting rumors wonder about this lowered demand of older displays.
post #64 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Explain Amazon.

Ouch. We may have wait awhile for jdnc 123 to cook up an answer.

Anyway, best post of the week nominee.
post #65 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

[...] Ruling by committee, which is what often meant by "being open to opinions other than his own", usually (not always) is.

 

I don't know how things work at Apple so I have no idea whether Cook is a consensus guy or not. I do know that willingness to listen doesn't have to mean ruling by committee though. I work for a guy who will listen to my opinions and respond with either "That's a good idea" or "I understand what you're saying, but I still think this is the best way to go." He's secure enough to realize that others may have good ideas too, but confident enough to reject them if he doesn't think they're going to pay off.

 

 


Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Plus "cautiously optimistic" is almost synonymous with "wary".

 

Not the way I intended it. "Wary" was accompanied by a generally negative feeling. My version of "cautiously optimistic" comes with a positive outlook.

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