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Wall Street disappointed by indications that Apple won't launch new products until fall

post #1 of 131
Thread Starter 
While Apple posted better-than-expected quarterly results and increased its quarterly dividend this week, market watchers are still concerned a lull in new product introductions is likely to continue until this fall.

In its March quarter, Apple saw the first year-over-year decline in profit for the first time in a decade. Apple's iPhone and iPad still set new sales records, but lower margins on those products hurt the company's bottom line.

Campus


Apple's earnings were better than many market watchers had anticipated. But reacting to the company's conference call with executives, analysts on Wednesday expressed concern over the company's near-term prospects.In a rare admission, Apple CEO Tim Cook said this week that Apple has new products coming this fall and throughout 2014.

Specifically, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said that Apple has a number of product "surprises" starting this fall and continuing throughout 2014. Analysts took those comments to suggest that Apple is not planning any major product launches in the coming months, leaving the first half of calendar 2013 and beyond relatively barren for new product introductions.

Deutsche Bank



"These Apples won't harvest before fall," quipped Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank. He said that while new capital returns from Apple are "nice," the introduction of a new iPhone would be "nicer."

Apple announced on Tuesday that it plans to spend $100 billion through the end of calendar year 2015 on share buybacks and an increased quarterly dividend. Starting in March, Apple's dividend payout will be 15 percent higher, at $3.05 per common share.

"These shareholder friendly initiatives will certainly appeal to investors, but does not hide the fact that Apple needs to introduce a 5-inch iPhone, a new 5S, and a low cost iPhone for emerging markets," Whitmore said Wednesday.

Campus


RBC Capital Markets



Impatience was also expressed Wednesday by Amit Daryanani of RBC, who now expects that iPhone shipments will fall 30 percent year over year to 26 million in the current June quarter. In his words, matters for Apple are "going to get worse before it gets better."Analysts welcome Apple's higher dividend and expanded share buyback program, but are disappointed by indications that new products won't launch until this fall.

In addition, Daryanani believes Apple's June quarter guidance, which calls for between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion in revenue with gross margins between 36 and 37 percent, was a negative overall. He was specifically disappointed by the fact that gross margins are expected to decline.

"We believe the debate surrounding Apple's long-term financial model should ramp up as bears point to a continued decline in gross margins," he said. "In our view, while the guidance was softer than expected, the increase in capital allocation and iPad growth should help Apple return to double-digit growth post product line refreshes."

iProducts


Wells Fargo



While many investors expected a new iPhone to launch in the June quarter, Maynard Um of Wells Fargo said he believes shortened product cycles are unnecessary. He noted that some wireless carriers are becoming even more strict on upgrade eligibility, requiring customers to wait a full 24 months before they can obtain a fully subsidized handset with a new service contract.

Um also believes it would be "more prudent" if Apple were to spread out its product refreshes. He noted that very few consumers can afford to upgrade their iPhone, iPad, Mac and iPod simultaneously.

Apple will transition better into new product launches this year, Um expects, after learning from difficult transitions to new products last year. He believes Apple will demonstrate better inventory management, which could also help its gross margins.

Piper Jaffray



Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray believes shares of AAPL stock will trade higher through the latter half of calendar 2013. He expects that Wall Street watchers will reset their expectations and adjust for lower core iPhone growth moving forward.

Many analysts see Apple to returning to growth in the December quarter, when it's expected the company will begin to see the benefits of new products.Based on the comments made by Cook, Munster has revised his estimates for the new iPhone to debut in Apple's December quarter. He still believes a so-called "iPhone 5S" could launch in the September quarter, but he originally anticipated the device to launch in June.

Munster also sees Apple releasing a big-screen iPhone in 2014, an assumption he believes is bolstered by Cook's comments on Tuesday. Speaking with analysts, Cook said Apple would not ship an iPhone with a larger display until various "trade-offs" can be avoided.

Finally, Munster also noted that Cook mentioned Apple is looking at new services to provide in addition to new product categories. In his recollection, this is the first time Apple has hinted at new product services and categories.

Needham & Company



Along those same lines, Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company questioned whether Apple is becoming a services company. He noted that management highlighted the fact that iTunes, software revenues and services surpassed $4 billion in the March quarter.

"While still a small fraction of the company's total revenues, the recurring nature of this revenue stream argues that it will grow faster than overall company revenues going forward," Wolf said.

The analyst also believes that Apple's $100 billion capital reinvestment plans will place a "floor" under the company's share price. He does not, however, expect that the stock will rebound quickly.

Topeka Capital Markets



While Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets believes Apple is on the road to a "sustainable stock recovery," he believes investors will likely have to wait until Apple's fiscal year 2014 to see "better times." Apple's fiscal 2013 has been, as he put it, "painful."

White said Apple's road to recovery should include three stages, all of which he believes will be addressed: distribution of cash, a bottom in the profit cycle, and the opening up of new markets. Apple announced new cash distributions on Tuesday, White believes Apple's profit cycle will likely bottom out in the current fiscal quarter, and the company hinted that it will enter new markets later this year.

2013 Predictions
Source: KGI Securities


Morgan Stanley



New products and easier comparisons will help drive Apple growth, but not until the December quarter, said Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty. While Apple's March results beat her models, she lowered her June and September estimates on Wednesday in light of Apple's guidance.

She took Cook's comments to imply that Apple will launch its next-generation iPhone in September. Huberty expects that Apple will see earnings per share growth in the December quarter on the back of new product launches, including an updated iPad mini.

To Huberty, perhaps the most interesting element of Apple's conference call was what she called an "increased focus" on content, software and services from the company. She noted that Apple's digital services have hit a $16 billion annual revenue run rate, up 30 percent year over year.

"Most interesting to us is the potential for a killer service, like mobile payments, to better monetize the 500-million-plus account base and drive further differentiation and share gains in mobile devices," she said.
post #2 of 131
WSJ has something bad to say about Apple? Shocking¡

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #3 of 131
Wall Street can go and F themselves!!
post #4 of 131

Totally puzzling product intro roadmap. With the bunching increasing the likelihood of creating supply issues and shortages, as happened last year.

 

It's going to be a long, hard summer for AAPL shareholders, Apple enthusiasts, and AI's boards.

post #5 of 131

This is hilarious!

 

They are not demanding a better iPhone, they are demanding 3 new models already and talking like if iWatch and iTV are certain things and apple's obligation!

 

I truly believe that APPL is doomed.

post #6 of 131

Nothing Apple does will ever satisfy Wall Street.  Apple is the company they love to hate.

post #7 of 131
here's a template headline that has been getting a lot of use lately: "Wall Street Disappointed by Apple."
post #8 of 131
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

I truly believe that APPL is doomed.

 

AAPL's gonna be just fine, though.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #9 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by simtub View Post

Wall Street can go and F themselves!!

Was thinking the same thing.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #10 of 131
Amazing how all these analysts know how to run a billon dollar company like Apple. I don't think Apple got where it is now by selling POS devices. As for faith in Wall Street, I think a lot of people are hitting the "delete" key. I see good times ahead and I'm keeping my AAPL
Mr. Scott
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Mr. Scott
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post #11 of 131

Hey...whatever continues to drive the stock price down. Might as well get it as low as possible before miraculously praising them again to get the stock price back up. 

post #12 of 131
Originally Posted by Mr.Scott View Post
I don't think Apple got where it is now by selling POS devices.

 

That's the problem. I think Wall Street wants Apple to sell point of sale devices. 1wink.gif

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #13 of 131

Wall Street hasn't been about actually investing to create things for a long, long time. It's now about passing money around and skimming off the top to make the rich richer, and never to create a single job.

 

Apple is out profiting Everyone. And I mean EVERY COMPANY ON EARTH.

 

Yet these 'experts' are not impressed.

 

When society finally breaks down, Wall Streeters will be the first ones eaten.

post #14 of 131
Boo-frickin-hoo Wall Street
post #15 of 131

I think Cook stated it well when he said Apple's focus will continue to be creating the best products. That's what I care about.

post #16 of 131
Dear Wall Street,

Apple doesn't NEED to do anything. The same analysts probably said Apple needed to sell a Netbook.

The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.
post #17 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Scott View Post

Amazing how all these analysts know how to run a billon dollar company like Apple. I don't think Apple got where it is now by selling POS devices. ...

 

... like netbooks. Remember when Wall Street was insisting, demanding, that Apple had to enter the netbook market or they were doomed? How's that netbook market looking now, Wall Street? Oh, right, it's dead, killed off because Apple ignored your advice.

post #18 of 131
I actually might be interested in one of the minor (market-wise) and un-"surprising" releases planned for this year: a Mac Pro replacement. No reason to think that Tim Cook was lumping that into the "Fall surprises" comment.

My ancient iMac is feeling its age, and I might just get another... but I'd like to judge the new Pro first. WWDC?
post #19 of 131
I truly don't understand why Apple switched away from the year round intro of new devices/models. There should be quarterly updates with iPad, iPhone, Mac and iPod/Apple TV etc. One per quarter would be better in so many ways.
post #20 of 131
Cry me a river Wall St. Really. Want some new device. Here ya go, latest from Hitachi:
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #21 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

 

When society finally breaks down, Wall Streeters will be the first ones eaten.

And rightly so. From the Bonfire of the Vanities:

 

 

                                  JUDY
                   Here. Let me try. Darling, Daddy
                   doesn't build roads or hospitals
                   or anything, really. Daddy just
                   handles the bonds for the people
                   who raise the money.
                                 CAMPBELL
                   That's what he said. Bonds.

                                 JUDY
                   Yes. See, just imagine that a
                   bond is a slice of cake. Now you
                   didn't bake that cake, but every
                   time you hand somebody a slice of
                   that cake, a little bit comes off,
                   little crumbs fall off. And you're
                   allowed to keep those crumbs.
                                                    (CONTINUED)
                                                          39.

102   CONTINUED:    (2)                                         102
                                  SHERMAN
                   Crumbs?   Really...

                                 MR. McCOY
                          (pointedly)
                   And many a man has sold his soul
                   for those little crumbs.

                                 JUDY
                          (enjoying this)
                   Yes. And that's what Daddy does.
                   He passes somebody else's cake
                   around and picks up the crumbs.
                   But you have to imagine a lot of
                   crumbs. And a great golden cake.
                   And a lot of golden crumbs. And
                   you have to imagine Daddy running
                   around picking up every little
                   golden crumb he can get his hands
                   on. That's what Daddy does.
post #22 of 131
How about amazon ?? Disappointed ? It takes many years to get the same profit as Apple .
post #23 of 131
here is my notion on this matter. the iPhone 5, iPad 4, iPod Touch 5, the new nano, new lineup of Macs were all introduced in THE FALL!!! how is it a surprise that the market would not see a new device until then. Tgese market analysts can take a freaking hike if you ask me. you know Apple's trends, why are you so surprised.

The one word I have to sum these people up with is, Morons!
post #24 of 131
Cook is making the big mistake of caring what investors think. Cook is taking SJ's final words to him "Don't ask, "What would Steve do"?" too seriously. SJ would say, ignore Wall Street. Cook and the other boys ask what would Steve do. SJ would be right.
post #25 of 131

You know the thing about ANALysts....They are full of SH**

post #26 of 131

Where is the logic in having these huge product release holes, and then releasing a whole crapload of stuff at once? Do you not want to spread out your product releases throughout the year, instead of everything arriving around the same time and not being able to meet demand?

 

I can already see the headlines for the rest of 2013. 

 

New Apple products finally announced, after a summer of absolutely no new Apple releases and no real product news, besides retarded rumors of course, which never end, not even for a single day. Macbook supplies constrained. iPhone supplies constrained. iPad supplies constrained.

 

Foxconn workers revolt, forced to work overtime, in order to meet increased ramp up of production of Apple products. 127 Chinese people jump to their deaths while making iPhones. Foxconn workers now ordered to wear parachutes while working. The New York Times and Mike Daisy have orgasms.

 

Apple finally releases budget iPhone. Will first be released in Somalia, Afghanistan and Haiti. 18 other countries to follow shortly thereafter.

 

Same Analysts who called for budget iPhone now attack Apple for declining margins, caused by budget iPhone and the cannibalization of premium iPhone. Same analysts lower their price targets for Apple yet again, due to declining margins.

 

Every five weeks, Chinese state run media will launch a new set of attacks against Apple.

 

I could continue, but I won't. 

post #27 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

WSJ has something bad to say about Apple? Shocking¡

You mean other than Mossberg.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #28 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Where is the logic in having these huge product release holes, and then releasing a whole crapload of stuff at once? Do you not want to spread out your product releases throughout the year, instead of everything arriving around the same time and not being able to meet demand?

I can already see the headlines for the rest of 2013. 

New Apple products finally announced, after a summer of absolutely no new Apple releases and no real product news, besides retarded rumors of course, which never end, not even for a single day. Macbook supplies constrained. iPhone supplies constrained. iPad supplies constrained.

Foxconn workers revolt, forced to work overtime, in order to meet increased ramp up of production of Apple products. 127 Chinese people jump to their deaths while making iPhones. Foxconn workers now ordered to wear parachutes while working. The New York Times and Mike Daisy have orgasms.

Apple finally releases budget iPhone. Will first be released in Somalia, Afghanistan and Haiti. 18 other countries to follow shortly thereafter.

Same Analysts who called for budget iPhone now attack Apple for declining margins, caused by budget iPhone and the cannibalization of premium iPhone. Same analysts lower their price targets for Apple yet again, due to declining margins.

Every five weeks, Chinese state run media will launch a new set of attacks against Apple.

I could continue, but I won't. 

Not only not meeting demand but forcing people to choose which device to buy. Not many people can afford a iPhone, iPads, or Mac all at once especially around the holidays. Much easier to buy when they're spread out throughout the year.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #29 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Dear Wall Street,

Apple doesn't NEED to do anything. The same analysts probably said Apple needed to sell a Netbook.

The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

I agree
post #30 of 131
My two cents... I'm disappointed that Apple doesn't appear to have anything for the next 5-6 months that could be a game changer, because that is the only way the stock could get back to $600.

But, I am happy about the share repurchase, as it seems to track pretty well with the reduced profit expectation, so EPS should flatten out to a point of stability.

As for the punditry talking about what Apple should make now, it is amusing. The reason the 4 and 4S are still so successful is because people like the look of them, they are cost competitive, and the owners don't need to spend another $40-60+ on new cables or adapters.

What Apple needs to do to be Apple is come up with the next revolutionary product in due course. Apple 2.0 had a great chart people should see and understand: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/15/apple-ipod-iphone-disruption/

Products run their course, and disruptive innovation takes over. If you are lucky a product lives a long "maintenance" life like the Mac, and provides a foundation for the future.
post #31 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

My two cents... I'm disappointed that Apple doesn't appear to have anything for the next 5-6 months that could be a game changer, because that is the only way the stock could get back to $600.

But, I am happy about the share repurchase, as it seems to track pretty well with the reduced profit expectation, so EPS should flatten out to a point of stability.

As for the punditry talking about what Apple should make now, it is amusing. The reason the 4 and 4S are still so successful is because people like the look of them, they are cost competitive, and the owners don't need to spend another $40-60+ on new cables or adapters.

What Apple needs to do to be Apple is come up with the next revolutionary product in due course. Apple 2.0 had a great chart people should see and understand: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/15/apple-ipod-iphone-disruption/

Products run their course, and disruptive innovation takes over. If you are lucky a product lives a long "maintenance" life like the Mac, and provides a foundation for the future.

Interesting article but how can Apple consume the iPhone when it's so many things already. It was easy to consume the iPod because it served one purpose. Integrating it was easy. What other product is out there that people aren't using much that Apple can reinvent or revolutionize?
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #32 of 131

Let's give WSJ the "Duh!" award for the year!

As concerned as everyone else is about supply chain issues and single quarter product intros, I'm keeping faith that Apple knows what the heck they are doing.  Wall Street needs to butt-out and let Apple do what they do best.  Run the most successful company in the last 10 years and make the greatest tech products and services than anyone else in the last 10 years.  Jobs thought that way, Warren Buffet thinks this way too.  Just butt-out and let them do their job.

post #33 of 131
"Wall Street is disappointed, Wall Street is disappointed..."

Wall Street can go to Hell!!!
post #34 of 131

so there won't be nothing to talk about until wwdc, right? 2 months.

 

see ya!

post #35 of 131
This morning on CNBC, Joe Kernan called Apple a "gadget maker". Seem pretty clear now that is the Wall Street sentiment on the company. Apple is a maker of gadgets and should be pumping out new toys every 6 months. And not just any toys, but mind blowing revolutionary products that only Steve Jobs would think of.
post #36 of 131

Speculators vs Investors...

 

Speculators are mad because they can't make quick money in the short-term churning Apple stock

 

Investors see strong financials, a huge loyal customer base, excellent products, great cash reserve, plans to increase the dividends and stock buy backs and see that Apple should out perform the market and most companies for years ahead.

 

Buy and hold.

post #37 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Where is the logic in having these huge product release holes, and then releasing a whole crapload of stuff at once? Do you not want to spread out your product releases throughout the year, instead of everything arriving around the same time and not being able to meet demand?

 

I can already see the headlines for the rest of 2013. 

 

New Apple products finally announced, after a summer of absolutely no new Apple releases and no real product news, besides retarded rumors of course, which never end, not even for a single day. Macbook supplies constrained. iPhone supplies constrained. iPad supplies constrained.

 

Foxconn workers revolt, forced to work overtime, in order to meet increased ramp up of production of Apple products. 127 Chinese people jump to their deaths while making iPhones. Foxconn workers now ordered to wear parachutes while working. The New York Times and Mike Daisy have orgasms.

 

Apple finally releases budget iPhone. Will first be released in Somalia, Afghanistan and Haiti. 18 other countries to follow shortly thereafter.

 

Same Analysts who called for budget iPhone now attack Apple for declining margins, caused by budget iPhone and the cannibalization of premium iPhone. Same analysts lower their price targets for Apple yet again, due to declining margins.

 

Every five weeks, Chinese state run media will launch a new set of attacks against Apple.

 

I could continue, but I won't. 

It is difficult. I am sure Apple has an 'ideal' release cycle, but what do you do if you fail to meet your own deadline? You want the product out asap. Holding on to it may be a bad move. Do you waste time and enrgy and release an interim product that everyone will hate, or be disappointed at? 'Making Stuff' is hard, and getting it 'right' is very hard. I completely think it is ok for Apple to follow its own beat and deliver when they can. Not to say it is ideal to bunch releases up... but it'll make for a fun month or two.

post #38 of 131

By clearly implying fall keeps the stock affordable to repurchase - explains the logic of the payback decision timing. The word "surprise" was prevalent yesterday too - why would Apple give Samsung a heads up of a pending launch, hopefully a surprise in this half - a bloody mac pro at least - either way confidently long still

post #39 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Not only not meeting demand but forcing people to choose which device to buy. Not many people can afford a iPhone, iPads, or Mac all at once especially around the holidays. Much easier to buy when they're spread out throughout the year.
One, we don't know what's coming out this fall. Two, Cook said this fall and 2014 which leads me to believe they're getting their ducks in a row for 2014 to be able to push big things out across the whole year. I doubt Apple is intentionally holding things back to release them all in one quarter.
post #40 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Where is the logic in having these huge product release holes, and then releasing a whole crapload of stuff at once? Do you not want to spread out your product releases throughout the year, instead of everything arriving around the same time and not being able to meet demand?

Yeah... they botched that one. Enough said. Terrible strategic decision. Likely done to make sure Apple was on people's minds going into the holiday shopping season.

As someone else said in another thread, the iMacs should have been updated six months earlier with a speed bump only, and the new form factor announced at the end of January. iPhones need to ship early enough that they are readily available throughout December, but late enough that they are still new.

I personally think that the lightning port roll-out was botched more than anything else. I'm not sure how to approach it better when you make a major change like that impacts three different product lines. Maybe Christmas wasn't the best time to do it. Maybe they could have had a year with a hybrid dual-function jack. All that said, the lightning connector is an order of magnitude better than the MicroUSB, and I am happy they stuck with something proprietary. Just wish the transition was easier.
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