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IDC: Apple's iPhone sheds marketshare as smartphones out-ship feature phones for first time

post #1 of 67
Thread Starter 
According to market research firm IDC, worldwide smartphone shipments outpaced those of feature phones for the first time ever during the first quarter of 2013, while Apple's iPhone saw its marketshare dip to below 20 percent.

iPhone 5


Despite reporting a 6.6 percent year-over-year boost in sales for the first quarter of 2013, Apple's iPhone growth wasn't strong enough to fend off competing smartphone makers from gobbling up marketshare, data from the IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows.

During its quarterly earnings conference call for the second fiscal quarter of 2013, Apple reported iPhone sales of 37.4 million units, up from 35.1 million in the year prior, translating to a 6.6 percent rate of growth. According to IDC, the last time Apple's posted a year-over-year growth in the single-digits was in the third quarter of 2009.

At the end of quarter one, Apple's worldwide share of the smartphone market fell to 17.3 percent, down from 23 percent in 2012, but still good for second place behind Samsung. The Cupertino tech giant was the only top-five smartphone manufacturer to see its marketshare contract during the period.

Apple fared better when considering total mobile phone shipments, which include feature phones, as the iPhone's piece of the pie grew slightly to 8.9 percent, up from 8.7 percent in 2012.

Smartphone
Source: IDC


Worldwide leader Samsung grew its share of the smartphone market roughly 4 percent to 32.7 percent on shipments of 70.7 million units, up 60.7 percent from 44 million shipped units in the year-ago period. Total phone shipments reached 115 million, representing a 27.5 percent share of the total mobile phone market.

The biggest year-over-year change in smartphone shipments came from third-place vendor LG, which saw a 110.2 percent boost, from 4.9 million to 10.3 million units. The company's marketshare is still relatively small, however, with only 4.8 percent of the sector.

Rounding out the top five smartphone vendors was Huawei and ZTE, which saw shipments of 9.9 million and 9.1 million units accounting for 4.6. and 4.2 percent of the market, respectively.

Total
Source: IDC


Overall smartphone shipments reached 216.2 million units in the first quarter, or 51.6 percent of the 418.6 million total phones shipped.

"Phone users want computers in their pockets. The days where phones are used primarily to make phone calls and send text messages are quickly fading away," said IDC Senior Research Analyst with Kevin Restivo. "As a result, the balance of smartphone power has shifted to phone makers that are most dependent on smartphones."
post #2 of 67
You KNOW how this thread will progress...

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #3 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

You KNOW how this thread will progress...

 

To infinity and beyond :))

post #4 of 67
Market share means nothing . Look at netbooks , boomed , all gone .
The most important thing for Apple to do is profit profit and profit .
post #5 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

You KNOW how this thread will progress...

 

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #6 of 67
I can only assume out-ship is always followed after out-sold.
"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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post #7 of 67
60% growth vs 6%?

Shipped or not that's not good. Ouch.
post #8 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

You KNOW how this thread will progress...
Usually people start by shooting the messenger and dismissing the numbers, then comes the shipped vs sold fallacy, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

60% growth vs 6%?
That's rather +60% vs -6% market share growth, obviously not a pleasant trend. (edit: misread)
Edited by Sensi - 4/26/13 at 3:02am
post #9 of 67

IDC... have they ever produced ANY trustworthy stats?? I think not.

post #10 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sensi View Post


Usually people start by shooting the messenger and dismissing the numbers, then comes the shipped vs sold fallacy, etc.
That's rather +60% vs -6% market share growth, obviously not a pleasant trend.

No its not, its + 60% vs +6% unit share growth. Still very bad though.

 

As for other comments.

 

1) Profit share is also falling, rather dramatically. It is a function of market share and margin, both dropping.

2) Apple actually records shipments to channel as sales. The  stat - to customers - is sell through. And doesn't make the headlines.

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post #11 of 67

ok, this data deserves a nice discussion.

 

Apple reached the limit of what a premium 4" phone can do, and that's 4.5 billion profit per quarter (+-). If they want to earn marketshare to give more power to iOS, they need:

 

a) a cheaper iPhone line (like macbook air and pro);

b) a bigger screen iPhone to lure costumers away form samsung, htc and sony;

c) both a) and b), my favourite. So 3 iphone lines.

 

If they do not want to produce a newer cheaper iPhone, the price of the iPhone 4 has to drop at least 150 dollars. It's 3 years old, no matter how good. The iphone 4 costs 400 euros, the nexus 4? 300.

They wouldn't go after the lower end to gain shitloads of money, no one gains money from that range, they would after it to give more power to iOS as a platform.

 

A bigger screen iphone line should come too. Of course, some users here are stupid to understand that millions and millions find the 4" small, and are willing to pay a lot for a big screen and such iPhone line wouldn't have any impact (besides something great, like more power to iOS) to regular 4" iPhone users.

 

Obviously, they can keep the current model, that has been working so well. But won't iOS suffer in the long run? Macs are the best computers, OSX the best OS, but they could be better with more marketshare, for what is worth.

 

Apple can easily put iOS as the dominant OS for the next 10 years with 2 more iPhone lines. This, allied with the fact that income from the ecosystem is growing, is only good.

 

I fail to see why they wouldn't do this. They have everything now. They could more than double the number of iPhones being sold and almost double the profit per quarter. Samsung will only slow down when ZTE and Huwai go up, and LG too. The Market is far from saturation!

 

And please, do not talk about china mobile. That would be a temporary thing too...


Edited by pedromartins - 4/26/13 at 2:55am
post #12 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

No its not, its + 60% vs +6% unit share growth. Still very bad though.
I was speaking of the year to year change in smartphone market share about Apple, first table:

2012 Q1: 23%
2013 Q1: 17.3%
y to y = -5.7%

What I completely misread was the Sammy one which is obviously not +60% but +3.9%
Edited by Sensi - 4/26/13 at 3:01am
post #13 of 67
Where does IDC get their numbers for, for companies other than Apple? Are Samsung, LG, Nokia, etc. supplying them with data? Does IDC have a track record of being right? Here's what they said in March 2011:

Nokia's recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. "Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," added Llamas. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."
post #14 of 67
I think we are going to start seeing a dip in smartphone sales. Now that many people in the world have one (in countries with infrastructure and money) we will probably see a slowdown as people don't buy a new one every year. With phones lasting longer and of higher quality (in Apple's case anyway) people will hold into their phones and upgrade every 2 or 3 years, meaning less sales in general.
post #15 of 67
How does IDC estimate shipments for anyone other than Apple?

(Rogifan's comment preempts mine. I'll leave mine here though, in case some one missed his).
post #16 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Where does IDC get their numbers for, for companies other than Apple? Are Samsung, LG, Nokia, etc. supplying them with data? Does IDC have a track record of being right? Here's what they said in March 2011:

Nokia's recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. "Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," added Llamas. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."


http://www.idc.com/about/methodology.jsp As for Windows phone, what's wrong with what they said? The first devices DID launch in 2012 and 2015 is not here yet.

Did you even bother to read the pap that passes off for an explanation of 'methodology' you linked to?

Care to explain, based in your reading of it, how they estimate the numbers? If sampling, where are the error bands? Why and how do they confound actuals (Apple) with estimates (non-Apple)? Do they validate their estimates with actuals (using, e.g., Apple's data) and if so what are the results? If the validation is good, why do they use actuals rather than estimates for Apple?

I could go on, but you get the idea....
post #17 of 67

IDC's future predictions are crap, for sure. But their present analysis is generally accepted, in fact Apple have used it in conference calls.

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post #18 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

IDC's .......present analysis is generally accepted, in fact Apple have used it in conference calls.

That means nothing necessarily in terms of accuracy or validity.
post #19 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


That means nothing necessarily in terms of accuracy or validity.

 

Why would Apple would use likely inaccurate or invalid analyses in their conference calls? Obviously, if they're using this source in their own conference calls, they believe it's generally accurate/valid.

post #20 of 67
This just in:

Ferrari are crap because they sold less units than Ford.


Edited by GTR - 4/26/13 at 6:31am
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post #21 of 67
The iPhone has become a bit boring. There hasn't been a significant (in terms of looks) redesign since the iPhone 4. iOS is looking dated, it's not that it lacks features but it's a dated mess style wise.

Now, with Jonny in charge of iOS I expect some worthy updates along with a consistent style.

The iPhone itself will probably need to wait until the iPhone 6 to get a worthy style update.

Other handset makers such as HTC are catching up to the quality of the iPhone & so standing still looks wise won't cut it anymore.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the iPhone is doomed, quite the opposite, but they do need to get a move on.
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #22 of 67

Apple fans... better prepare yourself for plenty more bad news like this in the coming months.

 

This report, alone, will result in dozens of "Apple crashing/tumbling/stumbling..etc" headlines. Followed by a flood of delirious anti-Apple comments. The whole process will repeat itself, in a few days, when Gartner release their smartphone figures.

 

On the smartphone front, there might be a few more quarters like this. Let's see if Apple's iPhone strategy changes.

 

On the tablet front Q2 should be interesting. Last year Apple launched the 'New' iPad in March and sold a record 17 million in Q2 2012. This year... no iPad launch (so far) and even with the iPad mini, there is a possibility that iPad sales might be lower. Headline writers licking their lips... some commenters actually seeking medical help due to orgasm overload.

 

Let the games begin!

post #23 of 67
Everyone needs to remember when comparing to this quarter last year, there was an iPhone launch in q1 2012 in China etc.. which was pushed forward and didn't occur in q1 2013. that launch sold 5 million iPhones in a single weekend not to mention the weeks immediately after.
post #24 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

This just in:

Ferrari are crap because they sold less units than Ford.

 

Stupid analogy.

 

1) Ferraris are much more expensive than Fords. Much. 100-100% more. Not 40% more. 

2) iOS is a platform and like the Mac OS, it needs to have a viable platform to compete.

 

When Blackberry was falling in marketshare and Apple was growing, nobody made these points.

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post #25 of 67
Originally Posted by saarek View Post
The iPhone has become a bit boring.

 

Nope. Rules #11 & 28.


There hasn't been a significant (in terms of looks) redesign since the iPhone 4.


Have you looked at the iPhone since the iPhone 4? Rule #9.


iOS is looking dated, it's not that it lacks features but it's a dated mess style wise.

 

Nope. Rules #12 & 28.


…I expect…

 

Rules #13 & 15.


Other handset makers such as HTC are catching up…

 

Interesting. I don't have a 'catching up' rule yet. That's surprising, given the number of times people have spewed it.


…so standing still looks wise won't cut it anymore.

 

I'd say a mix of Rules #9, 10, 11, & 12 here.


I'm not saying that the iPhone is doomed…


Except that's exactly what you're saying. Rule #1.


…but they do need to get a move on

 

"I'm not saying it, but I'm saying it." Come on.

 

If you wanted to troll, you could have just linked to the Rules of the Troll list since you were too lazy to use arguments that weren't on it anyway.

post #26 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


1) Ferraris are much more expensive than Fords. Much. 100-100% more. Not 40% more. 
2) iOS is a platform and like the Mac OS, it needs to have a viable platform to compete.

When Blackberry was falling in marketshare and Apple was growing, nobody made these points.

1. I see the example of a superior device selling less units than an average device was lost on you.
2. Who said anything about iOS, Mac, Blackberry, or Apple?

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post #27 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Nope. Rules #11 & 28.


Have you looked at the iPhone since the iPhone 4? Rule #9.

Nope. Rules #12 & 28.

Rules #13 & 15.

Interesting. I don't have a 'catching up' rule yet. That's surprising, given the number of times people have spewed it.

I'd say a mix of Rules #9, 10, 11, & 12 here.


Except that's exactly what you're saying. Rule #1.

"I'm not saying it, but I'm saying it." Come on.

If you wanted to troll, you could have just linked to the Rules of the Troll list since you were too lazy to use arguments that weren't on it anyway.

...and DO NOT talk about Fight Club!
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post #28 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Worldwide leader Samsung grew its share of the smartphone market roughly 4 percent to 32.7 percent on shipments of 70.7 million units, up 60.7 percent from 44 million shipped units in the year-ago period. Total phone shipments reached 115 million, representing a 27.5 percent share of the total mobile phone market.

So, Q1 2013, Samsung shipped 70.7 million smartphones and made 7.2 trillion won / $6.5b.

In Q4 2012, Samsung shipped 63.7 million smartphones:
http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2013/01/25/idc-samsung-shipped-record-63-7m-smartphones-in-q4-12/

and made 8.84 trillion won / $8.27b:
http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/24/samsung-q4-2012-earnings/

More units, lower profit. Apple is experiencing lower margins but not to that extent and even with close to half Samsung's smartphone volume, Apple reported $9.5b profit vs Samsung's $6.5b. Samsung does twice the work for 2/3 the profit.
post #29 of 67

Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.

post #30 of 67
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post
Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.

 

Except 1. No, and 2. The Mac is over 10 percent of the market (over 15 in the US and western countries). It's not 1999 anymore.

post #31 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.

And?

 

How will that change the fact the Samsung phones are crap?

post #32 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post

Market share means nothing . Look at netbooks , boomed , all gone .
The most important thing for Apple to do is profit profit and profit .

This is the perfect answer. 

post #33 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


So, Q1 2013, Samsung shipped 70.7 million smartphones and made 7.2 trillion won / $6.5b.

In Q4 2012, Samsung shipped 63.7 million smartphones:
http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2013/01/25/idc-samsung-shipped-record-63-7m-smartphones-in-q4-12/

and made 8.84 trillion won / $8.27b:
http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/24/samsung-q4-2012-earnings/

More units, lower profit. Apple is experiencing lower margins but not to that extent and even with close to half Samsung's smartphone volume, Apple reported $9.5b profit vs Samsung's $6.5b. Samsung does twice the work for 2/3 the profit.

Samsung made less per unit than you calculated.  Because you did not include the feature phones Samsung sold.  

post #34 of 67
When are people going to stop reporting the crap that comes out of IDC. THEY WORK DIRECTLY FOR SAMSUNG Appleinsider people
post #35 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Except 1. No, and 2. The Mac is over 10 percent of the market (over 15 in the US and western countries). It's not 1999 anymore.

MacOSX 7.29% March 2013

http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-201203-201303

post #36 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

And?

 

How will that change the fact the Samsung phones are crap?


There is no And. It's just me, stating what I believe will happen next. iPhone 5% marketshare in the next 3 years. That is if Cook is not fired and Apple doesn't change it's jobsian way of doing things.

post #37 of 67
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post
MacOSX 7.29% March 2013

http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-201203-201303

 

So… you admit you were completely wrong.

post #38 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

60% growth vs 6%?

Shipped or not that's not good. Ouch

Remember, T Mobile JUST started selling the iPhone 5 this month, not last quarter.


China  Mobile hasn't been signed on, yet.

 

Apple looks at year to year growth rate and for each model.  The iPhone 5 is selling more than the previous model and eventually they will have sold more iPhone 5's than the 4S, even though the 4S is still being offered.  Yeah, Apple may be doing better in China this year than they did last year, but they STILL have to sign on China Mobile for them to start reaching Global Market that are more accurate, so in essence, Apple is kind of lagging because of China Mobile not being signed on. China Mobile itself can boost iPhone sales (all models) and Apple might increase the number of units by another 75 to 100 Million units on a yearly basis, which would then boost their Global marketshare.  We'll see how much impact T-Mobile has, but they are doing pretty good.  In the US, Apple has a significantly higher market share as compared to the Global market share.   There are also other countries that Apple STILL hasn't opened up as compared to Samsung.

 

From an investment standpoint, this is a good time to buy Apple stock and to hold it for 2-3 years.  Apple also has a capacity on how many phones they can spit out on a daily basis and if they are running at full capacity during the first quarter for the newly released product, so they can't really do much more than that due to capacity issues.


Since Apple is bringing production of certain Macs in the US, I'm sure that frees up production lines in China to make other products so they can increase their output.

 

I think that Apple should have released at least two difference screen sizes for the iPhone 5, (4 inch and a 4.5+inch model) to go after different market segments and I think that impacts Apple market share, since right now they don't go after the users that prefer a 4.5inch or larger smartphone, so those users have a choice, wait, or buy another brand in the mean time.   Will there be Android users switching back to Apple once Apple releases a larger screen model?  I'm sure they will get switchers, what the percentage will be is unknown.

 

What I've noticed in the high end Android market is that a decent number of those are going to the same person as many of these Android users will buy the latest and greatest and constantly buying new models and then selling the older one on the used market, so it impacts the user base number.

 

They always talk about activations, but they don't talk about deactivations per model.  Then there is the number of units returned and replaced.   So let's say HTC or Samsung ship a product, but they have 35% of those have to be replaced.    They might be counting those replacements as new activations, but not taking away the returned unit as it's been deactivated.

 

Bottom line, Apple's numbers could be better, but I'm sure things will pick up once they release a new large screen phone, sign on China Mobile and open up some more markets.  At least they are making more profit than most of the other players.

post #39 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.

Sorry, I don't think that's going to happen.  Wait 6 months after they sign on China Mobile and release a larger screen model.  You also have to realize that major corporations/government sector knows Apple is working on this Fingerprint technology for the iPhone and they may be holding off purchases until those models get released.  Apple is always know for building up pent up demand, which we also might be seeing.

 

The Mac in the US is hovering around 12 to 15% of units shipped.  Worldwide it's around 7%, but Asia is ramping up faster than the US, and in the US, they tripled their market share in 6 years and it's a linear growth curve. I think it's safe to say that Apple market share of what's being shipping in the US market will eventually hit around 20 to 25% within the next 3 to 6 years.  Asia will start to catch up.

post #40 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Except 1. No, and 2. The Mac is over 10 percent of the market (over 15 in the US and western countries). It's not 1999 anymore.

 

Not true.

 

According to IDC and Gartner, Mac computer sales (not including iPad, but your post states "The Mac") account for either 10% of the US market (IDC) or 11.6% (Gartner).

 

Globally, Apple isn't in the top 5 of PC vendors and has a marketshare of around 5-6%.

 

Of course, Apple might have 15% market share in other countries - I'd suspect Denmark and Norway might be around 15% apple, but i'm not too sure, and there don't appear to be statistics on those countries available online.

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