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IDC: Apple's iPhone sheds marketshare as smartphones out-ship feature phones for first time - Page 2

post #41 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post


1. I see the example of a superior device selling less units than an average device was lost on you.
2. Who said anything about iOS, Mac, Blackberry, or Apple?

1wink.gif

 

Yeah I got your "logic". And who said anything about iOS, Mac, Blackberry or Apple. I did. If you are looking for the motoring forum, you are in the wrong place.

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post #42 of 67
 
 
 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

This just in:

Ferrari are crap because they sold less units than Ford.

 

 

Except that Ferraris aren't superior products. They're just expensive, not better. Motorweek said the 458 Italia was the first Ferrari they've ever tested that didn't have interior bits falling off during the test and fit and finish problems abound. That's superior? Ford GT had no such problems and outran the Ferrari 430, which was its competition at the time, for less money. Besides, they're not practical at all. But I digress...

 

I will say that despite my needs for a larger screen, I'll be probably upgrading to the iPhone 5 soon. I was waiting for a possible June launch but apparently it was in vane... It's just a better phone all around. I had 2 coworkers messing with their Samsung Galaxies, one trying to help the other figure it out and get something working. I showed them how simple the iPhone was compared to the Android phones and they were astonished. Nothing is hidden. Nothing is hard to get to. It's all right there for you.

 
post #43 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ruel24 View Post

 
 
 

 

 

Except that Ferraris aren't superior products. They're just expensive, not better. Motorweek said the 458 Italia was the first Ferrari they've ever tested that didn't have interior bits falling off during the test and fit and finish problems abound. That's superior? Ford GT had no such problems and outran the Ferrari 430, which was its competition at the time, for less money. Besides, they're not practical at all. But I digress...

 

I will say that despite my needs for a larger screen, I'll be probably upgrading to the iPhone 5 soon. I was waiting for a possible June launch but apparently it was in vane... It's just a better phone all around. I had 2 coworkers messing with their Samsung Galaxies, one trying to help the other figure it out and get something working. I showed them how simple the iPhone was compared to the Android phones and they were astonished. Nothing is hidden. Nothing is hard to get to. It's all right there for you.

 

And all that does not change the fact that a 5" iphone with the same quality would be better for browsing gaming videos reading etc, the things people do more and more.

 

Apple thinks people will buy an iPad for that, but guess what... for millions a galaxy note is sufficient.

post #44 of 67

Can we agree that if the goal is iOS dominance for the next few years apple needs another iphone line with a bigger screen and/or a cheaper device? So 3 iphone models max.

post #45 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Can we agree that if the goal is iOS dominance for the next few years apple needs another iphone line with a bigger screen and/or a cheaper device? So 3 iphone models max.

at least

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post #46 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuddyRevell View Post


Why would Apple would use likely inaccurate or invalid analyses in their conference calls? Obviously, if they're using this source in their own conference calls, they believe it's generally accurate/valid.

Do they have any other choice? If all that is available is something like IDC, what should they do? (Oppenheimer has complained about the paucity of good data on volumes in prior conference calls.)
post #47 of 67
Apple is doomed, because 28,283 phones from 200 companies cumulatively have managed to get more combined global marketshare than a single phone line from a single company.

I like how the only way to try and make iPhone look bad is not to compare it to any other phone- but to compare it to all other phones combined. Apple has an insane marketshare considering they release exactly ONE new phone a year.
post #48 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

In any case, it does not take fancy methodology to tell that Apple's market share is dropping: they are guiding top line down in a growing market, while not (as far as I know) drastically dropping prices.

This is a fair point.

It still begs the question of why none of these other guys provide channel data or volume data if their sales volumes and market shares are growing and as high as people say. Samsung used to report it, but not any more. In addition, this share data is inconsistent with other collateral data (e.g., web shares, app revenues, ad impressions).

The combination of these factors makes me quite suspicious.

I am willing to concede that I could be wrong, but I'd need to see actual data, not estimates (conflated with actuals).
post #49 of 67
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post
Can we agree that if the goal is iOS dominance for the next few years apple needs another iphone line with a bigger screen and/or a cheaper device?

 

Not in the slightest.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #50 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

The iPhone has become a bit boring. There hasn't been a significant (in terms of looks) redesign since the iPhone 4. iOS is looking dated, it's not that it lacks features but it's a dated mess style wise.

I dare you to say that about your wife's/girlfriend's/significant other's looks.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #51 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by mudman2 View Post

When are people going to stop reporting the crap that comes out of IDC. THEY WORK DIRECTLY FOR SAMSUNG

So does AppleInsider Staff.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #52 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

That is if Cook is not fired and Apple doesn't change it's jobsian way of doing things.

I'm sure Wall Street wasn't whining about anything 'jobsian' when they were making easy money off the AAPL cash machine.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #53 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


This is a fair point.

It still begs the question of why none of these other guys provide channel data or volume data if their sales volumes and market shares are growing and as high as people say. Samsung used to report it, but not any more. In addition, this share data is inconsistent with other collateral data (e.g., web shares, app revenues, ad impressions).

The combination of these factors makes me quite suspicious.

I am willing to concede that I could be wrong, but I'd need to see actual data, not estimates (conflated with actuals).

 

...because "Android" consists primarily of cheap low end phones, in spite of all the rubbish about Apple having to "keep up" with the Android high end.

 

People have short memories, iPhones have always been "behind" Android phones for a variety of reasons (SD cards, micro USB, screen resolution, "openness", customisation, etc) which has been the relentless and remorseless story pounded into blogs all over the Internet for years.

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Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #54 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Not in the slightest.

This forum would run better if moderators actually made arguments rather than heckles.
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post #55 of 67
These arguments are childish. Peter Openheimer referenced IDC in the conference call when he argued that Apple with a small decline in Macs outpaced the market which had a 14% yoy decline according to IDC.

Deal with the stats.

Now what should be done? Answer - a cheaper iPhone.
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post #56 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

These arguments are childish. Peter Openheimer referenced IDC in the conference call when he argued that Apple with a small decline in Macs outpaced the market which had a 14% yoy decline according to IDC.

Deal with the stats.

Now what should be done? Answer - a cheaper iPhone.

There are no 'stats' to deal with. Just guesses (for all non-Apple products) confounded with actuals (for Apple).

 

If anything is childish, it's the way they produce their data. They should at least try to be consistent and provide estimated numbers for all (with a transparent methodology). Otherwise it's not terribly believable. Not that there's a law against believing it.

post #57 of 67
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
This forum would run better if moderators actually made arguments rather than heckles.

 

Note to self: disagreeing = heckling.

 

You kids and your wacky definitions for words that have absolutely no reflection on reality.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #58 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

It still begs the question of why none of these other guys provide channel data or volume data if their sales volumes and market shares are growing and as high as people say. Samsung used to report it, but not any more.

 

Samsung traditionally never used to report sales counts.  They only started doing it a few years ago, and then later went back to their previous silence after all the lawsuits started up.  

 

Samsung does still report milestones like 5, 10, etc million sales, which helps analysts.

 

All companies keep certain details close to their chest.  Apple only recently began splitting out iOS accessory revenue from hardware revenue, for example, and do not give individual model sales because that would help the competition.

 

Quote:
 In addition, this share data is inconsistent with other collateral data (e.g., web shares, app revenues, ad impressions).

 

As has been pointed out here many times by people from all sides, web share and ad impression shares are totally useless for figuring out sales.  Too much info is lacking.  Too many unknowns are involved.  

 

Web share values totally miss people using apps, and enterprise usage, etc (e.g. thousands of airline pilots using an iPad).

 

Ad impressions especially are terrible, because they're just simple counters of ads being displayed.   What if a popular browser often reloads pages as the user navigates around a website, causing the counts to double or triple or more?  That behavior alone would heavily skew the results.

 

I mean, if you believe in ad impressions, what does this graphic say to you about GS3 and iP5 sales?

 

 

The fact is, it doesn't tell us anything about sales. Heck, it doesn't even tell us about webs share unless we also know the number of devices sold and a bunch of other user, website and browser specific details.

 

The better analysts use their own study groups, exit polls, insider info from suppliers, etc to figure out a ballpark figure for sales and model breakdowns.

 

Bear in mind that even Apple's sales numbers are flaky until the NEXT quarterly report, where we can better figure out what actual end user sell through was.

post #59 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

And who said anything about iOS, Mac, Blackberry or Apple. I did. If you are looking for the motoring forum, you are in the wrong place.

 

lol.gif

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Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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post #60 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

Samsung traditionally never used to report sales counts.  They only started doing it a few years ago, and then later went back to their previous silence after all the lawsuits started up.  

 

Samsung does still report milestones like 5, 10, etc million sales, which helps analysts.

 

All companies keep certain details close to their chest.  Apple only recently began splitting out iOS accessory revenue from hardware revenue, for example, and do not give individual model sales because that would help the competition.

 

Quote:
 In addition, this share data is inconsistent with other collateral data (e.g., web shares, app revenues, ad impressions).

 

As has been pointed out here many times by people from all sides, web share and ad impression shares are totally useless ...... blah blah...

Samsung started posting volumes, their volumes sucked (no, sorry, they were "smooth") so they stopped. Nothing much more complicated than that. Since then, all we have are guesses about everyone else other than Apple.

 

"Milestones" are worth the piece of paper they're printed on. Like Rubin's "activations." I call b-s.

 

The fact that you bring up the quality of Apple's reporting in the same breath as the rest of the industry simply confirms (for me) that you live in a world you're created for yourself.

 

As to the rest of your post, it is the usual set of talking points that are trotted out ad nauseam by trolls in this forum.

 

(Edit: Deleted incorrect data).


Edited by anantksundaram - 4/26/13 at 3:18pm
post #61 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ruel24 View Post

 
 
 

Except that Ferraris aren't superior products. They're just expensive, not better.

 

 

Excuse me, I think you have a bit of flawgic on your shoulder.

 

Let me just brush that off for you...

 

I think we desperately need to actually get you in a Ferrari after making a statement that ignores acceleration, handling, braking, and desirability to jump straight to a comment about "interior bits".

 

Men the world over!

 

It is time for you to tear down your posters of these:

 

 

...and replace them with these!

 

 

lol.gif

Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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post #62 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

 

The fact that you bring up the quality of Apple's reporting in the same breath as the rest of the industry simply confirms (for me) that you live in a world you're created for yourself.

 

His world:

 

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Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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post #63 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

I'm just guessing.

 

Fixed that for you.

Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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Apple managed the astonishing feat of getting the equivalent of a personal computer into the hands of everybody from eight to eighty year olds, and did so while providing absolutely no instructions...
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post #64 of 67
Gee what a surprise./s. Another low ball estimate from idc.
post #65 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

ok, this data deserves a nice discussion.

Apple reached the limit of what a premium 4" phone can do, and that's 4.5 billion profit per quarter (+-). If they want to earn marketshare to give more power to iOS, they need:

a) a cheaper iPhone line (like macbook air and pro);
b) a bigger screen iPhone to lure costumers away form samsung, htc and sony;
c) both a) and b), my favourite. So 3 iphone lines.

If they do not want to produce a newer cheaper iPhone, the price of the iPhone 4 has to drop at least 150 dollars. It's 3 years old, no matter how good. The iphone 4 costs 400 euros, the nexus 4? 300.
They wouldn't go after the lower end to gain shitloads of money, no one gains money from that range, they would after it to give more power to iOS as a platform.

A bigger screen iphone line should come too. Of course, some users here are stupid to understand that millions and millions find the 4" small, and are willing to pay a lot for a big screen and such iPhone line wouldn't have any impact (besides something great, like more power to iOS) to regular 4" iPhone users.

Obviously, they can keep the current model, that has been working so well. But won't iOS suffer in the long run? Macs are the best computers, OSX the best OS, but they could be better with more marketshare, for what is worth.

Apple can easily put iOS as the dominant OS for the next 10 years with 2 more iPhone lines. This, allied with the fact that income from the ecosystem is growing, is only good.

I fail to see why they wouldn't do this. They have everything now. They could more than double the number of iPhones being sold and almost double the profit per quarter. Samsung will only slow down when ZTE and Huwai go up, and LG too. The Market is far from saturation!

And please, do not talk about china mobile. That would be a temporary thing too...

I agree with some of what you said but you also have to keep in mind Apple's largest markets.

Please don't take this offensively.

Samsung large screen phones are targeted to people who only want one device or can't afford a tablet and smartphone. Also people who aren't convinced that each device can be more productive at different things.

In Apple's most important markets, many (not all) people that can afford a 4" iPhone 5 can afford to buy an iPad also. That's why Apple isn't making 5" screens.

It's Apple's analsys when trying to make a limited number of products. They can sell an iPhone and an iPad to consumers in there most profitable market rather than one 5" iPhone.

Does that make sense, I hope I explained it ok
post #66 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spacepower View Post

Samsung large screen phones are targeted to people who only want one device or can't afford a tablet and smartphone. Also people who aren't convinced that each device can be more productive at different things.

 

Us older people with lots of money and a desire to have more screen real estate, would disagree.  We often own multiple devices from different sources.  

 

To me, at least, a larger screen is more productive.

 

As for those people in the world who can only afford one device, the smartest move would seem to be to get the largest screen they can afford, in order to maximize its potential as a combination phone and tablet.


Edited by KDarling - 4/28/13 at 4:54am
post #67 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

As for those people in the world who can only afford one device, the smartest move would seem to be to get the largest screen they can afford, in order to maximize its potential as a combination phone and tablet.

Depends; if you already have a computer and only money for a smartphone OR tablet I'd go for a smartphone..because I need a phone. Certainly won't be trying to use a small tablet and then VoIP over BT to make a call. But that's just me.
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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